Semiconductor Fab Trends You Need to Know

July 10, 2014 Christan G. Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry Research Group, San Jose 2

The industry is adapting and changing

Economic Trends & Indicators

Fab Equipment Spending

New Fabs: Fab Construction Projects

New Fabs Starting and Fabs Closed

Capacity Trends

Fab Counts: Outlook into 2018

Christan G. Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry Research Group, San Jose 3 July 10, 2014

Source: IMF April 2014, others

YoY in % 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Contribution

to World in

2012

World 3.9 3.2 3.0 3.6 3.9

Advanced Economies: 1.7 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.3

USA 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.8 3.0 23.6

Euro Area: 1.5 -0.7 -0.5 1.2 1.5 18.4

Germany 3.1 0.9 0.5 1.7 1.6

France 2.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5

Japan -0.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.0 7.4

UK 1.0 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.5 4.1

Emerging Markets: 6.2 5.0 4.7 4.9 5.3

China 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.3 8.1

India 6.3 4.7 4.4 5.4 6.4 2.4

Brazil 2.7 1.0 2.3 1.8 2.7

GDP World others 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

World Bank (June 14) 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.5

IC Insight (Jan 14) 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.4

Henderson (May 14) 3.0 2.5 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.7

DuPont (Jan 14) 3.0 2.5 2.4 3.1

UBS (Apr 14) 3.2 2.7 2.5 3.2 3.4

Goldman Sachs (Jan 14) 3.7

Dow Jones Industrial Average hits a new

record of over 17,000 points

July 3, 2014

US unemployment rate: 6-year low

dropping to 6.1 (lowest since 2008)

Source: Reuters July 3, 2014)

Consumer Comfort Index improving

2011: -47

2012: -38

2013: -31

2014: -29

Source: Bloomberg (6-24-14)

S&P 500 surges to new record

with over 1985

July 3, 2014


2014: 7.5% 2015: 6.9%

2012: -28%, 2013: 5.8%


* Samsung Device Solution (memory, System LSI, LED) is one of 3 business units of Samsung Electronics.

Others are Consumer Electronics and IT&Mobile Communications and Devices

Memory, Foundry, and Logic are piling up


Companies

CY 2010 in

$M Companies

CY 2011 in

$M Companies

CY 2012 in

$M Companies: 8

CY 2013

in $M Companies: 8

CY 2014 in

$M est.

Samsung (Semiconductor) 10980 Samsung * (Semiconductor) 11700 Samsung (Semiconductor) 12200 Samsung (Semiconductor) 11400 Samsung (Semiconductor)11,000 - 12,000

TSMC 5940 Intel* 10800 Intel 11840 Intel 10750 Intel 10,000 - 11,000

Intel 5200 TSMC* 7286 TSMC 8382 TSMC 9777 TSMC 9,500 - 10,500

Hynix (was Hyndai) 3200

Globalfoundries (with

Chartered)** 5400 Globalfoundries 3800 Globalfoundries 4150 Globalfoundries 4,000 - 4,800

Toshiba + Sandisk 2814 Toshiba + Sandisk 3303 Hynix 3488 Hynix 3206 Hynix 3,600 - 3,900

Globalfoundries (AMD) 2700 Hynix (was Hyndai) 3150 Toshiba + Sandisk 2320 Toshiba + Sandisk 2637 Toshiba + Sandisk 3,000 - 3,600

UMC 1800

Micron with IM

Flash,Tech 2802

Micron with IM

Flash,Tech** 1863

Micron+Tech+IM Flash:

some Eplida+Rexchip 1775

Micron+Tech+IM

Flash+Eplida+Rexchip 2,700 - 3,300

Inotera (Micron, Nanya) 1750 Sony (Semiconductor) 1798 UMC 1810 UMC 1205 UMC 1,100 - 1,300

Micron with IM

Flash,Tech 1430 UMC 1600 Infineon 1144 SMIC 800 - 1,200

TI 1200 STMicroelectronics (was SGS Thomson)1260 SONY 1100

Elpida alone W/o Rexchip 1100 Infineon 1092

STMicroelectronics (was SGS Thomson)1035 Elpida alone W/o Rexchip 1000

Count 12 Count 12 Count 10 Count 8 Count 8 - 9

SUM 39,149 SUM 51,191 SUM 47,947 SUM 44,900 SUM*** 48,626

WW 52,218 WW 66,299 WW 59,558 WW 56,375 WW 61,075

Share club WW 75% Share club WW 77% Share club WW 81% Share club WW 80% Share club WW 80%

Top 5 28,134 Top 5 38,489 Top 5 39,710 Top 5 39,283 Top 5 40,080

Top 5 share WW 54% Top 5 share WW 58% Top 5 share WW 67% Top 5 share WW 70% Top 5 share WW 66%

*2011: record spending for Samsung, Intel, TSMC **2013: Micron acquires Elpida and Rexchip: start Aug 2013

***2014: used mid range to calculate number.

2014: some companies increased their original capex in 2014: Nanya, Inotera, Winbond, Vanguard

July 10, 2014 Christan G. Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry Research Group, San Jose 7

Wafer area shipments from the silicon suppliers to the fabs continue to increase and show that 2014 is much improved over 2013.

Actual May 2014 shipments reached an all-time monthly high:

MSI = Millions of Square Inches

http://www.google.com/imgres?sa=X&rlz=1T4WQIB_enUS567US567&biw=1307&bih=804&tbm=isch&tbnid=ehbJo8ZIQF80oM:&imgrefurl=http://www.theenergylibrary.com/node/11598&docid=O-kVvgViu9CR5M&imgurl=http://www.theenergylibrary.com/files/images/silicon.JPG&w=250&h=197&ei=qRHwUr-sHanV2AXY1oG4DA&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=421&page=2&start=19&ndsp=29&ved=0CK4BEIQcMBQ

Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2011; SEMI January 2014

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

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14

F2

01

5F

Millio

ns

of

Sq

ua

re In

ch

es

75 mm

100 mm 150 mm

125 mm

200 mm

300 mm

Includes polished and epi wafers. Excludes reclaim, non polished, and SOI.

July 10, 2014 Christan G. Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry

Research Group, San Jose

8

Christan G. Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry Research Group, San Jose

*SEMI WWSEMS:

Wafer+Mask

+Fab Facilities

9 July 10, 2014

Some companies increased their original capex for 2014: Nanya, Inotera, Winbond, Vanguard


• 2013 includes NT$20-30B for used 300mm equipment from Promos to Glofo.

10 July 10, 2014

At this time worldwide fab equipment spending is about same in 1H14 vs 2H14.

Fab equipment spending scenarios: 2014: 20% to 25%, 2015: 10% to 15%


In 2012 almost same $ was spent for expansions vs. upgrades

Trend forward: less expansion projects and more spending for upgrades


Most (not all) construction spending goes into new facilities.

13 July 10, 2014


2013 was a record year with over $9 billion


Starting fabs in 2009: new fabs: mainly foundry and power

Starting fabs in 2014: new fabs: mainly foundry, then memory

Counting all volume fabs begin volume production. Include power, exclude LEDs and EPI. New volume fabs are greenfield and shell only.

Showing volume fabs which closed and are still closed

* 300mm Fabs still closed: 1 Qimonda and Promos


Source: Semico (June 2014)

SEMI content: >$4B sales in 2020)

Semico: IoT Intelligent Gateway*)

* Semico: the units represent millions of gateway or hub devices. The gateway function can be a standalone box or embedded in a set top box or smart TV.

Gary Patton (IBM) at Confab: today there are about 12.5 Billion devices connected to the internet, this is expected to grow to 30 billion by 2020.

New life for 200mm fabs/tools driven by: 1. MEMS 2. IOT


Fab Count: -21% Fab Count: -12%

Fab Count: +5% to +10%


* 5 years excluded 2008, 2009

** 5 years excluded 2008, 2009, 2010


SEMI World Fab Forecast:

Since downturn the industry

spends more money

on upgrading existing facilities

19 July 10, 2014

* 2011-2015: excluding 2010 because

fab equipment growth was unusual high

Micron Feb 2014:

Industry bit supply growth slowing:

DRAM:

49% in 2010 to 24% in 2015

NAND:

74% in 2010 to 45% in 2015


Until 2009, we have never before seen installed capacity with negative change rate (YoY)!

Average change rate 2003 to 2007 (before downturn) was 15%

Average change rate 2010 to 2014 (after downturn) expected at 4%

20 July 10, 2014

In 1998 semi revenue -8%, surrounded by the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the Russian financial crisis in 1998.


2013 includes Micron’s acquisitions of Elpida/Rexchip and deals with Inotera

Number may not ad up to 100 due to rounding

21 July 10, 2014


Including Infineon in Dresden with 300mm thin wafer fab, Including 12-inch MRAM fab by Crocus in Russia

Not including R&Ds such as CNSE and IMEC

22 July 10, 2014

A slow down of fab closures is expected from 2015 to 2018

for 200mm fabs and 150mm fabs

In 2014:

300mm: 101

200mm: 185

Christan G. Dieseldorff, SEMI Industry Research Group, San Jose 23

Content as of end June 2014 (interim)

1148 Front End facilities (R&D to HVM) active and future

507 companies (R&D to HVM)

Including 249 LEDs and Opto facilities active and future

There are 60 future facilities starting HVM in 2014 or later.

Major investments (construction projects and/or equipping):

202 facilities in 2014, 189 facilities in 2015

July 10, 2014

Nov 13 to Feb 14 Feb 14 to May 14

Changes/ on facilities 282/ on 253 265/ on 222

Additions 17 18

Closing/cancellation or merged 8 closed/2 8


1. New Fabs: construction spending (Front End cleanrooms only!)

2013: record year with over US$ 9B

2014: -22% to -27% (~US$ 6.6B)

2015: -22% to -30% (~US$ 5B +/-)

2. Fab equipment spending Front End (new & used)

2014: 20% to 25% (~US$ 35B to 36B) - if 35B then 3rd largest on record

2015: 10% to 15% (~US$ 40B) - if 40B, then largest in record

3. Installed capacity for Front End fabs (without Discretes)

2014: 2 to 3%

2015: 3 to 4%

Future outlook beyond 2015: less than 4%

See more and latest trends in World Fab Forecast report in Excel!

Twitter www.twitter.com/SEMI_mktstats

Slideshare www.slideshare.net/ehallSEMI

YouTube www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats

Thank you

Contact:

Ed Hall [email protected]

www.semi.org/marketinfo

www.semi.org/fabs

35

Semiconductor Fab Trends You Need to Know

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