Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bankdanskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/link/WeeklyCreditUpdateScand...•...

35
Weekly Credit Update 16 May 2017 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 33 of this report Investment Research www.danskebank.com/CI This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. Louis Landeman +46 8 568 806 02 [email protected]

Transcript of Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bankdanskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/link/WeeklyCreditUpdateScand...•...

Weekly Credit Update

16 May 2017

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 33 of this report

Investment Researchwww.danskebank.com/CI

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors.

Louis Landeman

+46 8 568 806 02

[email protected]

22

- General credit market news and current themes

- Credit indicators

- Scandi investment grade

Contents

- Coverage universe, credit ratings and recommendations

- Scandi high yield/unrated

- Open trade recommendation list and performance

33

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)

What’s on our minds

- General credit market news• Last week was generally supportive for credits, with European indices

moving somewhat tighter on the back of the French presidentialelection and decent economic data. In a speech to the Dutchparliament, Mario Draghi also defended the case of ECB maintainingits aggressive monetary easing and buying of government andcorporate bonds.

• European investment-grade and high-yield funds saw further inflowsand the investment-grade primary market was busy with a total ofEUR42bn of issuance.

• A new report on the default outlook from Moody’s indicates that thedefault rate continues to trend down. For the month of April, theglobal speculative-grade default rate stood at 3.5% vs 4.3% one yearago. Moody’s believes global speculative-grade defaults will come inat 2.6% at year-end 2017 and 2.4% in 12 months.

• On 12 May we published an update on the local currency market inSEK, SEK Credit Market May 2017 - Looking for pockets of value.Credit spreads in the SEK market are tightening and while we are notat the 2015 lows yet, certain segments are beginning to lookexpensive. However, SEK spreads are elevated compared to the EURmarket, notably in investment grade. Consequently, we remainconstructive on the BBB segment and in certain selective names.

44

Credit spreads in the SEK market are on a

tightening trend and while we are not at

the 2015 lows yet, certain segments are

beginning to look expensive. However, SEK

spreads are elevated compared to the

EUR market, notably in investment grade.

Primary issuance from corporates has

exceeded our forecasts, while real estate

represents a smaller share of total

issuance than in previous years.

We are constructive on the BBB segment,

as Q1 earnings of cyclicals have surprised

on the upside, and BBB spreads look

attractive relative to the A segment. In BB,

real estate bonds, primarily with longer

maturities, offer higher spreads than

corporate peers, which enjoy tight

valuations.

New publication: our view on the SEK credit market

Source: Danske Bank Markets

0

20

40

60

80

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD

Bil

lio

ns Corp - Non-financials Corp - Real estate Senior financials Municipals SSA

Top picks: on a relative value basis we find value in the

following (red text indicates names we find expensive):

Large real estate –Castellum

Large corporates – Saab, Industrivärden

Large/mid corporates – Elekta, Tele2 / Husqvarna

Mid corporates – Com Hem, TVO / Getinge

Mid real estate – Victoria Park, FastPartner, Kungsleden

Small corporates – Jefast, Nynas

Senior financials – BPCE, BNP Paribas, Sparebank 1

Nord-Norge

Subordinated financials (Tier 2) – Nordax

Subordinated financials (AT1) – Jyske Bank, Nordea

Issuance by sector

55* Source: Bloomberg pricing. HPR is P(t)/P(0)-1+C*(T) where P(t) is the BID price today, P(0) is the ASK price at initiation of the trade and C*(T) is the coupon returns without re-

investment. Pricing sources used (in order of priority) are DBCR, BGN, BVAL, CBBT and TRACE

Trade recommendations – Open trades (EUR) 1 of 2

Open date Type Trade FX Idea HPR*Z-Spread ∆

(bp)

Benchmark

∆ (bp)Benchmark*

24 Apr 2017 Outright Buy ELENIA 2.875% '20 (EUR) EUR

The Elenia 2.875% 2020 is attractive compared to Nordic utilities. Being ‘BBB’ rated, Elenia trades wider than the ‘BBB-’ fair value curve.

0.1% 4.31 -9.66IBOXX EURO

Utilities

03 Apr 2017 Switch

Switch to SANDSS 3.8% '22

(EUR) from SANDSS FRN '21

(SEK)

EUR

Switch to SANDSS 3.8% '22 (EUR) from SANDSS FRN '21 (SEK). We estimate, based on indicative mid-prices, that a spread pick-up around 40bp is possible to receive.

-1.5% -1.52IBOXX EURO

Industrials

10 Mar 2017 SwitchSwitch to NDASS 2% 21s from

NDASS 4% 20s EUR

NDASS 20s have clearly outperformed NDASS 21s. Now is a good opportunity to take profit on the 20s and pick up the 21s to maintain Nordea exposure.

-0.2% -7.82

23 Feb 2017 Outright Buy SCA Hygiene EUR SCHHYG 2025s trade on the 'BBB-' fair value curve. -1.4% 14.39 1.60

IBOXX EURO

Consumer

Goods

09 Feb 2017 Outright Buy Vestas 2022's EUR

Vestas bonds are trading just tighter than the ‘BB+’ fair value curve, which leaves them with a substantial performance potential compared to the ‘BBB’ fair value curve.

0.9% -10.27 -3.57IBOXX EURO

Industrials

04 Jan 2017 Outright Buy TDC EUR3015 Hybrid EURThe TDC 3015 Hybrids trade attractive relative to other 'BB' rated EUR hybrids.

5.9% -121.60 -54.49

IBOXX EURO

Non Financials

Subordinated

04 Jan 2017 SwitchBuy Sandvik EUR2022 and

EUR2026EUR

Trump could be the trigger for mining bonds. Combined with very attractive valuation of the Sandvik EUR 2022 and EUR 2026 bonds we have become positive on the name.

1.8% -13.90 -17.96

11 Nov 2016 Outright Buy Metso EUR 2022 EUR

Trump could be the trigger for mining bonds. Combined with very attractive valuation of the Metso EUR 2022 bond we recommend to buy the bond.

0.4% 0.27 -17.96

IBOXX EURO

Non Financials

BBB

11 Nov 2016 Outright Buy Outukumpu 2021 EUROutukumpu 2021 trades attractive compared to fair value "B+" EUR industrials curve and we expect further deleveraging.

5.3% -207.49 -13.32IBOXX EURO

Basic Materials

31 Oct 2016 Outright Buy TVO EUR

TVO’s EUR curve trades attractive compared to the fair value ‘BB+’ industrials curve and its SEK curve offers a pick up compared to the EUR curve.

1.7% -35.30 -4.61IBOXX EURO

Utilities

66* Source: Bloomberg pricing. HPR is P(t)/P(0)-1+C*(T) where P(t) is the BID price today, P(0) is the ASK price at initiation of the trade and C*(T) is the coupon returns without re-

investment. Pricing sources used (in order of priority) are DBCR, BGN, BVAL, CBBT and TRACE

Trade recommendations – Open trades (EUR) 2 of 2Open date Type Trade FX Idea HPR*

Z-Spread ∆ (bp)

Benchmark

∆ (bp)Benchmark*

03 Oct 2016 Outright Buy Caruna 1.5% 2023 outright EURBeing ‘BBB+’ rated, Caruna trades between the ‘BBB-’ and the ‘BBB’ curve.

-1.3% -2.84 -5.47IBOXX EURO

Utilities

08 Sep 2016 SwitchBuy Kemira 2022s, fund by

selling Kemira 2019sEUR

The spread differential between the Kemira 2019s and 2022s has widened significantly since the end of 2015. A flattening of the Kemira curve indicates potential for at least 20bp tightening, in our view.

-1.1% 7.27 -1.07IBOXX EURO

Industrials

30 Aug 2016 OutrightBuy Carlsberg EUR 2024

(revisited)EUR

We recommended to buy the Carlsberg EUR2024. The fundamental case has improved further following the H1 16 report from Carlsberg.

-2.2% 8.73 -8.90

IBOXX EURO

Food &

Beverage

30 Aug 2016 Switch

Buy Carlsberg EUR 2024 and

fund it by selling Carlsberg EUR

2019 (revisited)

EUR

We recommended to buy the Carlsberg EUR2024 and fund it by selling the Carlsberg EUR2019. The fundamental case has improved further following the H1 16 report from Carlsberg.

-2.3% 0.04 -8.90

IBOXX EURO

Food &

Beverage

17 Aug 2016 Switch

Switch to Volvo hybrids (call 20s

or 23s) from the EUR Volvo

senior curve

EUR VLVY EUR senior curve prices in an upgrade, the hybrids do not. 6.7% -106.80 -78.67

IBOXX EURO

Non Financials

Subordinated

09 Aug 2016 Switch

Buy DONGAS 3% call 2020 and

fund by selling DONGAS 4.875%

call 2018

EUR

The DONGAS 3% call 2020 have clearly underperformed the DONGAS 4.875% call 2018 in the past six months. This is unjustified given the benign news flow in DONG Energy.

3.6% -49.81 -0.26IBOXX EURO

Utilities

03 Jun 2016 SwitchBuy Maersk EUR 2021 and fund

by selling Maersk EUR 2019EUR Pick-up is c. 40bp for around 1.5 years of maturity extension. 1.9% -36.14 -23.29

IBOXX EURO

Industrials

03 Jun 2016 Outright Buy Maersk EUR 2021 EURMaersk EUR 2021 is trading wider than the BBB- industrial curve versus Maersk’s BBB+/NO rating.

1.9% -36.14 -23.29IBOXX EURO

Industrials

27 May 2016 Buy Carlsberg EUR 2024 EURCarlsberg 2024 is trading significantly wider than the consumer goods’ BBB curve.

2.4% -26.75 -29.16

IBOXX EURO

Food &

Beverage

27 May 2016 Switch

Buy Carlsberg EUR 2024 and

fund it by selling Carlsberg EUR

2019

EUR

Carlsberg 2024 is trading significantly wider than the consumer goods’ BBB curve, whereas Carlsberg 2019 is priced within the consumer goods’ BBB curve.

2.4% -26.75 -29.16

IBOXX EURO

Food &

Beverage

77

Trade recommendations – Open trades (Local currency)

* Source: Bloomberg pricing. HPR is P(t)/P(0)-1+C*(T) where P(t) is the BID price today, P(0) is the ASK price at initiation of the trade and C*(T) is the coupon returns without re-

investment. Pricing sources used (in order of priority) are DBCR, BGN, BVAL, CBBT and TRACE. In case a cell is blank spread and/or price was unavailable at the time of publication.

Open date Type Trade FX Idea HPR*Z-Spread ∆

(bp)Benchmark

∆ (bp)Benchmark*

09 May 2017 SwitchSwitch to DSV 3.5% 22 (DKK)

from DNFSDC 1.375% 22 (EUR)DKK

The DSV 3.5% 22 (DKK) is attractively priced versus the DNFSDC 1.375% '22 (EUR) even allowing for the lower liquidity and the unrated status of DSV.

-1.1% 5.45 1.45IBOXX EURO

Industrials

03 Apr 2017 SwitchSwitch to VLVY FRN 18 (SEK)

from VLVY FRN 18 (EUR)SEK

Switching to VLVY FRN 18 (SEK) from VLVY FRN 18 (EUR), we estimate, based on indicative mid-prices, that a spread pick-up around 22bp is possible to receive.

-0.1% -4.90 -1.52IBOXX EURO

Industrials

03 Apr 2017 Switch

Switch to MAERSK 3.8% 18

(SEK) from MAERSK FRN 19

(EUR)

SEK

Switching to MAERSK 3.8% 18 (SEK) from MAERSK FRN 19 (EUR), we estimate, based on indicative mid-prices, that a spread pick-up around 30bp is possible to receive.

-0.3% 4.59 -1.52IBOXX EURO

Industrials

03 Apr 2017 Switch

Switch to SWEMAT 4.3% 18

(SEK) from SWEMAT 3.9% 17

(EUR)

SEK

Switching to SWEMAT 4.3% 18 (SEK) from SWEMAT 3.9% 17 (EUR), we estimate, based on indicative mid-prices, that a spread pick-up around 38bp is possible to receive.

-0.1% -12.91 -1.52IBOXX EURO

Industrials

03 Apr 2017 Switch

Switch to TVOYFH 3.9% 18

(SEK) from TVOYFH 4.6% 19

(EUR)

SEK

Switching to TVOYFH 3.9% 18 (SEK) from TVOYFH 4.6% 19 (EUR), we estimate, based on indicative mid-prices, that a spread pickup around 55bp is possible to receive.

-0.1% -14.71 -1.52IBOXX EURO

Industrials

31 Mar 2017 Outright Buy Teekay Offshore Partners NOK

Our overweight recommendation on the company's bonds rests on a promising outlook for the company's fleet, an improved balance sheet since last year's financing initiatives and the company's new sustainable strategy. We prefer the NOK-denominated bonds maturing in 2018.

-0.1% 70.69 0.00IBOXX EURO

Energy

07 Feb 2017 Outright Buy Kungsleden 2019s in SEK SEK

Considering Kungsleden's ambition to strengthen its balance sheet, we think a repricing corresponding to around one credit notch is justified.

1.3% -48.05 -11.67

IBOXX EURO

Non Financials

BBB

20 Jan 2017 Outright Buy SAS SEK2019 Conv SEKThe SAS SEK 2019 Conv is attractively priced and backed by a significant cash position of SAS AB.

9.1% -275.04 -10.95IBOXX EURO

Industrials

08 Nov 2016 Outright Buy Castellum 2020s in SEK SEKFollowing the acquisition of Norrporten, Castellum has further strengthened its business risk profile.

1.7% 0.85IBOXX EURO

Industrials

02 Nov 2016 Outright Buy Golar LNG Partners bonds NOK

The LNG shipping market is set for several tenders for long-term contracts in 2017. We find the yield in Golar LNG Partners attractive at current levels and argue the company should catch up with the relative strong performance of peers.

1.36IBOXX EURO

Industrials

21 Oct 2016 Outright Buy Fastpartner 2018s in SEK SEK

FastPartner’s bonds are still trading at generous spread levels and, in our opinion, the bonds should have potential for further tightening.

1.6% 1.80IBOXX EURO

Industrials

15 Sep 2016 Outright Buy Victoria Park 2020s in SEK SEK Building scale through organic growth and acquisitions. 2.7% -2.06IBOXX EURO

Industrials

8

Scandi HY/unrated

99

Table 2. Outstanding bonds

Source (tables): Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source (charts): Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

Buy Teekay Offshore Partners outright – Yield of ~10% with declining risk

We recommend buying Teekay Offshore Partners NOK bonds, on the back of:

A promising outlook for the company’s fleet; multiple newbuilds and conversions

commencing contracts already from Q2 17, substantially improving cash flow.

An improved liquidity and balance sheet since last year’s financing initiatives.

A more sustainable strategy; a shift from growth to execution.

We believe that uncertainty regarding (1) the financing of the remaining capex in

2017, (2) refinancing risk regarding maturing bonds and (3) FPSO units’ maturing

contracts, are all weighing too much on the current bond prices. With the increased

cash flow from the units commencing long-term contracts in 2017, we estimate that

the company should be able to repay the outstanding NOK-bonds at maturity and see

low refinancing risk connected with the unsecured bonds.

Chart 2. TOO’s NOK-bonds and the NOK HY curve

Chart 1. Bond maturity profile (USDm)

11894

300

0

100

200

300

400

500

2017 2018 2019

USD bond (Jul. 2019)

TOP04 (Des. 2018)

TOP05 (Jan. 2019)

TOP02 (Nov. 2018)

HY index curve

TOP05, 945TOP04, 986TOP02, 953

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5M

id s

pre

ad

(bp

s)

Years to maturity

TickerYield to

maturityOutstanding (m) Coupon

Base /

TypeMaturity

TOP02 10.2% NOK 420 5.75% 3MN Nov-18

TOP04 10.3% NOK 800 5.75% 3MN Dec-18

TOP05 9.6% NOK 1,000 4.25% 3MN Jan-19

- 11.0% USD 300 6.00% Fixed Jul-19

Credit metrics 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E

EBITDA (USDm) 456 628 576 667 757

NIBD/EBITDA 4.8x 4.9x 5.1x 4.7x 3.7x

EBITDA interest coverage 5.2x 5.1x 4.1x 4.7x 5.4x

Table 1. Key credit metrics

Published 4 April 2017

1010

Best and worst performers (Nordic coverage universe)- High yield/unrated

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)

1 week in local currencies 1 month in local currencies

1 244

453

439

379

49

16

6

6

3

3

-29

-32

-32

-35

-37

-41

-112

-112

-130

-133

-40004008001200

Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2018

Seadrill Ltd SEK 2019

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019

Seadrill Ltd USD 2020

Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA EUR 2019

Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2019

Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA NOK 2018

Stena AB EUR 2019

Stora Enso OYJ EUR 2019

Stora Enso OYJ EUR 2018

SRV Group OYJ EUR 2021

Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2018

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018

NorCell Sweden Holding 3 AB SEK 2021

SSAB AB EUR 2019

SAS AB SEK 2019

BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2021

BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2022

Fred Olsen Energy ASA NOK 2019

Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay…

Change in local currencies (bp)

338

306

119

35

32

14

13

10

9

8

-5

-5

-6

-7

-10

-13

-17

-20

-251

-653

-800-600-400-2000200400

Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2018

Seadrill Ltd USD 2020

Fred Olsen Energy ASA NOK 2019

Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA EUR 2019

Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay…

Stena AB USD 2024

Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2019

Seadrill Ltd SEK 2019

Stena AB EUR 2019

NorCell Sweden Holding 3 AB SEK 2022

Nokia OYJ EUR 2019

Color Group AS NOK 2019

Ship Finance International Ltd NOK 2019

Vestas Wind Systems A/S EUR 2022

Stolt-Nielsen Ltd NOK 2021

Teekay LNG Partners LP NOK 2020

Color Group AS NOK 2020

SAS AB SEK 2019

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019

Change in local currencies (bp)

1111

Recent Nordic high yield/unrated issuance*

*Excluding increases in existing bond issues (taps)

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

Selected new issues (High yield/unrated)Date Issuer Coupon CCY Volume Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM

5/12/2017 Heimstaden Ab STIB3M +315bps SEK 850 m Perp / / 315

5/5/2017 Norican A/S 4.5% EUR 340 m May/23 (P)B / B2e / 4.5%

5/4/2017 Banca Monte Dei Paschi S EUR003M +85bps EUR 200 m Jan/20 / B2 * / B- * 85

5/3/2017 Banca Monte Dei Paschi S EUR003M +85bps EUR 300 m Jul/21 / B2 * / B- * 85

5/3/2017 Gunnebo Industrier Ab STIB3M +500bps SEK 600 m May/20 / / 500

5/3/2017 Hemfosa Fastigheter Ab STIB3M +280bps SEK 250 m Dec/19 / /

4/21/2017 Nomad Foods Bondco Plc 3.25% EUR 400 m May/24 BB- / B1 / 351

3/30/2017 Jyske Bank A/S 2.25% EUR 300 m Apr/29 BBB / A3 / 190

3/29/2017 Ssab Ab STIB3M +340bps SEK 1 000 m Apr/22 B+ / / 340

3/29/2017 Samhallsbyggnadsbolag STIB3M +600bps SEK 1 350 m Apr/20 / / 600

3/29/2017 Viking Redningstjeneste NIBOR3M +625bps NOK 500 m Apr/21 / / 625

3/29/2017 Viking Redningstjeneste 10% SEK 207 m Jul/21 / / 1000

3/27/2017 Kvalitena Ab STIB3M +600bps SEK 800 m Sep/20 / / 600

3/27/2017 Mariefjard Ab STIB3M +600bps SEK 300 m Mar/21 / / 600

3/24/2017 Ya Bank As NIBOR3M +133bps NOK 400 m Apr/19 / / 133

3/24/2017 Protector Forsikring Asa NIBOR3M +290bps NOK 400 m Mar/47 / / 290

3/24/2017 Protector Forsikring Asa NIBOR3M +500bps NOK 350 m PERP / / 500

3/23/2017 Crayon Group Holding As 6.46% NOK 328 m Apr/20 / / 550

3/23/2017 Crayon Group Holding As NIBOR3M +550bps NOK 600 m Apr/20 / / 550

3/22/2017 Koggbron Projeckt Ab 11.5% NOK 120 m Mar/19 / / -

3/21/2017 Atrium Ljungberg Ab STIB3M +77bps SEK 300 m Mar/20 / Baa2 / 77

1212

Company news from the past week (high yield/unrated)

Source: Danske Bank Markets

Name News Implication

Technopolis

Technopolis (MW) showed a satisfactory operating performance in Q1, with y/y growth supported by previously made acquisitions. Thanks to the rights issue in September last year the company’s leverage declined, with a net LTV of 55% at end March (year-end 2016: 56%). Over time we expect the company to pursue growth initiatives, while simultaneously continuing to divest selective assets in Finland. Interestingly, Technopolis said that it has initiated a review of its strategy and financial targets that is to be completed in June. We see the Technopolis EUR 2020 bond as fairly valued relative to sector peers and versus the BB industrial curve and maintain our Marketweightrecommendation.

Credit neutral

SAS

SAS (OW) reported traffic numbers for April that were slightly weaker than expected. Passenger traffic increased by 16% y/y on a capacity that increased 7% y/y, which meant that the load factor increased 6pp to 76%. Despite the higher loads average ticket prices declined 7% y/y, which was slightly disappointing after Norwegian Airlines reported a rise in average ticket prices for April. However, the traffic numbers are affected by the timing of Easter and hence we need to see May/June numbers to put this into perspective. Overall nothing that changes our view on SAS.

Credit neutral

13

Scandi investment grade

1414

Chart 1. Relative value, indicative mid spreads Chart 2. Credit spread development

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

Buy Elenia 2.875% 2020 outright (Published 24 April 2017)

Attractive compared to peers

Buy NOKIA 2019 USD, trading at wide margin to Nokia 2019 EUR

Published on 23 May 2016

Key arguments for the trade

• The Elenia 2.875% 2020 is attractive compared to Nordic utilities. Being ‘BBB’ rated, Elenia trades wider than the ‘BBB-’ fair value curve.

• We believe Elenia trades at wide levels partly due to a lack of name recognition and partly because of low liquidity.

• Elenia’s business risk profile is excellent. This is because 85% of its earnings originate from Finnish power distribution activities. Income from these assets is fully regulated by the Finnish authorities. This provides a very high degree of earnings and cash flow visibility in the short to medium term.

• The remaining 15% of earnings comes from the unregulated but very stable heating segment.

• Elenia has a solid earnings outlook on the back of the recently changed regulatory framework in Finland for distribution companies.

• Elenia is the result of a leveraged acquisition, with infrastructure and pension funds acquiring Vattenfall’s Finnish grid in a leveraged transaction. This has made the ownership structure and corporate structure relatively complex. We consider inter-creditor agreements and covenant protections adequate to offset the complexity risks.

• In spite of the high leverage, we find it unjustified that the regulated Finnish distribution companies are trading at such a high premium to the larger and more risky (in terms of business risk) Nordic unregulated utilities.

• See Post result update - Elenia, 24 April 2017, and trade recommendation

VATFAL 6.75% '19

VATFAL 6.25% '21

VATFAL 5.375% '24

VATFAL 5% '18

TVOYFH 4.625% '19

TVOYFH 2.5% '21

STATK 6.625% '19

STATK 2.5% '22

STATK 1.5% '23

STATK 1.125% '25STATK 1.125% '25

NESVFH 4% '19

NESVFH 2.125% '22

FUMVFH 6% '19

FUMVFH 4% '21

FUMVFH 2.25% '22

FINPOW 3.5% '24

ELLEVI 2.24% '24

ELENIA 2.875% '20

DONGAS 6.5% '19

DONGAS 4.875% '21

DONGAS 2.625% '22

CARUNA 1.5% '23Utilities BBB+

Utilities BBB

Utilities BBB-Industrials BB+

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Mid Spread (EUR)*

YTW**

* Z-spreads. Discount margin for floaters. Swapped to indicated currency. ** Years-to-worstNote: Fair value curve(s) based on Danske Bank Markets' (mid) peer group of European issuers

(BB+ S/NR/BBB NO)

(NR/NR/NR)

(BBB+ NO/A3 NO/BBB+ S)(BBB+ S/Baa1 S/BBB+ S)

(A- NO/Baa1 S/BBB+ S)

(BBB S/NR/NR)

(BBB+ S/NR/NR)

(BBB+ S/Baa1 S/BBB+ S)

(AA- S/A1 PO/AA- S)

(SEK) (BBB/NR/NR)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Dec-2016 Jan-2017 Feb-2017 Mar-2017 Mar-2017 Apr-2017

ASW Issue Currency

CARUNA EUR 1.5% 2023 ELENIA 42849 2.875% 2020 IBOXX EURO Utilities

1515

Best and worst performers (Nordic coverage universe)- Investment grade

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)

1 week in local currencies 1 month in local currencies

56

26

15

11

9

9

8

8

7

6

-4

-4

-4

-5

-5

-6

-6

-10

-20

-21

-40-200204060

Essity AB EUR 2023

Fastighets AB Balder SEK 2017

Statkraft AS NOK 2025

Essity AB EUR 2020

Vattenfall AB EUR 2018

Telia Co AB EUR 2020

Telia Co AB EUR 2019

Telia Co AB EUR 2027

SBAB Bank AB EUR 2018

SKF AB EUR 2018

Swedbank AB SEK 2020

Telia Co AB EUR 2035

Akelius Residential Property AB EUR…

G4S International Finance PLC EUR 2018

SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA NOK 2020

Fastighets AB Balder EUR 2025

Teollisuuden Voima Oyj EUR 2025

Fastighets AB Balder EUR 2022

TDC A/S EUR 2027

Jyske Bank A/S EUR 2029

Change in local currencies (bp)

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-2

-2

-3

-4

-8

-10-50510

Telia Co AB EUR 2027

Investor AB EUR 2018

Telia Co AB EUR 2019

Electrolux AB EUR 2019

Statkraft AS NOK 2025

Telia Co AB EUR 2020

Metso OYJ EUR 2019

Akelius Residential Property AB SEK…

Telia Co AB EUR 2021

Husqvarna AB SEK 2017

Statkraft AS EUR 2022

Fastighets AB Balder EUR 2025

Svenska Handelsbanken AB EUR 2022

Akelius Residential Property AB EUR…

Akelius Residential Property AB EUR…

Fastighets AB Balder EUR 2022

Telia Co AB EUR 2025

Essity AB EUR 2020

SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA NOK 2020

Jyske Bank A/S EUR 2029

Change in local currencies (bp)

1616

Selected new investment-grade issues**

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

*Estimated

**Excluding increases in existing bond issues (taps)

Selected new issues (Investment Grade)

Date Issuer Coupon CCY Volume Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM

5/12/2017 Societe Generale 3.75% USD 20 m May/27 A / A2 / A

5/12/2017 Societe Generale EUR003M +80bps EUR 1 000 m May/24 A / Baa3e / Ae

5/10/2017 General Electric Co 2.125% EUR 2 000 m May/37 AA- / A1e / AA-

5/10/2017 General Electric Co 1.5% EUR 2 250 m May/29 AA- / A1e / AA- 55

5/10/2017 General Electric Co 0.375% EUR 1 750 m May/22 AA- / A1e / AA- 14

5/10/2017 General Electric Co 0.875% EUR 2 000 m May/25 AA- / A1e / AA-

1717

Company news from the past week (Investment grade)

Source: Danske Bank Markets

AP Moeller Maersk

APMM (MW). In an interview with Bloomberg APMM’s CFO Jakob Stausholm commented on the corporate bond market stating that bonds will continue to remain an important source of financing for Maersk: ‘It’s a bit complicated to issue bonds as you need an open window and right now APMM is working on a lot of things (i.e. separation of Energy businesses) so finding an open window isn’t easy’. The CFO also stated that the USD4bn banking facility to finance the acquisition of Hamburg Sud was the right solution, as APMM could tailor-make it so it fitted with the expected cash flow. Furthermore, he said that ‘we are well financed with a long maturity profile on our debt so our financing doesn’t require a lot of new issuance’. Lastly, Stausholm reiterated a commitment to keeping the company’s investment grade rating (currently BBB/NO; Baa2/Neg.). One could conclude from the interview that APMM is likely to stay side-lined regarding new issuance until a decision – and hence clarification for credit investors – has been made regarding the separation of the Energy businesses. The deadline for this is end-2018.

Credit neutral

Schibsted

Schibsted (MW) has announced that it is increasing its ownership from 25% to 50% in OLX.com, which is the largest Brazilian online classified site, with 6.3m daily active users, corresponding to 5% of the daily reach in Brazil. Moreover, Schibsted increases its ownership from 50% to 100% in Yapo.cl, an online classified site in Chile. Schibsted delivered decent Q1 17 figures along with the news of the acquisition, with revenues (NOK4bn) and EBITDA (NOK434m) 3% higher in Q1 17 than in Q1 16. The online classified segment saw y/y revenue growth of 20% in France, Norway and Spain, whereas growth in Sweden and other developed markets was more moderate at 3% and 12%, respectively. Management has also indicated a revenue growth in the range of 15-20% over the next three to five years. Despite the encouraging Q1 report, we believe that the major transaction news has negative credit implications and deteriorates the credit profile in the shorter term. Our Marketweightrecommendation on the outstanding bonds is under review. Next Schibsted bond maturity, however, does not take place before 2019, implying that the company has sufficient time to improve its leverage profile ahead of the forthcoming bond redemptions/refinancing.

Credit negative

1818

Company news from the past week (Investment grade)

Source: Danske Bank Markets

Statkraft

Statkraft (MW) has received its new dividend policy from the Norwegian government. Going forward, Statkraft should pay 85% of realised profit from its Norwegian hydropower business and only 25% on all other activities. This marks a positive shift compared to before, when Statkraft paid 85% on realised profits in all its business areas. In 2016, this policy would not have made a difference, because the Norwegian hydropower business was the only segment providing a meaningful positive result. The aggregate of the remaining segments was negative due to impairments. However, this new dividend policy will likely lead to lower dividend payments compared to the old policy. This is credit positive for Statkraft, partly because of higher future free cash flows and partly because this policy is a testament to the Norwegian government’s continued support of Statkraft.

Credit positive

Nykredit Realkredit

Nykredit Realkredit (No recommendation). Very strong Q1 17 result with an upgrade of guidanceLooking through the P/L, income from core business increased to DKK3.343m in Q1 17 corresponding to 4.5% q/q and 22.7%. The increase was driven by higher administration margin income and a good result in Nykredit Bank. Bank lending increased more than 2% in Q1 17 alone. Operating costs were down to DKK1.178m or 1.8% q/q resulting in a cost income ratio of 34.1% -now one of the lowest in the industry. Small impairment losses on mortgage lending of DKK33m – loan loss reversals in Nykredit Bank of DKK54m. Profit from core business ended at DKK2.186m. Add to that a positive value adjustment on the swap legacy portfolio of DKK337m partly due to higher interest rates and an investment portfolio income of DKK465m and we end up with profit after tax of DKK2.349m. That corresponds to ROE of 13.5% (Nykredit guided for 11% before tax under normal interest rate conditions). Total capital ratio increased to 23.9% in Q1 17 from 23% in Q4 16. The CET1 ratio increased to 19.4% from 18.9% in Q4 17 versus Nykredit’s target of 17.5%.Nykredit now expects that profit from core business in 2017 will increase compared with 2016 (before profit was seen on a level with 2016). No news on the IPO plan.

Credit positive

ICA

ICA (MW). Credit-neutral Q1 report from ICA with figures overall in line with market expectations, reflecting sales growth of 1% y/y and an adj. EBIT growth of 4% y/y. Adj. leverage was largely unchanged q/q at 2.5x, but improved from 2.9x a year ago, boosted by a positive cash flow effect of SEK1.9bn from real estate divestments. On a reported basis, leverage was 1.2x, compared to ICA’s capital structure target of 2.0x. ICA has guided for a SEK1bn increase in capex this year (from SEK2.5bn last year) and the Q1 capex increased from SEK400m a year ago to SEK628m. We do, however, not expect this to put pressure on debt metrics as it is offset by the recent real estate divestment in Norway. We have a Marketweight recommendation on ICA, reflecting spreads of ICA’s bonds trading in line with the SEK ‘BBB’ curve.

Credit neutral

19Credit Indicators

Credit indicators

2020

Chart pack: euro spreads and returns

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices

Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices

IG total return, iBoxx indices, 2016-01=100

HY total return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2016-01=100

2121

Chart pack: relative value

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

iTraxx vs iBoxx

Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit) Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)

2222

Chart pack: general market development

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

European swap and government yields

Euro swap curve spread

3M Libor, US, Euro area, Sweden and Norway

EUR/USD basis swaps

2323

Chart pack: funds flow

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Europe, net sales

Sweden, net sales

US, net sales

Norway, net sales

2424

Chart pack: macro

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted

Euro area y/y change in bank lending

Purchasing Manager Indices

Euro area lending standards

2525

Chart pack: cash versus CDS

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Sub financials cash vs. CDS Senior financials cash vs. CDS

iTraxx main vs. Iboxx non-financials A iTraxx main vs. Iboxx non-financials BBB

26

Coverage universe, credit ratings

and recommendations

2727

Our coverage 1 of 5

Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch

Sector Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAkelius Residential Property Ab BBB- Pos REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. MobergAktia Bank Plc A- Stable A3 Pos BANKS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærAlandsbanken Abp BBB Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærAmbu A/S HEALTHCARE J. Magnussen / M. Rosendal OVERWEIGHTAp Moller - Maersk A/S BBB Neg Baa2 Neg SHIPPING B. Børsting/J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTArla Foods Amba CONSUMER GOODS M. Rosendal / B. Børsting MARKETWEIGHTAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable A Stable MACHINERY & HEAVY INDUSTRIALS B. Børsting / M. Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTAvinor As AA- Neg A1 Stable TRANSPORTATION H. Syed/ B. Børsting MARKETWEIGHTBalder BBB Stable Baa3 Stable REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg MARKETWEIGHTBeerenberg Holdco Ii As ENERGY H.Syed / B. EngebretsenBillerudkorsnas Ab MATERIALS M. Rosendal / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTBonum Pankki Oyj BBB Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Stable BBB Stable CONSUMER GOODS B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTCaruna Networks Oy BBB+ Stable UTILITIES J.Magnussen / L.Landeman OVERWEIGHTCastellum Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg OVERWEIGHTCitycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa1 Stable REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg UNDERWEIGHTColor Group As TRANSPORTATION B. Børsting / M. Rosendal OVERWEIGHTCom Hem Holding Ab BB Pos TMT M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen OVERWEIGHTCorem Property Group Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg UNDERWEIGHTCrayon Group Holding As SERVICES & IT H. Syed / B. Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTDanfoss A/S BBB Stable MACHINERY & HEAVY INDUSTRIALS B. Børsting / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTDfds A/S SHIPPING B. Børsting / M. Rosendal OVERWEIGHTDlg Finance As CONSUMER GOODS M. Rosendal / B. Børsting MARKETWEIGHTDna Oyj TMT M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen OVERWEIGHTDnb Bank Asa A+ Stable Aa2 Neg BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær UNDERWEIGHTDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Neg BBB+ Stable UTILITIES J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTDsv A/S TRANSPORTATION B. Børsting / M. Rosendal OVERWEIGHTEg Holding SERVICES & IT J. Magnussen / B. Børsting OVERWEIGHTEika Boligkreditt As BANKS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærEika Forsikring As INSURANCE K. Jensen / J. DamkjærEika Gruppen As FINANCIALS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærElectrolux Ab A- Stable Wr WD CONSUMER GOODS A. Moberg / B. Børsting MARKETWEIGHT

Recomm.S&P Moody's Fitch

2828

Our coverage 2 of 5

Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch

Sector Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookElekta Ab HEALTHCARE A. Moberg / L. Landeman OVERWEIGHTElenia Oy BBB UTILITIES J. Magnussen / L. Landeman OVERWEIGHTElisa Oyj BBB+ Stable Baa2 Stable TMT M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTEllevio Ab UTILITIES J.Magnussen / L.LandemanEntra Asa REAL ESTATE H. Syed/ B. Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTFastpartner Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg OVERWEIGHTFelleskjopet Agri Sa CONSUMER GOODS B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTFingrid Oyj AA- Stable A1 Pos AA- Stable UTILITIES J. Magnussen / L. Landeman OVERWEIGHTFinnair Oyj TRANSPORTATION B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTFortum Oyj BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable UTILITIES J. Magnussen / L. Landeman UNDERWEIGHTFortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad AbBBB+ Stable UTILITIES J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTG4S Plc BBB- Neg SERVICES & IT B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTGaslog Ltd SHIPPING J. Meyer / B. Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTGetinge Ab HEALTHCARE A. Moberg / L. Landeman UNDERWEIGHTGolar Lng Partners Lp SHIPPING J. Meyer / B. Engebretsen OVERWEIGHTHeimstaden Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg MARKETWEIGHTHemfosa Fastigheter Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg MARKETWEIGHTHexagon Ab MACHINERY & HEAVY INDUSTRIALS A. Moberg / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTHkscan Oyj CONSUMER GOODS M. Rosendal / B. Børsting MARKETWEIGHTHoegh Lng Holdings Ltd SHIPPING J. Meyer / B. Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTHoist Kredit Ab Ba1 BANKS J. Damkjær / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTHusqvarna Ab BBB Stable CONSUMER GOODS A. Moberg / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTIca Gruppen Ab CONSUMER GOODS A. Moberg / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTIf P&C Insurance Holding Ltd A- Stable INSURANCE K. Jensen / J. DamkjærIkano Bank Ab BANKS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærInvestor Ab AA- Stable Aa3 Stable CORPORATES B. Børsting / A. Moberg MARKETWEIGHTIss A/S BBB Stable SERVICES & IT B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTJ Lauritzen A/S SHIPPING J. Meyer / B. EngebretsenJefast Holding Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg MARKETWEIGHTJernhusen Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg MARKETWEIGHTJyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1U Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær OVERWEIGHTKemira Oyj Wr MATERIALS M. Rosendal / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTKesko Oyj CONSUMER GOODS B. Børsting / M. Rosendal OVERWEIGHT

Recomm.S&P Moody's Fitch

2929

Our coverage 3 of 5

Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch

Sector Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookKlaveness Ship Holding As SHIPPING J. Meyer / B. EngebretsenKlovern Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg UNDERWEIGHTKungsleden Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg OVERWEIGHTLantmannen Ek For CONSUMER GOODS A. Moberg / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTLink Mobility TMT H.Syed / B.Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTLoomis Ab SERVICES & IT B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTLuossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab MATERIALS L. Landeman / A. Moberg MARKETWEIGHTMetsa Board Oyj BB+ Pos Ba2 Stable MATERIALS M. Rosendal / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTMetso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable MACHINERY & HEAVY INDUSTRIALS B. Børsting / M. Rosendal OVERWEIGHTNcc Ab CONSTRUCTION A. Moberg / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTNeste Oyj ENERGY J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTNibe Industrier Ab MACHINERY & HEAVY INDUSTRIALS A. Moberg / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTNokia Oyj BB+ Stable Ba1 Stable BB+ Pos TMT M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTNordax Bank Ab BANKS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærNordea Bank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Stable AA- Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær MARKETWEIGHTNorwegian Air Shuttle Asa TRANSPORTATION B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTNorwegian Property Asa REAL ESTATE H. Syed/ B. Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTNykredit Bank A/S A Stable Baa1U Stable A Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær MARKETWEIGHTNynas Group ENERGY J. Magnussen / L. LandemanObos Bbl REAL ESTATE H. Syed/ B. Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTObos Forretningsbygg REAL ESTATE H. Syed / B.Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTOdfjell Se SHIPPING J. Meyer / B. EngebretsenOlav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa REAL ESTATE H. Syed/ B. Engebretsen OVERWEIGHTOp Corporate Bank Plc AA- Stable Aa3 Stable WD BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær OVERWEIGHTOrkla Asa CONSUMER GOODS H. Syed/ B. Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTOutokumpu Oyj B3 Pos MATERIALS M. Rosendal / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTPostnord Ab TRANSPORTATION L. Landeman / A. Moberg UNDERWEIGHTRamirent Oyj CONSTRUCTION J. Magnussen / B. Børsting MARKETWEIGHTSaab Ab Wr MACHINERY & HEAVY INDUSTRIALS A. Moberg / L. Landeman OVERWEIGHTSandvik Ab BBB Pos MACHINERY & HEAVY INDUSTRIALS B. Børsting / M. Rosendal OVERWEIGHTSas Ab B Stable Wr Stable TRANSPORTATION B. Børsting / M. Rosendal OVERWEIGHTSbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Pos BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær MARKETWEIGHT

Recomm.S&P Moody's Fitch

3030

Our coverage 4 of 5

Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch

Sector Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookSchibsted Asa SERVICES & IT H. Syed / B.Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTSecuritas Ab BBB Stable Wr SERVICES & IT B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTShip Finance International Ltd Wr SHIPPING J. Meyer / B. Engebretsen OVERWEIGHTSkandinaviska Enskilda Banken AbA+ Stable Aa3 Stable AA- Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær MARKETWEIGHTSkf Ab BBB- Stable Baa2 Stable MACHINERY & HEAVY INDUSTRIALS B. Børsting / M. Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTSpar Nord Bank A/S BANKS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærSparbanken Skane Ab A- Neg BANKS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærSparebank 1 Boligkreditt As BANKS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærSparebank 1 Nord Norge A1 Stable A Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær MARKETWEIGHTSparebank 1 Smn A1 Stable A- Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær UNDERWEIGHTSparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa A1 Neg A- Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær UNDERWEIGHTSparekassen Kronjylland BANKS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærSponda Oyj REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg OVERWEIGHTSrv Group Oyj REAL ESTATE A. Moberg / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTSsab Ab B+ Pos MATERIALS M. Rosendal / L. Landeman OVERWEIGHTSt1 Nordic Oy ENERGY J. Magnussen / L. Landeman OVERWEIGHTStatkraft Sf A- Neg Aaa Stable UTILITIES J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTStatnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable UTILITIES J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTStatoil Asa A+ Stable Aa3 Stable ENERGY J. Magnussen / L. Landeman UNDERWEIGHTSteen & Strøm As REAL ESTATE H. Syed/ B. Engebretsen OVERWEIGHTStena Ab BB- Neg B3 Stable TRANSPORTATION B. Børsting / M. Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTStockmann Oyj Abp CONSUMER GOODS M. Rosendal / B. Børsting MARKETWEIGHTStolt-Nielsen Ltd SHIPPING J. Meyer / B. EngebretsenStora Enso Oyj BB Pos Ba2 Pos WD MATERIALS M. Rosendal / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTStorebrand Livsforsikring As BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable INSURANCE K. Jensen / J. DamkjærSuomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys BBB Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. DamkjærSvenska Cellulosa Ab Sca BBB Stable Baa1 Stable CONSUMER GOODS M. Rosendal / B. Børsting OVERWEIGHTSvenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Stable Aa2 Stable AA Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær MARKETWEIGHTSwedavia Ab TRANSPORTATION L. Landeman / A. Moberg MARKETWEIGHTSwedbank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Stable AA- Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær MARKETWEIGHTSwedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable CONSUMER GOODS A. Moberg / B. Børsting OVERWEIGHTSydbank A/S Baa1 Stable BANKS K. Jensen / J. Damkjær OVERWEIGHT

Recomm.S&P Moody's Fitch

3131

Our coverage 5 of 5

Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch

Sector Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookTallink Grupp As TRANSPORTATION B. Børsting / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTTdc A/S BBB- Stable Baa3 Stable BBB- Stable TMT M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTTechnopolis Oyj REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg MARKETWEIGHTTeekay Lng Partners Lp SHIPPING J. Meyer / B. Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTTeekay Offshore Partners Lp SHIPPING B. Engebretsen /H. Syed OVERWEIGHTTele2 Ab TMT M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen OVERWEIGHTTelefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB- Neg Ba1 Stable BBB Neg TMT M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen UNDERWEIGHTTelenor Asa A Stable A3 Stable TMT M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTTelia Co Ab A- Neg Baa1 Stable A- Stable TMT M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTTeollisuuden Voima Oyj BB+ Stable Wr BBB Neg UTILITIES J. Magnussen / L. Landeman OVERWEIGHTThon Holding As REAL ESTATE H. Syed/ B. Engebretsen OVERWEIGHTTopdanmark A/S INSURANCE K. Jensen / J. DamkjærTryg Forsikring A/S INSURANCE K. Jensen / J. DamkjærUpm-Kymmene Oyj BBB- Pos Baa3 Stable WD MATERIALS M. Rosendal / L. Landeman OVERWEIGHTVasakronan Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg MARKETWEIGHTVattenfall Ab BBB+ Neg A3 Neg BBB+ Stable UTILITIES J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTVestas Wind Systems A/S MACHINERY & HEAVY INDUSTRIALS J. Magnussen / M. Rosendal OVERWEIGHTVictoria Park Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg OVERWEIGHTVolvo Ab BBB Pos Baa2 Stable BBB Stable MACHINERY & HEAVY INDUSTRIALS A. Moberg / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTWallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics SHIPPING J. Meyer / B. EngebretsenWihlborgs Fastigheter Ab REAL ESTATE L. Landeman / A. Moberg MARKETWEIGHTYit Oyj CONSTRUCTION A. Moberg / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHT

Recomm.S&P Moody's Fitch

3232

Fixed Income Credit Research team

Find the latest Credit Research: :

Danske Bank Markets: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch Bloomberg: DNSK<GO>

Thomas Hovard

Head of Credit Research

+45 45 12 85 05

[email protected]

Gabriel Bergin

Strategy, Financials

+46 8 568 80602

[email protected]

Katrine Jensen

Financials

+45 45 12 80 56

[email protected]

Jakob Magnussen

Utilities, Energy

+45 45 12 85 03

[email protected]

Henrik René Andresen

Credit Portfolios

+45 45 13 33 27

[email protected]

Bendik Engebretsen

Industrials

+47 85 40 69 14

[email protected]

Brian Børsting

Industrials

+45 45 12 85 19

[email protected]

Niklas Ripa

Credit Portfolios

+45 45 12 80 47

[email protected]

Louis Landeman

Industrials, Real Estate

+46 8 568 80524

[email protected]

Mads Rosendal

Industrials, TMT

+45 45 14 88 79

[email protected]

August Moberg

Industrials & Construction

+46 8 568 80593

[email protected]

Haseeb Syed

Industrials

+47 85 40 54 19

[email protected]

Jonas Meyer

Shipping

+47 85 40 70 79

[email protected]

3333

Disclosures

This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ('Danske Bank'). The author of this research report is Louis Landeman, Senior Analyst.

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3434

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3535

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Report completed: 15 May 2017, 14:09 GMTReport first disseminated: 16 May 2017, 06:30 GMT