BOKO HARAM CONFLICT RESEARCH/ANAYSIS & MANAGEMENTPREVENTIVE COUNTERTERRORISM AND SUSTAINABLEPEACEBUILDING: NIGERIA AND BOKO HARAM CASE STUDY.

Maiwa’azi Dandaura Samu

Center for Justice and PeacebuildingEastern Mennonite University, USA2012

David Blackwell

The current study will focus on the following research questions:1 a. What are the theories behind the mushrooming Boko Haram terrorism/insurgency?b. What are the contextual characteristics of Boko Haram perpetrators and how can these help us to better appreciate the causes, challenges and dynamics behind the attacks considered at Jos COCIN Church and Rayfield St Finbar’s Roman Catholic Church.c. How are people recruited into Boko Haram groups; how are they transformed from passive to active members and inspired or convinced to use violence for the Boko Haram cause?2 a. What place does identity, shame, loss of dignity and respect play in these processes?b. What are the perceptions of justice by both victims and perpetrators of the Boko Haram attacks?3 a. Why does sectarian violence persist in the Northern states of Nigeria?b. How does the nation heal affected communities?

The aim of this research is to• provide data and information for formulating helpful policies, • design credible intervention measures to target critical points in the Boko

Haram recruitment and integration chain, thereby preempt and prevent violence.

The ultimate purpose is to • enhance the knowledge/experience of the Nigerian government and

public to help in the prevention and deterrence of violent conflicts/terrorism.• contribute to the development of a counterterrorism program that is

centered on the protection of human life and the freedom families enjoy in their nations world over.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

• A mixed method of written surveys, interviews, and observation activities was used for data collection from the selected population and sites of attacks. This mixed-method employed both quantitative and qualitative information. • On the quantitative side, it relied on surveys, using a quasi-experimental design to

contrast perceptions and comparison of the feelings in communities and individuals. • The qualitative side of this research was informed by focus groups and key

informant interviews in the cities where the chosen cases of study were located and the other surveyed communities of the different regions of the country. Semistructured interview methodology, direct person-person or phone contacts were used to facilitate interviews.

• All questions were created from existing theoretical frameworks on terrorism and counterterrorism ensuring existence of baseline data against which current results could be compared. • Such pre-existing models have the benefit of being previously vetted

and field tested, saving considerable time in the survey design process. • Such data thereby helped the researcher generate facts to support

suggested preventive counterterrorism approaches for application. • With the consent of the respondent or participants, some interviews

were voice recorded or written for accuracy of transcription.

POPULATION SELECTION PROCESS & LOCATIONS OF STUDY• Offices, homes, professionals and average Nigerians were targeted at random. • The sampling for this study was made by an intentional selection of subjects from

the northern zone which is the focal point of the Boko Haram conflict and this case study. • A sampling was done in the south-south region to serve as a standard of the

appropriateness of the views from the north to counterbalance the possibility of northerners being unduly influenced by the pervasiveness of the Boko Haram conflict.• The selection of the population was done based on an equal ratio distributed

between Christians and Muslims, • 40% of the selected population between the ages of 21-44; • 60% between the ages of 45-and above. • Males and females were randomly selected without assigning a ratio

• This research on the Boko Haram insurgency/terrorism seeks to provide background knowledge based on almost 200 interviews and written surveys with people from all walks of life, many were conducted in the local Hausa language where necessary. • The surveys and interview questions explain the context of the

conflicts, and tried to examine the strategies which stakeholders, including Boko Haram, the Christian and Muslim communities, Nigerian government and security agencies have sought to use in managing the conflict and the limited results they have so far achieved and concludes by giving room for individual recommendations for preventive strategies on the conflict.

1.7.4 Data analysis and findings The written survey questionnaire and semi-structured interview were used for gathering both quantitative and qualitative data. 100 written surveys with one open question and 40 face to face interviews were conducted by the researcher. Respondent’s data were disaggregated by separating groups along the aspects of age, religion, and region of the country to produce a simpler more accurate way of presenting the information on what the data is saying about the research findings. Data analysis consisted of indexing, managing, and interpreting the pieces of collected information.

Ages 21-44 Ages 45 & Above

SUBJECT Code # TOTAL Number of Muslims

Reoccur Times Muslim

Number of Christians

Reoccur Times Christians

Total: 40 Total: 60

1. Social Justice, Equal rights, dignity SoJuEqDig 100 50 40 50 30 30 402. Bad governance, corruption, need for transparency and a listening government

BagCoTra 100 50 48 50 45 30 45

3. Poverty, jobs, unemployment, youth engagement & Empowerment

PoJoUnEmp 100 50 56 50 40 34 53

4. Poor control of illegal immigrants PoCoImm 100 50 10 50 45 25 205. Ethno-religious Dialogue in all known & latent conflict flash points

EtreDia 100 50 40 50 40 30 50

6. Civic/National orientation/revival of values/Nigerians see themselves as a family/de-emphasize statism & indegeneship, from ethnicity to common nationalism

CiNaNig 100 50 5 50 40 10 35

7. Religions extremism & radicalization, need to discourage rumors, inciting preachings, official & media reporters offensive language

ReExRaNePre 100 50 20 50 50 25 45

8. Immediate arrest and punishment of perpetrators of violence openly

ImArPuPe 100 50 5 50 40 20 25

9. Demonetize Politics, encourage merit not zoning or favoritism DemPoEnc 100 50 5 50 45 25 25

10. Retrain security operatives in modern security, Intelligence & counterterrorism techniques and arm them with appropriate technology

ReSeOpIntCo 100 50 40 50 45 40 45

11. Media literacy; intensify media campaign against violence MeIntMed 100 50 5 50 30 10 25

12. Redesign security operatives approach to relationship with the society

ReSeOps 100 50 30 50 40 26 44

13. Arrest all who are fingered as Sponsors of violence no matter their status

ArrSpoVio 100 50 9 50 40 30 19

14. Employ more people into the security forces especially Police and Army

EmMoSecFo 100 50 2 50 10 2 10

15. Intensify prayer against violence by all religions InPraRel 100 50 30 50 38 20 48

FREQUENCY OF REOCCURING THEMES IN THE SURVEY OPEN QUESTION Participants were asked to give their own suggested ways of ending and preventing events like the Boko Haram insurgency/terrorism.

• Out of 100 subjects SoJuEqDig scored 40 Muslim and 30 Christian mentions out of which 30 are between 21 and 44 and 40 are 45 years plus. This is a 70% favorable score, which by any standard means SoJuEqDig is a theme that is a strong yearning for all ages (Boko Haram perpetrators and other Nigerians alike), therefore valid for preventive action, so requires attention by authorities.

• BagCoTra even has a higher mention of 48 times by Muslims and 45 times by Christians, with a total of 75 people out of 100 or 75% mentioning it.

• PoJoUnEmp was equally a concern for both the young and older subjects alike.• PoCoImm shows a varied interest between Christians and Muslims. Muslims mentioned

this only 10 times out of 50 people whereas Christians mentioned it 45 times out of 50 people. it is a very sensitive issue for Christians since most of the immigrants are said to be Muslims.

• Christians and Muslims are however at very strong agreement as to the need for EtreDia.

FREQUENCY OF REOCCURING THEMES IN SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEWSDiscovery of Boko Haram’s theories, recruitment designs, characteristics, inspiration to kill, identity and dignity issues, and how to heal affected communities etc

SUBJECT & CODE

TOTAL# of Inter-views

# of ReoccurringPositiveAffirmation

# of ReoccurringNegativeAffirmation

No Mention of subject

# of Victim& professionals

# ofDetainees

# of Security Ops

# of Ex-Sympathizers

Ages 21-44commented

Ages 45 & Abovecommented

1. Almajiri training and indoctrination (Almindoc) 40 25 00 5 4 6 8 7 16 9

2. Attraction of tertiary and unemployed youths and a very strong in-group spirit or culture (Ingrocul)

40 15 00 10 2 5 2 6 10 5

3. Poverty, jobs, youth engagement & Empowerment (Povempow)

40 30 5 7 2 12 4 12 10 15

4. Illegal immigrants involvement (Illeimm) 40 34 00 10 12 6 8 8 10 24

5. Ethno-religious, cultural, historic and economic roots (ethiseco) 40 36 00 4 12 12 8 6 6 22

6. Doing the will of Allah (DowilAh) 40 26 5 20 2 12 2 10 10 107. Interest in gaining paradise overpassing the judgment of God (ParadGo)

40 20 00 28 2 12 3 5 10 7

8. Enclave and “seclusionism” philosophy (Ensecphil) 40 25 00 20 5 2 8 10 6 19

9. Social justice, equal treatment (Sojuseq) 40 30 00 15 2 12 5 11 10 20

10. Sponsors, powerful politicians (Sponpol) 40 36 00 10 14 2 10 10 16 20

11. Justice, Punishment & Jail (Juspu) 40 38 5 5 12 6 10 10 10 2412. Desire for sharia rule (Sharule) 40 42 00 10 12 12 8 10 12 2413. Arrest all who are fingered as Sponsors of violence no matter their status to aid healing pain (Arrespon)

40 25 9 10 12 2 8 3 8 17

14. Almajiri education not recognized, feel humiliated and rejected (Aledrej)

40 27 8 10 2 12 3 10 9 6

15. Intensify prayer against violence by all religions (Praagviol) 40 32 00 22 12 2 8 10 6 26

16. Compensation for loses from attacks (Compforloss) 40 34 5 14 2 8 10 8 26

• DowilAh (Doing the will of Allah) strongly supported by detainees and the ex-activists as reason for killing and dying in a jihad; they alone mention DowilAh 22 times out of the 26 times it is mentioned.• Illeimm (Illegal immigrant’s involvement) received 34 mentions , representing 85%

of the interviewed population.• Sponpol (Sponsors, powerful politicians) was mentioned 36 times confirming the

belief and conflict analysis in chapter two that political power brokers were part of the generators of this insurgency/terrorism. • Sharule (Desire for sharia rule) is believed by 36 respondents mentioning it 42

times as implicated in the perpetuation of the insurgency/terrorism. Boko Haram themselves have stated it over and over that this is their main motivator, however when you hear about their desire to control a political region of the nation, then you realize that may be Sharule is just being used for legitimizing the true motive of the insurgency/terrorism – power, political and economic intentions.

SUBJECT & CODE Coding TOTAL 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1. List of things that are believed to generate global violence (Stimglovio).

a. Extremist religious beliefs and impulses (Extrelimp) 1 40 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 5 3 5 20

b. covert support of governments and rulers of the northern states (Covsup) 2 40 5 5 2 3 3 2 2 3 5 5 6

c. Unjust opposition to government policies (Oppgovpol) 3 40 6 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 10 10 10d. Opposition to Christian president/President Goodluck Jonathan (OppJon) 4 40 6 2 0 0 3 2 6 3 4 4 10e. Radical religious education & preaching (Radedprech) 5 40 5 0 0 0 0 0 7 5 5 7 13f. Poverty and lack of economic opportunity (Laceconopp) 6 40 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 3 5 10 10

g. Impact of Globalization (movement of Nigeriens and Chadians into Nigeria) (Impglob) 7 40 6 1 8 5 5 0 3 2 2 4 9

h. Resistance to actions perpetrated by the forces/police (Resforces) 8 40 5 3 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 10 12

i. Terrorist motivated by desire for power to shape the future/self-aggrandizement (Des4pow) 9 40 3 3 0 0 0 5 3 4 2 5 15

j. Psychology - low self-esteem/chance for sense of worth by the radicals ( they feel government sees them as nobodies so they want to show what they can do) (Loselest) 10 40 0 0 1 5 3 5 3 3 2 3 15

k. The legacy of Western colonialism (especially as it affects alcohol, nakedness in dressing, movies BH says spoils their children so they should be destroyed) (Legwescol) 11 40 19 10 4 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 3

l. Is a process, not any one generator (Procnomot) 12 40 15 16 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0m. Lack of democracy/development dividends (Lacdemodev) 13 40 7 8 3 2 0 0 5 5 3 5 2n. Human rights abuses (corruption and bribes) (Huriabu) 14 40 0 0 1 0 3 6 5 5 8 6 6o. Detention of all freedom fighters as suspects (Detfrefigh) 15 40 28 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0q. Reaction to new Nigerian anti-terrorism law (Nuantiter) 16 40 20 5 2 2 2 1 6 0 7 0r. Power brokers who want to control Nigeria (Powbrok) 17 40 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 6 7 7 10

2. Indicate the methods that are most likely to be used by your group on a long time basis (Methattac)

a. Suicide bombing attack (Suibomb) 1 40 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 10 12

b. Attack on major infrastructure like bridges, landmarks, and ports (Infbrilanpor) 2 40 0 0 0 0 3 5 7 5 5 5 10

c. Attack on major government or financial institution networks (Govfinins) 3 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 5 7 6 14

d. Attack on power plants, telephone infrastructures, mail services (Powtelmail) 4 40 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 3 7 8 10

e. Attacks on religious places of worship most likely churches (Relplawor) 5 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 7 10 153. What is the size of Boko Haram organization? (Sizboharam) a. Like 100 cells and above 1 40 6 0 0 3 0 6 7 5 3 3 7b. 50 cells 2 c. In 6-12 states 3 d. less than 6 states 4

RATIO OF RATED INTERVIEW QUESTIONS ON THE GENERATORS OF GLOBAL VIOLENCE LIKE BOKO HARAM ATTACKSPlease rate these generators for Boko Haram attacks. Rating basis: on the scale of 0 – 10, 0 being not-applicable and 10 meaning strongly applicable.

• This category gives the insight to what the survey participants feel are Boko Haram’s theories, recruitment designs, characteristics, generators or inspiration for attacks, identity and dignity issues, and how to heal affected communities etc.The questions were verbally rated according to the subject’s perception of what constituted a generator for Boko Haram attacks. Rating basis was on the scale of 0 – 10. 0 being not-applicable and 10 meaning strongly applicable. 40 people answered these questions.

• Extrelimp, 20 people scored Extrelimp at the scale of 10 meaning it was strongly applicable as a motivator or driver.

• Covsup was almost evenly scored from scale 0-10, which may indicate that opinions are divided against the Covsup as a generator.

• Oppgovpol scored 30 between the scales of 8-10, probably indicating a strong agreement that Oppgovpol could probably be a strong generator for the Boko Haram attacks.

• OppJon scored 21 between the scales of 7-10, probably meaning over 50% of the people believe that OppJon might be a trigger.

• Radedprech scored 30 agreements between the scales of 6-10, probably meaning a strong agreement that Radedprech is a major factor in urging attacks.

• Over 30 people were of the opinion that Legwescol was not so much implicated in what was happening. They mostly scored Legwescol on the scale of 0-2, meaning not applicable.

SUBJECT TOTAL Substantial increase

Substantial decrease

moderate increase

Undecided No support

1. Consider funding for security agencies and offices that are involved in protecting Nigerians from terrorist networks and in advancing national security goals. Given the current budget, in the light of your expected performance by these agencies, please indicate whether each agency should receive an increase or decrease in funding, or if you think the current funding level should be maintained a. Nigerian Police (NigPol)b. The Nigerian Army (NigArm)c. State Security Service (SSS)d. Civil defense (civDef)e. National security adviser (NSA)

4040404040

2315304

510150000

510054

21015530

595002

2. In the context of current government efforts to protect Nigerians from terrorist networks and to advance national security goals, please indicate whether each of these actions listed below should be given a higher prioritya. Increase the capability and size of the military forces (ICMF)b. Improve national intelligence capabilities (INIC)c. Increase development assistance to Muslim majority areas (IDAMMA)d. Community leaders in terrorist constantly attack areas should be removed (CLTCAASR)e. Start a new combined counterterrorism military/police agency (SCCMPS)f. Improve border, port and cargo security (IPCS)g. Increase use of technology along Niger/Chad border (i.e., ground sensors and unmanned aerial vehicles) (ITech)h. Increase the number of agents at entry points ((INAE)i. Deal with immigrant problems inside the country, not just at border (DIMMBOR)

404040404040404040

283010151625283028

000002000000000000

020508141006050606

050510050705050406

050010060704020000

TOTAL VERY STRONG

STRONG MODERATE

UNDICIDED

NOT SUPPORTIVE

3. How effective are the security operatives’ road blocks in tracking down terrorist or offenders/perpetrators (HwEffSec) 40 00 2 3 5 30

4. How detrimental are security operatives’ road blocks/check points to ordinary citizens (DetRdBlk) 40 25 3 00 10 2

5. The place of the international community and the multinational corporations that do business in or with Nigeria in prodding and helping government to finding a sustainable solution of the conflict (ThePlaIntCom)

40 20 4 5 1 10

RATIO OF RATED SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEW SURVEY QUESTIONS ON SUGGESTED GOVERNMENT PROACTIVE PREVENTIVE ACTION

• In the context of current government efforts to protect Nigerians from terrorist networks and to advance national security goals, please indicate whether each of these actions listed below should be given a higher priority:• ICMF scored 28 agreements meaning substantial increase which

indicates that the forces especially police and the civil defense need to be boosted to faceoff and prevent threats of terrorism. • The public feels even more so at 30 people out of 40 that INIC needs

to be given substantial increase. • 15 people voted substantial agreement and 14 moderate agreements

on CLTCAASR. Meaning that the public desires that community leaders where insurgency/terrorism is endemic should be held accountable for the attacks and to the harms being perpetrated.

5.4.1. Suggested Systemic Changes• When a violent crisis occurs, bring in the military at the breakout of such violence to calm

the situation; then they step aside for peacebuilding processes to take center stage in negotiation and mediation with stakeholders in the conflict. This process should be carried out by well-trained conflict transformation professionals and not the security forces or politicians.

• Justice must be seen to be done by an effective and timely prosecution of those caught in the act of violence or terrorism.

• Reduce, in practice, the length of time people are held in detention before trial by quick prosecutions.

• Government must prove commitment to human rights and the rule of law. • Call a stakeholders dialogue to a political engagement (conflict) dialog to develop

strategies on how to address identified root causes of conflict and violence and other necessary demands.

• Review the anti-terrorism law and design a counterterrorism policy to embrace both prosecution and preventive measures that can keep people from joining terrorist groups altogether.

• Independent anti-corruption institutions:• Start a basic welfare package for the unemployed:• Compulsory non-violence and dignity education for all;• Establish an Accountability Board to identify harms and actions that

need to be addressed;• Appoint a chief counterterrorism adviser (CTA) to coordinate all

counterterrorism efforts and report directly to the president independent of the NSA.• Establish an Interior Strategic Security Centre

5.7.0. TO THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY• Christians need to increasingly learn to be dispassionate about the

Boko Haram insurgency/terrorism. The trading of blame between Christians and Muslims has prevented the nation from getting to the truth on what the insurgency/terrorism is all about.• Christian leaders must give effective direction to the teeming youths in

their churches and groups on how to honestly respond to escalation of violence instead of keeping mute. • It will be to the honor of the Christian leaders if they strive to

overcome their loss of control on their youths resulting in reprisal attacks, insensitivities, and human degradations.

1. The Muslims should seek to court the cooperation of the Christians, as they did in Kenya and the USA, then the insurgency will be compelled to retreat from the Muslim society to the forest or mountains again where they can be appropriately addressed. Muslim Uma/parents need to address the Almajiri processes and difficulties to eliminate the inherent negative humiliation andshame.

Muslim leaders should make every effort to prevent their Friday Juma’at prayer from being used for radicalization and preaching of provocative messages and as the platforms for launching attacks on Christians and their businesses.

Muslim political power brokers whether accused, suspected or not suspected of sponsoring Boko Haram should speak up and continue to sustain the talk against the insurgency/terrorism and in favour of sustainable peace.

The Muslim Community

• Muslim Religious leaders/Clerics/Imams/Mallams must all speak up in their preaching and teachings against radicalism, Boko Haram and violent activism.

• Muslim civil society groups must begin to promote immediately sustainable activities against violence and Boko Haram activities through every medium available to speak up against such terrorism and destructions.

• If the peaceful majority stands up to the minority, the majority will no more be “irrelevant”.

• Muslim leaders have the duty of cleaning the market of provocative materials. • Muslims in Nigeria need to raise campaigns and rallies in their great numbers in support

of government efforts to end the violence and denounce the insurgency/terrorism.• Muslims should begin and sustain citizen arrest of all suspicious persons amongst them.• Muslims can’t afford to be silent because even the Muslims will not be spared at the end.• Know the tricks of the insurgency/terrorists, such as their divide & rule conspiracy• Build Consensus from inside out and work together as a team nationally with all religions

and ethnic groups.

SUMMARY OF KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Establish an Accountability Board to identify harms and actions from the Boko Haram insurgency/terrorism and use Restorative Justice for transparent prosecution and reconciliation.

2. Reassess and redesign security operative’s emergency crisis response framework

3. Establish an Almajiri peace club mentoring program and streamline the Almajiri recitation centers with regular education system.

4. Conduct an ethnic group’s needs assessment and address trauma healing issues.

5. Start a basic welfare benefit package for youths over 21 years and for the guaranteed unemployed.

6. Hold an ethnic nationalities stakeholders’ dialogue.

7. Establish an Interior Strategic Security Centre (ISSEC).

8. Design and implement a counterterrorism/violence policy to augment the anti-terrorism law.

CONCLUSION

• This initiative emphasizes the need to tackle the root causes of instability, such as disregard for human dignity, corrupt government, social injustices, and the epidemic of terror with a national “vaccination” program.

• To prevent terrorism and violence, the nation needs to address both the immediate threat of attacks and the longer-term factors which enable terrorist groups to grow and flourish.

• Government should reflect on its fundamental values and, in particular, its commitment not only to protect the people of this country and its interests overseas but to do so in a way that is consistent with and indeed advances the nation’s commitment to human rights and the rule of law.

• Coordination between police, civil defense, army, the state security service and other government agencies concerned with national security will be essential for the prevention of violence and terrorism.

• If the political will and resources can be invested, a lot can yet be saved for the nation. Our leaders must set aside pride and selfishness. They must do what will give the coming generations a safe nation.