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CPM-PERT
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Course on Project Management
Purpose of CPM
Finish fast
Quantify progress
Communicate effectively
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Course on Project Management
PM Today Necessary?
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Frustration with cost & schedule overruns Frustration with reliability of production estimates Management challenges exist today:
Only44% of projects are completed on time On average, projects are 189% over-budget 70% of completed projects do not perform as expected 30% of projects are canceled before completion On average, projects are 222% longer than expected
PM has been shown to improve this performanceThese statistics were compiled by an independent monitoring group, TheStandish Group, and represent the US national average for 1998
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Course on Project Management
Advantages and Disadvantages of FormalSchedules
Saves time and money on large complex projects
Effective communication tool
Too much work
Assessment of duration of tasks Assessment of interdependencies
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Course on Project Management
Resource Oriented and Time Oriented Schedules
Resource oriented
Time oriented
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Course on Project Management
Elements of a Critical Path Chart
Activity
Precedence
Duration/cost
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Elements of a Critical Path Chart
Activity
Precedence
Duration/cost
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Elements of a Critical Path Chart
Activity
Precedence
Duration/cost
Activity Description Precedents
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool A
C Select list of patientsD Sample from list C
E Mail surveys to selected patients D
F Collect responses E
G Analyze data F
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Elements of a Critical Path Chart
Activity
Precedence
Duration/cost
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Elements of a Critical Path Chart
Activity
Precedence
Duration/cost
Activity Description Precedents Duration
A Select satisfaction survey tool 2 weeks
B Print survey tool A 3 weeks
C Select list of patients 1 week
D Sample from list C 1 week
E Mail surveys to selected patients D 2 weeks
F Collect responses E 4 weeks
G Analyze data F 3 weeks
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Branch and Node Charts
Activity on branch
Activity on node
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Activity In Node
A B
C
Activity Description Precedents
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool A
C Obtain list of patients
D Sample from list C
E Mail surveys to selected patients D,B
F Collect responses E
G Analyze data F
D
E F G
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Activity On Branches
1 3
2
Activity Description Precedents
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool A
C Obtain list of patients
D Sample from list C
E Mail surveys to selected patients D,B
F Collect responses E
G Analyze data F
4
5 6 7A B E F
C D
EndG
Start
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Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
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Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
Forward pass calculates early start and finish
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
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Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
Backward pass calculates latest start and end times
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
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Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
Critical Path includes activities where earliest starttime and latest start time are equal
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
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Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
Activities not on the critical path have slack.
The latest start time and the earliest start date aredifferent
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
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Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
Start Finish
Early 0
Late
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
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Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
Start Finish
Early 0 2
Late
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
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Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
Start Finish
Early 2 5
Late
S F
E 0 2
L
S F
E 2 5
L
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Course on Project Management
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
Start Finish
Early 1 2
Late
S F
E 0 2
L
S F
E 2 5
L
S F
E 0 1
L
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Course on Project Management
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
Start Finish
Early 5 7
Late
S F
E 0 2
L
S F
E 2 5
L
S F
E 0 1
L
S F
E 1 2
L
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Course on Project Management
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
S F
E 0 2
L
S F
E 2 5
L
S F
E 0 1
L
S F
E 1 2
L
S F
E 5 7
L
S FE 7 11
L
S FE 11 14
L
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Course on Project Management
Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
S F
E 0 2
L
S F
E 2 5
L
S F
E 0 1
L
S F
E 1 2
L
S F
E 5 7
L
S FE 7 11
L
S F
E 11 14
L 14
Latest finish is the minimum of latest start ofsucceeding tasks. Latest start is the latest finish
minus duration.
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Course on Project Management
Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
S F
E 0 2
L
S F
E 2 5
L
S F
E 0 1
L
S F
E 1 2
L
S F
E 5 7
L
S FE 7 11
L
S FE 11 14
L 11 14
Latest finish is the minimum of latest start ofsucceeding tasks. Latest start is the latest finish
minus duration.
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Course on Project Management
Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
S F
E 0 2
L
S F
E 2 5
L
S F
E 0 1
L
S F
E 1 2
L
S F
E 5 7
L
S F
E 7 11
L 7 11
S FE 11 14
L 11 14
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
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Course on Project Management
Earliest and Latest Start and Finish Times
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
S FE 0 2
L 0 2
S FE 2 5
L 2 5
S F
E 0 1
L 3 4
S F
E 1 2
L 4 5
S FE 5 7
L 5 7
S FE 7 11
L 7 11
S FE 11 14
L 11 14
Activity Description
A Select satisfaction survey tool
B Print survey tool
C Select list of patients
D Sample from list
E Mail surveys to patients
F Collect responsesG Analyze data
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Course on Project Management
Slack Time
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
S F
E 0 2
L 0 2
S F
E 2 5
L 2 5
S F
E 0 1
L 3 4
S F
E 1 2
L 4 5
S F
E 5 7
L 5 7
S FE 7 11
L 7 11
S FE 11 14
L 11 14
Slack time = Latest start Earliest start
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Course on Project Management
Critical Path
A B
C D
E F G2 3 2 4 3
1 1
End
Start
S F
E 0 2
L 0 2
S F
E 2 5
L 2 5
S F
E 0 1
L 3 4
S F
E 1 2
L 4 5
S F
E 5 7
L 5 7
S FE 7 11
L 7 11
S FE 11 14
L 11 14
Critical path includes activities with no slack.
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Course on Project Management
Communicating Project Schedule
Time scaled network of activities
Gantt chart
Time an activity graphs and completion graphs
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Course on Project Management
Communicating Project Schedule
Time scaled network of activities
Gantt chart
Time an activity graphs and completion graphs
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Course on Project Management
Communicating Project Schedule
Time scaled network of activities
Gantt chart
Time an activity graphs and completion graphs
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Course on Project Management
Software
Discovery of Critical Path
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Course on Project Management
PERT analysis37
Draw the network. Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical path.
The length of the critical path is the mean of the project durationprobability distribution which is assumed to be normal
The standard deviation of the project duration probabilitydistribution is computed by adding the variances of the criticalactivities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) andtaking the square root of that sum
Probability computations can now be made using the normaldistribution table.
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Course on Project Management
Probability computation38
Determine probability that project is completed within specified time
Z =
x -
where = tp = project mean time
= project standard mean time
x = (proposed ) specified time
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Course on Project Management
Normal Distribution of Project Time39
= tp Timex
Z
Probability
l
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Course on Project Management
PERT Example
40
Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.)
A -- 4 6 8B -- 1 4.5 5C A 3 3 3D A 4 5 6E A 0.5 1 1.5F B,C 3 4 5G B,C 1 1.5 5
H E,F 5 6 7I E,F 2 5 8J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5K G,I 3 5 7
l
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Course on Project Management
PERT Example
41
A
D
C
B
F
E
G
I
H
K
J
PERT Network
PERT E l
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Course on Project Management
PERT Example
42Activity Expected Time Variance
A 6 4/9B 4 4/9C 3 0D 5 1/9
E 1 1/36F 4 1/9G 2 4/9H 6 1/9
I 5 1J 3 1/9K 5 4/9
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Course on Project Management
PERT Example43
Activity ES EF LS LF SlackA 0 6 0 6 0 *criticalB 0 4 5 9 5
C 6 9 6 9 0 *D 6 11 15 20 9E 6 7 12 13 6F 9 13 9 13 0 *G 9 11 16 18 7H 13 19 14 20 1
I 13 18 13 18 0 *J 19 22 20 23 1K 18 23 18 23 0 *
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Course on Project Management
PERT Example44
Vpath = VA+ VC + VF + VI + VK= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9
= 2
path = 1.414
z= (24 - 23)/ (24-23)/1.414 = .71
From the Standard Normal Distribution table:
P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612
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Thank You for Your
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