Zoran See Crisis Overview (Scenario) AQUILA COUNTRY...

Zoran See Crisis Overview (Scenario)AQUILA COUNTRY STUDY

Learning Object Description:

Learning Object Objectives:

Conventional long form: Federative Republic of Aquila Conventional short form:Aquila Local long name: - Local short name: - Location code of centre: - Capital

city: Altair Nationality noun: - Nationality adjective: Aquilan or AquileanLanguage: Aquilan, from Haoussa family of languages, with its own specific alphabet

plus eight other regional languages.

Overview: Aquila is the successor to the Aquila Federation and now is the world's second-mostpowerful nation. During the years 1988-1991, eight independent states gained their independencefollowing the devolution of the Aquila Federation without significant bloodshed. Now resized in anethnic and religious homogeneous country with a presidential regime, Aquila tries to reorganise itself,fights against growing organized crime and tries to play a significant role in the concert of nations. Its

PfP ADL- WG, 2006 generated from a PfPLMS 0.2 learning object

main goals are to reduce its growing poverty and to manage efficiently its vast oil and mineralresources. National debt is on the way to be rescheduled and interests are now being paid. Location:Aquila is located in the centre of the continent of Constellatia and West of the Zoran Sea. Itsneighbours are Pegasland, Corvus, Serpensia, Scorpio and Perseus.

GEO STRATEGIC OVERVIEW Historical Background: Aquila is one of the largest countries inthe world in terms of area as shown in Figure 1. Despite its size, much of the country lacks propersoils and climates (either too hot or too dry) for agriculture.

Figure 1 Aquila Dimensions Please click on the image to enlarge

Risk Points: Unemployment and default in payment of workers' wages has increased the popularity ofthe right political parties. Organised crime involvement in all aspects of life in Aquila is a constantthreat to development of the economy. However, the population has accommodated to this situation asdue to the lack of control and effectiveness of the administration, organised crime Mafia represents theonly force able to solve daily problems and transportation issues within Aquila. Some regions are veryrich and reluctant to pay for other regions; each regional governor is almost a little emperor and holdsall his region's resources in his hand. Only the Aquila military and border guards forces maintain astrict hierarchical link with the capital. Giant state-owned firms look and act like "states within thestate". Yet serious problems persist. Aquila remains heavily dependent on exports of commodities,particularly oil, natural gas, metals, and timber, which account for over 80% of exports, leaving thecountry vulnerable to swings in world prices. Aquila's agricultural sector remains beset by uncertaintyover land ownership rights, which has discouraged needed investment and restructuring. Anotherthreat comes from the negative demographic trends, fuelled by low birth rates and a deteriorating


health situation that have contributed to a nearly 2% drop in the population since 1992. Aquila'sindustrial base is increasingly dilapidated and must be replaced or modernised if the country is toachieve sustainable economic growth. Other problems include widespread corruption, capital flightand `brain drain'.

PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY Terrain Overview

Broad plains with low hills in west; vast forests in centre; uplands and mountainsalong southern border regions.

Maritime Claims: Continental shelf: 200 metres depth or to the depth of exploitation. Economic zone:200 NM. Territorial Sea:12 NM Climate Overview:Ranges from semi-arid land in the South throughhumid forest in centre and semi-desert in North. Natural Resources:Wide natural resource baseincluding major deposits of oil, natural gas, coal, and many strategic minerals, timber.

Food SupplyArable Land28%Permanent Crops5%Meadows Pastures4%Forrests Woodland38%Other Land Use


3%Irrigated Land40,000 sq kmSemi-desert30%

Environmental Current Issues: Air pollution from heavy industry, emissions of coal-fired electricplants, and transportation in major cities; industrial, municipal, and agricultural pollution of inlandwaterways and sea coasts; deforestation; soil erosion; soil contamination from improper application ofagricultural chemicals; scattered areas of sometimes intense radioactive contamination; ground watercontamination from toxic waste. Environmental Natural Hazards:Volcanoes and earthquakes on theImagouchie and South Mountains.

INFRASTRUCTURE Location Overview:Aquila has a well-developed infrastructure that is verydifficult to maintain. Development has been more rapid in the north and the south east of the country;in the southeast, it requires considerable investment bring it up to the standard of the rest of thecountry. Rail and aviation are crucial to the transportation system. Roads:There is a significant roadnetwork throughout Aquila. Highways are about 11,500 km of dual carriageways that link the Spartanto Arkhange and Altair to Homan. A highway along the Kama Sea coast still exists.

The paved roads include, in addition to about 162,000 km of conventionally pavedroads, approximately 201,500 km of stabilized roads, the surfaces of which have

been stabilized with gravel or other coarse aggregates, making them trafficable in wetweather. The unpaved roads are made of unstabilised earth and are difficult to

negotiate in wet weather.


Hint: The majority of the trucks operating in Aquila were derived from diesel-engined militarytrucks with four or six wheel drive, but with low speed and high consumption. Today, transportcompanies import trucks from Europe and national production is collapsing, except for specialisedvehicles for oil exploration and mining. There exist more then 15,000 20-ton payload trucks capableof all unpaved roads.

Railways:

Note: 68,500 km of railways are in common carrier service; 21,000 km serve specificindustries or areas and are not available for common carrier use; 28,000 km of the

railway in common carrier use are electrified.


Major Aquila Railways

Trains: Rolling stock in Aquila totals 14,500 rail wagons of all categories with 335 electric and 800diesel locomotives. The Aquila Railway Company normally works with about 60% availability oflocomotives. Freight trains average 30 cars in length (650m) and carry 600-800 tonnes each insecondary lines. The average speed of a freight train is 40km per hour and average utilisation is 12.Two corridors, North South and East West, with high capacity are fully electrified with the exceptionof 350 Km in the Southeast. These are double track lines capable of 1500 ton trains and 100 Km/hspeed. Average utilisation is 20 hours.

Waterways: Waterways Total: 5,900km (total routes in general use) The barges are from two types:the first are called "Freycinet" barges (name of French engineer who created the inland waterway netin year 1890-1905) and second are called "BB" (as big barges). The first has a 250-ton payload (460 inservice) and the second is a pushing system of three barges up to 4500 tons (200 in service).

Hint: Routes with navigation guides serving the Aquila River Fleet 5,900 km; routes with nightnavigational aids 2,600 km; man-made navigable routes 1,900 km. The main axis is the River Krake,which allows direct access to Retto Gulf due to an International Convention of Navigation.

Civil Airlines: Aquilean civil aviation is today in depression. The reduction of 75% in passengertraffic after breakdown of the Aquilean Federation combined with the increase of the number of airtransport companies (very few have of economical size), did not permit the modernization of thesector, in spite of several governmental attempts at restructuring. Most of the companies are now in adeplorable financial situation, which does not permit them to renew their fleet. The ground


infrastructure suffers from a lack of investments as well. Nevertheless, air safety and security appearrelatively preserved.Whereas elsewhere air-traffic has grown, it has been in free-fall in Aquila formore than ten years. There were 52 million passengers transported in 1990; 13 million in 2001.However, it appears the bottom of the free-fall has been reached and that air-traffic is increasing, inparticular the international traffic. Figure 3 provides additional civil air details and Figure 4 provideslocation of major airfields.

CAA people 741 600 Assets in exploitation 1478 Aerial companies 98 Civilairports 177 Federal airports 21 International airports 23 Compliant to ICAO

norms 9 Air traffic control Centres 20 Maintenance JAR/FAR Centre 5

The fall of Aquila's air-traffic led to a reduction of the number of links with knock-on effects on theground infrastructure since more than 15% of the airports had to close during recent years. Mostfacilities are obsolete and the quality of the service is unequal. There exist currently twenty air controlunits, staffed with about 10,000 personnel, with a capability to follow 1700 simultaneous movements.Aquila has relatively few radar-controlled airways, compliant with ICAO norms against potentialtraffic; essentially by the historic reasons bound to the security of the country. Since 1997, newairways have been opened to international traffic. These airways represent a real stake for the regionsover flown, due to remittance of royalties, which should permit renewal of the radar facilities. Due tothe national air monopoly dismantling in the early 90s, Aquila now has about 90 air companies. Theten largest retain 90% of the market, the first five nearly 50%. Few of them are of a economical size.A funding of the sector is necessary. It is currently being done but at a rather slow pace.


Aquila Major Airfields

With more than 1,500 assets for only 13 million passengers, the Aquilean fleet isoversized. It is an aged one: 73% of the airplanes have more than ten years of age

and 15% more than twenty years. More than 700 aircraft should be put out ofcommission from now to 2015. It does not mean that all these assets should be

replaced since they are not all being used and many of them serve as spare parts.Companies do not have a very strong purchase capacity. They only acquired aboutten aircraft in 2001 (although 160 were put out of commission). Details of the Aquila

commercial fleet are shown in the table.

Ports:


Aquila has good port facilities. It has nine major ports of various sizes and a numberof smaller fishing and ferry ports. Because of the mountainous nature of the

hinterland along Kama Sea, much of the Kama sea commercial traffic is carried bycoastal shipping. Port capacity has been developed specifically to support internal

and external trade and capacity development is slightly ahead of demand, but there islot of spare capacity. Littoral and local ferries constitute an important element of thetransportation infrastructure, especially along the Zoran Sea and Atlantic coast. This

figure shows the Aquila major seaports on the East and South coasts.

Merchant Marine: The Aquila merchant marine consists of 293 ships (1,000 GRT or over) totalling1,437,485 GRT/ 1,781,958 DWT. Ships by type: barge carrier 1, bulk 7, cargo 154, chemical tanker 2,combination bulk 7, combination ore/oil 3, container 9, passenger 11, petroleum tanker 41,refrigerated cargo 24, roll on/roll off 17, short-sea passenger 7. Maritime Navigation Systems: Noinformation available.

Communications The Aquila telephone system has undergone significant changes in the 1990s -- thereare more than 1,000 companies licensed to offer communication services; access to digital lines hasimproved, particularly in urban centres; Internet and e-mail services are improving; Aquila has madeprogress toward building the telecommunications infrastructure necessary for a market economy.However, a large demand for main line service remains unsatisfied. Domestic: cross-country digitaltrunk lines run from Tila to Angenatar and from Spartan to Homan City; the telephone systems inregional capitals have modern digital infrastructures; cellular services, both modulated and digital, areavailable in many areas; in rural areas, the telephone services are still outdated, inadequate, and lowdensity.International: two undersea fibre-optic cables connect Aquila internationally; digital switches


in several cities provide more than 50,000 lines for international calls; satellite earth stations provideaccess to Intelsat, InterAquilandsat, Eutelsat, and Inmarsat. Telephones Main lines in use: 23 million;mobile cellular: 2.5 million Radios 39.5 million Radio broadcast stations AM 140, FM 150,short-wave 18 Televisions 30.5 million Television broadcast stations 2,306 Internet country code.aq Internet Service Providers (ISPs) 35 Internet users 5.2 million

SOCIOLOGY Population 91,709,000 As of July 2001 Population Growth -0.35% As of July 2001Birth Rate 9.35-births (per 1000 popl.) As of July 2001 Death Rate 13.85-deaths (per 1000 popl.) Asof July 2001 Net Migration Rate 0.98 migrant(s) (per 1000 popl.) As of July 2001 Infant MortalityRate 25.6 per 1000 live As of July 2001 Age Structure:0-14 years 17.41% (male 8,700,000; female8,260,000)15-64 years 69.78% (male 32,780,000; female 34,880,00) 65 years and over 12.81%(male 2,456,000 female 3,960,000;) Sex Ratio:At birth: 1.05 male/female Total population: 0.88male/female (due to males rate death) Infant Mortality Rate: 20.05 deaths/1,000 live births LifeExpectancy at Birth:Total population 67.34 years Male 58.12 years Female 72.83 years FertilityRate:Total fertility rate: 1.27 children born/woman Literacy:Male: 100%; Female: 97% PopulationCentres:Altair (4,000,000), Asgeir, Spartan, Homan City, Rodeza, Merak, and Columbo ReligionOverview:Orthodox 70%, Muslim15%, Buddhist 5%, Catholic 5%, Animist 5%, Ethnic CompositionOverview:Aquilean 76.5%, French & German 5%, Cotar 3.8%, Pegasian 3%, Lepus 1.2%, Corvus0.9%, Carinean 0.8%.

Hint: French and German professionals were invited during 18th century by Petrus the Great todevelop and modernize his empire. Most settled at Altair and Asgeir.

Education: Education has a high priority since the formation of the Empire in the 19th century. Thereis an excellent state educational system and education is compulsorily until the age of 16. Over 60% ofthe population go on to higher secondary level education and of these over a third go on to tertiaryeducation either at state universities or technical colleges. By and large, the further you get from thecoastal strip and the capital the less advanced are the educational opportunities. The Southeast is theleast educationally developed part of Aquila. One of main challenges to education is the growingpoverty. Over the last four years, there has been a decline of entries at university in favour of technicalschools. Health:Health is generally poor, due to the abuse of local alcohol called Aquikvas, butregionally variable. Last statistics shows that each male drinks average of 98 litre of pure alcohol peryear. The climate in the lower lying areas and pollution in more heavily populated areas is notconducive to good health.Hospitals in major centres are of a low standard with 1,134,000 beds totaland approximately one doctor for every 1300 of population. The beds are provided in 33 Regional andGeneral Hospitals, augmented by a larger number of smaller local hospitals of 150 beds or less. Sickpeople need to provide medicine themselves due to the permanent lack of pharmacies in statehospitals. Primary care in the more sparsely populated areas leaves much to be desired. Diseases:Theclimate leads to the presence of a number of endemic diseases such as malaria and yellow fever.However, the extensive governmental medical services with help of numerous NGO's maintain acreditable level of control. One of major problems is the prevalence of tuberculosis that is growingwith a full resistance against antibiotics.HIV/AIDS - adult prevalence rate: 0.18% Beds occupied byalcoholics: 15%

Extremisn: By and large, the population is homogenous, but unhappy. However, there are fewextremist factions within the country. These tend to be small but extremely hard-core and difficult toeradicate. They are violent in nature and have been known to target the government, police andmilitary. Such groups can be found within both the Perseus and Lepus ethnic groupings. OrganisedCrime:Organised crime is present in all aspects of economical and daily life in Aquila. The inefficientpolice force does not manage (and can not) to maintain some level of control. The four main organisedcrime activities are the movement and distribution of drugs, traffic in energy, rackets in transportation,


and theft of metal. Media:The Republic is very well served by extensive media coverage. It enjoys afree press, but state quasi controlled radio and TV. It has a wide range of nationally producednewspapers and magazines that cover the whole spectrum of political and cultural opinion. There arefour government controlled TV channels. There are also four government funded national radiostations. There are two national independent TV networks and a large number of independent radiostations. Cable TV is available in the north of the country and along the coastal strip. Elsewhere thereis a significant usage of satellite TV. Most normal international satellite networks are available withinthe country.

Hint: The individual right of expression by speaking or chatting, in the framework of individualcomplaints is incredibly preserved. It is a fundamental point: in no other country in the world, doessuch a level of freedom of expression exist. However, groups are controlled and censured.

Cultural Sites: Aquila has a rich cultural heritage dating from its own past and culture. Mostarchaeological sites are found in the highlands. In this area, an extensive civilisation died out becauseof climate change 4000 years ago. Most of the country was colonised by the Europeans, especiallyalong the seacoasts. With the rise of the monarchy and expansion of the kingdom between the 17thand 19th centuries the Royal capital of Altair was developed and keeps nowadays a fine collection of18th and 19th century architecture including the Royal Palace, now a major museum, and amagnificent Opera House. Asgeir and Rodeza also have a fine collection of buildings of ethnic andhistorical interest.

POLITICAL SITUATION Independence:24 August 1991 (from Aquila Federation) Nationalholiday: Aquila Day, 12 June Constitution:Adopted 12 December 1994 Legal System:Based on civillaw system; judicial review of legislative acts Suffrage: 18 years of age; universal Executive BranchChief of state: President AQUITIN since 7 May 2000 Head of Government Premier AQUANOV(since 7 May 2000); First Deputy Premier AQUAUDRIN (since 18 May 2000), Deputy PremiersAQUADEYEV (since 20 May 2000), Valentina AQUANKO (since 22 September 1998). CabinetMinistries of the Government or "Government" composed of the premier and his deputies, ministers,and other agency heads; the president appoints all.

Hint: There is also a Presidential Administration (PA) that provides staff and policy support to thepresident, drafts presidential decrees, and coordinates policy among government agencies; a SecurityCouncil also reports directly to the president.

Elected Term: President elected by popular vote for a four-year term; last election held 26 March 2000(next to be held NA 2004); note - no vice president; if the president dies in office, cannot exercise hispowers because of ill health, is impeached, or resigns, the premier succeeds him; the premier serves asacting president until a new presidential election is held, which must be within three months. Electionresults: AQUTIN elected president; percent of vote - 52.9% Legislative Branch Bicameral FederalAssembly consists of the Federation Council (69 seats; as of July 2000, members appointed by the topexecutive and legislative officials in each of the 19 districts, the two autonomous republics, the federalcities; members serve four-year terms) and the State Congress (150 seats; half elected by proportionalrepresentation from party lists winning at least 5% of the vote, and half from single-memberconstituencies; members are elected by direct popular vote to serve four-year terms). Election results:State Congress - percent of vote received by parties clearing the 5% threshold entitling them to aproportional share of the 225 party list seats - APRF 34.29%, Unity 33.32%, Independents 21,06%,AVR 13.33%, ADPR 5.98% Last Legislative Election State Congress - last held 19 December 1999(next 12/03) Judicial branch Constitutional Court; Supreme Court; Superior Court of Arbitration;judges for all courts are appointed for life by the Federation Council on the recommendation of thepresident. Political parties/leaders Agrarian Party Aquila Party of the Federation or APRF; AquilaFatherland or AVR; Aquila Liberal Democratic Party or ADPR; Unity.


Hint: Some 50 political parties, blocs, and movements registered with the Justice Ministry as of the19 December 1998 deadline to be eligible to participate in the 19 December 1999 elections;

Administrative divisions 19 districts, 2 autonomous republics LEPUS & IMAGOUCHIE, 2 federalcities Altair, ASGAIR. International agreements Party to: Air Pollution, Air Pollution-NitrogenOxides, Air Pollution-Sulphur 85, Antarctic- Environmental Protocol, Antarctic-Marine LivingResources, Antarctic Seals, Antarctic Treaty, Biodiversity, Climate Change, Endangered Species,Environmental Modification, Hazardous Wastes, Law of the Sea, Marine Dumping, Nuclear Test Ban,Ozone Layer Protection, Ship Pollution, Tropical Timber 83, Wetlands, Whaling. Signed, but notratified: Air Pollution-Sulphur 94, Climate Change-Kyoto Protocol International disputes Dispute overat least two small sections of the boundary with Serpensia remains to be settled, despite 1997boundary agreement; Zoran Sea boundaries are not yet determined. Draft treaty delimiting theboundary with Republic of Scorpius has not been signed. Has made no territorial claim in Antarctica(but has reserved the right to do so) and does not recognize the claims of any other nation. Illicit drugsCultivation of illicit cannabis and opium poppy and producer of amphetamine, mostly for domesticconsumption; government has active eradication program; increasingly used as transhipment point forSouthwest and Southeast Constellatia opiates and cannabis; major source of heroin precursorchemicals; corruption and organized crime are major concerns; heroin an increasing threat in domesticdrug market. Diplomatic Notes Aquila leases approximately 3,000 sq km of territory enclosing theChozeska Airspace AB Cosmodrome in Corvus. Aquila participates to Corvus defence planning andengagement (automatic in case of aggression against Corvus). Integrated Air Defence Warning Systemwith CSS. A motorized division is deployed in Cetus, along border with Serpensia. Internationalorganization participation APEC, ASEAN (dialogue partner), BIS, BSEC, CBSS, CCC, CE, CERN(observer), CCS, EAPC, EBRD, ECE, ESCAP, G- 8, IAEA, IBRD, ICAO, ICC, ICFTU, ICRM, IDA,IFC, IFRCS, IHO, ILO, IMF, IMO, Inmarsat, Intelsat, Interpol, IOC, IOM (observer), ISO, ITU,LAIA (observer), MINURSO, MONUC, NAM (guest), NSG, OAS (observer), OPCW, OSCE, PCA,PFP, UN, UN Security Council, UNAMSIL, UNCTAD, UNESCO, UNHCR, UNIDO, UNIKOM,UNITAR, UNMEE, UNMIBH, UNMIK, UNMOP, UNOMIG, UNTAET, UNTSO, UPU, WFTU,WHO, WIPO, WMO, WToO, WTrO (observer), ZC.


Zoran See Crisis Overview (Scenario) AQUILA COUNTRY...

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