Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate , the

MACC project and its relevance to EMEP

Leonor Tarrasón

EMEP/MSC-W, met.no

9th TFMM meeting, 23-25th April 2008, Bordeaux, France

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

•A proposed pilot core GMES Atmospheric Service, pilot core GAS, funded under FP7 for 2009-2011

•Successor to the GEMS FP6 project and core elements of ESA-funded GMES Service Element project PROMOTE

•Passed evaluation thresholds with highest mark among GMES projects and is presently under contract negotiations

Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Envisaged evolution of the core GASGMES Atmospheric Service

GEMS

EC FP6 Integrated Project

2005 - 2009

Operational core GMES Atmospheric Service (GAS)

2012 - ........

MACC – Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate

Proposed EC FP7 Integrated Project

2009 - 2011

PROMOTE

ESA GMES Service Element

2004 - 2009

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

The MACC Partnership• 45 national entities

(universities, labs, environment agencies, …) from18 European States, plus ECMWF and JRC

• Partners include 11 Met Services from Member and Cooperating States of ECMWF

• Supporting organizations comprise several other national institutes, also EUMETSAT and WMO

• Adrian Simmons from ECMWF is project coordinator

ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts INTUKMET Met Office UKLMD, LA, LISA, ICARE

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique-INSU FR

CEA-LSCE Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique FRDLR Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. DEMPG Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften e. V. DEKNMI Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute NLBIRA Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy BEFMI Ilmatieteen Laitos - Finnish Meteorological Institute FIDMI Danish Meteorological Institute DKDWD Deutscher Wetterdienst DEIUP-UB University of Bremen DEUPMC-SA Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 FRNKUA National and Kapodistrian University of Athens GRMETEO-FR Météo-France - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques FRNUIG National University of Ireland, Galway IESMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute SUARPA ER ARPA Emilia Romagna ITINM Instituto Nacional de Meteorología ESMET.NO Meteorologisk Institutt NOFRIUUK Rheinisches Insti. für Umweltforschung an der Universität zu Köln DEJRC European Commission - Directorate General Joint research Centre JRCINERIS Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques FRCHMI Czech Hydrometeorological Institute CZNMA National Meteorological Administration, Romania ROPIEP Institute of Environmental Protection PLIMPERIAL Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine UKFZJ Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH DEARSO Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia SV

ARMINESAssociation pour la recherche et le développement des méthodes et processus industriels

FR

SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research NLUNIVLEEDS

University of Leeds UK

KCL King’s College London UKVU Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam NLUBA_Austria

Umweltbundesamt GmbH AT

TNO Nederlandse Organisatie voor toegepast-natuurwetenschappelijk onderzoek NLCERC Cambridge Environemental Research Consultants Ltd UKCGS Carlo Gavazzi Space S.p.A. ITFlyby Flyby s.r.l. ITCERFACS Centre Européen de Recherche et Formation avancée en Calcul Scientifique FRCNES Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales FRNILU Norsk Institutt for Luftforskning NOCNR National Research Council ITANOTHER National Environment Protection Agency

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Envisaged GAS Architecture

D ATA

SERVICES

END

USERS

OBSERVATION SUPPLY

In-situ & Space; Direct & Retrieved

GLOBAL

Monitoring & Forecasting

EUROPEAN-SCALE

Assimilation & Ensembles

Downstream Servicesincluding education and training

Other GMES Core Services

RESEARH

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Envisaged GAS Architecture

D ATA

SERVICES

END

USERS

OBSERVATION SUPPLY

In-situ & Space; Direct & Retrieved

GLOBAL

Monitoring & Forecasting

EUROPEAN-SCALE

Assimilation & Ensembles

Downstream Servicesincluding education and training

Other GMES Core Services

RESEARH

M A C C

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

The MACC Project Architecture

PRODUCTSBridge to downstream

services and other users, and products to support

health and policy services

GLOBAL

REGIONAL

OBSERVA TIONS

In-situ and satellite

data acquisition,

retrievals and pre-

processing

Fire analysis

and other emissions

Inventories Users

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

The MACC Global Data Assimilation, Production and Service Component

Downstream services

End users

Other GMES core services

ECMWF meteorological operations and

climate reanalysis

Satellite and in-situ observations;

estimates of fire and other emissions

Product display,

supply and general

web servicesMonitoring

and validation

Product generation

Globalservices

Six-month delayed mode

Reanalysis(2003-2010)

Real time

Global production

Aerosolassimilation

Greenhousegas

assimilation

Integrated analysis

and forecasting

system

Reactivegas

assimilation

Global data assimilation

GEMSpre-production analysis and

forecasting system

Greenhousegas

modelling

Other MACC global

components

Reactivegas

modelling

Aerosolmodelling

MACC

Regional AQ

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

The Regional MACC cluster

6 (+) operational assimilation and forecast systems to provide ensemble results

Regional ensemble

forecasting

Regionalair-quality

assessment

Regional data assimilation

UV and solar radiation

Global Production

Global reactive gases and aerosols

Satellite and in-situ

observations; fire and other

emissions

End users

Outreach to national

forecasting

Support to policy and

risk assessment

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Trial versions demonstratedon partner’s websites

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Regional air quality products in GEMS

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Today’s ensemble prognose for Ozone

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Met.no uses the Unified EMEP model in forecast mode for GEMS

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

www.prevair.org

Esmeralda A regional forecasting tool… From national to regional Daily modeling…

…To a chimere regional modelling.

… With local focus

A chimere daily National Forecasting,

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Analysed daily maximum maps

Ozone forecasting NO2 forecasting

Esmeralda a regional mapping tool… From national to regional Daily modelling…

improved by observed datas

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Maps of air pollution; Mixing Background and traffic

Hourly NO2 concentrations: example : 18th November 2005

Good trends for NO2 hourly meansBut night urban background under estimated (20 µg/m3)

� : Fixed sources • : AIRPARIF monitoring sites6h-7h

7h-8h

8h-9h

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Products from MACC relevant to EMEP

• Daily forecasts of global air quality (1x1) • Daily forecasts of regional air quality (0.5x0.5) for

European region• Ensemble forecasts of European air quality

• Daily forecasts of regional air pollution with source allocation

• Emergency toolbox for special risk situations

• Re-analysis of air quality status in Europe every 6-months

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Air pollution forecasting in itself is not a goal for EMEP, but it is a useful mean to:

– Investigate further how air pollution affects the weather systems

– Knowledge about pollution can improve weather forecasts

– Step towards a better understanding of climate system

– Effectively combine model data and observations

– Valuable data assimilation techniques

– Enhance the use of satellite data

and these are indeed goals of the EMEP programme…

Why is forecastingair pollution useful for EMEP ?

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

New developments: The world is turning NRT!

Proposal for MACC under GMES:

– Ensemble of RAQ models every day– Forecasting with source allocation every day– Emergency scenario responses for risk situations

– Re-analysis of status of air quality every 6 months (!)– Further integration of models, monitoring data and

reduction of uncertainties

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

How should the EMEP community contribute?

FAQ to EMEP

• Why does it take 2 years to get the EMEP meausurements ? Can we get the measurement data earlier?

• Why EMEP reports are always 2 years arrears ?• Can we get the SR data earlier?• Now that the emission data is in the WebDab, can we

get the data earlier that from 2-years arrears?

• .... EEA ozone reports are available after 6 months – National reports on PM exceedances are available after 1

year User groups in GEMS require status reports every 6

months

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

A key point isquality and reliability

of the results

Quality assurance takes time !Still, we need to find ways to secure the

rapid delivery (RD) of EMEP data

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

How to improve the timeliness of EMEP results keeping its

quality?

• How can we provide information on the status of transboundary air pollution before 2 years?

• What are the limitations at the EMEP modelling centers (MSC-E and MSC-W) ?

• What are the limitations at CCC ?• What actions should be proposed to

compile monitoring data from countries within a shorter time frame than 2 years?

• What actions can be proposed for countries to deliver emission data more often?