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Transcript of Boko Haram - Aaron Sellers
Sellers 1
Aaron Sellers
HI 478
Kalinga
11/29/12
Political Islamic and Violence in Nigeria
Religious violence is reaching pandemic proportions across Nigeria. The state is "marred
by frequent religious confrontations between Muslims and Christians."1 In a seven year period,
from the restoration of democratic governance in 1999 to 2006, upwards of 10,000 people were
killed in religious violence.2 Boko Haram, a radical Islamist sect, has been responsible for over
1,000 deaths in northern Nigeria in 2012 alone.3 The situation will continue to spiral downwards
if a solution cannot be found to halt the violence. Any such solution must address the deeply
rooted social unrest among the northern Muslim community that fuels Boko Haram.
British conquest of Nigeria in 1903 lead to an existential crisis for its Islamic community.
Westernization led to decaying Islamic adherence and moral corruption. This spiritual crisis was
coupled with growing economic hardships related to the oil boom and poor governance. The
Maitatsine riots were the first related outbreaks of major violence. Boko Haram emerged out of
all of this. The Nigerian state has been ineffective in quelling the violence and thus it has
proliferated.
The purpose of this paper is to outline the root causes of collective dissatisfaction that
have permeated Nigeria's Islamic population and to link these to outbursts of violence,
1 Montclos, Marc-Antoine Dérouse. "Conversion to Islam and Modernity in Nigeria: A View From the Underworld." Africa Today 54, no. 4 (2008): 71-87. p. 72 2 Laremont, Ricardo and Gregorian Hrach. "Political Islam in West Africa and the Sahel." Military Review 86, no. 1 (2006): 27-36. p. 30 3 The Economist. "Hold Your Nose and Talk." The Economist, September 29, 2012: 18.
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particularly Maitatsine and Boko Haram. After Boko Haram has been properly defined and its
causes have been suitably addressed, this paper will explore the merit of claims that Boko Haram
is moving towards a model of international jihad and allying itself with foreign organizations.
Islamic Foundations and Spiritual Crisis
Islam is deeply entrenched in the culture of the region that is now northern Nigeria. It
was first adopted in Kano in the early 14th century.4 By the 15th century it was recognized as
one of the world's great Islamic cities. Socially and physically it was analogous to North African
and Middle Eastern cities of the time.5 Islam has, since its inception, been a deeply political
religion that is difficult to separate from political governance. Kano was no different. The cities
palace was placed near its mosque in order to parallel Medina and the home of the Prophet
Muhammad.
The 19th century saw Islam transcend Kano and become an immensely powerful force in
the region. Usman Dan Fodio, a religious teacher and reformer, incited a jihad in 1804 against
the Hausa kingdoms.6 The jihad was a response to corruption.7 It has been cited as an early
instance of radical political Islam in Nigeria.8 His goal was to create a Muslim state that was
governed by Sharia law. Several years later the jihad proved to be successful as the Hausa
kingdoms fell and Usman Dan Fodio founded the Sokoto Caliphate. Throughout the 19th century
4 Barkindo, Bawuro. "Growing Islamism In Kano City Since 1970." In Muslim Identity and Social Change in Sub-Saharan Africa, by Louis Brenner, 91-105. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1993. p.91 5 Ibid., p. 92 6 (Laremont 2006, 28) 7 Thomson, Valarie. "Boko Haram and Islamic Fundamentalism in Nigeria." Global Security Studies 3, no. 3 (2012): 46-60. p. 47 8 Williams, Pat and Toyin Falola. Religious Impact on the Nation State: Nigerian Predicament. Brookfield, VT: Ashgate Publishing Company, 1995. p. 2
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it was the largest and most powerful state in West Africa.9 Williams and Falola have this to say
on its importance:
The caliphate of the 19th century continues to play an important role to this very day.
Many of the beliefs that underpinned its structures and institutions survived the colonial
period. In the years leading to the country's independence and thereafter, the caliphate
was the rallying force in the creation of a powerful northern group and region... the dream
of Dan Fodio, the caliphate's founder, is as relevant to contemporary Nigeria as it was to
the 19th century society.10
The Sokoto Caliphate began its quick decline after Britain completely colonized Nigeria in 1903.
The state that Britain created cannot be considered a nation with a unified identity. Incorporated
between its borders were 350 ethnic groups that speak 250 distinct languages.11The largest of
these are the Hausa, who are mostly in the north, and the Igbo and Yoruba, who are located more
in the south. These language groups correspond to separate family and social customs, religious
affiliations, and political organizations.12 One scholar is cited as saying this:
Nigeria is not a nation. It is a mere geographical expression. There are no "Nigerians" in
the same sense as there are "English," "Welsh," or "French." The word "Nigeria" is
merely a distinctive appellation to distinguish those who live within the boundaries of
Nigeria from those who do not.13
The artificial nature of Britain's creation was destined for conflict. National unity has been a
concern for the state from the beginning.
9 (Thomson 2012, 48) 10 (Williams 1995, 17) 11 (Laremont 2006, 48) 12 Sklar, Richard and C.S. Whitaker. "The Federal Republic of Nigeria." In National Unity and Regionalism in Eight African States, edited by Gwendolen Carter, 7-150. Ithica: Conell University Press, 1966. p. 10 13 Uzoigwe, Godfrey and Isaac Albert and Earnest Uwazie. Inter-Ethnic and Religious Conflict Resolution in Nigeria. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 1999. p. 7
Sellers 4
These clear divides were only further exacerbated by Britain's method for colonial rule in
Nigeria. Britain administered the northern and southern regions quite differently. The south
operated under direct rule. British legal codes and administrative procedures replaced the
indigenous systems.14 The North remained more autonomous.
Britain lacked the funds or administrators to employ direct rule into the north, and
therefore it was managed under indirect rule through what it's architect, Sir Frederick Lugard,
named the Native Authority System.15 Essentially this system retained the emirate system of the
Sokoto Caliphate. The position of Sultan remained but was degraded to a figure head with little
official political power. One major effect of these differing systems is the difference in resources
that were allocated for each region. Education in particular suffered from inequities. In 1947, the
south had 500,000 students in primary school, compared with the north who had only 71,000
students.16
Preceding this, there was a debate among Sokoto's scholars and the ruling elite about how
to react to British invasion. There were some who argued for refusal of British rule. Among this
group was the Caliph, and the Emir of Kano, who would have recognized their own political
power was under direct attack.17 Opponents of this strategy claimed that they would be militarily
dominated. Their fears were confirmed when the Caliph and his followers were hunted down and
killed by British troops and the Emir was arrested and exiled. Thus the Sokoto Caliphate was
forced to submit to British rule.
14 Adesoji, Abimbola. "The Boko Haram Uprising and Islamic Revivalism in Nigeria." African Spectrum 45, no. 2 (2010): 95-108. p. 29 15 (Sklar 1966, 19) 16 Ibid., p. 25 17 (Barkindo 1993, 98)
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For the first time, the Muslim north was forced to open its doors to the forces of
Westernization. British rule meant more than just a spiritual challenge from Christianity.
Westernization assailed all aspects of life. This is well represented by a poem from Kano city
resident Ibrahim Yaro Muhammed:
Young people have taken up evil ways
They have abandoned all our respected traditions
All our customs have been abandoned
They have adopted European customs and they speak English
To indicate their liberation and their worldly wisdom...
They no longer wear our traditional clothes
Preferring jackets and trousers.18
Western ideals and forms of governance were not chosen by Nigerians, especially northern
Muslims. They were imposed. The Sokoto Caliphate was more than a strong state in the region.
It was a nation with a clear identity. There existed a community of citizens with similar moral
standards and an accepted social hierarchy. The British created not just a political mess, but also
a spiritual crisis. British rule gnawed at the legitimacy of Islamic rule. They were foreign
invaders in the most absolute sense. They came with a different language, a different religion,
different dress, different customs, and they looked completely different. The British system was
completely alien to the Muslims that once lived under the caliphate. Post-independence, the
Nigerian state was not been successful at grafting different groups together to unite as a true
nation.
18 (Barkindo 1993, 96)
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The Oil Boom and Economic Distress
Nigeria's population, especially those in the north, suffer from dire poverty.
Nearly 75% of northerners live on $1.25 a day, compared to about 25% in the south.19 Many
people lack basic standards of living such as access to clean drinking water, shelter, and
employment. Nationally, life expectancy is only about 50 years. Nigeria has the 2nd highest rate
of AIDS/HIV in Africa and the highest rate of tuberculosis in the world. All of this is true despite
the fact that Nigeria is the third largest economy in Africa.
The vast majority of Nigeria's economy comes from oil, which became very important in
the 1970's. Nigeria is the 12th largest producer of crude oil in the world. Today, oil sector
revenues represents 85% of gross domestic product.20 Much of its oil is bought by the United
States. Currently about 12% of America's oil needs are meet by Nigeria.21 This number is
expected to grow to 25% by 2015 as the United States begins to attempt to diversify away from
Middle Eastern fuel.22
Much of the oil money that has flooded Nigeria has stayed concentrated with the elite and
has not been shared equitably. Once again the north is disproportionately affected because the
sources of oil reside in the south. Money stays concentrated in southern cities which results in
lower unemployment and higher levels of educational attainment for southerners.23
19 (Thomson 2012, 49) 20 Ibid. 21 (Laremont 2006, 28) 22 Gourley, Sean. "Linkages Between Boko Haram and al Qaeda: A Potential Deadly Synergy." Global Security Studies 3, no. 3 (2012): 1-14. p. 2 23 (Thomson 2012, 49)
Sellers 7
The traditional rural economy that many of Nigeria's poor subsisted on has been
decimated by the transition to a petro economy.24 Rapid urbanization occurred as people flocked
to cities with the hopes of catching some of the scraps left by the burgeoning new class of oil
barons and corrupt government officials. About the two this has been said:
The “oil-boom” led to corruption and reckless spending by the government. Many people
became extremely rich and displayed their wealth by building fashionable mansions,
purchasing flashy cars and the latest electronic gadgets for their homes, and taking
frequent trips abroad... This new-found wealth and the construction fever which gripped
both the government and the private sector was the main cause for the unprecedented
rural-urban migration... in Nigeria..... Many of those who came to look for jobs in the
cities were unable to find them and joined the city’s unemployed. In addition, the lesser
ulama and almajirai, or [Quranic] students, were becoming increasingly marginalized.25
The almajirai were historically considered to be an important social group who remained among
the more pious of society. They were able to subsist on begging and migrant labor. No longer
was this the case. They would later become important followers of Maitatsine and a source of
support for Boko Haram.
Crippling poverty has left millions of Nigerians in a desperate situation. Many have
turned to crime to support themselves through robberies and kidnappings. The Nigerian state has
been an ineffective tool for combating economic hardships. They have done nothing to distribute
wealth and resources in a more sustainable fashion. Many observers naturally associate Nigerian
governance with corruption and waste. This has been said of Nigerian corruption:
24 Ibrahim, John. "Religion and Political Turbulence in Nigeria." The Journal of Modern African Studies 29, no. 1 (1991): 115-136. p. 127 25 (Barkindo 1993, 96)
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Public officials demand payment of ransom before and/or after performing their
legitimate functions. Businesspeople shortchange their customers through unfair dealings,
while law-enforcement agents demand bribes and collaborate with fraudulent elements in
the society. Employee theft is a common occurrence in many organizations.26
Police corruption is rampant. Police and security forces are known to extort citizens.27 The police
have sat up roadblocks and then demanded bribes to be let through.28
The state has proven to be an inadequate actor to address Nigeria's mounting social and
economic woes. Citizens have recognized that trying to work with the government is largely
unproductive. Many Muslims have turned towards Islam in the hopes that it will be more
effective in providing basic material needs. One scholar has pointed out that Nigerian society
contains many themes that are correlated to a rise in Islamic fundamentalism: the presence of oil,
corrupt government, a history of Islam, and a colonial legacy.29
Islamic Fundamentalism and the Maitatsine Uprisings
Since 1970, Nigeria has seen a surge in the importance of Islam for its Muslim citizens.
Many have recognized the failure of their Nigerian identity and have returned to one that had
historically provided better for them. Muslim youth organizations have been an important means
of mobilizing citizens.30 In 1980, the Muslim Student Society prepared a seminar in Kano that
investigated successful Islamic reform movements, such as Usman Dan Fodio's jihad and
Ayatollah Khomeini's revolution in Iran.
26 Afolabi, Gabriel. "Corruption in Contemporary Nigeria." DLSU Business & Economics Review 19, no. 2 (2010): 53-61. p.53 27 "Nigeria Police Corruption Report." Africa Research Bulletin: Political, Social and Cultural Series 47, no. 8 (2010): 18517B. 28 Walker, Andrew. "What is Boko Haram?" United States Institute of Peace, no. Special Report 208 (June 2012): 1-15. p. 12 29 (Thomson 2012, 47) 30 (Barkindo 1993, 99)
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Prior to 1970, there was only one major mosque in Kano. Since then, many mosques have
been built throughout the city.31 The mosque has become more important for daily life. Today it
is used for much more than the daily call to prayer. Many mosques host lectures and debates on
Islamic issues. There has also been a marked increase in attendance to daily prayers, especially
by the youth and women.32 Many are disposing of their Western garments in favor of traditional
Muslim fashions.
These changes have not been enough for some of the more zealous Nigerian Islamists.
One of these men was Mohammed Marwa, who gained the nickname Maitatsine. He advocated
for the creation of an Islamic state.33 Maitatsine accepted violence as a legitimate means of
creating this. His goals were similar to those of Usman Dan Fodio; both were "directed at
purifying and reforming Muslim society rather than at fighting the infidel."34
Maitatsine was born in northern Cameroon in a town that was once part of the Sokoto
Caliphate. He spent his adult life in Kano as a religious teacher.35 Much of his support came
from individuals who suffered in the economy that resulted from the oil boom. In particular he
gained support from the almajirai. These young beggars were attracted to his message because he
condemned the newly rich and guaranteed salvation to the pious Muslims. At the height of his
support, Maitatsine had 10,000 followers.36 Moderate Muslim scholars condemned him and his
followers as un-Islamic.
31 Ibid., p. 100 32 Ibid., p. 103 33 Hickey, Raymond. "The 1982 Maitatsine Uprising in Nigeria: A Note." African Affairs 83, no. 331 (1984): 251-256. p. 252 34 Ibid. p. 251 35 Ibid., p. 252 36 Kenny, Joseph. "Sharia and Christianity in Nigeria: Islam and a Secular State." Journal of Religion in Africa 26, no. 4 (1996): 338-364. p.344
Sellers 10
The 1980 Maitatsine riots in Kano climaxed in November and December. The Nigerian
Armed Forces were brought in to put it down after hundreds of citizens were killed by rioters.37
Maitatsine and thousands of his followers were killed in the military's assault. His death and the
loss of so many followers did not deter the movement. Similar uprisings occurred that had to be
halted by military intervention: 1982 in Kaduna and Bulumkutu; 1984 in Yola; and 1985 in
Bauchi.38 The fact that violence subsisted long after the death of the sect's leader shows that the
cause was much deeper than simply the charismatic leadership of Mohammed Marwa.
Many of the sources of discontent were economic dislocation, deprivation, and income
inequalities that came about due to the oil boom.39 Adesoji adds spiritual based factors as well.
He says there was dissatisfaction with the secular nature of the Nigerian state.40 The Iranian
revolution in 1979 also became an important factor in influencing radical Islamists across the
globe. It became a model for how a Western backed ineffective secular government could be
ousted by Islamic forces and replaced by a state that is governed by Sharia.
Despite an inadequate response from the Nigerian government, violence began to subside
for a time. However in 1984, Raymond Hickey forecasted an accurate future for Nigeria:
Although quickly forgotten by the world press and overshadowed by the subsequent
expulsion of illegal aliens, the recent elections and coup, the religious disturbances which
broke out in Maidugari and other Northern Nigerian cities... were probably more
portentous for the future of the country than the other more publicized events.41
37 Hiskett, Mervyn. "The Maitatsine Riots in Kano, 1980: An Assessment." Journal of Religion in Africa 17, no. 3 (1987): 209-223. p. 209 38 (Adesoji, The Boko Haram Uprising and Islamic Revivalism in Nigeria 2010, 96) 39 (Hiskett 1987, 210) 40 (Adesoji, The Boko Haram Uprising and Islamic Revivalism in Nigeria 2010, 98) 41 (Hickey 1984, 251)
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Recent history has proven him to be correct as Boko Haram emerged early in the 21st century as
a major hindrance to the Nigerian state.
Boko Haram
The organization of Boko Haram has been around for a while, maybe as long as 15
years.42 During that time it has operated under many different names. When it was created in the
1990's by Mohammed Yusuf it was called ahl al-sunna wa-l-jama‘a wa-lhijra. Early in the 2000's
it began to be common to refer to the group as Boko Haram. Boko is a Hausa word that translates
to book, and Haram is an Arabic word meaning sinful or ungodly. Taken together it means,
"Western education is sinful."43 Boko Haram opposes Western education, western culture, and
modern science. Its goal is to replace the Nigerian state with an Islamic caliphate that adheres to
strict Sharia law. The former United States ambassador to Nigeria, John Cambell said Boko
Haram is:
a movement of grassroots anger among northern people at the continuing deprivation and
poverty in the north... also [it is] a core group of Mohammed Yusuf's followers... the
group could be seen as a personality cult, an Islamic millenarianist sect, inspired by a
heretical but charismatic preacher.44
Like Maitatsine before it, Boko Haram received support from the almajirai. Also, Boko Haram
seems to attempt to fill state functions such as providing welfare handouts, job training,
employment, and community resources. It hopes that this state-like organization will grow and
supersede the Nigerian federal government. Though one should not focus on this too much
because most of their resources appear to go towards acts of violence across northern Nigeria.
42 (Adesoji, The Boko Haram Uprising and Islamic Revivalism in Nigeria 2010, 98) 43 Ibid., p.100 44 Walker, Andrew. "What is Boko Haram?" United States Institute of Peace, no. Special Report 208 (June 2012): 1-15. p.9
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Early cases of violent action taken by Yusuf's followers often took the form of armed
conflict with security forces, such as in 2004 when 200 Boko Haram members attacked police
stations.45 Violence began to swell by 2009 after security forces captured an important hideout in
Bauchi. From July 25 to July 30, rioting spread across the states of Buachi, Kano, Yobe, and
Borno. Around 1000 people were killed and many building were destroyed including police
stations, prisons, government offices, schools and churches.46 Yusuf was among those who were
killed; he was purportedly executed in police custody.
Attacks against police are viewed favorably because of the anger over police extortion at
roadblocks.47 The police have even shot many people at roadblocks. Churches also seem to be a
logical target for Boko Haram because they are seen to be a threat to Muslim hegemony. Also
attacks on government buildings fits with the hostility towards the Nigerian state.
Similar to Maitatsine, after Yusuf's death, Boko Haram did not disappear. In fact attacks
have become more violent and suicide attacks have become a staple tactic of Boko Haram. One
set of coordinated attacks in Kano in January slaughtered over 100 people.48 They attacked
"eight government security buildings... including the regional police headquarters, two local
police stations, the local headquarters of the State Security Service, the home of a police
official and the state police command headquarters." There were reports of more than 30
bomb blasts at this incident. Even after these attacks, it is not uncommon to find residents
45 Loimeier, Roman. "Boko Haram: The Development of a Militant Religious Movement in Nigeria." Africa Spectrum 47, no. 2 (2012): 137-155. p. 150 46 (Adesoji, The Boko Haram Uprising and Islamic Revivalism in Nigeria 2010, 98) 47 (Loimeier 2012, 151) 48 Mojeed, Musikilu. "More Than 100 Killed by a Radical Group in Nigeria." New York Times, January 21, 2012: Web.
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who "voice their heated discontent, not with Boko Haram, but with what they describe as a
shared enemy: the Nigerian state, seen by the poor here as a purveyor of inequality."49
Connections to International Terrorist Organizations
There is a growing fear that Boko already has or will directly ally itself with foreign
terrorists such as al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) or Somlia's Al Shabaab. Nigeria as a
whole became a focus following the attempted bombing of a civilian airline traveling from
Amsterdam to Detroit on Christmas day. The attempted bomber, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab,
was born in Lagos, Nigeria. This lead many observers to aim a spotlight at Nigeria. They believe
it to be a expanding hotbed of international terrorists. Abdulmutallab was not a Boko Haram
member, nor was he radicalized in Nigeria. It was in Yemen that he received training and support
from al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula.50
In 2011, Boko Haram rammed through two security barriers and crashed a car into the
United Nations building in Abuja that exploded and killed 18 people.51 This was the first, and
still only, time that Boko Haram has targeted a foreign entity. Western, especially American,
observers have used this attack to place Boko Haram squarely in collaboration with al Qaeda.
The U.S. House of Representatives rushed to judgment when they published a report titled,
"Boko Haram: Emerging Threat to the U.S. Homeland."52 In this document they cite the
commander of AFRICOM, U.S. Army General Carter Ham, saying that there is a link between al
Shabaab and Boko Haram. He alleges that the mastermind behind the U.N. attack returned from
49 Nossiter, Adam. "In Nigeria, a Deadly Group's Rage Has Local Roots." New York Times, February 25, 2012: Web. 50 (Thomson 2012, 54) 51 Murray, Senan and Adam Nossiter. "Suicide Bomber Attacks U.N. Building in Nigeria." New York Times, August 26, 2011: Web. 52 United States. Boko Haram: Emerging Threat to the U.S. Homeland. Washington: Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives, 2011.
Sellers 14
Somalia shortly before. However, General Ham and the rest of the document fails to give any
proof of such a link. It remains speculation.
There have been some weak connections that seem plausible between Boko Haram and
AQIM. After 2009 it appears that some Boko Haram members received temporary sanctuary in
Algeria or Mauritania from AQIM.53 Allegedly they also received training at AQIM camps
during this time. Boko Haram spokesmen claim that they have sent members to various al Qaeda
allied camps in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Iraq, Mauritania, and Algeria.54 Adesoji
speculates that these claims are one of three things: true statements about a authentic
cooperation; an acknowledgment their inspiration; or a means of attracting sympathy and support
from these groups.
It has only been after the alleged interaction with AQIM that Boko Haram began utilizing
suicide bombers. AQIM and al Shabaab are the only other groups in Africa to regularly utilize
suicide attacks.55 Perhaps Boko Haram did receive direct training from al Qaeda affiliates and
perhaps this is why they have shifted their tactics towards suicide bombings. However this is a
spurious link. There has been no real indication that Boko Haram has shifted its strategy past
Nigeria. There is no evidence that Boko Haram takes orders from al Qaeda. This merely means
that al Qaeda is supportive of Boko Haram's goals. This situation is not unlike when the United
States trains other foreign militaries such as Nigeria's.
Boko Haram still operates under its own directives and is independent from control from
foreign actors. However, there is a threat of unification that should be monitored. Ideologically,
53 (Gourley 2012, 10) 54 (Adesoji, The Boko Haram Uprising and Islamic Revivalism in Nigeria 2010, 101) 55 (Thomson 2012, 53)
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Boko Haram and al Qaeda are suitable allies.56 Gourley points out that Nigeria fits many of the
characteristics of other al Qaeda havens: underdevelopment, incompetent governance, and a
populace is cynical towards the government. However, Boko Haram exists because of a
protracted history of discontent in the Nigerian Muslim community, not because of foreign
organization. Valarie Thomson has this to say:
The fact remains that [Boko Haram] has yet to carry out attacks outside of its strong
holds in the north and central regions of Nigeria. Attack in regions where a group has
sympathy and support from the local population and where the targets are familiar and
accessible are not indicators of transnational capability.57
Until it proves otherwise, Boko Haram should be understood as a Nigerian actor with goals that
are specific to Nigeria.
Conclusion
The causes of Boko Haram and its support among many northern Muslims is strongly
embedded in centuries of history. Eradicating Boko Haram will not eliminate religious violence
in Nigeria. Doing so without at least addressing the socio-economic divide will only inflame the
anger and distrust of the masses. Many of the goals of Boko Haram are favorably viewed by
millions of Nigerians. Without an improvement, there will continue to be a massive pool for
radical leaders to find willing citizens to participate in violent rebellion.
Oil revenue must be more equitably shared among Nigerians and the economy must be
diversified. Society will crumble around gated mansions if nothing is done. This can only happen
if bureaucratic and police corruption can be greatly reduced. The rule of law must take precedent
56 (Gourley 2012, 9) 57 (Thomson 2012, 55)
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over the rule of man. If this can be done then there may be hope. However, it is unclear if the
radical members of the Muslim community will ever accept secular rule. If this proves to be the
case then Nigeria may be forced to go the way of Sudan.
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