Risk Assessment Tool Workshop; UNESCO/IHA …unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0021/002147/214773e.pdf ·...

IHP/GHG-WG/11December 2011

UNESCO/IHA GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) RESEARCH PROJECT

WORKSHOP FRAMEWORK

AND

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION: TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THE EXPERT GROUP ON THE GHG

EMISSIONS ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR FRESHWATER RESERVOIRS

RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL WORKSHOP 06 - 07 OCTOBER 2011 – UNESCO-IHP - PARIS

The authors are responsible for the choice and presentation of facts contained in this publication and for the opinions expressed therein, which are not necessarily those of UNESCO and do not commit the Organization. The designations employed and the presentation of the material throughout this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL WORKSHOP

06 – 07 OCTOBER – UNESCO-IHP - PARIS

WORKSHOP FRAMEWORK

AND

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:

TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THE EXPERT GROUP ON THE GHG EMISSIONS

ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR FRESHWATER RESERVOIRS

Document track:

Edited and compiled by Joel A. Goldenfum (IHA)

Contributions from: Miguel Doria (UNESCO), Stéphane Descloux (EDF, France), Clelia Marti

(CWR, University of Western Australia), Yves Prairie (UQAM, Canada), Jürgen Schuol (Voith

Hydro, Germany), Carlos Tucci (IPH-UFRGS, Brazil)

UNESCO/IHA Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Research Project

1

LIST OF CONTENTS

WORKSHOP FRAMEWORK............................................................................................................ 2

Background to UNESCO/IHA Project ......................................................................................... 2

Workshop structure ................................................................................................................. 2

MEETING AGENDA ....................................................................................................................... 3

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION: TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THE EXPERT GROUP ON THE GHG

EMISSIONS ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR FRESHWATER RESERVOIRS .................................................... 4

2

WORKSHOP FRAMEWORK

Background to UNESCO/IHA Project Two scientific workshops on the Greenhouse Gas Status (GHG) of Freshwater Reservoirs were hosted by UNESCO, in Paris in 2006, and in Iguassu in 2007, as part of UNESCO IHP-VI (2002-2007) and continued under IHP-VII (2008-2013). One of the conclusions from the 2006 workshop was to focus on more research and better understanding of processes and key parameters leading to the emission of methane from tropical reservoirs. The 2007 workshop recommended that an analytical process should be developed to determine whether GHG emissions from future reservoir sites are likely to be a significant issue – to support this process, that a Measurement Specification Guidance should be developed, to be applied to a set of representative reservoir schemes in order to collect data for the development of predictive modelling tools and mitigation guidance for vulnerable sites.

Through the UNESCO initiative, the issue of GHG emissions from reservoirs has been pursued under coordination from IHA, with assistance from a group of scientists through a project proposal for a global assessment of GHG emissions from freshwater reservoirs. This work was followed up by a meeting in Paris in January 2008 to finalise a Scoping Paper, a Workshop on Measurement Guidance in London in November 2008, a Workshop on Site Selection and Database in São Paulo in May 2009, a Workshop on Field Measurements and Data Analysis in Montreal in September 2009, a Workshop on Interfaces between the field data and the predictive modelling tools, in Oakridge in August 2010 and

the present Workshop on the Risk Assessment Tool.

The Project aims to improve understanding on the impact of reservoirs on natural GHG emissions, to obtain a better comprehension on the processes involved and to help overcome knowledge gaps. The overall objective of the Project is the evaluation of the carbon footprint (net GHG emissions), resulting from the construction of a freshwater reservoir within a river basin, as well as potential mitigation measures. The main strategies of the Project can be summarized as: development of a measurement guidance; site election, field measurements and measurement coordination; development and validation of one or more empirical modelling tools; development and calibration of one or more process-based modelling tools; guidance and assessment tools for mitigation of GHG emissions for vulnerable sites.

Workshop structure

The Risk Assessment Tool Workshop was convened in Paris, France, hosted by UNESCO and organised by IHA, as part of the UNESCO/IHA Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Research Project, on 06 – 07 October 2011 (see Meeting Agenda).

The following professionals were present at the Meeting:

Name Institution Country

1 Descloux, Stéphane EDF France 2 Doria, Miguel* UNESCO - 3 Goldenfum, Joel** International Hydropower Association - 4 Marti, Clelia CWR, University of Western Australia Australia 5 Prairie, Yves UQAM Canada 6 Schuol, Jürgen Voith Hydro Germany 7 Tucci, Carlos IPH-UFRGS Brazil

*Also member of the Governance Committee

** Management Team

The workshop had the objective to define the model specifications and to draft the Terms of Reference (ToR) for the development of an empirical model (GHG Risk Assessment Tool) to identify potentially critical/non-critical projects in advance.

The results of the discussions are presented as the Terms of Reference of the Expert Group on the GHG Emissions Assessment Tool for Freshwater Reservoirs.

3

RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL WORKSHOP

06 – 07 OCTOBER – UNESCO-IHP - PARIS

MEETING AGENDA

Day Time Activity

06/OCT

Thursday Afternoon

Opening

13:00 – 13:15

13:15 – 13:30

Abdin Salih (Director of SC/HYD and Secretary of IHP)

Miguel Doria (UNESCO-IHP)

Schedule and Objectives of the Workshop

Joel Goldenfum (IHA)

Short

Presentations 20 min

Presentations

and 10 min

discussion

13:30 – 14:00

14:00 – 14:30

14:30 – 15:00

Steps towards an empirical model


A meta-analysis of surface CO2 and CH4 fluxes from hydro-electric

reservoirs: what are the main knowledge gaps left?

Yves Prairie (UQAM - Canada)

Coupled physical-biogeochemical modelling of GHG emissions

from freshwater reservoirs

Clelia Marti (C WR, University of Western Australia)

15:00 – 15:30 Coffee Break

Discussion 15:30 – 18:00

General discussion on:

Model structure

Main driving variables to be adopted

Available data

Thresholds

Other relevant aspects

07/OCT

Friday

Morning

Model

Specifications

9:00 – 10:15

10:15 –10:45

10:45 – 12:30

Discussions: Specifications for the GHG Risk Assessment

Tool

Coffee-Break

Outline of the structure of the GHG Risk Assessment Tool

12:30 – 14:00 LUNCH

Afternoon

Terms of

Reference

14:00 – 15:30

15:30 – 16:00

16:00 – 17:45

Discussions: structure of the Terms of Reference (ToR)

Coffee Break

Draft document: contents of the ToR

Closure 17:45 – 18:00 Closing Remarks

Participants:

Stéphane Descloux (EDF, France)

Miguel Doria (UNESCO)


Clelia Marti (CWR, University of Western Australia)

Yves Prairie (UQAM, Canada)

Jürgen Schuol (Voith Hydro, Germany)

Carlos Tucci (IPH-UFRGS, Brazil)

UNESCO/IHA Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Research Project

4

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION: TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THE EXPERT GROUP ON THE GHG EMISSIONS ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR FRESHWATER RESERVOIRS

Terms of Reference Page 1 Expert group on the GHG Emissions Assessment Tool - UNESCO/IHA GHG RESEARCH PROJECT

TERMS OF REFERENCE

OF THE EXPERT GROUP ON THE GHG EMISSIONS ASSESSMENT TOOL

FOR FRESHWATER RESERVOIRS

FOR THE UNESCO/IHA GHG RESEARCH PROJECT

1 SCOPE AND ROLE

The “Expert Group on the GHG Emissions Assessment Tool for Freshwater Reservoirs” (the Expert Group) is an expert body established by the “UNESCO/IHA GHG Research Project – GHG Status of Freshwater Reservoirs” (the Project).

The Expert Group will directly contribute to the Project, as specified in these Terms of Reference.

2 OBJECTIVE

The objective of the Expert Group is to develop the first version of an empirical modelling tool for the assessment of GHG emissions from freshwater reservoirs: the UNESCO/IHA GHG Risk Assessment Tool.

3 MEMBERSHIP

3.1 The Expert Group will be composed of up to 10 members, with expertise in one or more technical areas related to GHG emissions, statistical data analysis and modelling (with special emphasis for modelling with scarce data). Individual members are appointed on the basis of their own merit but also with a view of representing different geographic regions of the world, as well as wide and diverse networks of stakeholders. Representation from all geographic regions is intended.

3.2 Members will be nominated by UNESCO IHP and IHA.

3.3 Participation in the group is honorary. IHA may, in specific circumstances, when the group convenes, cover travel expenses and per diem of some Expert Group members.

4 ACTIVITIES

4.1 The Expert Group will meet at times and places to be agreed, within the scope of the timeframe presented below. It will also communicate by e-mail and other agreed channels as necessary and feasible.

4.2 The Expert Group will develop a tool for the assessment of GHG emissions in planned or existing freshwater reservoirs, to estimate their vulnerability to GHG emissions. The UNESCO/IHA GHG Risk Assessment Tool will be developed as an empirical model (along the lines specified in Annex A), based on information already available (as specified in Annex B). The UNESCO/IHA GHG Risk Assessment Tool will be an integral part of the UNESCO/IHA GHG Research Project – GHG Status of Freshwater Reservoirs. UNESCO and IHA will hold full rights over the tool. Experts and contributors will be acknowledged, collectively or individually, when suitable and adequate.

4.3 The Expert group will provide inputs to and be supported by a technical assistant for the collection and preparation of relevant data. This assistant will be designated and if needed contracted by IHA, in close consultation with the Expert Group.

4.4 The results of the work of the Expert Group will be the joint property of UNESCO and IHA. Communication of the results and details of the Project will be carried out jointly by UNESCO and IHA


5 TERMINATION

The Expert Group will be terminated on the completion of the activities described above or by decision of UNESCO IHP or IHA.

6 TIMEFRAME

Mid-November 2011 – designation of technical assistant; start of data gathering

End of January 2012 – First version of dataset prepared

Beginning of March 2012 – First version of model prepared

End-March 2012 – Expert Group meeting, in a place to be confirmed by end of November 2011

Beginning of April 2012 – First draft of assessment tool circulated among Expert Group members for comments

Mid-April 2012 – Comments received from Expert Group; second-draft sent to UNESCO/IHA GHG Peer Review Group (“UNESCO/IHA Forum”) for comments;

End of May 2012 – Final version of UNESCO/IHA GHG Risk Assessment Tool v1, made available at UNESCO and IHA websites

December 2012 – Submission of scientific paper for publication


ANNEX A

Structure of the UNESCO/IHA GHG Risk Assessment Tool for Freshwater Reservoirs

The GHG Risk Assessment Tool will be developed as an empirical model, based on information

already available, for application to new sites, or even existing freshwater reservoirs, to estimate

their vulnerability (existing or future) to GHG emissions. This model should be able to make

qualitative estimates of GHG emissions based on limited field data.

The model will be developed based on Regression Analysis

- Multiple regression

- Regression trees

- etc.

It will be able to assess Gross GHG emissions

- CO2 + CH4 emissions (N2O emissions if sufficient data is available)

- “easy to use” (user friendly interface) – spreadsheet format (such as ExcelTM) is

preferred

- Range of uncertainty

- Qualitative assessments of outputs that we cannot predict

- Comparative assessments with other technologies (only under the hypothesis of

exclusively hydro – conservative estimate)

Flux per sq meter

g CO2 eq. (kW.h)-1

lifetime assessment

guidelines for comparison (IPCC SRREN)

for multi-purpose reservoirs:

table with “x” ranges (x=10%, 50%, 80%, etc) for apportioning to hydro use

It will be able to perform carbon stock changes evaluations, to properly assess the carbon

budget

- Carbon loads

- To check the estimates

Hypothesis to test: Type of power plant scheme

- run of river

- storage

- pump storage


Main driving variables to be adopted:

At least 3 different independent variables

Contributing catchment:

- DOC inflow

- P and N inflow

Creating GHG stock:

- Residence time (2 groups: short and long)

- Reservoir age

- Latitude

- Drawdown zone exposure

- Trapping rate (Sedimentation)

Releasing GHG stock:

- Water depth

- (increased) Surface area

- (increased) Volume

- Reservoir shape (shoreline/surface ratio)

- Low level outlets

Proposed structure for the final document:

1. Executive Summary

2. Background

3. Objectives and purposes of the Tool (why, for what, how and when to use it)

4. GHG emissions Concepts

5. User Guide Flow chart (what is the minimum data needed to perform the estimations? /guidelines/decision tree)

5.1 Estimation procedures and parameters 5.2 Analysis/Interpretation of the results 5.3 Uncertainty analysis and limitations 5.4 Comparative assessments with other technologies (under the hypothesis of exclusively

hydro – conservative estimate) 5.5 Carbon stock changes 5.6 Examples of application

6. Complementary studies 6.1 Acquisition of missing data/information 6.2 Updating the assessment

7. Conclusions and Recommendations

8. References

Annexes A- Database B - Methods

Model description/development Model validation

C - Glossary


ANNEX B

Data for the development of the UNESCO/IHA GHG Risk Assessment Tool for Freshwater Reservoirs

Available data

85 Reservoirs already adopted on the paper from Barros et al. (2011)1

Collect existing data from:

- UNESCO/IHA GHG Project

- IHA members and non-members

- Written technical reports -----

- Technical congresses/meetings

- Cover gaps in Barros et al. data

- Weighted data analysis (according to the significance of the measurements), with

weighting criteria to be clearly documented

Data from the countries and regions such as the following may be potentially included,

pending on accessibility:

Africa

Argentina

Australia

Brazil

Canada

China

Colombia

France

Laos

Malasia

Norway

Russia

United States

Venezuela

Separate data set for verification/validation

Outline the data to be requested - based on the UNESCO/IHA datasheet:

- Minimum Essential Data to be requested – see next section

- Complementary Data (if available) – see next section

1 Nathan Barros, Jonathan J. Cole, Lars J. Tranvik, Yves T. Prairie, David Bastviken, Vera L. M. Huszar,

Paul del Giorgio and Fábio Roland. Carbon emission from hydroelectric reservoirs linked to reservoir

age and latitude. Nature Geoscience http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1211 (2011); published online 31 July

2011; corrected online 2 August 2011

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1211


Minimum Essential Data to be requested:

Systems (reservoir name)

Latitude (degrees)

Longitude (degrees)

AGE (years)

CO2 flux (mg C m-2 d-1) and/or CO2 partial pressure or concentration (mg C)

Measurement Date

Method employed and spatial time distribution

CH4 flux (mg C m-2 d-1) and/or CH4 partial pressure or concentration (mg C)

Measurement Date

Method employed and spatial time distribution

Mean Depth (m)

Area (Km2)

Volume (Km3)

Residence Time (days)

Input of TP (mg m-2 d-1) and/or concentration of TP (µg L-1 P) within the reservoir

Measurement Date

Input of DOC (mg m-2 d-1) and/or concentration of DOC (mg L-1 DOC) within the reservoir

Measurement Date

Emission pathway (Diffusion “D” / Bubble “B”)

Data Source


Complementary Data (if available):

Reservoir information: Reservoir Name: Reservoir owner/operator: Country: Location (x°N/y°E): Altitude: River/Basin: Start of construction: End of construction: Commissioning date: Impoundment date: Main Reservoir use: Secondary reservoir uses: Climatic zone (according to Köppen-Geiger climate classification): Dry density of flooded vegetation: Biomass of plants, algae, bacteria and animals in the reservoir (t/ha) Biomass of plants, algae, bacteria and animals in the drawdown zone (t/ha) Stratification of the reservoir body (likelihood – yes/no): Soil Carbon content in the flooded area Catchment information: Soil type: SOC - Soil Organic Carbon (%) Land Use Agricultural practices Topobathymetric Information:

Contributing Catchment Area (km2):

Reservoir: Flooded Area (km2):

Min:

Max:

River bed:

Total Flooded Area:

Permanently flooded area:

Drawdown zone area:

Aquatic Flooded Area:

Terrestrial Flooded Area:

Reservoir volume (m3x106):

Min:

Max:

Average:

Shoreline length (km):

Reservoir length (km):

Depths Annual Season

Wet dry

mean depth (m)

max depth (m)


Hydroclimatological information: Mean Annual Rainfall (mm/year) Mean Long Term Incoming Flow (m3/s) Length of the ice free period (days) Evaporation (mm/year)

Turbines information:

Turbine type Power (MW) Number

of turbines

Mean Power generation (MWh/year)

Water intake for turbines and spillways:

Maximum depth (m):

Minimum depth (m):

Risk Assessment Tool Workshop; UNESCO/IHA …unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0021/002147/214773e.pdf ·...

Documents

Transcript of Risk Assessment Tool Workshop; UNESCO/IHA …unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0021/002147/214773e.pdf ·...