Download - Ministry of Finance and Na Release Date: December, 2012 At ...

Ministry of

At a G

HIGHLI

• Tpw

• TmpraUHco

• E

p1pfu

• TmceSC

• Tpincob

• Tmlafa

1Source

f Finance and Na

Glance-

IGHTS

The annual revious m

which offse

Total cash rmainly for

rofit organate in Aust

US and NZ However thompared to

Export receroceeds fro,500 tonnerevious mouel and con

Tourism remainly suppertain evenhow, Don

Conference

The level orevious mncrease in overage realance of g

Total recurrmainly due arge busineall in intere

e: Quaranti

ational Planning

-Octob

inflation ronth, whic

et a fall in d

remittancehousehold

nizations. Dtralia coupdollars; co

his slight o October m

eipts increaom agricules1 were exonth. Imponstruction m

ceipts recoported by nts that mnors Foru.

of foreign month main

remittancemained thgoods durin

rent revenuto an incre

esses. On test paymen

ine

g

er 2012

rate recordch was madomestic p

s slightly precipients

During theled with a ontributed pick up inmonths of

ased in Ocltural prodxported in orts paymenmaterials.

orded an ian increa

may have aum Meetin

reserves snly due toces. And de same at ng the sam

ue improveease in recthe other hnts on publ

1

2

ded 1.2% iainly driveower and i

picked up s, which ofe same per

depreciatito the incrn remittanprevious y

ctober 2012ducts – parOctober 2nts howeve

increase inse in usag

also contribng and th

slightly deo import pdespite the8.1 month

me period.

ed in Octoceipts fromhand, recuric debts, w

n October en by localimported fo

in Octoberffset a 30%riod, a sligon of the T

rease in thences in Ocyears.

2 from therticularly s012 compaer declined

n October ge of foreibuted, inc

he Pacific

eclined in payments fe decline s, mainly s

ober 2012 cm income arrent expen

which is not

Release Da

2012 coml food andood prices.

r 2012 from% decline iht decline Tongan Pae October 2ctober 201

e previous quash expared to arod mainly du

2012 fromign credit luded the

Maritime

October 2for oil whin reserve

supported b

compared and corporanditure dect unusual d

ate: December, 2

mpared to -d imported.

m the previn remittanin the une

a’anga agai2012 cash 12 still rem

month maorts, where

ound 700 toue to lowe

m the prevcard transNational A

e Transpo

2012 comphich more es, monthsby the imp

to the prevate tax fromclined mainduring this

2012

-0.6% in thd fuel price

vious monthnces to nonemploymeninst both thremittancemains wea

ainly due te more thaonnes in th

er imports o

vious montsactions anAgricultur

ort Allianc

pared to ththan offs

s of impoproved trad

vious montm small annly due toperiod.

he es

h, n-nt he es. ak

to an he of

th nd ral ce

he et

ort de

th nd

a

Ministry of Finance and National Planning Release Date: December, 2012

2

2Nominal GDP 2012/13: T$784.5 million (estimate) 3Note there is difficulty in separation of tourism receipts from private remittances

(T$m unless otherwise indicated)

% change from YEAR TO DATE (YTD) July 2012-October 2012

Oct 2011

Sept 2012

Oct 2012

Sept 2012

Oct 2011

Values (T$m)

% of Budget (2012/13)

% of GDP2 (2012/13)

FISCAL INDICATORS (Government Financial Statistics Basis) (33% of year)

Total Revenue & Grants 16.02 10.58 16.08 +52.0% +0.4% 56.73 26.04% 27.77%

Total Revenue 13.76 9.90 14.66 +48.1% 6.5% 50.89 34.09% 19.03%

Grant (cash grants) 2.26 0.68 1.42 +108% -37.2% 5.84 8.52% 8.74%

Total Expenditure & Net Lending 13.66 15.14 13.22 -12.7% -3.2% 66.02 30.48% 27.61%

Expenditure (incl. cash grants) 13.63 15.20 13.11 -13.8% -3.8% 66.00 30.54% 27.55%

Total Net Lending 0.03 -0.06 0.11 0.02 3.15%

Total Public Debt 318.3 351.6 355.2 +1.0% +11.6% 45.3%

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATORS

YTD Values

(July 2012-Oct 2012)

% change from prev. YTD (July 2011-Oct

2011)

YTD Values

(July 12-Oct 12) as % of GDP

Exports (OET Basis) 0.9 0.6 1.2 +100% +33.3% 2.9 +17.8% +37.0%

Imports (OET Basis) 25.0 19.0 16.0 -15.8% -36.0% 67.0 -23.4% +8.5%

Cash Remittances 9.1 8.7 9.5 +9.2% +4.4% 36.4 -9.8% +4.6%

Tourism Receipts3 5.5 5.4 7.7 +42.6% +40.0% 25.9 +19.8% +3.3%

MONETARY INDICATORS

Official Foreign Reserves 213.9 247.9 246.2 -0.7% +15.1% Note:

(i) Overall Balance is not shown because it does not include total expenditure i.e. In-kind expenditure and transactions funded by the Chinese loan which this data is not available on a monthly basis.

(ii) Economic & Monetary data for the month of October 2012 are still provisional numbers.

Import Cover (months) 8.0 8.1 8.1 0.0% +1.3%

Inflation (annual % change) 4.3% -0.6% 1.2% +1.8% point change

-3.1% point change

Retail Fuel Prices (monthly average) Petrol (T$/litre) Diesel (T$/litre)

2.76 2.77

2.79 2.87

2.87 2.95

+2.9% +2.8%

+4.0% +6.5%

Ministry of Finance and National Planning Release Date: December, 2012

3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

T$millions

Figure 1: Consumer Price Index (Inflation)

Figure 2: Retail Fuel Prices (monthly average)

Figure 3: Cash Remittances

Source: National Reserve Bank of Tonga

Source: Tonga Bureau of Statistics


Figure 4: Cash remittances for October months in previous years


Figure 5: Foreign Reserves & Import Coverage

Figure 6: Balance of Trade (OET Basis)



Figure 8: Tongan Pa’anga Exchange Rates


Figure 7: Tourism Receipts




‐2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Oct‐11 Dec‐11 Feb‐12 Apr‐12 Jun‐12 Aug‐12 Oct‐12

Annual % Change

Local Items

Imported Items

All Items

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2TOP$/litre

Petrol Diesel

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

TOP $m

Non‐profit organizations Household

0

5

10

15

20

25

Oct‐07 Oct‐08 Oct‐09 Oct‐10 Oct‐11 Oct‐12

TOP%millions

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

T$millions

Balance of Trade Export (OET Basis) Import (OET Basis)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

100

150

200

250

300

Mon

ths of Im

port Coverage

TOP$m

Gross Foreign Reserves (LHS)

Import Cover

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

USD NZD AUD