Post on 14-Dec-2015
The Weather and Climate Authority
EL NIÑO UPDATE & Climate Outlook
(September 2015 – February 2016)
Prepared by: Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD) Updated: 28 August 2015
Presented by: Anthony Joseph R. Lucero OIC, CLIMPS
Updates on El Niño
Monthly Rainfall Forecast, Temperature and Tropical Cyclone Forecast (September 2015– February 2016)
Dry Spell/Drought Outlook
Summary
CONTENTS
INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION CENTERS
SUMMARY
As of: 15 June 2015
The tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean are currently at moderate El Niño levels.
The majority of ENSO climate models suggest that tropical temperatures are likely to continue warming, and possibly reach strong El Niño levels in the coming months.
CPC/ International Research Institute (IRI) As of : 20 August 2015
El Niño strengthened further to a strong level beginning around mid-July;
The chance of El Niño is greater than 90% through Northern Hemisphere winter and is near 70% through spring (Mar-Apr-May) 2016.
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)-Australia As of : 18 August 2015
Mature El Niño in the tropical Pacific region All surveyed models indicate that El Niño will continue to
strengthen, and persist into early 2016.
Tokyo Climate Center/JMA -Japan As of : 10 August 2015
El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific. It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until the Northern
Hemisphere winter (DJF 2015/16).
APEC Climate Center, Busan, S. Korea As of : 25 August 2015
further strengthening of the El Niño, with the peak of Nino3.4 index being expected during the last quarter of 2015;
Positive SST anomalies in the CEEP are expected to be enhanced through February 2016
ADVISORIES GLOBAL
Strong El Niño is now in progress in the tropical Pacific!
Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution
The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Niño 4 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 2.1ºC
Niño 3 2.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.7ºC
As of Aug. 24, 2015
0.9ºC
2.0ºC
2.2ºC
2.0ºC
As of Aug. 17
CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 24 August 2015
The chance of El Niño is greater than 90% through 2nd quarter (MAM) 2016
and is near 70% through AMJ 2016.
IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook
Figure provided by the International Research
Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
(updated 14 July 2015).
Almost all of the models
indicate Niño 3.4 SST
anomalies will remain
greater than or equal to
+0.5ºC through spring 2016.
All multi-model averages
suggest that Niño 3.4 will be
above +1.5ºC (a “strong” El
Niño) during late 2015 into
early 2016.
About our Rainfall Maps…
For: RAINFALL OUTLOOK (September 2015 – February 2016)
CLIMATE OUTLOOK (SEPTEMBER 2015 – FEBRUARY 2016)
Updated: August 28, 2015
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD
(Sep 2015-February 2016)
SEPTEMBER 2015
• Southwest (SW) Monsoon
• Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
• Low Pressure Area (LPA)
• Ridge of High Pressure Area
• Tropical Cyclones
OCTOBER* - FEBRUARY 2016
• *Transition – SW to Northeast (NE) Monsoon
• NE Monsoon
• Tail-end of Cold Front
• Easterly wave
• Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
• Low Pressure Area (LPA)
• Ridge of High Pressure Area
• Tropical Cyclones
September 2015
Forecast (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
Monthly Rainfall Forecast
October 2015
Forecast (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
Monthly Rainfall Forecast
November 2015
Forecast (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
Monthly Rainfall Forecast
December 2015
Forecast (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
Monthly Rainfall Forecast
January 2016
Forecast (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
Monthly Rainfall Forecast
February 2016
Forecast (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL OUTLOOK (SEPTEMBER 2015 – FEBRUARY 2016)
Dry conditions will likely affect most parts of country
starting September 2015.
PROVINCE SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY PROVINCE SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARYCORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
ABRA 65.7 75.4 42.9 3.5 4.5 51.4 AKLAN 54.3 19.0 21.1 23.4 20.6 34.0
BENGUET 92.1 16.7 90.6 5.3 5.8 68.0 ANTIQUE 56.9 18.0 28.7 20.6 7.3 31.2
IFUGAO 119.5 15.3 97.2 2.2 14.7 102.6 CAPIZ 64.3 19.1 29.0 28.2 24.0 33.2
KALINGA 73.5 64.5 68.9 4.8 11.8 64.6 GUIMARAS 65.1 28.6 48.6 30.8 5.7 33.4
APAYAO 44.3 106.6 67.0 17.7 27.4 49.4 ILOILO 63.6 22.8 38.1 28.5 13.6 33.5
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 100.1 32.8 94.2 1.8 9.7 97.7 NEGROS ISLAND REGION
REGION I NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 67.3 39.3 47.9 39.2 16.9 30.8
ILOCOS NORTE 34.1 115.3 67.4 8.7 8.3 15.3 NEGROS ORIENTAL 81.9 35.3 50.3 34.0 16.8 42.4
ILOCOS SUR 63.3 37.1 69.4 5.0 1.9 64.9 REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
LA UNION 30.0 32.8 60.2 0.7 2.8 41.8 BOHOL 64.0 73.3 51.1 53.8 8.6 38.0
PANGASINAN 56.7 15.2 26.2 9.8 10.9 1.9 CEBU 55.9 56.7 43.2 47.0 28.4 40.3
REGION II SIQUIJOR 91.8 61.8 53.0 43.2 13.8 41.2
BATANES 66.6 44.5 54.8 133.8 133.7 72.5 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
CAGAYAN 27.1 95.2 50.2 53.2 54.9 43.7 BILIRAN 56.6 41.6 67.9 65.9 24.2 40.0
ISABELA 42.4 39.3 39.1 30.6 38.7 30.5 EASTERN SAMAR 58.8 47.5 50.6 37.6 17.7 29.6
NUEVA VIZCAYA 115.3 3.4 62.4 8.2 22.2 56.1 LEYTE 56.5 39.3 56.3 65.8 36.2 43.4
QUIRINO 91.7 13.6 55.2 20.6 43.0 66.7 NORTHERN SAMAR 59.1 22.6 72.0 59.6 5.0 30.2
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 58.9 42.9 63.9 54.4 15.7 31.3
BATAAN 55.8 9.5 41.6 21.7 67.0 5.9 SOUTHERN LEYTE 64.1 44.3 59.2 69.0 21.7 46.4
BULACAN 47.1 24.1 56.0 17.5 5.0 12.7 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
NUEVA ECIJA 51.8 11.0 44.4 11.4 8.8 6.7 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 57.1 31.2 52.2 57.3 28.5 46.1
PAMPANGA 49.3 10.7 52.3 17.9 26.2 2.2 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 47.9 36.0 55.0 60.1 35.0 47.7
TARLAC 64.5 7.1 53.9 14.6 18.9 0.1 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 48.1 26.6 54.4 56.8 32.8 51.3
ZAMBALES 59.7 12.6 52.1 15.1 44.7 1.5 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
AURORA 58.5 27.9 62.3 30.7 45.5 56.5 BUKIDNON 83.1 93.5 64.8 45.6 42.8 75.3
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION CAMIGUIN 87.1 98.8 47.1 62.9 0.3 33.1
METRO MANILA 50.9 29.5 29.3 8.3 13.2 27.4 LANAO DEL NORTE 70.7 79.7 41.5 58.6 37.2 34.4
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 67.8 66.5 49.3 65.6 30.9 31.8
BATANGAS 91.5 7.7 71.7 55.0 54.0 41.6 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 89.0 105.7 46.5 59.1 16.3 43.3
CAVITE 66.6 14.3 32.2 26.1 55.8 25.2 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
LAGUNA 58.1 28.9 28.8 16.7 30.1 38.8 CAMPOSTELA VALLEY 76.8 73.3 88.7 69.6 48.2 91.3
RIZAL 54.9 41.6 44.0 14.7 2.9 33.5 DAVAO 79.8 83.3 91.5 55.6 46.7 95.3
QUEZON 75.2 40.1 55.2 39.4 53.2 58.1 DAVAO DEL SUR 83.6 87.0 74.0 51.4 47.4 67.2
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) DAVAO ORIENTAL 82.5 71.9 78.9 76.9 51.5 78.7
MARINDUQUE 66.0 26.6 33.2 32.4 63.2 57.3 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 63.0 11.6 34.2 28.0 36.0 31.6 SOUTH COTABATO 47.7 58.4 68.9 48.5 51.6 59.7
ORIENTAL MINDORO 46.3 18.4 26.0 23.0 36.7 39.9 COTABATO 73.6 81.2 71.6 41.6 54.2 74.5
ROMBLON 45.1 30.4 29.6 35.5 31.9 42.7 SARANGANI 54.7 63.2 64.7 54.3 47.3 52.1
PALAWAN 71.3 45.4 40.0 17.7 14.0 10.8 SULTAN KUDARAT 36.3 48.4 75.0 45.5 56.8 69.0
REGION V (BICOL) REGION XIII- CARAGA
ALBAY 75.7 29.7 60.6 52.2 51.4 41.0 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 62.7 81.6 94.8 76.9 13.3 84.1
CAMARINES NORTE 70.4 18.2 61.4 46.5 60.8 54.9 AGUSAN DEL SUR 65.0 73.8 91.4 71.3 34.7 92.5
CAMARINES SUR 67.2 20.4 59.2 47.2 53.8 45.7 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 80.4 75.0 85.0 85.8 30.5 78.7
CATANDUANES 40.1 18.4 61.1 39.9 26.2 50.0 SURIGAO DEL SUR 70.3 66.6 84.1 89.1 39.6 82.9
MASBATE 77.5 26.3 65.5 49.6 13.9 37.2 ARMM
SORSOGON 74.6 21.7 68.6 56.6 31.0 40.9 BASILAN 48.1 24.2 34.5 45.1 22.7 54.7
MAGUINDANAO 41.6 53.8 72.9 44.1 57.5 71.5
LANAO DEL SUR 72.5 83.4 45.8 49.7 44.6 47.7
SULU 49.4 24.7 30.3 37.1 17.9 54.0
Forecast Rainfall Analysis in %N (September-February 2015-16)
DRY SPELL & DROUGHT OUTLOOK
(SEPTEMBER 2015 – FEBRUARY 2016)
Updated: August 28, 2015
Dry Condition/Dry spell / drought assessment and Outlook
Dry condition – two (2) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions Dry spell = three (3) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions Or two (2) consecutive months of way below normal (more than 60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions. Drought - three (3) consecutive months of way below normal (>60% reduction from average) or five (5) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average) rainfall condition.
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES SEPTEMBER 2015
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
LUZON (9) PANGASINAN, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, METRO MANILA, CAVITE, ROMBLON
VISAYAS (3) CAPIZ, CEBU
MINDANAO (1) NORTH COTABATO
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL
LUZON (5) BATANES, ISABELA, CAMARINES SUR, MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS (5) E. SAMAR, LEYTE, N. SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), S. LEYTE
MINDANAO (11)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, COMPOSTELA VALLEY, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE SURIGAO DEL SUR, BASILAN MAGUINDANAO, SULU
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT
LUZON (5) AURORA, LAGUNA, QUEZON, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES
VISAYAS (1) BOHOL
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF YEAR 2015
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
LUZON (3) APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, CAGAYAN
MINDANAO (6) BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, MISAMIS ORIENTAL,DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL
LUZON (7) ABRA, KALINGA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO BATANGAS, PALAWAN, ALBAY
VISAYAS (3) NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN
MINDANAO (4) ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, LANAO DEL NORTE, DAVAO ORIENTAL
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT
LUZON (25) ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL, MINDORO, ROMBLON, CAMARINES NORTE,CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES,MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS (13) AKLAN,ANTIQUE,CAPIZ,GUIMARAS,ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL,BOHOL,CEBU,EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE,NORTHERN SAMAR,SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE
MINDANAO (8)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL. SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF FEBRUARY 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
MINDANAO (1) SURIGAO DEL NORTE
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL
LUZON (2) BENGUET, CAGAYAN
MINDANAO (4) BUKIDNON, DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT
LUZON (35) ABRA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS (16) AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS,ILOILO NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR),SOUTHERN LEYTE
MINDANAO (14)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO ORIENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU
September 2015-February 2016
How severe?
*Assessment is based on the deviation of forecast dryness or wetness from normal at a given time scale
Central Luzon, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, MIMAROPA, Panay Island, Negros
Occidental, Cebu, Leyte, Zamboanga Provinces, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-tawi, parts of Quezon, mainland Cagayan Valley,
and mainland ARMM
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS in NCR & Biliran
SEVERITY OF DROUGHT*
EXTREME DRUGHT
SEVERE DROUGHT
MODERATE DROUGHT
SEVERITY OF DROUGHT September 2015 – February 2016
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes in (mm) and (%N)
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS SEP 2015-FEB. 2016 in (mm) and (%N)
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE (Sept.- Oct. 2015)
Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer Lowland Visayas – Near average Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer Mountainous Mindanao – Slightly cooler
Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler (15-22oC)
Lowland Luzon –Near average (20-32oC)
Lowland Visayas – Slightly warmer (22.5-33oC)
Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer (22.5-33oC)
Mountainous Mindanao – Near average (18-29.5oC)
FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE (Nov. – Dec. 2015)
Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler (15-23.5oC)
Lowland Luzon –Slightly warmer (20-33.5oC)
Lowland Visayas – Slightly warmer (22.5-33oC)
Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer (23-33oC)
Mountainous Mindanao – Near average (17-30oC)
Mountainous Luzon – Near average (14.5-23.5oC)
Lowland Luzon –Slightly warmer (17.5-33.5oC)
Lowland Visayas – Slightly warmer (23-32oC)
Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer (22.5-33.5oC)
Mountainous Mindanao – Slightly warmer (17.5-30.5oC)
FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE ( January 2016)
Mountainous Luzon – slightly cooler Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer Lowland Visayas – Slightly warmer Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer Mountainous Mindanao – Near average
DRY DAYS FORECAST
MONTH ARMM CAR NCR NIR R01 R02 R03 R04-A R04-B R05 R06 R07 R08 R09 R10 R11 R12 R13
SEP 22 13 6 19 9 18 8 16 22 23 23 24 25 23 20 24 23 22
OCT 22 23 24 21 25 22 25 22 23 20 21 21 17 22 18 22 23 17
NOV 24 25 27 24 28 19 27 19 23 15 22 23 14 20 22 21 23 17
DEC 27 28 30 26 31 24 29 20 25 16 25 24 14 24 24 23 27 16
JAN2016 30 30 29 29 31 25 28 22 28 20 30 27 18 28 27 24 28 17
DRY DAY – a day with 1 mm or less
MONTH Forecast
September 2 to 4
October 2 or 3
November 1 or 2
December 0 or 1
January 0 or 1
February 0 or 1
Tropical Cyclone FORECAST
Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)
SUMMARY
Consensus ENSO prediction indicate continuation of strong El Niño conditions during the August-October 2015 season in progress, with the event lasting into MAM 2016.
Significant reduction in rainfall is predicted beginning September 2015 to February 2016 over most parts of the country;
Moderate to severe drought conditions will be likely during the forecast period;
Slightly warmer than average temperature is expected during the forecast period; slightly cooler than average over mountainous Luzon;
5-8 tropical cyclones may develop/enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) until Feb. 2016;
SUMMARY Drought / Dry Spell Outlook for September 2015 as of 25 August 2015 rainfall
assessment:
o 13 provinces likely to experience dry condition;
o 21 provinces likely to experience dry spell;
o 6 provinces likely to experience drought
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES SEPTEMBER 2015
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
LUZON (9) PANGASINAN, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, METRO MANILA, CAVITE, ROMBLON
VISAYAS (3) CAPIZ, CEBU
MINDANAO (1) NORTH COTABATO
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL
LUZON (5) BATANES, ISABELA, CAMARINES SUR, MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS (5) E. SAMAR, LEYTE, N. SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), S. LEYTE
MINDANAO (11) ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, COMPOSTELA VALLEY, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT
LUZON (5) AURORA, LAGUNA, QUEZON, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES
VISAYAS (1) BOHOL
SUMMARY Drought / Dry Spell Outlook at the end of Dec. 2015
o 9 provinces likely to experience dry condition;
o 14 provinces likely to experience dry spell;
o 46 provinces likely to experience drought
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF YEAR 2015
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
LUZON (3) APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, CAGAYAN
MINDANAO (6) BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, MISAMIS ORIENTAL,DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL
LUZON (7) ABRA, KALINGA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATANGAS, PALAWAN, ALBAY
VISAYAS (3) NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN
MINDANAO (4) ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, LANAO DEL NORTE, DAVAO ORIENTAL
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT
LUZON (25) ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL, MINDORO, ROMBLON, CAMARINES NORTE,CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS (13) AKLAN,ANTIQUE,CAPIZ,GUIMARAS,ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL,BOHOL,CEBU,EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR,SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE
MINDANAO (8)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL. SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU
SUMMARY Drought / Dry Spell Outlook at the end of forecast period (Feb. 2016)
o 2 provinces likely to experience dry condition;
o 1 province likely to experience dry spell;
o 65 provinces likely to experience drought, some of which might suffer moderate to severe drought.
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF FEBRUARY 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
MINDANAO (1) SURIGAO DEL NORTE
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL
LUZON (2) BENGUET, CAGAYAN
MINDANAO (4) BUKIDNON, DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT
LUZON (35) ABRA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS (16) AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS,ILOILO NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR),SOUTHERN LEYTE
MINDANAO (14)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO ORIENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU
Use water wisely!
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the situation and
updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate.
The Weather and Climate Authority
MARAMING SALAMAT!
55
Last Three Month SST, OLR and 925hp Wind Anom.
- Positive SSTA strengthened and extended from the South American coast line to the central equatorial Pacific in the last three months.
- From May to July, negative OLR anomalies persisted over the central and eastern Pacific and westerly low-level winds prevailed across most of the equatorial Pacific.
56
SST,D20 and 925hp
Wind anomalies in July
1982 1997 2015
MJJ 2015
MJJ 1997
MJJ 1982
Actual Rainfall in mm. & % of Normal for Nov 2014 – June 2015
Actual Rainfall
Observed (mm) % Normal
Normal RR(mm)
(1981-2010)
Actual Rainfall for July 2015
Actual Rainfall
Observed (mm) % Normal
Normal RR(mm)
(1981-2010)
Actual Rainfall for August 1-25, 2015