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Sakari Ahvenainen

Lt.Col (Retired), Researcher, Tampere

University of Technology

“Information Warfare –

An Evolutionary Point of View”

Telecom Forum studia generalia

TKK, 22nd

September 2009

This presentation is an updated version of a of a presentation in Finnish, which was presented 22nd May

2008 on the 5th National Seminar of Military Science, In National Defence University, Helsinki, Finland:

http://www.mpkk.fi/fi/ajankohtaista/sotatieteidenpaivat/Taktiikan%20abstraktit.html

E-mail:

sakari.ahvenainen@pp.inet.fi

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Index

About the presentation ..................................................................................................................................... 3

Process behind the presentation ...................................................................................................................... 3

Technology in this presentation ........................................................................................................................ 4

About warfare.................................................................................................................................................... 5

About General Systems Theory ......................................................................................................................... 6

About properties of evolutionary systems ........................................................................................................ 7

Emergence ......................................................................................................................................................... 8

Levels of matter, their sciences and warfare .................................................................................................... 9

Mega phases of warfare .................................................................................................................................. 10

Principal mega phases of evolution of technology ......................................................................................... 11

Three same changes and the 5th phase ........................................................................................................... 12

About information warfare as a 5th mega phase of war ................................................................................. 15

Information warfare, differences to earlier phases ........................................................................................ 16

5th Mega phase: It started in the 1980’s! ........................................................................................................ 17

Core of 5th mega phase: Complexity, internet and ICT.................................................................................... 18

5th mega phase: Complex systems .................................................................................................................. 19

Some conclusions ............................................................................................................................................ 19

Basic references ............................................................................................................................................... 20

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About the presentation

My presentation is an unconventional view on information warfare. According to the model which I use,

information warfare is a logical development from a certain long process of human evolution. There have

been four previous phases in this development and information warfare is a prediction for the fifth phase.

One can also predict from the model and three previous transformation phases which kind attributes this

evolutionary information warfare will have.

This presentation is an updated version of a of a presentation in Finnish, which was presented 22nd May

2008 on the 5th National Seminar of Military Science, In National Defence University, Helsinki, Finland

Process behind the presentation

In this picture there is the process behind my presentation. Main question is, what is warfare, and

especially in historical perspective and if this history has some relevance to the systems theory and

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evolution. The main source for my analyse is Quincy Wright’s book “A Study of War”. It is the end product

of the biggest research process that has ever been undertaken concerning warfare. It covered sixteen years

from 1926 to 1942 and produced sixty six Master’s examination or Ph.D work.

I have used general applications of systems theory and evolution as a validation tools for Wright’s work. So

there is four phases of warfare in Wright’s model covering some hundreds of thousands of years. Fifth

phase is a prediction and it turn out that it means global information warfare.

Technology in this presentation

We are here at the centre of Finnish technological know-how, so it is maybe worthwhile to show where

technology is situated in my presentation. It is one of nine elements that make up a human system. In

Wright’s model new information technology with other elements makes bigger human systems possible.

For instance writing made bigger projects, states possible. It is also important in this context that in the

fourth phase of Wright’s model of warfare, technology and science emerge as a main explanation of

warfare. Main but not the only one. One main points of systems theory is the strong relationship with a

system and its environment. This picture can be understood so that those other eight elements are the

environment of technology. If technology fails, it may be that it fails not because of bad technology but

because of some other elements that one has not taken enough into account in technology.

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About warfare

So what is warfare? In the context of information warfare the main question is: Is information a means for

warfare as violence is?

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About General Systems Theory

I have used the word system already quite many times. Evolutions and systems are two main points of my

presentation. So some word about systems.

The last point suggests that the existence is mathematical (?) and hierarchical structure.

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About properties of evolutionary systems

History is one kind of evolution and evolution one kind of system where system is a living species and the

environment the globe and other species. In this picture I have some properties of evolutionary systems. I

hypothesise that these properties concern also humans and human systems. For instance point five says

that a modern man cannot survive as a hunter gatherer, only as part of the environment that he has grown

in.

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Emergence

In evolution and systems emergence is a powerful notion. By understanding emergence very difficult

phenomenon can be explained, at least in principle. Like life and mind. In this picture the reaction ring on

the right is new system level that has a new pattern, ring of reactions. This ring of reactions has quite other

properties than the part reactions from A to L. To understand the new level we can forget the properties of

lower level, the joint reactions of the pieces A to L . Now we can rule the new level just by understanding

the properties of the ring. By this process many sciences are born. This is the way that battles make up an

operation, lots of neurons at the end a mind and atoms a molecule.

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Levels of matter, their sciences and warfare

This is a picture of hierarchy of sciences that emergence, new patterns, has made possible. So a man is just

a composition of elementary particles, but with many levels and many new pattern and pattern of patterns

between the elementary particles and a man. But one important warning! Higher sciences are just an

approximation of lower levels, approximation by forgetting some information. And it is interesting that

warfare as a human activity has the same level as matter in general.

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Mega phases of warfare

This is a systemic and evolutionary picture of Wright’s model about the main phases of history of warfare.

New information technology is the starting point and new bigger system size is the end product. The main

explanation changes according to the level involved. This picture says that after the invention on printing

on should look at technology and science to understand wars in that era. So the point of this era is about

western technology against other technology, for instance islamic or Chinese and about the battles inside

the winning technology, the western.

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Principal mega phases of evolution of technology

In the context of the previous picture technology and energy has changed in principal levels according to

this picture. This development is also very much dependent of systems size and specialization. Notice the

speed of information transfer by the use of speed of light compared to the information transfer by

mechanical means. The last phase means global village, at least as much as information is concerned.

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Three same changes and the 5th phase

There is three transform phases in Wright’s model. In the next three pictures I have presented changes that

have occurred every time in these three changes and what is the predicted change in the fifth phase. All

starts with information technology and it results at the size of human system. There are less units at highest

level and this ends up with globalization.

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In this picture strategy is a use of operations to win a war for the survival of a state or military alliance. Is

the global strategy a use of information wars to win a balance in our globe for the survival of mankind. If

every functions of war has to be integrated to the other functions of war, the complexity of for increases by

functions squared. So the control of warfare is increasingly about control of complexity.

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We know that the age of printing lasted some five hundred years and the age of writing about five

thousand years. So one can have a hypothesis that every new phase is one tenth of the previous one. This

ends up to a table like this. If one has sed thas the change is accelerating so says this table of hypothesis. To

be a system the higger level has to control the parts of that higger level. This suggest that the global and

cultural level are not yet a as well formed system as states. War has existed between units and inside units.

At global level there is only on unit so there is no war between units. But we have surely seen already

information wars inside the global level.

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About information warfare as a 5th mega phase of war

According to the previous transformation of levels one can pretty much predict how the information

warfare looks like.

Information has always been important. Now its not just important, it affects nearly everything, on a grant

scale.

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Information warfare, differences to earlier phases

Information warfare is warfare at a new level, so it will have emergent new properties. This is the same

thing as to say that some things change, the ones at the new level and some things do not change, the ones

at the old level. Although influenced by the new properties of the new level. These changes are quite

different compared to the traditional warfare of the industrial age.

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5th Mega phase: It started in the 1980’s!

The first application of information warfare was not the first Gulf War 1991. It was the crash of Soviet

Union and communism. And it was done by an strategic information operation. This case had many of the

previously mentioned differences between conventional and information warfare.

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Core of 5th mega phase: Complexity, internet and ICT

The core of the fifth phase is the rule of complexity by computers and computer networks. So internet is at

the core of fifth phase. In this picture there is an application of system of systems which is possible only by

automation, big processor capacity and big programs.

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5th mega phase: Complex systems

Some conclusions

1. Wright’s work is very systemic and evolutionary, although written some 25 years before systems

theory

2. By being the biggest research project on warfare Wright’ work conform also systems theory and

evolution

3. Wright’s model works on a big scale. Real history has variations, fluctuations and set backs

4. Wright’s model gives new insight to the history of warfare. E.g. it suggest that between 1500 –

2000 important was battles between technologies and inside the winning (western) technology

5. It may be hard to see the new

a) Because of the new level and its emergent patterns

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b) Because the old is still present

6. Importance of information as a central means of warfare

7. The core and the battlefields of information warfare are at the global level, but information affects

on all levels of warfare

8. There is no national information society. Information society (and warfare) is at the core a global

issue

9. States are still strong but cultures and global mankind have more and more influence

10. The new paradigm in science is the rule of complexity by computers and computer networks ( +

simulation + visualization)

11. The change at hand is fast, comprehensive and global

12. Human global ecology may be the next level of strategy (of survival and information) without

outside enemies.

Basic references

1. Bertalanffy Ludwig von (1968). General System Theory. Brazilier New York: The beginning of

General System Theory

2. Wright Quincy (1942). A Study of War. The University of Chicago Press: Maybe the biggest research

on warfare ever conducted. Wright’s idea (of history) of warfare is very evolutionary and very

systemic.

3. Smith J M & Szathmáry E (1995). The Major Transitions in Evolution. Oxford University Press: Basic

reference on biological evolution, where levels, specialization and information are primary notions.

4. Enqvist Kari (2007). Monimutkaisuus – Elävän olemassaolomme perusta (Complexity – The base of

our living existence). WSOY, Helsinki. About physics and emergence in Finnish.

5. Paloheimo Eero (2002). Megaevoluutio (Megaevolution). WSOY Helsinki: Finnish basic reference on

evolution. Instead of levels Paloheimo speaks about ”faasit” (phases).

6. Taylor Alastair M (1973). Some Political Implications of the Forrester World System Model. In the

book: Laszlo Erwin. World System – Models – Norms – Variations. International Library of Systems

Theory and Philosophy. Braziller. New York 1973. A geopolitical model of human history based on

system level (and communication)

7. Pagels Heinz R (1989). Dream of Reason – The Computer and the Rise of Sciences of Complexity.

Bantam Books, New York: Philosophical book about the base of postmodern thinking, about a

science that is possible only by use of computer, by rule of complexity

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8. Kauffman Stuart (1995). At Home In The Universe – The Search for the Laws of Self-Organization

and Complexity. Oxford University Press, New York: (Beginning of) Scientific theory of complexity

and emergence.

9. Bateson Gregory (2000). Steps to an Ecology of Mind. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago:

About system theory, epistemology, cybernetics, and evolution for a new kind of thinking

10. Roland Alex (1997).Technology and war"

http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/AD_Issues/amdipl_4/ roland.html 14.10.2008. Application of

Wright’s model.

Complexity, hierarchy, co evolution and technical systems. See e.g.

Tossavainen Teppo (2002). System Usability of Complex Technical Systems. TKK.