Weather DiscussionAugust 22, 2011

OutlineOutline• Tropical Activity

– Tracks of Irene– Intensity of Irene

• Potential Impacts of Irene– Health– Drought

• A summary of weather from Thursday, August18th through Tuesday, August 22th

Hurricane Irene now a Category 2 Hurricane Hurricane Irene now a Category 2 Hurricane headed toward the SE US coastheaded toward the SE US coast

3NWS Raleigh, NCNWS Raleigh, NC

Hurricane Irene BriefingHurricane Irene BriefingPrepared 9 AM, Tuesday August 23, 2011Prepared 9 AM, Tuesday August 23, 2011

NHC Update as of Tuesday, August 23, 2011 at 8 AM EDT

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis-s.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_500_del&loop=1

Hurricane Irene Model Tracks

Another shift to the right has been noted in the Tuesday morning model runs. If this trend continues, the expectations will be that most of the impacts will be confined to coastal portions of the state.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_mslp&loop=1

NGHP4 10.51 :QUEB GUABA/NAGUABO (PR)MSCP4 8.34 :BISLEY MET STATION (PR)LICP4 7.94 :LAGO ICACOS DAMSITE (PR)CEIP4 7.87 :NSSR/CEIBA 3SE (PR)GUSP4 7.77 :PUEBLITO DEL R RAING (PR)VIEP4 7.41 :ISABEL SEGUNDA 2SE (PR)CNAP4 5.78 :R CANOVANAS-CAMPO RI (PR)GCRP4 5.59 :R GUAYANES/YBUCOA 1N (PR)OROP4 5.31 :LAGO DE MATRULLAS (PR)YBUP4 5.20 :YABUCOA (PR)GARP4 4.91 :GURABO ABAJO RAINGAG (PR)SLMP4 4.68 :QUEB ARENAS RAINGAGE (PR)COMP4 4.55 :PLATA AT COMERIO (PR)CMRP4 4.49 :REPRESA DE COMERIO (PR)SLGP4 4.45 :QUEB BLANC/SAN LOREN (PR)SLKP4 4.01 :R CAYAGUAS@CERRO GOR (PR)VINP4 3.72 :VILLALBA 3NE/BAR APE (PR)PARP4 3.67 :BO MARIN/PATILLAS 4N (PR)JAYP4 3.20 :RIO SALIENTE@COABEY (PR)CIFP4 3.04 :R BAYAMON @ ARENAS (PR)DRAP4 3.00 :LAGO CIDRA NR CIDRA (PR)NAMP4 2.99 :GUADIANA/NRNJTO 1E (PR)ARHP4 2.98 :DOS BOCAS 3E, PR (PR)PATP4 2.97 :RIO GR DE PATILLAS (PR)JAXP4 2.55 :R CAONLLAS@PASO PLMA (PR)CIEP4 2.48 :R BAYAMON BL L CIDRA (PR)BZDP4 2.45 :BARRIO BEATRIZ PCPN (PR)JAMP4 2.45 :BRIO COLLORES/JYUYA (PR)MORP4 2.44 :R G D MANATI/MOROVIS (PR)PASP4 2.38 :LAGO PATILLAS AT DAM (PR)RPOP4 2.30 :PIEDRAS@ HATO REY (PR)UTHP4 2.29 :R TANAMA NR UTUADO (PR)NARP4 2.28 :LAGO LA PLATA (PR)UTKP4 2.19 :B RNCADOR NR UTUADO (PR)BZBP4 2.16 :BAIROA ARRIBA PCPN (PR)JABP4 2.08 :B MAMAYS AB/JYUYA 6N (PR)CAGP4 2.06 :de LOIZA @ CAGUAS (PR)CAMP4 2.03 :R CAGUITAS@V BLANCA (PR)SLNP4 2.00 :R GR D LOIZA/SAN LOR (PR)CORP4 1.76 :R CIBUCO BLO COROZAL (PR)GMNP4 1.75 :CNL GUAMANI W/GUAYMA (PR)

Puerto Rico Rainfall

The center of Irene passed through Puerto Rico

Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's Hospital admissions (black bars) and death rate in percent (red line) for Haiti's cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011.cholera epidemic of 2010 - 2011.

Another danger is that Irene's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that surfaced after the earthquake. An increase in cholera deaths due to Irene's rains is also a concern in the Dominican Republic, where cholera has sickened 14,000 people and killed 92 as of the end of July.

August 16th

Tuesday Irene InformationTuesday Irene Information

13

Possible NC impacts starting late Friday and lasting through Sunday:

• Dangerous rip currents along the beaches• Heavy rain near the coast…lighter amounts west of I-95. Localized poor

drainage flooding expected. • Tropical and hurricane force winds mainly near the coast• Coastal storm surge possible• Brief tornadoes…mainly to the north and east of the track

Confidence Factor: • Once again, the track has been shifted to the right. If this trend continues…primary impacts will be confined to the coastal areas.

• Confidence is high regarding coastal impacts, but decreasing confidence that central portions of the state will be impacted.

Other thoughts and concerns:

• This storm is still 4 days away and tweaks to the forecast track are still expected.

• If track doesn’t change much, the first of the impacts may be felt by late Friday or early Saturday

• Those planning to travel to the coast this weekend should pay close attention since the greatest impacts are expected along the coast, and particularly the Outer Banks.

• 90-day rainfall across the SE part of the state is about 6-12 inches below normal, so rainfall with this system is much needed and would help alleviate drought conditions. However, if the track continues to shift east, drought relief may be limited.