Toward a vulnerability/adaptation methodology

Toward a vulnerability/adaptation methodology

Thomas E. DowningStuart Franklin

Sukaina BharwaniCindy WarwickGina Ziervogel

Stockholm Environment InstituteOxford

With contributions from Mike Brklacich, Carleton University

Kirstin Dow, SEIand other colleagues

From theory to practice

Political ecology of vulnerable

food systems

Actor Network TheoryEarly warning systems

Disasters…

Stakeholder analysis

& engagement

Livelihood vulnerability& exposure

Adaptationevaluation

Integrated analysis

• Key insights

• Implications for methodology

Political ecology


food systems

• Vulnerability is…– General attribute of system and particular instance of

exposure• Instantiation of a class

– Dynamic, a process• Emergence, resilience

– Multi-level, occurring simultaneously at different spatial scales

• Glocal

Actor Network Theory

• Vulnerability emerges from the interactions of actors

• Boundaries of assessment are determined by character of network

• Coupled socio-ecological systems are complex• Elements need to be understood in their context


Disasters…

Stakeholder analysis & engagement• Identify the actors

– Motivations, constitution, regulation

– Range of adaptive strategies and options

– Capacities and constraints

– Social networks and institutions

• Participatory, mental mapping of problem space• Chapati exercise


& engagement

Livelihood vulnerability & exposure• Priority complexes of vulnerability and hazards

– Multiple stresses– Links to driving forces of vulnerability– Focus on reasons for concern: the priority outcomes of

vulnerability– Gaps in knowledge

• Sensitivity matrix• Links to climate scenarios and socio-economic

scenarios


Livelihood sensitivity matrixCLIMATIC HAZARDS Exposure

IndexDrought Dry spells Floods Warm

spells

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Soil water ▲ ■ ▲ ◦ 75

Water supply ▲ ○ ■ ◦ 60

Wood fuel □ ◦ ○ ◦ 35

Grazing/fodder ■ ○ ■ ◦ 55

LIVELIHOODS

Smallholders ▲ □ □ ◦ 60

Emerging farmers □ ○ ○ ◦ 40

Traders □ ◦ ■ ◦ 45

Impact Index 73 40 60 20

Evaluating adaptation• Range of choice and potential effectiveness

– Options– Strategic planning– Adaptive capacity

• Matrix inventory and checklist• Multi-criteria assessment• Decision support


Further (integrating) analyses• Participatory evaluation of alternative

futures• Vulnerability profiles• Risk assessment• Participatory policy exercises; role playing• Knowledge elicitation and multi-agent

modelling

Integrated analysis

Morning exercises• Objectives

– Present core methodology for grounded vulnerability assessment– Build on your expertise and confidence in conducting V&A

studies– Demonstrate facilitation techniques

• Process– Brainstorm on livelihoods– Groups on livelihood sensitivity– Report back– Groups on socio-economic scenarios– Report back– Lunch and evaluation– Further methods– Wrap up

From global to local scenariosConventional Worlds Barbarization Great Transitions

policy reform

market forces

breakdown

fortress world

new sustainability

eco-communalism

Food Insecurity: Present Status

Food Insecurity: Present Status

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Food Availability

Fo

od

Access

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

AT-RISK

Orissa

Bihar

HimachalPradesh

Gujarat

Punjab

WestBengal

TamilNadu

Rajasthan

Maharashtra

Haryana

Karmataka

UttarPradesh

Assam

AndhraPradesh Kerala

MadhyaPradesh

Food Insecurity: Links to Climate Change

Food Insecurity: Worst Case?

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Food Availability

Fo

od

Access

-Disaster morbidity-Social infrastructure losses-Consequences of availability & access+Adaptation interventions?

-Energy costs & reduced irrigation-Loss of market infrastructure in disasters-Increased transport costs

+Local sourcing for markets

-Heat stress & water shortage-Drought & storms-Salinisation & loss of coastal lands

+ CO2 enrichment



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Food Availability

Fo

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Access

AT-RISK

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Toward a risk assessment:Reasons for concern

Climate

Agricultural exports

National food balance

Food security in vulnerable households

Prolonged drought risks

High

Moderate

Low

Present

Vulnerability Profile, Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia

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1.1HH Size

Male laborers

Total Income

Total Expenditure

Crops sales price in bad year

Food Aid

Grazing land

Crop land

Mid Altitude

Road Access

Livestock holdings

Types of dairy

Low income crop (V High)

Middle income crop (High)

Crop/dairy (Mod)

Isolated, middle income crop (Mod)

High income dairy (Mod)

Vulnerability profile for Ethiopia

Knowledge elicitation•Sub stages involved in the process

•Knowledge elicitation can be a big bottleneck in the research process

•KnETs are tools which can automate parts of this process

Fieldw ork(interview s, focus

groups, etc.)

Interactivequestionnaire -

design inform ed byStage 1

M achine learningalgorithm createsheuristics using

data from thequestionnaire

Learning DecisionTree program -

expands/prunes/refines existingdecision trees

Know ledgeRepresentation -

decision trees/rules

Choices m adeby stakeholders

are recorded

Identification of salientdom ains, drivers and

strategy choicesTesting w ith

stakeholder input

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 4Stage 3

Rapid prototyping

•Interactive questionnaire

•Identify salient aspects of knowledge domain

JavaJava

D:\Projects\Defra social cost of carbon\WebQuestGraphics\WebQuestGraphics\WebQuest\Quest.jpr

D:\Projects\Defra social cost of carbon\WebQuestGraphics\WebQuestGraphics\WebQuest\Quest.jpr

Rule induction program

•Rule induction algorithm creates rules based on data from questionnaire

Learning program

•Stakeholders participate in pruning and refining resulting decision trees using a ‘learning’ program

Agent based modelling

Temperature

Ann. Temp

Strategy

Existing Knowledge*Altittue*Delayed

ImmediateSustainedMultiplierLabour

Irrigation

Environment

Soil type

Economy

Sterling*Dollar*Euro*

WorldPrices*Crop production

Weather

SpringSummerAutumnWinter

Ann. TempAnn. Prec

Capital

InputOutput

Production

Crop

Irrigation

Crop

Rainfall

SpringSummerAutumnWinter

Ann. PrecWorld

Agent

Agent

Agent

Java Expert SystemShell (Jess)

RePast

ABM: social behaviour and climate change

Aggregate demand series scaled so 1973=100

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Reference runs MH climate change

Neighbourhood sourcing: individual=30%, social=80%. All runs: 1973=100.Scenarios broadly correspond to EA reference scenarios: individual (alphaand beta); social (gamma and delta).


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Two approaches Compared


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Climate change impacts

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AlphaMH

BetaMH

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Agent based:DiscontinuitiesLarge range of results

Dynamic simulation:Smooth scenariosModest range

Conclusion• Expert-stakeholder teams need a common framing

and language of narratives• Vulnerable food systems are complex: choosing

the priority risks in actor networks is essential• The end-to-end analysis should guide selection of

methodology at each stage: often simple methods are powerful


food systems


Disasters…


& engagement



Integrated analysis

Toward a vulnerability/adaptation methodology

Documents

Transcript of Toward a vulnerability/adaptation methodology