Economic Indicators:
An Update for the 7 Rivers Region
I’ll pretend to know, but I probably don’t.
And the views expressed today might be
my own, but they probably do not reflect
the views of the sponsors, my
employer, or my parents.
Disclaimer:
Housing Market
An update on local foreclosures and
prices
-
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1,000.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
Total Number of Foreclosures Filed in: Jackson, Juneau,
La Crosse, Monroe, Trempealeau, Vernon Counties
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08
7 Rivers Home Prices and Appraisals
Appraisal
Purchase Price
Appraisal
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08
Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices
Phoenix
Minneapolis
7 Rivers Region
Health Care
The “problems” and their local impact
- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Improve it
Makie it Worse
Have No Effect
Unsure
Increased Gov't Involvement in Healthcare Will...
*Source: htttp://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm
National*7 Rivers
- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Increase
Decrease
Remain the Same
Unsure
The Amount You Will Pay For Medical Care Will...
*Source: htttp://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm
National*7 Rivers
Myth
Businesses are less competitive because
of the burden of health care.
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
National Compensation Measures as a Share of GDP, NIPA 1960-2006
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, 1960-2006, Tables 1.1.5, 2.1, 6.11B, 6.11C, & 6.11D, 2008.
2006
Wages
Other Fringe Benefits and Payroll Taxes
51.8%
Private Group Health Insurance
0.6%
3.8%
45.6%
4.1%
6.7%
56.3% of GDP
56.4% of GDP
Myth
Costs are rising more rapidly than other
countries.
0 2 4 6 8 10
KoreaIrelandPolandNorwayGreece
United KingdomSpain
Czech RepublicAustriaMexico
NetherlandsBelgium
United StatesNew Zealand
FranceJapan
DenmarkCanada
SwitzerlandSwedenFinland
GermanyItaly
Iceland
1990-2007 Average annual % change in total health expenditure per capita, $PPP (OECD)
“If something can't go on forever, it won't.“
~Herb Stein
Problem
US has highest per capita health spending
0 5 10 15 20
United StatesFrance
SwitzerlandGermanyBelgiumAustria
CanadaDenmark
NetherlandsGreeceIceland
New ZealandSwedenNorway
ItalySpain
United KingdomFinland
Slovak RepublicIreland
HungaryCzech Republic
KoreaPolandMexico
Total Health Expenditure as a % of GDP
High Income
High Dispersion of Health Insurance
High Technology
Explanations
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000
To
tal e
xp
en
dit. o
n h
ea
lth
/ca
pita
, $
PP
P
GDP Per Capita $PPP
France
US
Korea
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000
To
tal e
xp
en
dit. o
n h
ea
lth
/ca
pita
, $
PP
P
GDP Per Capita $PPP
France
US
Korea
None of the proposals will address these
issues. Expect expenditures to increase.
Local Impact
(90.52,1334.642](25.01768,90.52](10.11037,25.01768][3.666642,10.11037]
Per Capita Stimulus Spending from ARRA
$1,334
$90
$10
$26
$3
$24
Long Term Consequences
Increase in publicly held debt.
0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
60.0
75.0
90.0
1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019
US Debt to GDP Ratio
Baseline
CBO
Obama
Budget
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015
US Debt to GDP Ratio
Baseline
CBO
Obama
Budget
0 50 100 150 200
JapanGreece
ItalyBelgiumPortugalHungary
United KingdomAustriaFrance
NetherlandsPolandIceland
United StatesTurkey
GermanySweden
SpainDenmark
FinlandKorea
CanadaIreland
Czech RepublicSlovak Republic
MexicoSwitzerland
New ZealandNorway
LuxembourgAustralia
2008 Debt to GDP Ratio for OECD
0 50 100 150 200
JapanGreece
ItalyBelgium
United StatesPortugalHungary
United KingdomAustriaFrance
NetherlandsPolandIcelandTurkey
GermanySweden
SpainDenmark
FinlandKorea
CanadaIreland
Czech RepublicSlovak Republic
MexicoSwitzerland
New ZealandNorway
LuxembourgAustralia
Worst Case Future Debt to GDP Ratio
Long Term Fiscal Problems
Medicare and Social Security.
Inflation
Is not the worry. Overly aggressive
monetary policy is…
“Either cuts in spending or increases in taxes
will be necessary to stabilize the fiscal
situation,”
“The Federal Reserve will not monetize the
debt.”
Green Shoots?