Strategic Convection Products at the AWC - Review of 2005 - P/CCFP experiments
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Transcript of Strategic Convection Products at the AWC - Review of 2005 - P/CCFP experiments
Strategic Convection Strategic Convection Products at the AWCProducts at the AWC
- Review of 2005- Review of 2005- P/CCFP experiments- P/CCFP experiments
Presentation to Friends & Presentation to Friends & Partners of Aviation Partners of Aviation WeatherWeather
Jack May, Director Aviation Jack May, Director Aviation Weather CenterWeather Center
November 11, 2005November 11, 2005
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CCFP Review for 2005CCFP Review for 2005
Thanks to Jennifer Mahoney, Stacey Thanks to Jennifer Mahoney, Stacey Seseske, Mike Kay, and Sean MadineSeseske, Mike Kay, and Sean Madine
Forecast Verification Section Forecast Verification Section
Global Systems DivisionGlobal Systems Division
Earth Systems Research LaboratoryEarth Systems Research Laboratory
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CCFP 2005CCFP 2005 Accuracy (PODy) & Bias ReviewAccuracy (PODy) & Bias Review
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PODy 1.0PODy 1.0
BiasBias 4.0 4.0
PODy 0.0PODy 0.0
BiasBias 1.0 1.0
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PODy 1.0PODy 1.0
BiasBias 1.0 1.0
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Figure 3. Monthly averaged PODy scores for convective seasons 2001 through 2005. Scores are from verification of CCFP with the 40-km NCWD. Inset shows the monthly
convection (averaged 2001-2005) as percent coverage over the CONUS.
Historical Comparison (2001-2005)Historical Comparison (2001-2005)
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Figure 8. Monthly averaged bias scores for convective seasons 2001 through 2005. Scores are from verification of CCFP with the 40-km NCWD. Inset shows the monthly
convection (averaged 2001-2005) as percent coverage over the CONUS.
Historical comparison (2004 vs. 2005)Historical comparison (2004 vs. 2005)
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ConsistencyConsistency
Figure 9. Monthly time series of 2004 and 2005 consistency scores and the corresponding percentiles.
http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/publications/articles/kay_consistency_ARAM2004.pdf
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Figure 12. The frequency of different combinations of coverage and confidence attributes of CCFP polygons issued over the period 3 April – 1 October 2005. For all lead times combined.
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Probabilistic CCFP ExperimentProbabilistic CCFP Experiment
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Probabilistic CCFP Experiment Probabilistic CCFP Experiment GoalsGoals
• Give decision tool developers gridded forecasts on an Give decision tool developers gridded forecasts on an operational basis while providing legacy product.operational basis while providing legacy product.
• Determine workstation enhancements needed to Determine workstation enhancements needed to produce probabilistic forecast contours and grids in produce probabilistic forecast contours and grids in time allotted.time allotted.
• Help user community to define ‘probability of WHAT?’Help user community to define ‘probability of WHAT?’
• Allow users to view probabilistic CCFP contours and Allow users to view probabilistic CCFP contours and evaluate potential utility.evaluate potential utility.
• Help forecasters ‘tune’ their probabilistic forecasts Help forecasters ‘tune’ their probabilistic forecasts through verification.through verification.• Increase reliability and accuracyIncrease reliability and accuracy
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Side-by-Side PCCFP & CCFPSide-by-Side PCCFP & CCFP
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Side-by-Side PCCFP & CCFPSide-by-Side PCCFP & CCFP
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Gridded Equivalent Gridded Equivalent (4x actual resolution)(4x actual resolution)
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Future P-CCFP WorkFuture P-CCFP Work
• FY2006FY2006• Improve Graph-to-Grid conversion (e.g., better identification of min Improve Graph-to-Grid conversion (e.g., better identification of min
and max)and max)• Improve efficiency of workstation contour construction on Improve efficiency of workstation contour construction on
workstation.workstation.• Get Users into the discussion: “Probability of WHAT?” and Get Users into the discussion: “Probability of WHAT?” and
relevance of P-CCFP.relevance of P-CCFP.• How best to construct and display flight level & storm top How best to construct and display flight level & storm top
information?information?• Another experiment.Another experiment.
• FY2007/08 (pending funding)FY2007/08 (pending funding)• How to best to collaborate contours?How to best to collaborate contours?• Derive legacy CCFP from probability contours.Derive legacy CCFP from probability contours.• Develop verification information for tool makers and producers.Develop verification information for tool makers and producers.• Operational Test and EvaluationOperational Test and Evaluation