MACC-II: in sight of the

Copernicus Atmosphere Service Vincent-Henri.Peuch@ecmwf.int MACC-II co-ordinator

Every human…

1.5 kg

eats

14 kg

inhales

of air

2 kg

drinks

of water of food

every day.

Air is therefore an element essential for life, and a good quality of air is a fundamental need.

All the air we breathe

Is there a problem with Air Quality in Europe?

Predicted average gain in life expectancy (months) for persons of 30 years of age in 25 Aphekom cities for a decrease in average annual level of PM2.5 to 10 mg.m-3.

Compliance with WHO AQG would result in nearly 19000 premature deaths avoided per annum (15000 from cardiovascular causes) and €31.5 billions saved annually.

After climate change, air quality is the second single topic covered by Copernicus with highest economic return

on investment.

~2004

~2006

Present

Present

Transforming observations into information

Meteorological Infrastructure &

Academia

Environmental Infrastructure &

Academia

The global observing system for atmospheric composition

Ground-based stations

Airplanes Satellites

Ships

Trains

Balloons

…

SO2, GOME-2, SACS, BIRA/DLR/EUMETSAT

NO2, OMI, KNMI/NASA Aerosol Optical Depth, MODIS, NASA

CO2, GOSAT, ACOS/JAXA/NIES

A range of satellite observations for atmospheric composition

The MACC-II core production system of systems in a nutshell

Assimilation of CO observations in a global model

MOPITT CO (NASA/NCAR) IASI CO (LATMOS/ULB)

Carbon Monoxide (CO) is a tracer of combustion sources

Use of satellite data @ECMWF (monit. ~80, assim. ~55)

Surface fluxes: greenhouse gases, fires, emissions

Global atmospheric composition

http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu Online catalogue, quicklooks and data (244 individual products!)

Radiation and ozone layer

European Air Quality

The MACC-II web site

Five Service themes

Product

Catalogue

In Focus: recent highlight

Today’s

forecast and

analysis

Main menu Information about operational

systems

Product catalogue

Search criteria

based on service

themes, species,

geographic area,

etc.

Products

found

Pop-up window

with product

description

and links to

plots, data, and

validation

Copernicus = Quality

Beyond compiling data sources that have different sensitivities and errors characteristics, analyses give access to additional products such as global maps of radiative forcings. MACC-II estimates have been used for IPCC 5th report.

Copernicus = One-Stop-Shop

Copernicus = Comprehensive

Fire Radiative Power from satellite measurements

Converted to emissions (estimation of plume height, fire forecasts...)

Copernicus = Comprehensive (2)

Satellite observation of meteorology and composition (in the case of CO from MOPITT and IASI) are used for assimilation while the pollutant plumes travels in the atmosphere (one daily update)

Observations from ground or from

aircraft (here IAGOS) allow monitoring of

the forecast performance as the

event is on-going.

Qualitative comparison of NRT ceilometer observation (DWD, Soltau, Germany) with MACC-II forecasts

Copernicus = Comprehensive (3) Canadian fires 6-9 July 2013

Detailed evaluation reports are made available on a quartely basis.

Missing extreme values

Val

lad

olid

(Sp

ain

)

Aerosol climatologies do not allow correct representation of direct normal irradiance distribution

AOD monthly climatology MACC AOD daily values

Direct normal irradiance [W/m2]

SME, Bratislava, SK

Copernicus = Competitiveness

Copernicus = Innovation

Cabauw (NL)

Copernicus services = Reliable

NRT / on-line evaluation

Europe-wide, ~15 km, hourly +96h

Multi-model spread as a measure of forecast

uncertainty

120 “power users” downloading daily air

quality information

But are “coarse” (10-15km res.) forecasts useful?

London Old Street Roadside

station

Islington Arsenal Urban Background station

Certainly: “boundary” or “background” values are an essential component of AQ variability, including in cities!

Core to downstream

MACC-II (20km), Northern Europe (7km), Gulf of Finland (3km), Helsinki (Gaussian finite line source dispersion model).

PM pollution event in France (8 march- 17 March 2014)

For almost 10 days, France has

been concerned by high PM10

concentration levels, largely

exceeding the daily limit value (50

mg/m3)

The event has been accurately predicted by the

Copernicus/MACC-II system.

It has been used by French experts with the national air

quality forecasting system (PREv’AIR) to support

decision and to show the European dimension of the

event PREv’AIR forecast for 14 March 2014

“Green” scenarios

(daily forecasts)

Traffic -30%

Residential -30%

Reference

Agriculture -30%

Industry -10%

Saharan Dust making the headlines in the UK!

A team effort, which includes users and the wider community

MACC-II Policy Users workshop (Brussels, Nov. 2013)

MACC-II Open Science Conference (Brussels, Jan. 2014, Brussels): we had 165 participants.

Next MACC-II Users Workshop (Paris, to be announced, end June)

Training

Conclusions

MACC-II delivers products on the regional and global scales and is in readiness for the operational phase of Copernicus, expected to start in April 2015.

MACC-II is the effort of an entire consortium. Only a limited number of partners actually run pre-operational systems, but we rely on wider R&D activities (developments, algorithms, validation…) that are essential to maintain at the best international level, very much like it is the case for operational Numerical Weather Predictions.

MACC-II has a truly European dimension and is a key cost-effective and value-adding element in the service chain from the acquisition of observations to the service of a wide range of users.

MACC-II has the ambition of being world-leading regarding the quality of atmospheric composition forecast and re-analysis products.

In the thematic areas covered, MACC-II aims at providing its support to EU DGs, EEA, EU member states and other organizations (VACCs, National Environment Agencies and Met Services…).

Interaction with users and further service providers (downstream) is essential to us and our development plan.

Website: http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu Contact: info@atmosphere.copernicus.eu

Copernicus Atmosphere

Sentinel 1a launch (3 April 2014)