Smoke and Mirrors 7th Edition

What Reviewers Have Said ...It’s rare to find such sensible advice coming from someone who makes a living in Canada’s financial services industry. David Trahair says what most advisors are afraid to tell you.

— ELLEN ROSEMAN, BUSINESS COLUMNIST, THE TORONTO STAR

Does the world really need another book on retirement planning? When that title is Smoke and Mirrors, the answer is yes. Not only is it a quick,straightforward how-to guide, but author David Trahair’s central premise isone most “typical” Canadians will happily and heartily embrace: that theydon’t need to retire rich to retire comfortably; that banks, mutual funds, and insurance companies who say otherwise are simply selling myths andsowing fear in order to trick them into buying investment products they neither need nor can afford.

— CAMAGAZINE

Chartered accountant David Trahair throws cold water on the conventionalwisdom espoused by the investment industry including the notion that investors should contribute early and often to a registered retirement savings plan, even if they have to borrow the funds.

— JOHN HEINZL, THE GLOBE AND MAIL

Accountant David Trahair urges Canadians to stop toeing the financial industry’s line by ploughing money into RRSPs and instead pay off debt first.

— NATIONAL POST

The trick [to retiring well] is to learn about retirement from a source thatisn’t compromised by a desire to sell you something. One good source is Smoke and Mirrors: Financial Myths That Will Ruin Your Retirement Dreams(Self-Counsel Press). Author David Trahair is a chartered accountant withnothing to sell but his ideas on how the financial industry misleads peopleabout what it takes to retire comfortably.

— ROB CARRICK, THE GLOBE AND MAIL

Chartered accountant David Trahair thinks we need to get our prioritiesstraight when saving for our future. “Stop making RRSP payments — paydown debts first,” he screams from the front cover of his new book from Self-Counsel Press, Smoke and Mirrors: Financial Myths That Will Ruin Your Retirement Dreams. His book sizzles with rebellion against popular sales pitches, and he derides big banks and salespersons whose motives may conflict with your best interests.

— JAMES DAW, THE TORONTO STAR

What Financial Advisors Have Said ...Trahair will challenge you to think about personal financial planning in a very different way — and provide you with the tools to do so!

— BRIAN J. QUINLAN, CO-AUTHOR OF

TAX TIPS FOR CANADIANS FOR DUMMIES

Reviews.qxp 11/19/2009 11:18 AM Page i

If you plan to retire and live the Canadian dream — as most of us do — read this book … It will shift your beliefs on how best to achieve financialfreedom … These pages are easy to read, easy to understand, and easy to recommend.

— RANDY BORRON, CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD LEPAGE INC.

As a CFP, I am constantly questioning whether the financial services industrywill ever become truly client-focused. Your book clearly outlines what we, asfinancial professionals, should be telling our clients. In the long term, we willall be better off with clients who are financially stable and carry little or nodebt. Many thanks for writing the book.

— BETTY M.

What Readers Have Said ...Dave, may I say that your book changed my life and how I looked at my retirement! It is fantastic and I have tried to give your book to everyone I know. I can’t wait to get the [new] edition.

— BRENDA L.

Keep up the good work, I will be recommending your book to many friends and family.

— RON B.

Very concise, well written for the everyday investor; and unlike 90 percent of the self-help material out there, loaded with common sense.

— ROBERT M.

This [is] a book that “financial planners” should be giving out, if it weren’t so against their own interests. However, many others should buy your bookin bulk to give to their clients so that they stop thinking that RRSPs are a holy grail and that they need $2M in it when they retire.

— FRED Y.

Thank you for writing this extremely useful book. It is easy to read and pro-vides an in-depth assessment of the many issues that virtually every personwill have to face during their lives ... Your financial software included withthe book is also easy to use and provides a wonderful tool for the reader topick up and readily apply or adapt to his or her own situation. Bravo.

— BRIAN M.

I just purchased and read your book. I wish I had read it seven years ago ... Iused your personal rate of return calculator, which estimated –2.93%. [Yikes!]

— STEPHANIE S.

Reviews.qxp 11/19/2009 11:18 AM Page ii

David Trahair, CA

Self-Counsel Press(a division of )International Self-Counsel Press Ltd.Canada USA

SMOKE AND MIRRORS:FINANCIAL MYTHS THAT WILL RUIN YOURRETIREMENT DREAMS

Prelim.qxp 11/26/2009 10:57 AM Page iii

Copyright © 2004, 2010 by International Self-Counsel Press Ltd.

All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form by any means —graphic, electronic, or mechanical — without permission in writing from the publisher, ex-cept by a reviewer who may quote brief passages in a review. Any request for photocopying,recording, taping, or information storage and retrieval systems of any part of this bookshall be directed in writing to Access Copyright, Canadian Copyright Licensing Agency. Tocontact them call 1-800-893-5777 (extension 235) or go to their website for more infor-mation, www.accesscopyright.ca.

Self-Counsel Press acknowledges the financial support of the Government of Canada throughthe Book Publishing Industry Development Program (BPIDP) for our publishing activities.

Printed in Canada.

First edition: 2004; Reprinted 2004 Second edition: 2005Third edition: 2006Fourth edition: 2007Fifth edition: 2008 Sixth edition: 2009Seventh edition: 2010

Library and Archives Canada Cataloguing in Publication

Trahair, David

Smoke and mirrors : financial myths that will ruin your retirement dreams / DavidTrahair. — 7th 2010 ed.

ISBN 978-1-55180-895-6

1. Finance, Personal — Canada. 2. Retirement income — Canada. 3. Retirement in-come — Canada — Planning. 4. Investments — Canada. I. Title.

HG179.T74 2009 332.024'0140971 C2009-906330-1

Acknowledgements

Excerpts from Personal Financial Planning, 3rd. ed., by Kwok Ho and Chris Robinson,(Concord, Ontario: Captus Press Inc., 2001) are reprinted with permission of CaptusPress Inc., Units 14 & 15, 1600 Steeles Ave. West, Concord, ON L4K 4M2. Email:[email protected], Internet: www.captus.com.

Figure 3, MORTGAGE2 PRO, copyright © 2009 is used by permission of Ron Cirotto.



Self-Counsel Press(a division of)

International Self-Counsel Press Ltd.

1481 Charlotte Road 1704 North State StreetNorth Vancouver, BC V7J 1H1 Bellingham, WA 98225

Canada USA

Prelim.qxp 11/26/2009 10:57 AM Page iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ix

NOTICE TO READERS xi

PART ONE — UNDERSTANDING AND EXPLODINGFIVE BIG MYTHS OF FINANCIAL PLANNING 1

1 MEET THE MYTHS 3Seeing through the Smoke and Mirrors 5Why Listen to Me? 6Who Should Read This Book? 7How This Book Will Help You 8What’s between the Covers? 10

What’s on the CD-ROM? 13

2 MYTH 1: IF I HAD $1,000,000 … I COULD RETIRE 15Exposing the Myth 17

Can We Rely on the CPP and OAS Pensions? 18Myth versus Reality 19Your Investment Options 19Judging Your Comfort Level 20Calculating a Realistic Rate of Return 20

Debunking the Rule of 70 Percent 21From Myth to Reality 27The Effects of Inflation 30The Net Worth Statement 31Summary 34

3 MYTH 2: RRSPs ARE THE HOLY GRAIL OF RETIREMENT 35Exposing the Myth 37The Warm Bath 38An RRSP Primer 38

RRSP Limits 39Foreign Content 39Timing 40

v

CONTENTS

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Debunking the Promises of RRSPs 40Start Yesterday 40Borrow If You Don’t Have the Funds 42Invest in an RRSP before Paying Down the Mortgage 42Another Problem with RRSPs 43

Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt? 44Debt: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly 44

An Alternative Strategy 45The Burden of Debt 48

Credit Card Debt 49Income Tax Debt 49

The Joys of Debt-Free Living 50Free Disability Insurance 50Using Your House for Emergency Funds 51

A Word about RESPs and Group RRSPs 52Summary 53

4 MYTH 3: DON’T WORRY ABOUT YOUR INVESTMENTS;YOU’LL BE FINE IN THE LONG RUN 55Exposing the Myth 57

The Devastating Stock Market Crash 57Long Term Rates 59

How Mutual Funds Eat Your Money 60Timing Is Everything 61Will the Future Be Like the Past? 62Alternatives to Mutual Funds 62

Your Personal Rate of Return 63What Those Investment Statements Don’t Tell You 63Your Rate of Return Calculator 64

Summary 68

5 MYTH 4: WE HAVE MET THE ENEMY, AND HE IS THETAX COLLECTOR 71Exposing the Myth 73

Tax Shelters Us 73Don’t Sell: The Taxes Will Kill You 76Borrow Your Way to Riches — Or Rags 76

The Alternative: Focus on Net Worth, Not Taxes 77Summary 78

6 MYTH 5: SECURE YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE:BUY LIFE INSURANCE 79Exposing the Myth 81The Case Against Whole Life and Universal Life Insurance 82

You Can’t Have It Both Ways 83

vi Smoke and mirrors: Financial myths that will ruin your retirement dreams

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If You Cancel It, It’s Not Tax-Free 83How Do Your Savings Grow? 83How Big Is That Commission, Anyway? 84When Will the Premiums Stop? 84

How Much Coverage Do You Need? 85The Income-Replacement Method 86The Expense-Projection Method 87

Summary 88

PART TWO — FIGHTING BACK 91

7 THE RRSP TRAP: OPTIMIZE, DON’T MAXIMIZE 93The RRSP Trap 95

How Much Money Will You Need? 95RRSP Problem 1: Age 71 96RRSP Problem 2: Death 98Meet Jim Bradley 98

How to Avoid the RRSP Trap 101The Retirement Optimizer Key Variables 105

What Are You Doing after Work? 106How to Optimize Your Own RRSP 107

New Tax Break: Pension Income Splitting 110

8 MAKING THE RIGHT CHOICES BY USING THERIGHT TOOLS 111Knowledge Is a Tool 113Your Best Friend: A Business Calculator 114

Calculating the Future: Example 114The Low Monthly Lease Trap 116

9 YOUR MORTGAGE: FRIEND OR FOE? 121Mortgage Basics 124

Using an Amortization Schedule 125Key Mortgage Variables 126

How to Save Money with Your Mortgage 129Choose the Right Term 129The Sleep Test 131Payment Frequency 131Payment Amount 132

10 CARS — SHOULD I LEASE OR BUY? 135How Leasing Works 137

Residual Value 139Excess Kilometre Charge 139

Contents vii

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Other Fees 139GAP Insurance 140

Leasing versus Buying 140What the Numbers Say 142A Word about Interest Rates 144

How to Save Money 144Keep Your Car Longer 144Buy a Less Expensive Car 146Buy a Used Car 146

Summary 148

11 TRACKING YOUR FINANCES: THE ULTIMATE WEAPON 149Tracking Hotspots 154Personal Financial Tracking Options 155

The Quick-and-Dirty Method 155The Detailed Tracking Method 156

Projecting into the Future 161How to Use the Projection Spreadsheet 162

A Few Words about Killer Credit Cards 163

12 SUMMARY: WHAT YOU’VE LEARNED AND WHAT TO DO NEXT 175What Now? 180

CHARTS1 RRSP Option 462 Mortgage Pay-Down Option 47

FIGURES1 Calculating Your Personal Rate of Return 652 Retirement Optimizer 1023 Mortgage Amortization Schedule 1264 Conventional Mortgage Interest Rates Since 1980 1305 Amortization Schedule with Biweekly Payments 1326 Amortization Schedule with 26 Payments 1337 Leasing versus Buying 141

WORKSHEETS1 Net Worth Statement 1672 Income and Expenses 1683 Cash Flow Projection 171

viii Smoke and mirrors: Financial myths that will ruin your retirement dreams

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UNDERSTANDING ANDEXPLODING FIVE BIG MYTHS OF FINANCIAL PLANNING

PART ONE

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1MEET THEMYTHS

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SEEING THROUGH THE SMOKE AND MIRRORSYou may be wondering, “Another book on financial plan-ning? What more is there to say? Haven’t we heard it all?”

In that lies the problem. Each and every day, we arebombarded by messages from so-called financial advisors,the foot soldiers of the big finance companies, imploring usto secure our financial future by giving them control of ourpersonal finances.

You’ve heard the pitches:

• “Invest with us and retire rich!”

• “Buy life insurance from us and secure your financialfuture!”

• “Get that loan you need to realize your dreams!”

These pitches are often accompanied by scare tactics:“Don’t you know that you’ll need millions of dollars

5

Chapter01.qxp 11/27/2009 11:25 AM Page 5

stashed away by the time you retire, or you’ll be forced tolive in a cardboard box, surviving on macaroni and cheesefor the rest of your life?”

The truth is that the people who send these messagesare pulling the wool over your eyes. Many of them aremerely salespeople offering advice that will benefit them-selves — not you. They are in it simply for the commissions.

Take the big banks, for example. They are not in businessto secure your happy retirement. Their objective is to max-imize the value of their company to keep their shareholdershappy. They do this by maximizing their profit. When youbank, invest, or borrow from them, they are making moneyoff you with each and every transaction. Their profit comesfrom your pocket, and it’s eating away at your nest egg eachand every hour of every day of your life.

It’s time to do something about it all. Something needsto be said to clear the air — to help you — and all Canadi-ans — see reality through the smoke and mirrors.

WHY LISTEN TO ME?I wrote this book because I have become increasingly angryabout the messages sent by the world of financial plannersand others who sell financial products. I have come to theconclusion that most of them are simply wrong, and thestrategies they ask us to follow can, in fact, suck the financiallife out of us. I felt it was imperative to reveal what I believeto be the truth behind the myths we are asked to believe.

Those are my reasons for writing. But why should youread what I have to say?

First and most important, I am an independent source.I have no vested interest in your investments, or whetheryou have life insurance, or how large your RRSP is, becauseI don’t sell any of those products.

6 Smoke and mirrors: Financial myths that will ruin your retirement dreams


Second, I have the education and experience necessaryto explain what you need to know. I am a chartered ac-countant by profession and have provided financial servicesto many different types of businesses and individuals formore than 25 years. My training has given me the necessarytools to make some sense of the many complicated and con-fusing areas related to personal finances.

I have found that the skills I have developed and honedfrom years of creating and analyzing the financial state-ments of a diverse range of businesses translates well to theunderstanding of personal finances. In my own work and inthis book, I have taken all the accounting concepts, princi-ples, and procedures used in successful businesses and ap-plied them to the finances of individuals.

WHO SHOULD READ THIS BOOK?If you are independently wealthy, own your own mortgage-freehome, have been able to maximize your RRSP contributions,have investments outside your retirement plan, spend lessthan you make each year, and are totally up to date on yourpersonal income taxes, you won’t get much out of this book.

It’s for everyone else. If any of the following statementsdescribes you, then you’ve picked up the right book:

• I know my personal finances need improvement butI just can’t find the time to deal with them.

• I have a credit card balance that seems to go nowherebut up.

• I have no idea how well my investments are doing.

• I own a really nice house … with a really huge mortgage.

• I’m worried about my kids’ education, but payingprivate school fees or saving for university is justadding to my financial pressure cooker.

Meet the myths 7


• I own a whole life insurance policy, and the paymentsare killing me.

• I still owe personal income tax from prior years.

• I am a student or a recent university graduate withloans to pay off, and I haven’t found a job yet.

• I have no idea how much I spent last year on interest.

• I am self-employed and behind on my personal taxes,GST, and payroll taxes.

• I never seem to be able to come up with the moneyto make my RRSP contribution unless I borrow it.

• I am not good with numbers.

If any item in this list describes you, don’t despair.You’re not alone. In fact, I would describe you as the typi-cal Canadian — at least in terms of personal finances. Buthelp is at hand. This book may become your best friend.

You may have noticed that the above list doesn’t men-tion anything about income level. That’s because earning asignificant salary or income, even millions of dollars a year,doesn’t necessarily mean you are in good shape financially.In fact, you may be in worse shape than someone with amuch lower income, because your high income allows youto borrow easily. You can dig yourself into a very deep debthole that will be extremely tough to get out of if your in-come is ever significantly reduced. If you fall into thiscamp, you too should benefit from the words that follow.

HOW THIS BOOK WILL HELP YOUReading this book and using the tools that come on theCD-ROM will give you what you need to take control ofyour personal finances, and that’s something that most peo-ple never do. Many, if not most, people simply give up andassume that their money will “sort itself out in the end.”



Nothing could be further from the truth. If you don’t takecontrol, someone else will, and that could cost you andyour family big time.

There are lots of reasons why so many Canadians havebecome dependent on the financial advice of the “experts”instead of controlling their own financial decision making.Let’s look at the three main reasons, and how the financialcompanies feed on them:

• Lack of financial knowledge: You may be very good atwhat you do — whether you are a plumber, a doctor,a professional athlete, or anything else — but youprobably don’t have much training in personal finan-cial matters. If you’re like most people, you’ve proba-bly learned what you do know about finances fromyour parents, or perhaps from whatever reading youhave done during your spare time. The financial com-panies, however, have thousands of employees trainedin finance constantly working on developing productsthat will make them money. Many of these productsare exceedingly complex and are designed in such away that you may never be able to figure out whetheror not they are good for you. Advantage: theirs.

• Lack of time: How much time did you spend track-ing and analyzing your spending last year? When youlast renewed your mortgage, how many hours didyou spend researching alternatives? When that lifeinsurance salesperson tried to sell you a whole lifepolicy, did you have it analyzed by an independentprofessional? There simply aren’t enough hours inthe day to do all that’s needed. Unfortunately, unlessyou set priorities to start devoting at least some timeto your personal finances, one day it will be too late.Your income will stop but the bills won’t. The finan-cial companies know this, and make promises to saveyou precious time. But what have you saved if you

Meet the myths 9


don’t understand the financial products you’re buy-ing? Advantage: theirs.

• Not having the right tools: Even if you do have the fi-nancial expertise as well as the time, you may not havethe right tools to make an effective decision aboutyour finances. For example, if you are trying to decidewhether to lease or buy a car, you may have the fig-ures, but do you know how to use a business calcula-tor to determine which option is better? When youconsider your mortgage options, can you produce anamortization schedule for each one to see which onewill cost you the least in interest and allow you to payoff your debt the earliest? (Both these tools are ex-plained in Part Two of this book.) Advantage: theirs.

The large financial institutions invest millions of dollarsdeveloping advertising campaigns designed to toy with ouremotions and deftly pick our pockets as a result of our nothaving the knowledge, time, and tools to control our ownfinances. To sell insurance, they tempt us with early retire-ment thoughts; to make investments look attractive, theyuse seductive pictures such as a pristine cottage on a glassylake or a luxury car. Who can resist?

This book will help you get on track toward controllingyour own finances and resisting the siren call of the big fi-nancial companies.

WHAT’S BETWEEN THE COVERS?This book is meant for you, the typical Canadian. It’s notmeant for the bankers, brokers, credit card companies, andcertain financial planners and insurance agents. In fact,many of those people are not going to like what they readhere, because it counters the advice they give to peopleevery day. But for you, all the content in the followingchapters is positive. It will give you the ammunition youneed to fight back against the scare tactics and “rule of



thumb” selling methods used to suck the money out of yourpockets every day of your life.

The remaining chapters in Part One of this book exposethe five key myths used by many financial advisors to securetheir own financial futures by tricking you into giving thema pipeline to your hard-earned money:

• Myth 1: If I had $1,000,000 … I could retire. Themyth that you need more than a million dollars to re-tire comfortably is a blatant attempt to grab more ofyour money without you even noticing. That’s be-cause the more money you hand over to your invest-ment advisor, the more money he or she makesthrough commissions and other fees. In Chapter 2, Idebunk this myth by using the ultimate weapon —personal financial tracking. I use a fictitious family,the Harts, to show you how to crunch real numbersto prove you need far less than many financial advi-sors would have you believe.

• Myth 2: RRSPs are the Holy Grail of retirement.While an RRSP plays an important part in achievingfinancial security, there is something far more impor-tant to address: how to deal with your debt (e.g.,credit card balance, home mortgage, personal line ofcredit). In Chapter 3, I provide a no-risk strategy thatwill let you eliminate all your debt, including yourmortgage, years before you retire.

• Myth 3: Don’t worry about your investments; you’llbe fine in the long run. The standard message foryears has been to trust in the stock market becausethe average rate of return on stocks, in the long term,will be much better than that of fixed income prod-ucts such as GICs (guaranteed investment certifi-cates) and term deposits. But what many financialadvisors don’t reveal is the one simple figure youneed: the personal rate of return you are making on

Meet the myths 11


your investment portfolio. And why don’t they showyou this figure? Because it’s simply too hard for themto calculate, or because it would be too “confusing”to explain that your return was actually only 2 per-cent last year? Maybe it’s because they don’t wantyou to know. In Chapter 4, you’ll learn how to cal-culate your own personal rate of return on any in-vestment portfolio using a simple spreadsheet that isincluded on the CD-ROM that comes with this book.All you need are the dates and amounts of moneyyou invested and the current market value. You cantake the results to your next meeting with your advisorand start having some useful discussions.

• Myth 4: We have met the enemy, and he is the tax col-lector. No one likes to pay taxes, and financial sales-people know it. But if you follow the advice manyoffer — to invest in a tax shelter, or to borrow to in-vest, for example — in order to lower your tax bill,you may end up broke. In Chapter 5, I use some real-life examples to prove my point: trying to avoidtaxes often results in lousy financial decisions.

• Myth 5: Secure your financial future: Buy life insur-ance. Let’s face facts. Having a life insurance policy onyour own life won’t do anything to secure your finan-cial future: you’ll be dead if you collect. Life insurancedoes, however, serve a purpose. It should help yourdependants maintain their standard of living after youare gone. But that’s not what you’ll hear from manyinsurance salespeople. Instead you’ll hear wonderfulthings about whole life insurance and how you cansave money at the same time you insure your life! It’swhat they don’t tell you that’s dangerous to your fi-nancial well-being. Chapter 6 reveals the true cost oflife insurance and includes step-by-step instructions tohelp you determine how much coverage you need.



I learned about these myths the hard way — by makingthe mistakes of following most of them. I exposed themyths by doing my own personal financial tracking. Theexperience I have gained in doing so is the basis of my opin-ions in Chapters 2 to 6. It is my hope that you can use myexperience to help yourself in your own personal financialplanning.

Part Two of this book will help you take the next step.It focuses on saving you thousands of dollars by showingyou how to choose the right tools, understand mortgages(likely the largest investment you’ll ever make), and decidebetween leasing or buying a car (one of the other major ex-penses you may need to consider). It also describes in detailhow to track your finances — giving you the ultimateweapon in fighting back. Finally, it summarizes everythingyou’ll have learned by that point and starts you in the rightdirection for the future.

What’s on the CD-ROM?The CD-ROM is an integral part of this book and providesvaluable tools for you to use with your very own personalfinancial details. I encourage you to use these simple Micro-soft Excel spreadsheets and arm yourself with the informa-tion only you can determine. Here’s what you get:

• The Personal Rate of Return Calculator: Figure outwhat rate of return your RRSP has generated, thenlook at the rate on your debt to figure out how muchfurther ahead you’ll be by paying off your loans.

• The Retirement Optimizer: Simply answer some basicquestions to determine how much your RRSP will be worth when you want to retire, whether or notyou can afford to retire early, how much retirementsavings you will be forced to withdraw each year,whether or not that will result in Old Age Securityclawbacks, and much more.

Meet the myths 13


• My Net Worth Calculator: Find out the most impor-tant figure in personal finances: the one that tells youwhat you are worth.

• Car Lease versus Buy Analyzer: Makes it easy to com-pare and decide how to pay for your next car.

• My Income and Expenses: Punch in your monthly ex-penses and instantly see what your annual expensesare likely to be.

• Cash Flow Projector: If you have actual results, use thistool to allocate your spending and reach your goals.

After you’ve finished reading the book, why not drop bymy website at www.smokeandmirrors.ca to let me knowwhat you think? Has your investment advisor done a greatjob with your money? If you are already retired, have youfound you really do need more than a million dollarstucked away to retire comfortably? Has a life insurancestrategy worked well in your family? This is the best infor-mation I can get — direct feedback from people with reallife experiences. Your comments will help me develop fu-ture books that will help others discover the real truthabout personal finances.



Smoke and Mirrors 7th Edition

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