climateoutlook (1).pdf

The Weather and Climate Authority

EL NIÑO UPDATE & Climate Outlook

(September 2015 – February 2016)

Prepared by: Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD) Updated: 28 August 2015

Presented by: Anthony Joseph R. Lucero OIC, CLIMPS

Updates on El Niño

Monthly Rainfall Forecast, Temperature and Tropical Cyclone Forecast (September 2015– February 2016)

Dry Spell/Drought Outlook

Summary

CONTENTS

INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION CENTERS

SUMMARY

As of: 15 June 2015

The tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean are currently at moderate El Niño levels.

The majority of ENSO climate models suggest that tropical temperatures are likely to continue warming, and possibly reach strong El Niño levels in the coming months.

CPC/ International Research Institute (IRI) As of : 20 August 2015

El Niño strengthened further to a strong level beginning around mid-July;

The chance of El Niño is greater than 90% through Northern Hemisphere winter and is near 70% through spring (Mar-Apr-May) 2016.

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)-Australia As of : 18 August 2015

Mature El Niño in the tropical Pacific region All surveyed models indicate that El Niño will continue to

strengthen, and persist into early 2016.

Tokyo Climate Center/JMA -Japan As of : 10 August 2015

El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific. It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until the Northern

Hemisphere winter (DJF 2015/16).

APEC Climate Center, Busan, S. Korea As of : 25 August 2015

further strengthening of the El Niño, with the peak of Nino3.4 index being expected during the last quarter of 2015;

Positive SST anomalies in the CEEP are expected to be enhanced through February 2016

ADVISORIES GLOBAL

Strong El Niño is now in progress in the tropical Pacific!

Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution

The latest weekly SST

departures are:

Niño 4 1.1ºC

Niño 3.4 2.1ºC

Niño 3 2.2ºC

Niño 1+2 1.7ºC

As of Aug. 24, 2015

0.9ºC

2.0ºC

2.2ºC

2.0ºC

As of Aug. 17

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook

Updated: 24 August 2015

The chance of El Niño is greater than 90% through 2nd quarter (MAM) 2016

and is near 70% through AMJ 2016.

IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook

Figure provided by the International Research

Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society

(updated 14 July 2015).

Almost all of the models

indicate Niño 3.4 SST

anomalies will remain

greater than or equal to

+0.5ºC through spring 2016.

All multi-model averages

suggest that Niño 3.4 will be

above +1.5ºC (a “strong” El

Niño) during late 2015 into

early 2016.

About our Rainfall Maps…

For: RAINFALL OUTLOOK (September 2015 – February 2016)

CLIMATE OUTLOOK (SEPTEMBER 2015 – FEBRUARY 2016)

Updated: August 28, 2015

WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD

(Sep 2015-February 2016)

SEPTEMBER 2015

• Southwest (SW) Monsoon

• Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

• Low Pressure Area (LPA)

• Ridge of High Pressure Area

• Tropical Cyclones

OCTOBER* - FEBRUARY 2016

• *Transition – SW to Northeast (NE) Monsoon

• NE Monsoon

• Tail-end of Cold Front

• Easterly wave

• Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

• Low Pressure Area (LPA)

• Ridge of High Pressure Area

• Tropical Cyclones

September 2015

Forecast (mm) % Normal

Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

October 2015


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)


November 2015


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)


December 2015


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)


January 2016


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)


February 2016


Normal (mm)

(1981-2010)


RAINFALL OUTLOOK (SEPTEMBER 2015 – FEBRUARY 2016)

Dry conditions will likely affect most parts of country

starting September 2015.

PROVINCE SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY PROVINCE SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARYCORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)

ABRA 65.7 75.4 42.9 3.5 4.5 51.4 AKLAN 54.3 19.0 21.1 23.4 20.6 34.0

BENGUET 92.1 16.7 90.6 5.3 5.8 68.0 ANTIQUE 56.9 18.0 28.7 20.6 7.3 31.2

IFUGAO 119.5 15.3 97.2 2.2 14.7 102.6 CAPIZ 64.3 19.1 29.0 28.2 24.0 33.2

KALINGA 73.5 64.5 68.9 4.8 11.8 64.6 GUIMARAS 65.1 28.6 48.6 30.8 5.7 33.4

APAYAO 44.3 106.6 67.0 17.7 27.4 49.4 ILOILO 63.6 22.8 38.1 28.5 13.6 33.5

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 100.1 32.8 94.2 1.8 9.7 97.7 NEGROS ISLAND REGION

REGION I NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 67.3 39.3 47.9 39.2 16.9 30.8

ILOCOS NORTE 34.1 115.3 67.4 8.7 8.3 15.3 NEGROS ORIENTAL 81.9 35.3 50.3 34.0 16.8 42.4

ILOCOS SUR 63.3 37.1 69.4 5.0 1.9 64.9 REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)

LA UNION 30.0 32.8 60.2 0.7 2.8 41.8 BOHOL 64.0 73.3 51.1 53.8 8.6 38.0

PANGASINAN 56.7 15.2 26.2 9.8 10.9 1.9 CEBU 55.9 56.7 43.2 47.0 28.4 40.3

REGION II SIQUIJOR 91.8 61.8 53.0 43.2 13.8 41.2

BATANES 66.6 44.5 54.8 133.8 133.7 72.5 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)

CAGAYAN 27.1 95.2 50.2 53.2 54.9 43.7 BILIRAN 56.6 41.6 67.9 65.9 24.2 40.0

ISABELA 42.4 39.3 39.1 30.6 38.7 30.5 EASTERN SAMAR 58.8 47.5 50.6 37.6 17.7 29.6

NUEVA VIZCAYA 115.3 3.4 62.4 8.2 22.2 56.1 LEYTE 56.5 39.3 56.3 65.8 36.2 43.4

QUIRINO 91.7 13.6 55.2 20.6 43.0 66.7 NORTHERN SAMAR 59.1 22.6 72.0 59.6 5.0 30.2

REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 58.9 42.9 63.9 54.4 15.7 31.3

BATAAN 55.8 9.5 41.6 21.7 67.0 5.9 SOUTHERN LEYTE 64.1 44.3 59.2 69.0 21.7 46.4

BULACAN 47.1 24.1 56.0 17.5 5.0 12.7 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)

NUEVA ECIJA 51.8 11.0 44.4 11.4 8.8 6.7 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 57.1 31.2 52.2 57.3 28.5 46.1

PAMPANGA 49.3 10.7 52.3 17.9 26.2 2.2 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 47.9 36.0 55.0 60.1 35.0 47.7

TARLAC 64.5 7.1 53.9 14.6 18.9 0.1 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 48.1 26.6 54.4 56.8 32.8 51.3

ZAMBALES 59.7 12.6 52.1 15.1 44.7 1.5 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)

AURORA 58.5 27.9 62.3 30.7 45.5 56.5 BUKIDNON 83.1 93.5 64.8 45.6 42.8 75.3

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION CAMIGUIN 87.1 98.8 47.1 62.9 0.3 33.1

METRO MANILA 50.9 29.5 29.3 8.3 13.2 27.4 LANAO DEL NORTE 70.7 79.7 41.5 58.6 37.2 34.4

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 67.8 66.5 49.3 65.6 30.9 31.8

BATANGAS 91.5 7.7 71.7 55.0 54.0 41.6 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 89.0 105.7 46.5 59.1 16.3 43.3

CAVITE 66.6 14.3 32.2 26.1 55.8 25.2 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)

LAGUNA 58.1 28.9 28.8 16.7 30.1 38.8 CAMPOSTELA VALLEY 76.8 73.3 88.7 69.6 48.2 91.3

RIZAL 54.9 41.6 44.0 14.7 2.9 33.5 DAVAO 79.8 83.3 91.5 55.6 46.7 95.3

QUEZON 75.2 40.1 55.2 39.4 53.2 58.1 DAVAO DEL SUR 83.6 87.0 74.0 51.4 47.4 67.2

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) DAVAO ORIENTAL 82.5 71.9 78.9 76.9 51.5 78.7

MARINDUQUE 66.0 26.6 33.2 32.4 63.2 57.3 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 63.0 11.6 34.2 28.0 36.0 31.6 SOUTH COTABATO 47.7 58.4 68.9 48.5 51.6 59.7

ORIENTAL MINDORO 46.3 18.4 26.0 23.0 36.7 39.9 COTABATO 73.6 81.2 71.6 41.6 54.2 74.5

ROMBLON 45.1 30.4 29.6 35.5 31.9 42.7 SARANGANI 54.7 63.2 64.7 54.3 47.3 52.1

PALAWAN 71.3 45.4 40.0 17.7 14.0 10.8 SULTAN KUDARAT 36.3 48.4 75.0 45.5 56.8 69.0

REGION V (BICOL) REGION XIII- CARAGA

ALBAY 75.7 29.7 60.6 52.2 51.4 41.0 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 62.7 81.6 94.8 76.9 13.3 84.1

CAMARINES NORTE 70.4 18.2 61.4 46.5 60.8 54.9 AGUSAN DEL SUR 65.0 73.8 91.4 71.3 34.7 92.5

CAMARINES SUR 67.2 20.4 59.2 47.2 53.8 45.7 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 80.4 75.0 85.0 85.8 30.5 78.7

CATANDUANES 40.1 18.4 61.1 39.9 26.2 50.0 SURIGAO DEL SUR 70.3 66.6 84.1 89.1 39.6 82.9

MASBATE 77.5 26.3 65.5 49.6 13.9 37.2 ARMM

SORSOGON 74.6 21.7 68.6 56.6 31.0 40.9 BASILAN 48.1 24.2 34.5 45.1 22.7 54.7

MAGUINDANAO 41.6 53.8 72.9 44.1 57.5 71.5

LANAO DEL SUR 72.5 83.4 45.8 49.7 44.6 47.7

SULU 49.4 24.7 30.3 37.1 17.9 54.0

Forecast Rainfall Analysis in %N (September-February 2015-16)

DRY SPELL & DROUGHT OUTLOOK

(SEPTEMBER 2015 – FEBRUARY 2016)

Updated: August 28, 2015

Dry Condition/Dry spell / drought assessment and Outlook

Dry condition – two (2) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions Dry spell = three (3) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions Or two (2) consecutive months of way below normal (more than 60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions. Drought - three (3) consecutive months of way below normal (>60% reduction from average) or five (5) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average) rainfall condition.

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES SEPTEMBER 2015

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION

LUZON (9) PANGASINAN, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, METRO MANILA, CAVITE, ROMBLON

VISAYAS (3) CAPIZ, CEBU

MINDANAO (1) NORTH COTABATO

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL

LUZON (5) BATANES, ISABELA, CAMARINES SUR, MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (5) E. SAMAR, LEYTE, N. SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), S. LEYTE

MINDANAO (11)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, COMPOSTELA VALLEY, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE SURIGAO DEL SUR, BASILAN MAGUINDANAO, SULU

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT

LUZON (5) AURORA, LAGUNA, QUEZON, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES

VISAYAS (1) BOHOL

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF YEAR 2015


LUZON (3) APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, CAGAYAN

MINDANAO (6) BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, MISAMIS ORIENTAL,DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR


LUZON (7) ABRA, KALINGA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO BATANGAS, PALAWAN, ALBAY

VISAYAS (3) NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN

MINDANAO (4) ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, LANAO DEL NORTE, DAVAO ORIENTAL


LUZON (25) ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL, MINDORO, ROMBLON, CAMARINES NORTE,CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES,MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (13) AKLAN,ANTIQUE,CAPIZ,GUIMARAS,ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL,BOHOL,CEBU,EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE,NORTHERN SAMAR,SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO (8)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL. SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF FEBRUARY 2016


MINDANAO (1) SURIGAO DEL NORTE


LUZON (2) BENGUET, CAGAYAN

MINDANAO (4) BUKIDNON, DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR


LUZON (35) ABRA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (16) AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS,ILOILO NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR),SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO (14)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO ORIENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU

September 2015-February 2016

How severe?

*Assessment is based on the deviation of forecast dryness or wetness from normal at a given time scale

Central Luzon, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, MIMAROPA, Panay Island, Negros

Occidental, Cebu, Leyte, Zamboanga Provinces, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-tawi, parts of Quezon, mainland Cagayan Valley,

and mainland ARMM

SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS in NCR & Biliran

SEVERITY OF DROUGHT*

EXTREME DRUGHT

SEVERE DROUGHT

MODERATE DROUGHT

SEVERITY OF DROUGHT September 2015 – February 2016

FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes in (mm) and (%N)

FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS SEP 2015-FEB. 2016 in (mm) and (%N)

way below normal

below normal

near normal

above normal way below normal

below normal

near normal

above normal

FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)

way below normal

below normal

near normal

above normal

FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE (Sept.- Oct. 2015)

Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer Lowland Visayas – Near average Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer Mountainous Mindanao – Slightly cooler

Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler (15-22oC)

Lowland Luzon –Near average (20-32oC)

Lowland Visayas – Slightly warmer (22.5-33oC)

Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer (22.5-33oC)

Mountainous Mindanao – Near average (18-29.5oC)

FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE (Nov. – Dec. 2015)

Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler (15-23.5oC)

Lowland Luzon –Slightly warmer (20-33.5oC)

Lowland Visayas – Slightly warmer (22.5-33oC)

Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer (23-33oC)

Mountainous Mindanao – Near average (17-30oC)

Mountainous Luzon – Near average (14.5-23.5oC)

Lowland Luzon –Slightly warmer (17.5-33.5oC)

Lowland Visayas – Slightly warmer (23-32oC)

Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer (22.5-33.5oC)

Mountainous Mindanao – Slightly warmer (17.5-30.5oC)

FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE ( January 2016)

Mountainous Luzon – slightly cooler Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer Lowland Visayas – Slightly warmer Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer Mountainous Mindanao – Near average

DRY DAYS FORECAST

MONTH ARMM CAR NCR NIR R01 R02 R03 R04-A R04-B R05 R06 R07 R08 R09 R10 R11 R12 R13

SEP 22 13 6 19 9 18 8 16 22 23 23 24 25 23 20 24 23 22

OCT 22 23 24 21 25 22 25 22 23 20 21 21 17 22 18 22 23 17

NOV 24 25 27 24 28 19 27 19 23 15 22 23 14 20 22 21 23 17

DEC 27 28 30 26 31 24 29 20 25 16 25 24 14 24 24 23 27 16

JAN2016 30 30 29 29 31 25 28 22 28 20 30 27 18 28 27 24 28 17

DRY DAY – a day with 1 mm or less

MONTH Forecast

September 2 to 4

October 2 or 3

November 1 or 2

December 0 or 1

January 0 or 1

February 0 or 1

Tropical Cyclone FORECAST

Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)

SUMMARY

Consensus ENSO prediction indicate continuation of strong El Niño conditions during the August-October 2015 season in progress, with the event lasting into MAM 2016.

Significant reduction in rainfall is predicted beginning September 2015 to February 2016 over most parts of the country;

Moderate to severe drought conditions will be likely during the forecast period;

Slightly warmer than average temperature is expected during the forecast period; slightly cooler than average over mountainous Luzon;

5-8 tropical cyclones may develop/enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) until Feb. 2016;

SUMMARY Drought / Dry Spell Outlook for September 2015 as of 25 August 2015 rainfall

assessment:

o 13 provinces likely to experience dry condition;

o 21 provinces likely to experience dry spell;

o 6 provinces likely to experience drought

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES SEPTEMBER 2015


LUZON (9) PANGASINAN, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, METRO MANILA, CAVITE, ROMBLON

VISAYAS (3) CAPIZ, CEBU

MINDANAO (1) NORTH COTABATO


LUZON (5) BATANES, ISABELA, CAMARINES SUR, MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (5) E. SAMAR, LEYTE, N. SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), S. LEYTE

MINDANAO (11) ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, COMPOSTELA VALLEY, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU


LUZON (5) AURORA, LAGUNA, QUEZON, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES

VISAYAS (1) BOHOL

SUMMARY Drought / Dry Spell Outlook at the end of Dec. 2015


o 14 provinces likely to experience dry spell;

o 46 provinces likely to experience drought

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF YEAR 2015


LUZON (3) APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, CAGAYAN

MINDANAO (6) BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, MISAMIS ORIENTAL,DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR


LUZON (7) ABRA, KALINGA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATANGAS, PALAWAN, ALBAY

VISAYAS (3) NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN

MINDANAO (4) ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, LANAO DEL NORTE, DAVAO ORIENTAL


LUZON (25) ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL, MINDORO, ROMBLON, CAMARINES NORTE,CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (13) AKLAN,ANTIQUE,CAPIZ,GUIMARAS,ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL,BOHOL,CEBU,EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR,SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO (8)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL. SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU

SUMMARY Drought / Dry Spell Outlook at the end of forecast period (Feb. 2016)


o 1 province likely to experience dry spell;

o 65 provinces likely to experience drought, some of which might suffer moderate to severe drought.

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF FEBRUARY 2016


MINDANAO (1) SURIGAO DEL NORTE


LUZON (2) BENGUET, CAGAYAN

MINDANAO (4) BUKIDNON, DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR


LUZON (35) ABRA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (16) AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS,ILOILO NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR),SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO (14)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO ORIENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU

Use water wisely!

PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the situation and

updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate.

The Weather and Climate Authority

MARAMING SALAMAT!

55

Last Three Month SST, OLR and 925hp Wind Anom.

- Positive SSTA strengthened and extended from the South American coast line to the central equatorial Pacific in the last three months.

- From May to July, negative OLR anomalies persisted over the central and eastern Pacific and westerly low-level winds prevailed across most of the equatorial Pacific.

56

SST,D20 and 925hp

Wind anomalies in July

1982 1997 2015

MJJ 2015

MJJ 1997

MJJ 1982

Actual Rainfall in mm. & % of Normal for Nov 2014 – June 2015

Actual Rainfall

Observed (mm) % Normal

Normal RR(mm)

(1981-2010)

Actual Rainfall for July 2015

Actual Rainfall

Observed (mm) % Normal

Normal RR(mm)

(1981-2010)

Actual Rainfall for August 1-25, 2015

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