MACC-II Prototype Atmospheric Service
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Transcript of MACC-II Prototype Atmospheric Service
Every human…
1.5 kg
eats
14 kg
inhales
of air
2 kg
drinks
of water of food
every day.
Air is therefore an element essential for life, and a good quality of air is a fundamental need.
All the air we breathe
Is there a problem with Air Quality in Europe?
Predicted average gain in life expectancy (months) for persons of 30 years of age in 25 Aphekom cities for a decrease in average annual level of PM2.5 to 10 mg.m-3.
Compliance with WHO AQG would result in nearly 19000 premature deaths avoided per annum (15000 from cardiovascular causes) and €31.5 billions saved annually.
After climate change, air quality is the second single topic covered by Copernicus with highest economic return
on investment.
~2004
~2006
Present
Present
Transforming observations into information
Meteorological Infrastructure &
Academia
Environmental Infrastructure &
Academia
The global observing system for atmospheric composition
Ground-based stations
Airplanes Satellites
Ships
Trains
Balloons
…
SO2, GOME-2, SACS, BIRA/DLR/EUMETSAT
NO2, OMI, KNMI/NASA Aerosol Optical Depth, MODIS, NASA
CO2, GOSAT, ACOS/JAXA/NIES
A range of satellite observations for atmospheric composition
The MACC-II core production system of systems in a nutshell
Assimilation of CO observations in a global model
MOPITT CO (NASA/NCAR) IASI CO (LATMOS/ULB)
Carbon Monoxide (CO) is a tracer of combustion sources
Use of satellite data @ECMWF (monit. ~80, assim. ~55)
Surface fluxes: greenhouse gases, fires, emissions
Global atmospheric composition
http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu Online catalogue, quicklooks and data (244 individual products!)
Radiation and ozone layer
European Air Quality
The MACC-II web site
Five Service themes
Product
Catalogue
In Focus: recent highlight
Today’s
forecast and
analysis
Main menu Information about operational
systems
Product catalogue
Search criteria
based on service
themes, species,
geographic area,
etc.
Products
found
Pop-up window
with product
description
and links to
plots, data, and
validation
Copernicus = Quality
Beyond compiling data sources that have different sensitivities and errors characteristics, analyses give access to additional products such as global maps of radiative forcings. MACC-II estimates have been used for IPCC 5th report.
Copernicus = One-Stop-Shop
Copernicus = Comprehensive
Fire Radiative Power from satellite measurements
Converted to emissions (estimation of plume height, fire forecasts...)
Copernicus = Comprehensive (2)
Satellite observation of meteorology and composition (in the case of CO from MOPITT and IASI) are used for assimilation while the pollutant plumes travels in the atmosphere (one daily update)
Observations from ground or from
aircraft (here IAGOS) allow monitoring of
the forecast performance as the
event is on-going.
Qualitative comparison of NRT ceilometer observation (DWD, Soltau, Germany) with MACC-II forecasts
Copernicus = Comprehensive (3) Canadian fires 6-9 July 2013
Detailed evaluation reports are made available on a quartely basis.
Missing extreme values
Val
lad
olid
(Sp
ain
)
Aerosol climatologies do not allow correct representation of direct normal irradiance distribution
AOD monthly climatology MACC AOD daily values
Direct normal irradiance [W/m2]
SME, Bratislava, SK
Copernicus = Competitiveness
Copernicus = Innovation
Cabauw (NL)
Copernicus services = Reliable
NRT / on-line evaluation
Europe-wide, ~15 km, hourly +96h
Multi-model spread as a measure of forecast
uncertainty
120 “power users” downloading daily air
quality information
But are “coarse” (10-15km res.) forecasts useful?
London Old Street Roadside
station
Islington Arsenal Urban Background station
Certainly: “boundary” or “background” values are an essential component of AQ variability, including in cities!
Core to downstream
MACC-II (20km), Northern Europe (7km), Gulf of Finland (3km), Helsinki (Gaussian finite line source dispersion model).
PM pollution event in France (8 march- 17 March 2014)
For almost 10 days, France has
been concerned by high PM10
concentration levels, largely
exceeding the daily limit value (50
mg/m3)
The event has been accurately predicted by the
Copernicus/MACC-II system.
It has been used by French experts with the national air
quality forecasting system (PREv’AIR) to support
decision and to show the European dimension of the
event PREv’AIR forecast for 14 March 2014
“Green” scenarios
(daily forecasts)
Traffic -30%
Residential -30%
Reference
Agriculture -30%
Industry -10%
Saharan Dust making the headlines in the UK!
A team effort, which includes users and the wider community
MACC-II Policy Users workshop (Brussels, Nov. 2013)
MACC-II Open Science Conference (Brussels, Jan. 2014, Brussels): we had 165 participants.
Next MACC-II Users Workshop (Paris, to be announced, end June)
Training
Conclusions
MACC-II delivers products on the regional and global scales and is in readiness for the operational phase of Copernicus, expected to start in April 2015.
MACC-II is the effort of an entire consortium. Only a limited number of partners actually run pre-operational systems, but we rely on wider R&D activities (developments, algorithms, validation…) that are essential to maintain at the best international level, very much like it is the case for operational Numerical Weather Predictions.
MACC-II has a truly European dimension and is a key cost-effective and value-adding element in the service chain from the acquisition of observations to the service of a wide range of users.
MACC-II has the ambition of being world-leading regarding the quality of atmospheric composition forecast and re-analysis products.
In the thematic areas covered, MACC-II aims at providing its support to EU DGs, EEA, EU member states and other organizations (VACCs, National Environment Agencies and Met Services…).
Interaction with users and further service providers (downstream) is essential to us and our development plan.
Website: http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu Contact: [email protected]
Copernicus Atmosphere
Sentinel 1a launch (3 April 2014)
