Economic Indicators:

An Update for the 7 Rivers Region

I’ll pretend to know, but I probably don’t.

And the views expressed today might be

my own, but they probably do not reflect

the views of the sponsors, my

employer, or my parents.

Disclaimer:

Housing Market

An update on local foreclosures and

prices

-

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1,000.0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

Total Number of Foreclosures Filed in: Jackson, Juneau,

La Crosse, Monroe, Trempealeau, Vernon Counties

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08

7 Rivers Home Prices and Appraisals

Appraisal

Purchase Price

Appraisal

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08

Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices

Phoenix

Minneapolis

7 Rivers Region

Health Care

The “problems” and their local impact

- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

Improve it

Makie it Worse

Have No Effect

Unsure

Increased Gov't Involvement in Healthcare Will...

*Source: htttp://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm

National*7 Rivers

- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0

Increase

Decrease

Remain the Same

Unsure

The Amount You Will Pay For Medical Care Will...

*Source: htttp://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm

National*7 Rivers

Myth

Businesses are less competitive because

of the burden of health care.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

National Compensation Measures as a Share of GDP, NIPA 1960-2006

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, 1960-2006, Tables 1.1.5, 2.1, 6.11B, 6.11C, & 6.11D, 2008.

2006

Wages

Other Fringe Benefits and Payroll Taxes

51.8%

Private Group Health Insurance

0.6%

3.8%

45.6%

4.1%

6.7%

56.3% of GDP

56.4% of GDP

Myth

Costs are rising more rapidly than other

countries.

0 2 4 6 8 10

KoreaIrelandPolandNorwayGreece

United KingdomSpain

Czech RepublicAustriaMexico

NetherlandsBelgium

United StatesNew Zealand

FranceJapan

DenmarkCanada

SwitzerlandSwedenFinland

GermanyItaly

Iceland

1990-2007 Average annual % change in total health expenditure per capita, $PPP (OECD)

“If something can't go on forever, it won't.“

~Herb Stein

Problem

US has highest per capita health spending

0 5 10 15 20

United StatesFrance

SwitzerlandGermanyBelgiumAustria

CanadaDenmark

NetherlandsGreeceIceland

New ZealandSwedenNorway

ItalySpain

United KingdomFinland

Slovak RepublicIreland

HungaryCzech Republic

KoreaPolandMexico

Total Health Expenditure as a % of GDP

High Income

High Dispersion of Health Insurance

High Technology

Explanations

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000

To

tal e

xp

en

dit. o

n h

ea

lth

/ca

pita

, $

PP

P

GDP Per Capita $PPP

France

US

Korea

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000

To

tal e

xp

en

dit. o

n h

ea

lth

/ca

pita

, $

PP

P

GDP Per Capita $PPP

France

US

Korea

None of the proposals will address these

issues. Expect expenditures to increase.

Local Impact

(90.52,1334.642](25.01768,90.52](10.11037,25.01768][3.666642,10.11037]

Per Capita Stimulus Spending from ARRA

$1,334

$90

$10

$26

$3

$24

Long Term Consequences

Increase in publicly held debt.

0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

90.0

1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019

US Debt to GDP Ratio

Baseline

CBO

Obama

Budget

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015

US Debt to GDP Ratio

Baseline

CBO

Obama

Budget

0 50 100 150 200

JapanGreece

ItalyBelgiumPortugalHungary

United KingdomAustriaFrance

NetherlandsPolandIceland

United StatesTurkey

GermanySweden

SpainDenmark

FinlandKorea

CanadaIreland

Czech RepublicSlovak Republic

MexicoSwitzerland

New ZealandNorway

LuxembourgAustralia

2008 Debt to GDP Ratio for OECD

0 50 100 150 200

JapanGreece

ItalyBelgium

United StatesPortugalHungary

United KingdomAustriaFrance

NetherlandsPolandIcelandTurkey

GermanySweden

SpainDenmark

FinlandKorea

CanadaIreland

Czech RepublicSlovak Republic

MexicoSwitzerland

New ZealandNorway

LuxembourgAustralia

Worst Case Future Debt to GDP Ratio

Long Term Fiscal Problems

Medicare and Social Security.

Inflation

Is not the worry. Overly aggressive

monetary policy is…

“Either cuts in spending or increases in taxes

will be necessary to stabilize the fiscal

situation,”

“The Federal Reserve will not monetize the

debt.”

Green Shoots?