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Dr. David Schoellhamer Visiting Fulbright Professor, National Institute of Technology

Karnataka Research Hydrologist, U.S. Geological Survey, Sacramento,

California USA

Adjunct Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering,

University of California Davis

http://www.ucdavis.edu/

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Question: Over the coming century of global

climate change, how might the local

environment change?

Motivation: Adapt to changes in climatology,

hydrology, coastal processes, fisheries, andagriculture

Modeling challenges: Time and space

domains, downscaling, emissions scenarios,

multidisciplinary, indicators

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Indian Network of Climate Change

Assessment (INCCA)

Developed 2030s scenario for 4 sensitive regions:

Himalayas, North-eastern Region, Western Ghats,

and Coastal Region.

Impact on key climate-dependent economic sectors:

agriculture, water, natural ecosystems and

biodiversity, and human health

18 institutions and 43 scientists

November 2010 report

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Jim Cloern

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hydroclimatology

watershedhydrology

fish

biology

oceanography

environmentalengineering

numerical

modelingdata

analysis

estuarine

ecology

sediment

dynamics

environmentalengineering

About the Authors

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San Francisco Bay

and Watershed

Diversion of drinking

water for 25M (250

lakh) people

Agricultural irrigation$400B/yr ($40000 crore)

economic activity

Drains 40% of California

Habitat for fish and birdsUrbanized estuary

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Global

Circulation

Models

Downscaled

to Region

Watershed Model

Delta Models

Approach

3

Sea Level Golden Gate

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PCM = National Center for Atmospheric Research's Parallel Climate Model 1GFDL = NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab's GFDL CM2.1 model

B1

historical

B1 slowing emissions; moderate warming with PCM

A2accelerating emissions; fast warming with GFDL

Two Scenarios

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these are not predictions!

Results annual mean values

Faster Slower

+ 4 C

+ 1 C

- 250 mmno change

+ 110 cm

+ 89 cm

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- 7 km3 (~ 15%)

no change

- 10%

- 4%

Faster Slower

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+ 2.5 C

+ 0.8

C

+ 2.9 C

+ 1.0 C

+ 4

+ 3

- 25 mg/L

- 26 mg/L

Faster Slower

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Results extreme values per decade

www.water.ca.gov/

goldengatebridge.org

Faster Slower

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FUTURE VISIONS

Trends of increasing sea level, air and water

temperature, salinity intrusion

Trends of decreasing snowmelt and

sediment supply

Uncertainty about changes in precipitation

and runoff (annual variability will remain high)

Todays extremes will become tomorrows

norm

Magnitude of change depends on rate ofglobal warming

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ADAPTATION PLANNING

Environmental conditions beyond the range

of historical observations

Multi-year droughts and extreme floods

Anticipate surprises

Its more than climate change

Project planning geared to future climates,

not todays

Need for adaptation will depend on rate ofclimate change

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Thank you

Dr. Shrihari National Institute of Technology Karnataka

Institution of Engineers, Mangalore Local Centre, and Institute

of Valuers, Mangalore Branch

Institution of Engineers, Environmental Engineering Division