05 Vulnerability Adaptation

8/6/2019 05 Vulnerability Adaptation

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Vulnerability of Iran to AdverseVulnerability of Iran to AdverseImpacts of Climate ChangeImpacts of Climate Change

National Climate Change OfficeNational Climate Change Office

Department of EnvironmentDepartment of Environment

Islamic Republic of IranIslamic Republic of Iran

by:by:

MohammadMohammad SoltaniehSoltanieh

National Project ManagerNational Project Manager

National Workshop onNational Workshop on

KYOTO PROTOCOL: Challenges and OpportunityKYOTO PROTOCOL: Challenges and Opportunity

for Sustainable Development of I.R. Iran.for Sustainable Development of I.R. Iran.

2525--26 October, 200326 October, 2003

Tehran IranTehran Iran


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10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 2

PRESENTATION OVERVIEWPRESENTATION OVERVIEWNational circumstancesNational circumstances

LongLong--term projection of temperature and precipitation interm projection of temperature and precipitation inIranIran

Impact of response measures by AnnexImpact of response measures by Annex--B countries on theB countries on the

economy of Iran.economy of Iran.

Direct adverse impact of climate change on:Direct adverse impact of climate change on:

Water resourceWater resource

Agricultural products and food securityAgricultural products and food security

Coastal and low land areasCoastal and low land areas

Public healthPublic health

Adaptation on Climate ChangeAdaptation on Climate Change


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National Circumstances (I)National Circumstances (I)Trend of population growth between 1968Trend of population growth between 1968--1998(0001998(000

person)person)

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

1346 1348 1350 1352 1354 1356 1358 1360 1362 1364 1366 1368 1370 1372 1374 1376 1378


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National Circumstances (II)National Circumstances (II)

Trend of urban & rural household between 1968Trend of urban & rural household between 1968--19981998

Urbun

Rural

0

2500000

5000000

7500000

10000000

12500000

15000000

1346

1348

1350

1352

1354

1356

1358

1360

1362

1364

1366

1368

1370

1372

1374

1376

1378

1380


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National Circumstances (III)National Circumstances (III)Trend of GDP growth by sector (Trend of GDP growth by sector (bnbn.. RialsRials-- at constant 1982 prices)at constant 1982 prices)

Agriculture

Mining

Manufacturing

Oil

Water,

Electricity

and Gas

Construction

Services

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999


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National Circumstances (IV)National Circumstances (IV)Share of different economic subShare of different economic sub--sectors in GDP in 1990sectors in GDP in 1990

(%)(%)

Mining

1%

Agriculture

29%

Manufacturing

15%

Oil

20%

Water,Electricity and

Gas

2%

Construction

4%

Services

29%


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National Circumstances (V)National Circumstances (V)Share of different economic subShare of different economic sub--sectors in GDP in 2000sectors in GDP in 2000

(%)(%)

Services56%

Mining

1%

Agriculture

16%

Manufacturing

13%

O il

8%

Water,

Ele ctricity and

Gas1%

Construction5%


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National Circumstances (VI)National Circumstances (VI)

Trend of per capita GDP (,000Trend of per capita GDP (,000 RialRial--constant 1982 prices)constant 1982 prices)

150

190

230

270

310

350

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000


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National Circumstances (VII)National Circumstances (VII)Trend of primary energy production, domestic supply, import andTrend of primary energy production, domestic supply, import and

export (MBOE)export (MBOE)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Production Import Export Domestic Supply


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National Circumstances (VIII)National Circumstances (VIII)Trend of energy intensityTrend of energy intensity

(BOE/(BOE/MnMn.. RialRial -- at constant 1982 prices)at constant 1982 prices)

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Primary Ene rgy Final Ene rgy

at ona rcumstancesa ona rcums ances


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at ona rcumstancesa ona rcums ancesShare of different sectors in the total energy demand inShare of different sectors in the total energy demand in

2000 (%)2000 (%)

P o we r P la n t s

2 4 %

Ind us t ry

1 8 %

Tra ns po rt

2 4 %

Ag r ic ul t ur e

4 %

Re si de nt ia l

2 1 %

Co mm e rc ia l

5 %

Re f in e ry

4 %


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Impact of Response MeasuresImpact of Response Measures

Estimates of adverse effects and the requiredEstimates of adverse effects and the required

compensation are based on the results from fourcompensation are based on the results from fourscenarios:scenarios:

-- BusinessBusiness--asas--Usual (BAU),Usual (BAU),

-- Kyoto Protocol withKyoto Protocol with no flexible mechanismsno flexible mechanismsandand no tax adjustmentno tax adjustment,,

-- Kyoto Protocol withKyoto Protocol with no flexible mechanismsno flexible mechanismsandand tax adjustmentstax adjustments, and, and

-- Kyoto Protocol withKyoto Protocol with flexible mechanisms flexible mechanisms andandno tax adjustmentno tax adjustment..


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Baseline projections for the crude oil marketBaseline projections for the crude oil market

2010 2020 20302010 2020 2030

Baseline world oil price (USD per barrel)Baseline world oil price (USD per barrel)

19.219.2 20.51 22.1420.51 22.14World demand (World demand (mbdmbd))

81 9781 97 118118

NonNon--OPEC production (OPEC production (mbdmbd))

4444 45 4645 46

OPEC share of world oil production (%)OPEC share of world oil production (%)46 54 6146 54 61


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Impact of Response MeasuresImpact of Response MeasuresWorld crude oil price under the three policy scenariosWorld crude oil price under the three policy scenarios withwith

participation of the USA (% change from baseline)participation of the USA (% change from baseline)

ScenariosScenarios 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 202000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20

3030

No FlexibilityNo Flexibility

--0.130.13 --0.090.09 --15.3215.32 --16.0916.09 --16.4816.48 --17.6617.66 --18.3518.35

Tax CutTax Cut

--0.02 0.060.02 0.06 --7.507.50 --9.549.54 --9.639.63 --9.979.97 --10.2910.29

Flexibility with CDMFlexibility with CDM--0.090.09 --0.160.16 --10.6110.61 --11.3311.33 --11.1311.13 --11.0811.08 --11.1611.16


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Impact on IranImpact on Irans Economy ins Economy in No Flexibility ScenarioNo Flexibility Scenario

No FlexibilityNo FlexibilityRevenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensatioRevenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensationn

(Billions of 1995 USD)(Billions of 1995 USD) (Billions of 1995 USD)(Billions of 1995 USD)

WithWith USUS --6.36.3 --3.13.1 7979

WithoutWithoutUSUS --1.21.2 --0.70.7 2020


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Impact of Response MeasuresImpact of Response MeasuresImpact on IranImpact on Irans Economy ins Economy in Tax Cut ScenarioTax Cut Scenario

Tax CutTax Cut

Revenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensatioRevenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensationn


WithWith USUS --33 1.761.76 4545

WithoutWithoutUSUS 1.61.6 0.40.4 0*0*

*Zero value indicates that no compensation is needed*Zero value indicates that no compensation is needed


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Impact of Response MeasuresImpact of Response MeasuresImpact on IranImpact on Irans Economy ins Economy in Flexibility with CDM ScenarioFlexibility with CDM Scenario

Flexibility with CDM ScenarioFlexibility with CDM Scenario

Revenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensatioRevenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensationn


WithWith USUS --4.54.5 2.22.2 5757

WithoutWithoutUSUS --0.90.9 --0.520.52 1717


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Impact of Response Measures on Iranian Economy (USD billions)Impact of Response Measures on Iranian Economy (USD billions)

-1.24

1.62

-0.94

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

No Flexibil ity Tax Cut Flexibil ity with CDM


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Direct Adverse Impact of ClimateDirect Adverse Impact of Climate

ChangeChange

Direct adverse impact of climate change on:Direct adverse impact of climate change on:Water resourceWater resource

Agricultural products and food securityAgricultural products and food security

Coastal and low land areasCoastal and low land areas

Public healthPublic health


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LongLong--term projection of temperatureterm projection of temperature

and precipitation in Iranand precipitation in Iran

The selective combinations of twoThe selective combinations of twoGCMsGCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4),(HadCM2 and ECHAM4),

three IPCC emission scenarios, andthree IPCC emission scenarios, andthree different climate sensitivities,three different climate sensitivities,

represent the following temperaturerepresent the following temperatureand precipitation changes in longand precipitation changes in long--

term (2100).term (2100).

LongLong term projection of temperatureterm projection of temperature


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LongLong--term projection of temperatureterm projection of temperature

and precipitation in Iranand precipitation in Iran

Temperature :Temperature :

11C to 1.5C to 1.5C at low emission rate.C at low emission rate.

4.14.1C to 5C to 5C if the emission rate maintains at theC if the emission rate maintains at the

present level.present level.

5.95.9C to 7.7C to 7.7C at high emission rate.C at high emission rate.

Precipitation:Precipitation:

--11% to 19.1% of the baselines for low emission rate,11% to 19.1% of the baselines for low emission rate, --30.9% to 50% of the baselines for medium emission30.9% to 50% of the baselines for medium emission

rate,rate,

--58% to 80% of the baselines for high emission rate.58% to 80% of the baselines for high emission rate.

VulnerabilityVulnerability (( )W t )


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VulnerabilityVulnerability ((Water resource)Water resource)Water balance and total precipitation in theWater balance and total precipitation in the

country (billion cubic meters)country (billion cubic meters)

Evapotranspiration

(294)

Inter Flow(5)

1%

Infiltration(25)

6%

Surface Flow(92)

22%

V l bili AV l bilit A t


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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment

((Water resource)Water resource)

Sea level rise and infiltration of salt water into underground wSea level rise and infiltration of salt water into underground waterater

resourcesresourcesIncreased vaporization from the rivers due to higher temperatureIncreased vaporization from the rivers due to higher temperatures whichs which

result in drying out the riversresult in drying out the rivers

Variations in intensity and the magnitude of precipitation (In 5Variations in intensity and the magnitude of precipitation (In 53%3%

of the recorded stations flood index has increased)of the recorded stations flood index has increased)

Decreased volume and deteriorated water quality of undergroundDecreased volume and deteriorated water quality of undergroundreservoirs due to drought and increased surface vaporizationreservoirs due to drought and increased surface vaporization

which result in higher treatment costswhich result in higher treatment costs

Changes in precipitation from snow to rain and changes in meltinChanges in precipitation from snow to rain and changes in meltinggpatternspatterns

u nera yu nera y (Water resource)(Water resource)


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u nera yu nera y ( )( )Variation of runoff with respect to the variation ofVariation of runoff with respect to the variation of

temperature and rainfall in selected main basinstemperature and rainfall in selected main basins

BasinName

Temp. (T)

-40% -10% P +10% +40%

Aras

0 -52.2 -15.2 0.0 16.8 77.2

+1 -53.1 -18.1 -3.8 11.9 68.2

+6 -56.4 -28.4 -17.0 -6.1 34.1

Karkhe

0 -60.7 -18.8 0.0 21.5 102.5

+1 -62.3 -23.9 -6.7 12.9 86.9

+6 -67.9 -41.7 -30 -18.0 28.6

Precipitation (P)

Ad i MAd t ti M


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Adaptation MeasuresAdaptation Measures

(Water resource)(Water resource)

--Water conservation in all sectorsWater conservation in all sectors

-- Integrated ground and surface water managementIntegrated ground and surface water management-- Improved operation of reservoirsImproved operation of reservoirs

-- Construction of new damsConstruction of new dams

-- Artificial ground water rechargeArtificial ground water recharge

-- Water reuse and recyclingWater reuse and recycling

-- Further research and investigation to obtainFurther research and investigation to obtainhydrologicalhydrological datadata


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Adaptation MeasuresAdaptation Measures(Water resource)(Water resource)

-Construction of low-cost miniaturereservoirs for local irrigation

- Rehabilitation of small tanks in dry zones

- Sound watershed management

-Use of sprinkling and pressurized

irrigation systems

-Water rationing and pricing policies

V l bilit A tV l bilit A t


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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment

((Agriculture and Food Security)Agriculture and Food Security)

Irrigated

Cultivation

30%

Other

27%

Rain fed

Cultivation35%

Garden

8%


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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability AssessmentAgriculture and Food SecurityAgriculture and Food Security

Since 71% of cultivated land is devoted to grains withSince 71% of cultivated land is devoted to grains with

rain irrigation, climate change has significant adverserain irrigation, climate change has significant adverse

impact on food security.impact on food security.

Recent droughts have resulted in 52,000 billionRecent droughts have resulted in 52,000 billion RialsRialsof damage in agricultural sector and 3,600of damage in agricultural sector and 3,600 bilion Rialsbilion Rials

in water resourcesin water resources

Reduction of job positions in agricultural sectorReduction of job positions in agricultural sector

Increased immigration of farmers into the large cities.Increased immigration of farmers into the large cities.


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Adaptation MeasuresAdaptation Measures

((Agriculture and Food Security)Agriculture and Food Security)

-- Historically adaptive [for example: use of undergroundHistorically adaptive [for example: use of underground

canals, orcanals, or GhanatsGhanats]]-- Development of new crop (early maturing type) varietiesDevelopment of new crop (early maturing type) varieties

- Deep tillage

- Timeliness of tillage

- Construction of small scale reservoirs and dams

- Enclose the irrigation canals

- Reuse of drainage water

- Pressurized irrigation systems

- Leaching of salt affected soils


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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability AssessmentCostal Area & Low LandCostal Area & Low Land

Caspian sea

Wetland

Others

South Caspian shore


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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability AssessmentCostal Area & Low LandCostal Area & Low Land

Coastal wetland and mud flats(Danehkar et al., 1996)

Major shrimping ground (D.O.E., 1993)

Mangrove forest (D.O.E., 1993)

Sea grass (D.O.E., 1993)

Coral reef islands (D.O.E., 1993)

Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf(D.O.E., 1993)

Marine turtle habitats (Danehkar et al., 1996)

Waterbird habitat Danehkar et al., 1996)

Perl oyster habitat (D.O.E. 1993)

Perl oyster fishing ground (D.O.E., 1993)

Estunries (Nabavi et al., 1994)

Protected Area

Wildlife shelter

International wetland

Biosphere reserve

Ecological sensitive areas of the

Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman

(Danehkar & Porvakhshouri, 1997)


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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability AssessmentCoastal AreasCoastal Areas

The effects of sea level rise are:The effects of sea level rise are:

Changes in geomorphology of the coastalChanges in geomorphology of the coastalareasareas

Damages to oil and gas installationsDamages to oil and gas installations

Salt water intrusion into the drinking waterSalt water intrusion into the drinking water

resourcesresources

Changes in job market and shift to illegalChanges in job market and shift to illegaltraffic of goodstraffic of goods


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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment((Power Generation)Power Generation)

Damage to coastal installations for power plant

cooling.

2% loss in efficiency caused by 1 C in ambient

temperature and extra cooling load.

Loss of hydropower output due to lack of water

supply.

Increase in electricity demand for cooling.

Adaptation Measures


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Adaptation Measures

(Power Generation)

Diversification of industrial activities and sources of

foreign revenues.

Prevention of gas flaring and venting.

Use of dry cooling systems in power plants.

Expansion of combined cycles in power plants.

Development of co-generation.

Expansion of hydropower capacity.

Vulnerability Assessment


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Vulnerability Assessment

(Forestry)

- Intensification of forest land erosion, particularly

in the arid and semi-arid areas

- Changes in the hydrological cycles

- Retrogression of forests from the sea anddestruction due to the sea level rise

- Increase of fire danger in forests

- Unsuitable environment for wildlife

Ad t ti M


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Adaptation Measures

(Forestry)

- Rehabilitation, development and treatment of forestresources

- Afforestation

- Balancing forest harvesting volume with forest

growth and forest ecological capacity

- Forest tree improvement and use of fast growing

species for reforestation

Ad t ti M


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Adaptation Measures

(Forestry)

- Changing the abandoned farm lands toforests

- Developing wood farming and agro-forestrysystem

- Implementation of national plan for GreenMovement throughout the country

V l bili


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Vulnerability assessmentVulnerability assessmentPublic HealthPublic Health

The following diseases have shown increasingThe following diseases have shown increasing

trend in this country:trend in this country:MalariaMalaria

LLeishmanieishmaniaasissisCholeraCholera

Rodents infectionRodents infection

VulnerabilityVulnerability (P bli H lth )(P bli H lth )


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VulnerabilityVulnerability (Public Health )(Public Health )

Exposure rate to Malaria(left) & LExposure rate to Malaria(left) & L

eishmanieishmani

aa

sissis

in recent yearsin recent years

45

65

85

105

125

145

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

NumberofCaseper100,000Person

Actual Regression

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 20

NumberofCase

er100000Person

Actual Regression

05 Vulnerability Adaptation

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