Report No. 13174-CD

ChadCountry Environmental Strategy PaperJune 1994

Country Operations DivisionAfrica RegionSahelian Department

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank authorization

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENT

Currency Unit = CFA franc (CFAF)US$1.00 = CFAF (March 31, 1994)CFAF 1 million = US$1,722.65 (March 31, 1994)

SYSTEM OF WEIGHTS AND MEASURE: METRIC

Metric U.S. Eguivalent

1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft)1 kilometer (kim) = 0.62 miles (mi)1 square kilometer (kimn) = 0.39 square mile (sq. mi)1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres (a)1 metric ton (t) = 2,205 pounds Ob)1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2046 pounds (lb)

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 - December 31

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ASECNA Agence pour la S6curite de la Navigation en Afrique et a MadagascarATETIP Agence Tchadienne d'Execution des Travaux d'Interet PublicBCR Bureau Central du RecensementB.E.T. Bourkou, Ennedi and TibestiBRGM Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et MinieresBSA Bureau des Statistiques AgricolesCESP Country Environmental strategy PaperCILONG Centre d'Information et de Liaison pour les Organisations Non-GouvernementalesCILSS Comite Inter-Etat de Lutte contre la Secheresse dans le SahelCNAR Centre National d'Appui a la RechercheCNED Comite National d'Energie DomestiqueCONACILS Correspondant national du CILSSCTA Cellule technique d'appuiCTA/LCD CTA/Lutte Contre la DesertificationCTA/DR CTA/Developpement RuralDIAPER Diagnostique PermanentDREM Direction des Ressources en Eau et de la MeteorologieDRTA Direction de Recherches et Techniques AgronomiquesDSEED Direction de la Statistique, des Etudes Economiques et DemographiquesEPS Executive Project SummaryESMAP Energy Sector Management and PlanningFAO (UN) Food and Agriculture OrganizationGIS Geographic Information SystemIGN Institut Geographique National (de France)IUCN International Union for the Conservation of NatureMET Ministere de l'Environnement et du TourismeNEAP National Environmental Action PlanNGO Non-governmental organizationNRM Natural Resources ManagementONDR Office National de D6veloppement RuralONHPV Office National d'Hydraulique Pastorale VillageoiseORSTOM Organisation de Recherche Scientifique et Technique de l'Outre-MerPADS Programme d'Actions Sociales pour le DdveloppementPNLCD Plan National de Lutte Contre la DesertificationPNE Projet National d'ElevageROPANAT Rdseau de Suivi des Paturages NaturellesSOFRECO Socidtd Frangaise de Realisation, d'Etudes et de ConseilSONACOT Societd Nationale Commerciale du TchadSTEE Socidtd Tchadienne d'Eau et d'ElectricitdUNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of theirI official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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PREFACE

This report is one of a series of Country Environmental Strategy Papers prepared by World Bankstaff both for internal discussion and to strengthen policy dialogue with borrower countries onenvironmental issues and towards the preparation of a National Environmental Action Plan. This reporthas been prepared by Ms. Joy Hecht (Consultant) and has benefitted from contributions from EmmerichM. Schebeck (Projects Adviser), Sarah Forster (Consultant, AF5DR), Amadou B. Cisse (PrincipalCountry Officer) and Jan Bojo (Environmental Economist). Ms. Katherine Marshall is the DepartmentDirector.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................. vii

1. INTRODUCTION: THE CHADIAN CONTEXT .......................... 1Purposes of the CESP ....................................... 1What is 'Environment"? ..................................... 1Criteria for Ranking Environmental Problems ........................ 2The Chadian Context ....................................... 2

Economy ......................................... 2Political situation .................................... 3Demography ....................................... 3Bioclimatic zones and associated production systems .............. 4Water resources ..................................... 5Biodiversity and wildlife ................................ 7Carrying capacity of the environment ........................ 9

2. CAUSES OF ENVIRONMENTAL HARM .............................. 12Causes of Environmental Harm ................................. 12Impacts of Resource-Based Economic Activity ........................ 13

Agriculture ........................................ 13Forestry .......................................... 16Livestock ......................................... 18Fisheries .......................................... 19

Urban Environment ........................................ 20Water supply ....................................... 20Sewage . ......................................... 21Drainage and roads ................................... 21Solid waste ........................................ 22

3. INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY CONTEXT .23Current Organizational Structure .23

Environment .23Agriculture .24Livestock .25Energy .25Rural water resources .26Urban water supply .26Urban drainage and roads .27

Environmental Planning .27Introduction .27Desertification Control (PDLCD) .28Rural Development .29Urban planning .30

Legal Structure for Environmental Protection .30General Framework .30Land tenure .31Forest tenure and pricing .33

Non-Governmental Organizations .35

4. STRATEGIC ISSUES ................... 38

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How Can We Best Support Chad? ................................ 38Why the Environment .................................... 39Strategies for Addressing Environmental Concerns ..................... 41

Integrated participatory approaches to NRM .................... 41Urban project design .................................. 43

Information Needs .................................... 43NEAP Status and Next Steps .................................. 45

TABLES

Table 1: Evolution and structure of GDPTable 2: Population and Population Density by PrefectureTable 3: Sustainable and Actual Population DensitiesTable 4: Population Density by PrefectureTable 5: Tax Rates on Wood-based FuelsTable 6: Priority Ranking of Chadian Environmental Problems

APPENDICES

Appendix A: Existing Data for Environmental ManagementAppendix B: Documents ConsultedAppendix C: People Consulted

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CHAD

COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL STRATEGY PAPER

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION: THE CHADIAN CONTEXT

1. This document serves two purposes; to improve the World Bank's understanding of environmentalissues in Chad, and to serve as an input into the country's own environmental planning process. Itdefines the environment broadly as an input into many sectors of economic activity rather than as adiscrete sector, and consequently places major emphasis on integrating environmental considerations intosectoral projects. Several criteria determine which environmental problems warrant attention andinvestment; the number of people affected by the problem, the impacts on income, and the extent towhich it is possible to resolve the problem through policy reforms or capital investment. A fourthcriterion concerns the protection of species, habitats, or ecosystems of unique global importance, suchas the wintering grounds for European birds provided by Lake Chad. Because the benefits of suchresources accrue primarily to the international community, it is harder to justify their protection as longas the costs of environmental protection would be borne by the Chadians.

2. Chad is one of the poorest countries in the world, with per capita income estimated at $US 260in 1991. The census completed in 1993 puts total population at 6,288,261 (up from 3,192,611 in 1968),of whom 1,327,570 were urban dwellers, 4,601,622 were sedentary rural dwellers, and 359,069 werenomads. The economy is based on the primary sector, which accounts for 35 to 40% of GDP andprovides an income to more than 80% of the population. Livestock and cotton provide just over 50%of the country's export earnings, down from 77% in 1983; they are the major source of cash income inrural areas. The recurring military and civil conflicts which have beset the country since 1979 haveseverely hampered government capacity to manage projects or absorb donor investments, with some 40%of government expenditures going to the military, and civil service salaries paid irregularly.

3. Chad is conventionally divided into several broad bioclimatic zones, exhibiting distinct agro-silvo-pastoral production systems. Their spatial delimitation is not precise, because no clear physicallandmarks separate one zone from another. The northern half of the country is the Saharan and Saharo-Sahelian zones, which include all areas with less than 400 mm of rainfall per year. Agriculture is limitedto oasis areas, and population is sparse. The Sahelian zone, which includes N'Djamena, receives up to600 mm of rainfall per year. Agriculture is characterized by rainfed cultivation of millet, sorghum,cowpeas, and peanuts, and irrigated vegetable gardens in the wadis. While total rainfall is sufficient toproduce adequate harvests, its spatial and temporal variability poses significant risks. The Sudanian zonereceives from 600 to 1200 mm of rainfall. Vegetation in the northern part of this region is characterizedby mixed dense savannah, while the south is woodland savannah and deciduous open forest. Cultivationsystems are primarily agricultural and agro-pastoralist, with crops including maize, cotton, cowpeas,millet, sorghum, sesame, taro, and cotton. The Guinean zone occupies only the southernmost tip of thecountry, receiving more than 1200 mm of rainfall. Because this region is so small--some suggest thatthere no longer is any Guinean zone in Chad--it is relatively unimportant in terms of population orproduction.

4. Chad's resource base is limited by the low level of rainfall in most of the country. However, itdoes have a few areas of particular importance in terms of biodiversity and wildlife. Lake Chad is ofinternational importance as one of the few stopovers or wintering places for migratory birds crossing theSahara. Lake Lerd provides habitat to a species of endangered manatees, and Zakouma National Park

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is reported to contain a large population of elephants. Although most of the relatively humid parts of thesouthern third of the country can probably still support more people than live there now, in certainpockets the resource base is already severely strained; this is particularly true with respect to fuelwoodresources around N'Djamena and in the agricultural area around Moundou.

CAUSES OF ENVIRONMENTAL HARM

5. Natural resource degradation in Chad may be attributed to four major factors; human populationincrease, decreased rainfall over the past forty years, recurrent warfare and social and cultural patternbehavior. These factors lead to changes in several key sectors of the environment, particularlyagriculture, forestry, livestock production, and fisheries. In agriculture, resource pressure is likely tolead to expanded cultivation, with negative effects on soil quality, erosion, water quality, and eventuallywildlife through the destruction of their habitat. The most serious impact on forest resources comes fromthe consumption of wood as a cooking fuel and bushfires this has led to massive destruction of forestsaround N'Djamena and, to a lesser extent, around other cities. This threatens the energy supply to urbanareas, leads to rapid soil erosion, and destroys wildlife habitat. Recently, interest has grown in expandedcommercial use of Chad's acacias for production of gum arabic; if feasible, this would increase economicincentives for sustainable management of those trees. In livestock production, environmental problemsarise from grazing patterns which do not take into consideration the complex role of livestock in pastoralproduction systems; this can involve overgrazing, badly timed grazing, or other patterns which do notallow natural vegetation to regenerate. Livestock production is also linked to environmental problemsas decreasing rainfall pushes herders towards the south, putting them in direct conflict with agriculturalistsand agro-pastoralists for access to a limited resource base. In the fisheries area, the apparent decreasein stocks is probably due to overfishing, which is difficult to regulate given the institutional climate ofthe country.

6. Chad's urban environmental problems, experienced primarily in N'Djamena, are conceptually lesscomplex than its natural resource management problems. The key issues relate to water, sewers,drainage, and trash. The city has no sewage collection system, and there is a serious danger that its watersupply may be contaminated in the near future as a result. Urban drainage is a significant problem duringthe rainy season, when the saturated ground cannot absorb enough water and flooding is a problem. Thenetwork of canals and drainage basins designed to channel rainwater into the river is inadequate to meetthe city's needs, creating serious hazards from standing water. There are no planned activities to planttrees in the city and in the neighborhood. The city also has no trash collection service; household wasteis placed in empty lots and sometimes burned in the streets, both of which constitute health hazards aswell. Since the country is not industrialized and there are relatively few cars, air pollution is not anissue, although the proposal to build an oil refinery near N'Djamena could make it one.

INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY CONTEXT

7. Environmental problems are the responsibility of a number of different government agencies.Until 1993 the Ministry of Environment and Tourism was responsible for forestry, fisheries andenvironmental protection, the Ministry of Livestock for pastoralism, and the Ministry of Agriculture andthe National Office for Rural Development for agriculture and extension. In 1993, environment wasmoved into the Ministry of Agriculture, but the staff of the new Environment Directorate still seethemselves as quite separate from agriculture. Moreover, energy considerations are the responsibility ofthe Ministry of Mines, Energy, and Water Resources; thus supply side of fuelwood issues come underenvironment while the demand side under energy. Responsibility for urban infrastructure andenvironment is similarly split among the municipal government, the Ministry of Public Works, and the

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parastatal water and energy company. The general picture is one of considerable fragmentation andsectoralization; although in this respect Chad may be little different from most Sahelian or even westerncountries.

8. The Chadian government has undertaken two separate planning processes related to NRM issuesand one on urban problems. One of the NRM efforts is the preparation of the Plan Directeur de LutteContre la Desertification (PDLCD), which focuses on natural resources management and is under theauthority of the Director of Forestry. The other focuses on rural development, and is under the authorityof the Director-General of the Ministry of Agriculture. (When the two processes began, they were notin the same ministry.) A round table on rural development was held in December, 1993, at which acomprehensive set of documents describing the country's problems and proposing policy reforms,institutional restructuring, and investment projects which could help address those problems. Thedesertification round table is still under preparation. The urban planning process has begun morerecently, and is expected to provide a framework for addressing the environmental problems of the capitalin particular.

9. The legal framework for environmental protection is weak. A scattering of laws address forestprotection, endangered species, and other conservation issues, and the country is a signatory to severalinternational treaties and conventions. However, a Forestry Code has been adopted in August 1989, butthis has not been followed by implementation instructions. There are no pollutant discharge regulationsand no national requirements to do environmental impact assessments for infrastructure or constructionprojects (though most donor agencies, which pay for the investments, do have such requirements). Theland tenure situation is confused, with a mix of traditional, French colonial, and modern Chadian systemsin effect. Forest rights are also somewhat confused. According to existing law most forest resourcesbelong to the state and a set of fees and taxes are imposed on cut wood. A revised forest code whichallows somewhat more village control was prepared in the late 1980s, but it was never signed into law.Moreover, the existing regulations are weakly enforced, if at all, so fuelwood cutting is in practicesomewhat anarchic.

STRATEGIC ISSUES

10. A strategy for addressing environmental issues in Chad must answer several general questions.First, what can reasonably be accomplished given the present political climate? This clearly goes beyondenvironmental considerations. Strategies which minimize dependence on the civil service are likely tobe the most effective; this is the route which many donors have gone in working in the country. Second,how important is the environment, given the country's extreme poverty and instability? Two argumentsmay be made for maintaining a secondary, if not a primary focus on the environment. In rural areas,the natural resource base is the source of most income, so strategies whose primary goal is to increaseincome must be rooted in sustainable resource management practices, or their effects will be short-lived.In urban areas, environmental problems are posing serious public health hazards, which deserve attentionin any program oriented towards increasing basic standards of living. Neither of these argumentsprovides much justification for the Government of Chad or the World Bank to work on biodiversity orwildlife conservation; fortunately, other donors are supporting international environmental groups whichaddress these issues. Based on the seriousness of the problems and the feasibility of addressing them,this paper ranks environmental problems according to their suitability for intervention. Of highestpriority are peri-urban forestry and urban water supply and drainage issues. Of moderate priority arefisheries management and land degradation from agriculture or herding. Of low priority are pollution,wildlife conservation, and urban sewerage.

11. In rural areas, an integrated approach to environmental issues is appropriate, incorporating theminto projects designed to increase incomes rather than creating special environmental projects. This willcall for an interdisciplinary and interministerial approach to project design and implementation, whichmay be difficult both for Chadian agencies and for the Bank. In urban areas this will be somewhatsimpler, because environmental improvement is not an inherent part of household production strategies,but may be addressed more discretely without missing important determinants of project effectiveness.An environmental strategy should also pay particular attention to improving the information base forresource management, incorporating data collection and data sharing components into all projects so asincrementally to strengthen the information available to support decision-making by both the governmentand donor agencies.

12. The question of whether Chad needs to prepare a National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP)has been on the table for some time. The country has been engaged in intensive environmental planningwork for several years. While these efforts are not, perhaps, as complete as might be hoped, they haveinvolved a major effort by virtually all of the government agencies and individual civil servants whowould be involved in a NEAP. Therefore, the Bank and other donors must not launch an effort whichin any way duplicates the ongoing processes, nor should a NEAP be developed as an umbrella plan whichincorporates work already underway or completed. Instead, the Government should identify the specificelements which are missing from the ongoing processes, and the donor community may provide thesupport necessary to help the government add them in, within the context of the existing processes. Thisapproach to national environmental planning will address the substantive needs for additional work,without minimizing the efforts already made in this area both by government agencies and by otherdonors.

1. INTRODUCTION: THE CHADIAN CONTEXT

Purposes of the CESP

1.1 This document serves two purposes. The first is to improve the World Bank's understanding ofenvironmental issues in Chad, their place in the development process, and their implications for Bank-financed activities in the country. Three important considerations must be borne in mind. First, theChadian economy is heavily dependent on the country's natural resource base. Development activitiesmust therefore reinforce the ongoing ("sustainable") ability of the resource base to play a full role ineconomic development. Second, development activities should not have unintentional negative effectson the environment. Third, insofar as possible or appropriate, specific Chadian natural resources ofregional or global ecological importance must be protected, even if they are not of economic importanceto Chad.

1.2 The second purpose of this document is to serve as an input into the country's own environmentalplanning process. Given the political situation in Chad, the preparation of a National EnvironmentalAction Plan (NEAP) has not been actively promoted to date. The Government is, however, developingits own approaches to environmental issues through round tables on rural development and environment,and through a comprehensive urban planning process, which may be regarded as building blocks of aNEAP.1 Therefore, while this document does not propose a strategy to address environmental concernsas such, it does highlight technical, economic and policy issues that will require development of a nationalconsensus to complement the ongoing planning efforts.

What is "Environment"?

1.3 This paper views the environment in two ways. The first concerns the use and degradation ofnatural resources, which must be considered as a key element in human production systems. Severallinks between production and environment are likely to be important. The environment is not a sectorof economic activity like agriculture or industry, nor is it a form of infrastructure like urban sewersystems or roads. Rather, it is an input into most productive activity. At the same time, most productionsystems have impacts on the environment which threaten their own sustainability. Natural resourcemanagement considerations must therefore be integrated into economic planning rather than treated as anafterthought to efforts to increase income.

1.4 Urban pollution issues, the second dimension of environmental problems, show somewhatdifferent characteristics. Some pollution is an output of industrial activity, but there is very little industryin Chad. Most urban pollution results simply from the byproducts of living; human waste, trash, wastewater and so on. Another major cause of urban environmental problems is development which blocksthe operation of natural drainage systems, leading to the city's flooded and rutted roads. While we mightbe able to frame these problems in terms of production systems, it would miss their importantimplications for human health, which is important for its own sake, and only secondarily for its impacton production. These issues can be addressed head-on in projects directly targeted at environmentalimprovement rather than at ensuring the sustainability of income-generating activity.

I These are discussed in section 3.2 of this document.

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Criteria for Ranking Environmental Problems

1.5 This framework suggests several criteria for determining the importance of differentenvironmental problems. First, we can rate environmental considerations according to their importanceas an input into economic activity. Thus the relative importance of agriculture, fisheries, and forestproducts in the economy, combined with the severity of the environmental threat to each sector, mightsuggest in which sector environmental hazards should receive the most immediate attention. Second, thenumber of people affected by an environmental threat will be a determinant of the importance of promptaction. This is, of course, related to the first criterion, although it is not quite the same. It may lead usto conclude, for example, that the problems created by depletion of fuelwood around densely populatedurban areas are more urgent than the consequences of tree- or brush-cutting in sparsely settled dune areas,or that urban pollution in N'Djamena is more urgent than in Sarh or Abeche. Third, our ability to dealwith environmental problems should be a factor in allocating resources; thus efforts might better go intopreventing pesticide pollution of rivers, lakes, and ground water, which should be feasible through betterpest management techniques, rather than trying to address the decreased levels of Lake Chad, which noone knows how to combat or even how to explain. All of these criteria may be thought of as specialcases of a standard cost-benefit framework for allocating environmental protection resources. However,the more specific criteria can provide useful rules of thumb, since cost benefit analysis of environmentalprotection is difficult and subject at best.

1.6 A fourth possible criterion concerns protection of endangered species, unique ecosystems, orirreplaceable habitat resources like the wintering grounds for European birds provided by Lake Chad.Since the benefits of these resources accrue largely to animals rather than humans, their protection is hardto justify in cost-benefit terms. To the extent that humans do benefit, they are more likely to beWesterners pleased that African wildlife thrives, than Chadians prevented from eating that wildlife orcultivating its habitat. Consequently, much of the pressure to protect such resources is internationalrather than national, and the domestic benefits could come more from public relations than from increasedwelfare or economic health. Although this does not rule out such problems from consideration, especiallyif the costs of protection can be borne by the beneficiaries, it should be borne in mind in assigningimportance to different environmental problems.

T-he Chadian Context

1.7 Data on the physical condition of the Chadian environment are rare.2 The poverty of the countryand instability of the government have limited the resources devoted to routine data collection on theenvironment. Economic data which show how the environment is used and the pressures likely to beplaced on it in the future are similarly weak. In contrast, the Government of Chad carried out its firstcensus of population in April 1993, which has already produced some provisional data and promises tobe a source of a great deal of interesting information in the future. This section describes various aspectsof the Chadian context, based on the limited information available.

Economy

Chad is one of the poorest countries in the world, with per capita income estimated at $US 260in 1991. Although economic data on Chad are thin and unreliable, we do know that the economy isbased on the primary sector, which accounts for 35 to 40% of GDP and provides an income to more than80% of the population (see table below). Livestock and cotton provide just over 50% of the country's

2 Appendix A provides a summary of the major sources of data useful for enviromnental management.

export earnings, down from 77% in 1983, and are the major source of cash income in rural areas(CTA/RD vol. 1 p. iv). The country's national income accounts data do

Table 1: Evolution and structure of GDP (in $US 106 1990)

l 1983 1990 1993 2000

Primary sector 360.7 396.4 482.1 614.3Agriculture 182.1 210.7 282.1 364.3Cotton 35.7 42.9 46.4 67.9Livestock 142.9 142.9 153.6 185.7

Secondary sector 139.3 239.3 242.9 325.0Share of cotton 28.6 32.1 35.7 50.0

Tertiary sector 278.6 453.6 478.6 592.9

GDP at factor prices 778.6 1,089.3 1,203.6 1,532.1

Indirect taxes 17.9 67.9 82.1 132.1GDP at market prices 796.4 1,157.1 1,285.7 1,664.3Real growth rate 15.7% 0.2% 4.8% 3.4%GDP per capita in $US 203.6 253.6 260.7 278.6

Source: CTAJDR Vol 1 p iv. Data in CFA were converted to $US at $1 =FCFA 280.

not permit disaggregation of forestry, fisheries, or other resource-based activity presumably accountedfor within primary sector income, so it would be difficult to assess the importance of each of theseactivities relative to the others in either income or employment. This is unfortunate, since, as discussedabove, this would provide a useful criterion for assessing the importance of environmental degradationaffecting the different activities. The data which are available show primary sector activity almost stablethrough the 1980s, with some increase in 1993. This may be attributable to the drought of the 1980s andsubsequent good rainfall of the early 1990s. The decrease in the share of cotton as a source of foreignexchange in the 1980s may be explained by the 50% drop in world prices in 1984-86.

Political situation

1.8 Chad's political situation is a key factor in all attempts to work in the country. Chad experienceda civil war between 1979 and 1982, and recurring outbreaks of violence until 1992. Since 1993 ademocratic transition process has been ongoing, and there is hope that regular elections will be held bylate 1994 or early 1995. However, one result of the civil disturbances has been a very weak institutionaland administrative capacity in the public sector. This has had far-reaching implications for the abilityof the administration to undertake development work, much less protect the environment.Because of this situation, many donor agencies are choosing to minimize their reliance on civil servantsin the implementation of their programs.

Demography

1.9 The completion of Chad's first population census in April 1993 offers some hope of soon havinga much clearer picture of demographic issues than has ever been available before. The provisionalreport, issued in July 1993 (Bureau Central du Recensement, 1993), puts total population at 6,288,261,

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of whom 1,327,570 were urban dwellers, 4,601,622 were sedentary rural dwellers, and 359,069 werenomads. This is considerably higher than the estimates available prior to the census; the World Bank(June, 1992) put total population at 5.4 million. Table 2 below gives a breakdown of population andpopulation density by prefecture, as provided in the provisional census report. The report primarilyprovides data on the urban, sedentary, and nomadic population of each sub-prefecture. Further dataseries will cover age group breakdowns, birth rates and fertility, mortality, migration patterns, education,economic activity, household structure, and housing.

Table 2: Population and Population Density by Prefecture

Prefecture Area in Population Population Populationin km2.(a) 1968 (a) 1993 (b) Density

Batha 88,800 260,000 288,074 3.24BET 600,350 72,000 70,603 0.12Biltine 46,850 114,028 187,115 3.99Chari Baguirmi except N'Djamena 82,910 347,752 722,606 8.72

N'Djamena 126,483 529,555Gu6ra 58,950 133,332 306,653 5.20Kanem 114,520 162,777 280,804 2.45Lac 22,320 92,801 248,226 11.12Logone Occidental 8,695 193,623 455,140 52.35Logone Oriental 28,035 250,233 440,342 15.71Mayo Kebbi 30,105 448,645 820,249 27.25Moyen-Cbari 45,180 333,117 744,741 16.48Ouaddai 76,240 310,000 549,932 7.21Salamat 63,000 100,000 185,981 2.95Tandjil6 18,045 247,820 458,240 25.39

TOTAL 1,284,000 3,192,611 6,288,261

(a) Area and population estimates from CTA/DR, June 1993.(b) From Bureau Central du Recensement (1993), Tables i and 1.

Bioclimatic zones and associated production systems

1.10 Chad is conventionally divided into several broad bioclimatic zones, based on weather, dominanttree or shrub species, vegetative associations, and soil characteristics. These zones tend to exhibit distinctagro-silvo-pastoral production systems. Their spatial delimitation is not precise, because no clear physicallandmarks separate one zone from another. Moreover, climatic change and human interventions haveled to changes in Chad's vegetation patterns, so the extensive work on vegetation classificationsundertaken in the 1960s (see Pias, 1970) is only partially valid now. There is no routine monitoring ofnatural vegetation, so it is not possible accurately to describe trends in vegetative cover which would beimportant indicators of environmental risks.3 Despite these caveats, the existing information doesprovide a useful way to frame a discussion of Chadian environment and production systems. Theclassification described here is based on Kindler (1989) and Keith and Plowes (1993).

1.11 The northern half of the country is the Saharan and Saharo-Sahelian zones, which include all areaswith less than 400 mm of rainfall per year. This comprises the prefectures of Borkou, Ennedi, and

3 For more detailed descriptive information about the natural vegetation of Chad, see Pias (1970) and Louis Berger(1988 and 1989).

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Tibesti (the B.E.T.), and northern parts of Kanem, Batha, and Biltine. The area under 50 mm of rainfallper year is desert, with unstable, unproductive soils. The area from 50 to 200 mm of rainfall is sub-desert steppe, with rainfall occurring in July and August. The Saharo-Sahelian zone, with rainfall up to400 mm, is characterized by sand dunes, sandy plains, and large depressions. The sparse humanpopulation of this region depends on oasis and wadi cultivation and herding of small ruminants, cattle,and camels. About 90% of the agricultural systems involve date production relying on shallow groundwater sources. This offers low yields and poses a risk of salinization. The other 10% is organized ina complex system in which dates are cultivated in the oases, with irrigated vegetables and other cropsplanted beneath the trees. This offers higher yields, and can satisfy most food needs.

1.12 The Sahelian zone receives up to 600 mm of rainfall per year. This zone, which includesN'Djamena, has a four-month rainy season from June to September. Natural vegetation is thorny opensavannah, including the acacias which are a source of potentially commercializable gum arabic.Agriculture is characterized by extensive rainfed cultivation of millet, sorghum, cowpeas, and peanuts,and irrigated vegetable gardens in the wadis. Onions and tomatoes are important cash crops, sold as faraway as Cameroon and Nigeria. While total rainfall is sufficient to produce adequate harvests, its spatialand temporal variability poses significant risks. Farmers reduce the risk of localized drought bycultivating fields spread out as far as five or more kilometers from their homes. To protect themselvesagainst low rainfall or great temporal variability, they cultivate only soils with high infiltration rateswhich will absorb the rain which does fall. Transhumant herding is also of great importance in this zone,with herds moved towards more humid zones in the south during the dry season and back to the Sahelianzone in the rainy season. Consequently, fluctuations in rainfall in the Sahelian zone have significantimpacts on areas further south, as herders change their migratory patterns in search of pastoral resources.

1.13 The Sudanian zone receives from 600 to 1200 mm of rainfall. (A more detailed classificationconsiders the areas from 600 to 800 mm to be Sahelo-Sudanian, from 800 to 1000 to be Guineo-Sudanian, and from 1000 to 1200 to be Sudano-Guinean; see Keith and Plowes (1993)). Vegetation inthe northern part of this region, where the rainy season lasts from four to six months, is characterizedby mixed dense savannah. The southernmost part of the zone is woodland savannah and deciduous openforest. This part of the country is primarily agricultural and agro-pastoralist. Important rainfed cropsinclude maize, cotton, cowpeas, millet, sorghum, sesame, and taro. Cotton is the major cash crop, withCotonTchad, the government cotton marketing organization, providing chemical inputs and purchasingthe output. Riparian floodplains are important for agriculture in this region, and also serve as nurserysites for fish and a food source for water birds. Irrigated perimeters along the Logone and Chari Riversare also important in the cultivation of rice and other crops. The Sudanian zone is the most denselypopulated region of the country, particularly around the city of Moundou.

1.14 The Guinean zone occupies only the southernmost tip of the country, receiving more than 1200mm of rainfall which may fall during 8 months of the year. Its vegetation is characterized by deciduousdense forest. Because this region is so small--some suggest that there no longer is any Guinean zone inChad--it is relatively unimportant in terms of population or production.

Water resources

1.15 Rainfall in Chad ranges from less than 50 mm per year in the Sahara to as high as 1300 mm inthe Guinean zone in the south-west corner of the country. There is a single rainy season centered in thesummer, which is as short as two months in the north or as long as eight in the south. Variability ofrainfall is very great, especially in northern areas of low precipitation.

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1.16 Meteorological data are among the best routinely collected time series data, due to support fromthe AGRHYMET project which in the 1970s expanded and strengthened the network of weather stationsbegun under colonial rule. These data show that there has been a clear decline in average annual rainfallthroughout the country over the past thirty years. For example, median average rainfall in N'Djamenawas over 600 mm between 1950 and 1967, but under 450mm between 1968 and 1985. The 100 mmisohyet averaged about 200 km. north of Lake Chad between 1950 and 1967, but fewer than 50 km fromthe lake after 1968.' Both the variability of the rainfall and the drop over the past thirty years have beengreater in northern parts of the country than in the south. The increased variability, in particular, hasprofound implications for production strategies and for natural resource degradation. Whether thesechanges are evidence of long-term climate change or of medium-term fluctuations which may be expectedto reverse themselves soon is unknown. Either way, however, declines in rainfall have hurt agriculturalproductivity and forced rural dwellers to change their production systems in order to maintain theirincomes.

1.17 Chad is part of the Lake Chad basin, a large area which includes parts of Niger, Nigeria,Cameroon, Central African Republic, and the Sudan. The lake is the northernmost surface waterresource in the country; further north, low rainfall, high rates of evaporation, and high soil infiltrationrates keep permanent surface water from accumulating. Two major Chadian rivers flow into the lake,the Logone and the Chari. The waters of the Chari arise in Central African Republic and southeasternChad. The upper catchment of the Logone is in Central African Republic and Cameroon. The Logonejoins the Chari just downstream from N'Djamena. The Batha River, which flows into Lake Fitri, is theonly other permanent river in the country.

1.18 Chad has a network of 58 hydrological monitoring stations which track flow and water levels onthe country's major rivers. These show a wide variation in flows. At the N'Djamena station on theChari, the low (1984/5) was 213 m3 per second, the median (1942/43) 1030, and the high (1955/56)1720. The flow of the river shows a steady decline from the 1950s to the 1980s. Kindler (1989) tracksthe standard deviation of average flow at N'Djamena relative to the 40-year mean. They find that allreadings but one were 0.5 to 2.0 standard deviations above the mean prior to 1972, whereas all readingsbut one were 1 to 2 standard deviations below it after that year.5 The variation in level and flow of therivers is determined primarily by rainfall; thus these observed decreases are consistent with rainfalltrends.

1.19 Lake Chad is the country's most important surface water resource. As recently as 50,000 yearsago, it covered almost all of the present country of Chad, with water at a depth of 400 meters and asurface area of 800,000 km2. 6,000 years ago it still covered 300,000 km2, and was 20 meters deepwhere N'Djamena is now sited. Thus the decline of the lake has been a long-term phenomenon. In morerecent history, it has ranged from a high of 26,000 km2 in 1962 to a low of 1,653 km2 in 1985. Itsmaximum depth is only a few meters; the extremely flat topography of the region means that a slightincrease in depth is associated with a very large increase in surface area.6 The overall decline of the lakeis clearly due to very long-term evolution of the environment rather than human intervention. Recently,however, this decline combined with drought has had severe implications for production systems whichdepend on the lake, particular agricultural and fishing activity in the Kanem and north of N'Djamena.The 1973 drought caused the lake to divide into two pools separated by a ridge. When divided, the level

4 Kindler (1989), p. 20.

5 Kindler (1989), pp. 55-59.

6 Keith and Plowes, 1993, pp. 13-14.

of the north pool dropped quickly, as the rivers flow into the southern pool. A thick wall of vegetationgrew on the ridge, further hindering the flow of water between the two pools. With increased rainfallin the mid-1980s, the two pools merged again; however this could occur again if rainfall dropped.

1.20 The groundwater resources of Chad are not fully understood.' The country's principal aquifersare in a layer known as the Chad Formation, which is divided into three zones known as the Quaternarydeposits, Lower Pliocene, and Continental Terminal. The Quarternary deposits range in thickness from30 to 100 meters, and contain the phreatic aquifer recharged primarily through infiltration from streamsand rivers. The top of Lower Pliocene varies from a depth of 150 to 400 meters, and its total area isunknown. Sketchy data suggest that the volume of natural recharge of these two aquifers is relativelylimited in comparison with surface runoff, although the total usable volume is expected to meet demandwithout problem for the foreseeable future.' The Continental Terminal, at a depth between 450 and 620meters, covers parts of Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad. The lack of data makes it difficult toassess whether human use poses a risk of lowering the water table; however there is concern aboutreserving groundwater in average rainfall years to ensure that it will be available in case of drought.

1.21 The quality of the ground water is apparently not a problem in rural areas, but it is a seriousconcern in N'Djam6na. The city gets its water from twelve wells which tap into the Quarternary deposit.A semi-permeable layer of sandy clay some 20 meters thick separates the phreatic aquifer from theQuarternary. The city does not have any sewage or trash collection, so all wastes are left on the surfaceor in latrines. Polluted runoff can therefore filter into the phreatic aquifer. Not enough is known aboutthe permeability of the clay separating the two aquifers to assess this problem definitively, but there isa significant possibility that the city's drinking water supply could be polluted by its own wastes, if notnow then in the future.

1.22 No data are currently collected on the quality of surface water, so there is no way to assesswhether urban or agricultural pollution is affecting the rivers or Lake Chad. The Office Nationald'Hydraulique Pastorale Villageoise (ONHPV), which is responsible for village wells, analyses well waterquality upon request, but it does not monitor regularly to detect changes in ground water quality.

Biodiversity and wildlife

1.23 Chad's wilderness, lakes, and wetlands once provided habitat for a rich array of indigenous andmigratory mammals and birds. In recent years these resources have been depleted by populationpressure, drought, poaching, and the inability of the government to implement and enforce an effectiveconservation strategy. As everywhere, quantitative data on the extent of these resources or their declinedo not exist, so our discussion must be based on visual observations by researchers and governmentofficials.

1.24 Lake Chad is one of the country's key resources for protecting birds and aquatic life. It supportsa population of about 130 species of fish, feeding on its rich supply of phytoplankton and zooplankton.In the past the lake also supported hippopotami, two species of otter, crocodiles, and other largemammals and reptiles. These species are assumed to be endangered, but there is no firm evidence about

7 Information on groundwater comes from Kindler (1989), pp. 27-31; their assessment is based on BRGM, 1987,Actualisation des connaissances sur Ics ressources en eau souterraine de la Republique du Tchad. 87 TCD 246Eau. (Orleans, France: Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres)

For the latter judgment, see IWACO (1990), p. 10.

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their current status. The lake's birds are perhaps its most important resource, and the one most at riskfrom the lake's drop. One study recorded 230 species of birds, of which 76 were palearctic migrants,on or around the lake in 1967. A 1984 aerial survey observed over 700,000 waterfowl, accounting forhalf the population of West Africa. A number of species listed internationally as endangered are knownto rest on Lake Chad. Many of these birds would not have alternate breeding or wintering grounds ifthe lake were further degraded or polluted.9 The decline in the lake level and size cannot be controlled;however there is also a serious risk of pollution with agrochemicals, organic matter, or sediments. Suchpollution would harm the plankton and submerged vegetation on which the lake's ecosystem depends,with possibly devastating effects on species higher in the food chain. Effective regulation of river andlake shore activities and the use of agricultural inputs should be considered to prevent this danger.

1.25 Lakes Ler6 and Trene, on the Mayo Kebbi River in the south western corner of the country, areof interest for several reasons. The swamps which drain into the Mayo-Kebbi and Logone Rivers exhibita unique reversible drainage pattern, which means that their waters can flow into either the Chad basinor the Niger River. Consequently, these two lakes show a mix of Niger River and Chad basin fishspecies, constituting a totally unique ecosystem. Lake Lere also sustains a population of fresh-watermanatees unknown elsewhere in Africa. This population is estimated at 100 to 150, but they are rarelyseen, so little is known for sure about their numbers. Decreases in the water quality of the lake wouldharm their habitat and place their survival in greater question than it already is.

1.26 Several other lakes also provide important habitat for birds and fish. Lake Fitri, in the south ofBatha prefecture, has ranged in area in recent years from nothing at all to 1300 krm2. It dried completelyafter the 1973 and 1984 droughts. One interesting feature of Lake Fitri is a population of white pelicanswhich use it as fishing grounds. They nest atop a 300 meter granite peak easily visible from the Bitkine-Bokoro road, flying some 120 km to the lake to feed.'° The lake is relatively inaccessible by land,being surrounded by extensive clay soils that flood during the rainy season and remain muddy in the dryseason; this could protect it against some human-caused degradation. It has been designated as abiosphere reserve, and a development and conservation plan was proposed to the government; howeverbecause of the current situation in Chad, the plan's funders retracted their offer of support. Lake Iro inthe Salamat is protected by the poor road network in the prefecture, and is one of the country's mostpristine lakes. For this reason, it too has been suggested as a biosphere reserve. A few lakes in theB.E.T. could be of interest in terms of biodiversity. Situated some 220 km. northeast of Faya Largeau,they are fed by underground aquifers. Since they are inaccessible by road or air, they are unlikely to bethreatened by human activity, nor is much known about them.

1.27 Chad's most important terrestrial reserve is Zakouma National Park in the Salamat, establishedin 1963. Because of its isolated location and sparse human population, both the vegetation and thewildlife of this park have been somewhat less affected by the degradation which have occurred elsewherein the country. The park is composed of grassy floodplains interspersed with Sahelian savannah. It isreported to contain some 1500 elephants, as well as buffalo, giraffes, waterbucks, topis, lions, leopards,and other large mammals." It is surrounded by a large faunal reserve, the Bahr Salamat, which servesas a buffer zone for the park.

9 Keith and Plowes, pp. 14, 17, 25.

10 Keith and Plowes, p. 16, visual observation by the author.

Keith and Plowes 1993, p. E30.

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1.28 Manda National Park, near Sarh on the road to Guelengdeng, was established in 1965 to protectthe giant eland. Despite its location on the road a short drive from an important city, a visit in winter1993 showed the park relatively little encroached on by neighboring populations. Some cattle weregrazing within park boundaries, but forests had not been cleared for cultivation. Although all of the largemammals and ostrich are gone, presumably to poaching during the recent wars, enough of their habitatremains that the park could be a good candidate for rehabilitation.

1.29 Chad's faunal reserves used to provide habitat for a number of other mammal species which arenow seriously endangered in that country, if not globally. A recent list of endangered species lists theblack rhinoceros, the addax, the scimitar-horned oryx, and the giant eland, all of which are consideredlikely to be extinct in Chad. Species of which a few survivors may remain include the dama gazelle, theslender-horned gazelle, the sitatunga, the cheetah, the leopard, the wild dog, the manatee, the barbarysheep, and the wild ass. Five species of bustards are also endangered, in part because they are widelyhunted and breed slowly. Some other large animals still may be found in Chad, but they are rare orthreatened; these include elephants, hippopotami, giraffes, lions, ostriches, crocodiles, desert tortoises,and so on. In addition to these, the wadis and lakes of the B.E.T. are reported to sustain 16 endemicspecies of fish which may only exist in these relic bodies of water. Drought, rather than human pressure,may be the major threat to these species."2

Carryinz capacity of the environment

1.30 Increased population combines with decreased rainfall to place pressure on the carrying capacityof the natural resource base. Although carrying capacity studies of Chad in particular do not exist, theestimates in a World Bank study of desertification in the Sahel (World Bank, 1985) can suggest themagnitude of the problem in Chad. The study estimates the density of population which could besupported from crops and livestock managed with traditional production systems in each climatologicalzone of the Sahel. In each zone some land is best suited to cultivation and other land to grazing, so thesetwo figures can be added together to arrive at a total sustainable population density. The study alsoestimates the density of population which could sustainably meet its own fuelwood need from availableforest resources, a second indicator of carrying capacity. These two numbers are then compared withactual population densities. Combining these data with the new Chad population data gives the veryapproximate results shown in the table below.'3

12 The list of endangered species from which this information was obtained was prepared by Darrel Plowes in 1993,

based on his extensive ongoing work on the natural resources of Chad, Sudan, and other countries in the region.It is annexed to Keith and Plowes, 1993.

13 'Very approximate' because the assignment of political jurisdictions to bioclimatic zones, necessary to calculatepopulation densities, is imprecise at best. Based on the map of administrative boundaries in the provisionalcensus document and the map of bioclimatic zones in Kindler (1989), p. 13, the author has classified prefecturesinto zones as follows:

Sahelian and Sahelo-Saharan B.E.T.Sahelian Batha, Biltine, Kanem, LacSahelo-Sudanian Chari-Baguirmi, North Guera, OuaddaiSudano-Sahelian and Sudanian South Guera, North Mayo-Kebbi, North SalamatSudano-Guinean and Guinean Logone Occidental, Logone Oriental, South Mayo-Kebbi, Moyen

Chari, South Salamat, Tandjile

For prefectures divided across two bioclimatic zones (Guera, Mayo-Kebbi, Salamat), half of the population and(continued...)

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Table 3: Sustainable and Actual Population Densities

SUSTAINABLE POPULATION DENSITY (per km) ACTUAL POP. DENSITY

ZONE: Crops Livestock Sum Fuelwood Rural Total

Saharan and 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.09 0.12Sahelo-Saharan

Sahelian 5.0 2.0 7.0 1.0 3.34 3.69

Sahelo-Sudanian 10.0 5.0 15.0 1> 6.67 aV

Sudano-Sahelian & 15.0 7.0 22.0 20.0 7.53 8.63Sudanian

Sudano-Guinean 25.0 10.0 35.0 20.0 14.80 17.76and Guinean

1.31 This table suggests that at present population density is below the average carrying capacity ofeach bioclimatic zone for food production, but that fuelwood supply has already become a problem in theSahelo-Sudanian zone and north of it. However, a number of caveats must be borne in mind. On the'demand" side, the population figures do not tell us anything about how many people do not, in fact,depend on agriculture or livestock for their livelihood or food supply. Consequently, these resultsexaggerate the number of people being supported by the available food supply. This is consistent withthe general impression that the pressure on the Chadian resource base is not as bad as elsewhere in theSahel. By contrast, the desertification study shows that in West Africa as a whole, population densityexceeds food supply in the Sahelian zone and fuelwood demand exceeds supply for both the Sahelian andthe Sudanian zones.

1.32 Even taking into account population growth, it will be 22 years before any region exceeds itstheoretical ability to produce food. The initial 1993 census publication does not estimate the populationgrowth rates, but earlier estimates put it at about 2.6% per year.'4 If average population density growsat the same rate as population, the only imminent problem will be in meeting fuelwood needs in theSudano-Guinean and Guinean zone, where carrying capacity will be reached in 5 years. The Sahelo-Sudanian zone will reach food production capacity in 22 years, the Sahelian in 25, the Sudano-Guineanin 27, and the others in more than 30 years. This suggests that theoretical carrying capacity for foodproduction is not a serious problem in Chad, though energy supply is.

1.33 On the other hand, on the resource "supply" side, these results do not factor in recurrent droughtswhich substantially reduce carrying capacity. The variability of rainfall, and hence of agricultural yieldsand natural vegetation, means that worst case conditions may be more appropriate than average conditionsfor estimating carrying capacity of the resource base. The World Bank study does not indicate whetherits estimates are based on average or worst case conditions; assuming they are based on averages, theymay significantly overestimate carrying capacities.

...continued)half the area was assigned to each zone for the purposes of these calculations. This probably inflates thepopulation density of the northern zone and deflates the density of the southern zone.

14 World Development Report, 1993, p. 288.

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Table 4: Population Density by Prefecture

PREFECTURE Rural Pop. Overall Pop.Density Density

Batha 2.84 3.24

BET 0.09 0.12

Biltine 3.66 3.99

Chari Baguirmi 7.81 8.72

Guera 4.46 5.20

Kanem 2.18 2.45

Lac 10.59 11.12

Logone Occidental 38.64 52.35

Logone Oriental 14.08 15.71

Mayo Kebbi 24.12 27.25

Moyen-Chari 13.17 16.48

Ouaddai 6.28 7.21

Salamat 2.49 2.95

Tandjile 22.22 25.39

1.34 These results may also mask more localized demand for natural resources. Table 4 shows ruraland total population densities by prefecture, from the 1993 census. In certain prefectures, populationdensities are well above estimated carrying capacities. For fuelwood, the overall population density (ruraland urban) is the relevant indicator, since the fuelwood of a given region must support both the urbanand the rural population. By this indicator, Tandjile, Mayo-Kebbi, and Logone Occidental, all in theSudano-Guinean zone, are exceeding their capacity, the last prefecture by a huge amount. Perhaps lesssurprisingly, all of the prefectures of the Sahelian zone (Kanem, Lac, Batha, and Biltine) are exceedingtheir sustainable fuelwood supply. In terms of food supply, it is less clear whether rural or overallpopulation density is the appropriate indicator. This depends on the extent to which urban populationsdepend on food from their immediate hinterlands rather than on imported food. In large cities and nearthe borders, imports probably play a larger role than in small cities. Even using the rural populationindicator, however, Logone Occidental has exceeded its ability to feed its population sustainably,suggesting that this may be the area for greatest concern about resource degradation. The sparselypopulated Salamat is in the same ecological zone, but is far below its carrying capacity, which accountsfor the zone as a whole not showing a deficit.

1.35 These indicators are obviously crude, and should only be taken as broadly indicative of theprobable location of the most serious resource degradation problems. They do suggest, however, apossible strategy for future environmental monitoring which could identify areas to which natural resourcemanagement efforts should be targeted.

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2. CAUSES OF ENVIRONMENTAL HARM

2.1 The environmental situation of any country evolves in a complex web of interrelated causes andeffects which link demographic growth, economic growth, political development, and exogenousenvironmental change. We can frame the issue in terms of several different questions. One approachfocuses on how the natural and physical environment is changing; water pollution, soil erosion, duneencroachment, species extinction, etc. Another focuses on ultimate causes of those changes, such aspopulation growth or decreased rainfall. A third is between the first two; it concentrates on sectors ofeconomic activity such as agriculture and forestry which are particularly resource-dependent and have thegreatest potential to harm the environment.

2.2 This chapter uses a combination of these approaches. It begins by discussing "ultimate" causesof environmental harm, those which are not both cause and effect. It then goes on to consider how thosefactors are played out in four sectors of economic activity; agriculture, herding, forestry, and fisheries.Finally, it considers the major urban environmental issues, which are not as closely linked to economicactivity.

Causes of Environmental Harm

2.3 Several distinct factors affect the state of the environment in Chad. First is population growth,which, as everywhere in the world, increases the pressure placed on land, forests, water supply, andfisheries to meet human needs for food, fuel, and shelter. This is clearly a human-generated problem,although it is not clear how much impact public policy could have on it, especially in a country facedwith management and administrative problems as bad as Chad's. In a country as resource-dependent asChad, the effects of population growth are more apparent than in more industrialized countries. On theother hand, in a resource-dependent country like Chad the meaning of sustainable development is alsomore apparent; as population growth increases pressure on the resources, they will not be able to providethe food, fuel, and shelter needed by those people. Production systems will have to change if people areto survive.

2.4 The population problem is clearly at the root, not only of Chad's environmental problems, butof most environmental concerns worldwide. Moreover, addressing population problems is essential bothto protect the environment and to address economic and social development concerns more broadly. TheBank is working on these issues through support for public health, nutrition, and family planning servicesat the central and regional levels. It is also giving much attention to the links between population andenvironment through the Nexus studies which have been underway for several years. However, strategiesto slow population growth are not explicitly addressed in this paper. While population problems underlyenvironmental degradation, the solutions to population problems involve institutions, specialists, andtechniques which are not directly connected with environmental protection. As the Nexus studies havemade clear, this set of problems must be approached from both ends - from the family planning side todeal with underlying causes, and from the environmental side to deal with the consequences. Thisstrategy paper deals only with the latter.

2.5 Overall population growth is associated with increased rural-urban migration. Although migrationdata from the 1993 have not yet been published, the population of N'Djamena grew twice as fast between1968 and 1993 as the country as a whole, and the ratio of men to women in the city's population is now

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almost 6 to 5.'5 Both of these indicators suggest that rural urban migration, primarily of men searchingwork, is an important force in Chad. This places a great strain on urban infrastructure and threatens theurban environment.

2.6 A second cause of environmental degradation in Chad is decreased rainfall. As the statistics citedabove show, average rainfall in Chad, as throughout the Sahel, has declined significantly in the past thirtyyears. Whether this indicates long-term climatic change, or can be entirely attributed to medium-termcycles, is not clear from available data. Although human activities such as deforestation might affectrainfall, by and large this change must be viewed as exogenous, and cannot be influenced by public policyor human action. Decreased rainfall leads to degradation of natural vegetation and reduces agriculturalyields. In addition, it forces some of the nomadic population southward in search of grazing land fortheir herds. Thus herders who used to move between the Saharan and Sahelian zones now travel furthersouth in the dry season, and some do not return to the north at all. This further increases pressure onthe resource base in areas of relatively high rainfall, as well as causing competition and direct conflictbetween the nomads and the sedentary populations of the south.

2.7 A third factor affecting Chad's environment is the political situation. This affects the environmentboth directly and indirectly. While direct impacts, such as poaching by soldiers, devastates wildlifepopulations, indirect impacts are probably even more detrimental to the environment. Because of the civildisturbances, the administration has become ineffectual. Civil servants have only been paid intermittentlyin the past few years, and no funds are available for public sector operating costs. Those directlyresponsible for protecting environmental resources - the wildlife and forest agents - must either consumethe resources they are charged with protecting or take bribes from others in order to make ends meet.They are not armed, moreover, and have no way to protect those resources against armed soldiers whoin periods of instability have had the run of the countryside. In this state of uncertainty, very fewChadians would argue that the environment is a top priority, especially environmental issues which donot have a direct bearing on the short-term welfare of the population.

Impacts of Resource-Based Economic Activity

2.8 While conventional wisdom holds that degradation of the natural resource base is less serious inChad than elsewhere in the Sahel, it is already posing some significant problems. These may be expectedto grow as population increases, especially if the trend to decreased rainfall continues. This sectionconsiders how these forces affect the environment through four major sectors of economic activity;agriculture, forestry, livestock, and fisheries."6

Agriculture

2.9 Decreased rainfall and demand for increased agricultural output can affect agricultural productionin several ways. Output can be increased (or maintained in the face of reduced rainfall) throughshortened fallow cycles, expansion onto previous uncultivated land, changed soil management or crop

15 Bureau Central du Recensement 1993, table 4

16 Given the absence of empirical data on Chad, published reports are generally based on short-term field work,visual observation, and discussions with farmers, herders, developmentworkers, and public officials. Importantsources contributing to this section are Kindler (1989), Berger (1988 & 1989), and Hecht et al (1993). Theinterviews conducted in the preparation of the last document, in which this author participated, also contributeto this section.

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rotation practices, or, where remaining rainfall permits, introduction of inputs such as fertilizers andpesticides. These in turn may affect the environment in several ways.

* Shortened fallow cycles cause soil depletion which over time will lead to decreased output. Theyalso will reduce natural vegetation which provides grazing resources, habitat for birds and otherwildlife, and a source of fuelwood. This will increase pressure on the remaining naturalvegetation.

* Expansion onto currently uncultivated lands will have similar effects, directly reducing naturalvegetation with consequences for wildlife, grazing, and fuelwood supply. It will also mean thatfarmers begin cropping land which is not well suited to agriculture, assuming that they alreadycultivate the best land and leave the rest to herds and birds. If so, the new cultivation is likelyto lead to greater erosion and soil depletion, as well as declining yields. Increased soil erosionwill increase sedimentation of rivers and lakes, inhibiting the growth of aquatic vegetation onwhich aquatic and bird species depend for habitat and food.

* Bush fires, set either to clear land for cultivation or to stimulate growth of young plants preferredby livestock, lead to destruction of natural vegetation, and can hasten soil erosion.

* Increased use of pesticides and fertilizers, while likely to increase agricultural output sharply insome areas, could lead to pollution of both ground and surface waters. The danger to groundwater would be greatest where pesticides are used near wells; the primary impacts would be onhuman health. The danger to surface water would be greatest in recessional agricultural systemsor irrigated perimeters, where chemical runoff could move very quickly into the rivers and lakes.

2.10 Interviews conducted in the winter of 1993 in the southern part of the country and around Abechesuggest that pressure to increase agricultural production is likely to be met by expanding cultivation ontocurrently uncultivated land or by shortening fallow cycles rather than by introducing agrochemical inputs.This is the case for several reasons. First, most farmers indicated that land was available to expandcultivation if they should want to; this is, in fact, their response to changes in production technology suchas the introduction of animal traction. Some farmers also reported that they used to leave land fallowfor longer periods than they do now. In the Sahelian zone it was possible to observe that most cultivationand fallow was on light, permeable soils, while small amounts of less productive clays were also beingcultivated where precipitation was higher or population pressure greater.

2.11 In contrast, virtually no one anticipated introducing agrochemicals as a way to improveagricultural output. In conditions of uncertain rainfall agrochemicals can decrease rather than increaseexpected yields. If rain is good, output will be plentiful, but if it is poor or erratic, the relativelyundiluted chemicals could destroy the plants altogether and the farmer will not even have the poor yields/he could have anticipated without the inputs. In much of the country, therefore, agrochemicals are arather risky investment which farmers are not likely to make.

2.12 Agrochemicals are cost-effective in agricultural systems which rely on more secure sources ofwater. This includes recessional agriculture"', which is widely practiced on the floodplains of theLogone and Chari Rivers, in the Salamat, and elsewhere in the country. Irrigated gardens and rice

17 Cultivation on flood plains as the water recedes.

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paddies found along the rivers of the Sudanian zone and in wadi beds in the Sahelian zone are alsocandidates for introduction of pesticides and fertilizers.

2.13 However, at present there is no private market or distribution system for agrochemicals in Chad.They are provided by CotonTchad as part of a fixed package of inputs for the production of cotton, butthese inputs cannot easily be used on other crops. Cotton is purchased from the village as a whole andthe profits redistributed among the farmers, so individual farmers face strong peer pressure to keep cottonyields as high as possible and not reallocate their chemicals to other crops. Some Nigerian pesticides aresmuggled into Chad and sold--with no labelling or instructions--in markets near the borders withCameroon and CAR. Some CotonTchad inputs are also diverted into the black market, presumably bycivil servants. However, most farmers said they would not know how to get agrochemicals other thanfrom CotonTchad. Moreover, farmers do not have the cash to buy inputs at the start of the growingseason. The CotonTchad input package includes credit, which is the only way the farmers can afford totake advantage of it. Some donor projects are providing inputs and credit with which to purchase them.Outside of these specialized areas, farmers do not have access to the cash necessary to purchase inputseven where they would be effective. This suggests that chemical pollution of ground or surface watermay not be a matter for great concern at present.

2.14 The lack of markets and access to credit for chemical fertilizers might suggest that farmers woulduse less expensive, more accessible organic fertilizers instead. However, this does not seem to be thecase, despite the presence of either their own animals or those of herder groups. Animal dung is not aseffective a fertilizer as chemicals, and gathering it and spreading it on the fields is very labor-intensive.Farmers did not seem to feel that the results were worth the work involved.

2.15 A significant exception to the availability of cultivable land for agricultural expansion is foundaround the city of Moundou in Logone Occidental. In that region, land availability is a clear constrainton production. This finding is borne out by the discussion of carrying capacity above, which shows thatby far the highest population densities in the country are in that prefecture. Compounding the problemare northern herders forced south by decreasing rainfall, who are bringing their herds through theMoundou region. Because they are not regular visitors to the area, they tend to have less concern fortheir hosts than herder groups have in the past, and make less effort to keep their animals from tramplingor eating the crops. (Farmers interviewed in villages outside of Moundou reported that the worstagricultural "pest" confronting them was herders!) Compounding the problems in this area is an apparentinfestation of tse-tse fly, which is forcing entire villages to relocate in order to protect their ownlivestock, reducing land available for agriculture or grazing. These combined pressures are likely to leadto severe overuse of the available resources, and soil depletion and erosion may be serious problems.Still, farmers do not expect to use chemical inputs to increase their output, because of the lack of marketsand cash. While organic fertilizers might be cost-effective in this environment, the conflictualrelationships with nomadic herders may hinder cooperative efforts.

2.16 The reports prepared for the Rural Development Round Table (CTA/DR, 1993) partiallycorroborate these findings. They indicate that agricultural production in the Sahelian zone has increasedthrough extensification, because the risks of intensified agriculture are too great. They observe lesscultivation of new land in the Sudanian zone, which they attribute to the greater potential of intensification

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(i.e. agrochemicals) in that part of the country. Unfortunately, they do not address the issue of accessto agrochemicals, so it is not clear how such intensification could actually be occurring. Possibly thegreater importance of recessional agriculture and the access to chemical inputs for cotton productionaccounts for the relative lack of expansion in the area cultivated in the Sudanian zone.

2.17 Overall, it would appear that the major threats to the environment through agriculture come fromexpanded cultivation and shortened fallows. Direct environmental harm is most likely to take the formof soil depletion and erosion, with indirect impacts on surface water and aquatic wildlife. Expandedagriculture will directly destroy vegetation, and indirectly harm mammals and birds which depended onthat vegetation for food and shelter. Environmental harm from agrochemical use is likely to be relativelyminor because of the unavailability of those products; however any project which encourages use ofagricultural inputs should, of course, consider the potential impacts seriously.

Forestry

2.18 The forest cover in Chad is estimated at some 31,170,000 hectares. Almost all of this isclassified as woodland or woodland savannah, and only an estimated 500 hectares along rivers andstreams as closed forest. Thus the term "forest" is used to include vegetation which might not receivethat label in other parts of the world; in the Sahel it can even be used to refer to individual treespreserved in fields to provide shade.

2.19 The country's forest resources are used to meet a number of different needs, some of which maybe compatible with each other while others clearly are not.

* The major use of forest resources throughout the country is fuel. According to the ESMAPstudy (ESMAP, 1993), wood and charcoal account for 80 to 90% of energy consumption in thecountry, and 95% of household energy consumption. In many cases, the use of forests for fueldestroys individual trees or whole forest areas, particularly when the resource is harvestedcommercially for sale in urban areas. In some rural areas fuelwood gathering can be limited todead wood, especially where population is sparse relative to resource availability so family needscan be met without cutting live branches or trees.

* Forest resources are an important source of forage for small ruminants and camels. Theruminants eat young plants and leaves close to the ground, while camels browse on larger plantsincluding thorny trees like acacias. When necessary, herders will cut or pull down branches tomake them more easily accessible to small animals. When the grazing pressure is low, suchpractices may be compatible with sustainable resource use; when there are too many animals,they will destroy the resource they depend on. This issue is discussed below in the section onherding.

* Some commercial products may be sustainably harvested from Chadian forests; these includekarite and gum arabic. These products have been harvested traditionally for centuries, butindustrial processing and export have been limited or non-existent. Recently they have receivedrenewed attention, because they may offer economically viable uses of the forest which, unlikeharvesting for fuelwood, are also biologically sustainable. Thus they can create an incentive forneighboring communities to protect rather than destroy the forests.

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* Forests are a source of a variety of non-marketed resources of use to rural populations, includingfruits, leaves used for making baskets and other tools, building materials, medicines, and so on.Because these products are not marketed, they are relatively hard to track or quantify. Evenmore difficult are intangible benefits of forests such as shade. By and large these non-marketedbenefits are sustainable; realizing them does not harm the tree or the forest in which it grows.

2.20 The destruction of forests has several different impacts on the environment. First, the vegetationitself is lost; this is the most obvious direct impact. Second, natural vegetation helps hold the soil inplace and reduce erosion due to wind or water. Soil erosion reduces agricultural potential and degradesthe water bodies into which the soil is deposited. This in turn degrades the habitat of aquatic wildlife,including both fish and birds. Third, destruction of natural vegetation reduces habitat available toterrestrial wildlife, including both mammals and birds.

2.21 The most destructive use of forest resources is clearly to meet household energy demand. Asalways, reliable statistics are not available. One source estimates annual consumption at 5.7 million cubicmeters of wood, of which 1 million are consumed in the three largest urban areas (CTA/LCD 1993, p.12). The ESMAP study estimates national consumption of wood in petroleum equivalent tons (PET),finding that about 590,000 PET are consumed annually in rural areas and about 185,000 in urban areas.The authors also estimate urban consumption of wood at 2.3 million tons per year, but do not give acomparable estimate for rural consumption. Using low-resolution satellite images and productivity datafrom the literature, this study calculates that the total sustainable production of fuelwood which can beharvested sustainably is over 14 million tons per year. (ESMAP, pp. 9-10) They give many caveatsabout the reliability of these estimates, however, and use them only to conclude that the country as awhole is unlikely to run out of fuelwood in the near future.

2.22 There is a consensus both in the literature and among those working in energy and forest sectorsthat the worst problems are experienced around urban areas, particularly N'Djamena, where forests areclear-cut and sold in urban markets in the form of either wood or charcoal. There are two elements tothis concern. One is that the supply of wood which can be accessed easily and inexpensively from thecity will be depleted, driving up the cost of household energy. The second concern is that, even if theinexpensive sources of supply have not dried up, the harvesting of fuelwood is causing soil erosion andhabitat destruction in the peri-urban area, with predictable impacts for soil productivity, wildlife, andwater quality. Visual observation of the area around N'Djamena, particularly the region north of the citywhere the road has recently been paved, suggests that these concerns are well-founded. Approaches tosolving this problem typically focus on changing the pricing, taxation, and tenure systems which affectforest use, in order to create an institutional framework which encourages sustainable use of the resourcebase rather than forest "mining".

2.23 Harvesting fuelwood, and particularly charcoal production, may involve destroying the forestresource entirely. In contrast, products such as karite and gum arabic tap into a market for forestresources where the tree must stay alive in order to remain productive. These products might beeconomically interesting enough to compete with destruction of trees to expand agriculture, although theyare not likely to be competitive with urban fuelwood markets. Karite, which grows in the Sudanian zone,is a nut processed to produce oil and karite butter. Most of its exploitation has been on a small scale,using artisanal techniques, although some projects have attempted to introduce industrial processing ofthis product. Gum arabic comes from the sap of the acacia tree, which grows primarily in the Sahelianzone. It is used as a stabilizer in foods, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, glues and inks, and a variety ofother products. It has been a major export of the Sudan for some time.

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2.24 In the past year new interest has been sparked in more systematic exploitation of Chad's acaciatrees. Sudan, which now holds about 80% of the world market for gum arabic, has recently raised itsprices to levels which have consumers interested in new sources of supply, and could make Chadianexports competitive. Two reports have been produced assessing the potential of this industry (Agala,1993 and Mallot, 1993), and a seminar on gum arabic was held in N'Djamena in October, 1993. Chadnow accounts for about 6.7% of world consumption of gum arabic, with exports of 4,687 tons in 1992-3.The species from which it is harvested, acacia senegalensis and acacia laeta, are most productive withfrom 300 to 400 mm per year of rainfall. Based on this, the gum arabic reports estimate that currentproduction levels representing 10% of the potential could be quadrupled if all suitable land were plantedwith acacias. The crop is grown on a 20-25 year rotation, with 4-5 years of agricultural activity (milletcultivation in Sudan) followed by 15-20 years of fallow in which the trees grow back naturally. Gumcan be harvested once the trees are 4 years old, and they remain productive for 11-15 years. When nolonger productive, the trees are cut down to 1.5 meters high and the ground is cultivated again.

2.25 The economic viability of this scheme rests on a number of factors in the Chadian environment;access to reliable transportation networks from rural areas to international ports, the security situationwhich hinders all transport of goods at present, improvement in the techniques currently used to tap thetrees, quality control on the processing, resolving the tree tenure issues which will arise as the value ofthe trees becomes apparent, and so on. This is clearly a tall order, but the potential seems to warrantthe further investigation it is likely to get from the donors which funded the initial studies.

Livestock

2.26 Livestock raising in Chad occurs in the context of a variety of different production systems.18

These systems are typically described in terms of whether the animals are mobile or sedentary, oraccording to the extent of economic dependence on livestock vs. cultivation. In terms of theenvironment, decreased rainfall and increased human and animal populations combine to place increasingpressure on the supply of pastoral resources. This occurs in several different ways:

- The use of cattle or donkeys for animal traction allows farmers to expand the areas which theymaintain under cultivation. Such agricultural expansion has impacts on soil erosion, waterquality, vegetation, grazing resources, and wildlife habitat, all of which have been discussedabove under agriculture.

* All livestock browse on natural vegetation and fallow lands. In small numbers, these animals willnot have a significant impact on the supply of available vegetation. In large numbers or at highlevels of concentration, however, natural vegetation can be consumed beyond sustainable levels,so it will not be able to reproduce. Like all other activities which harm natural vegetation, thiscan lead to soil erosion, water pollution, and destruction of wildlife habitat.

is This section relies primarily on Bonfiglioli 1993 and Deffendol 1993. The interdisciplinary approach to studying

the role of livestock in Chadian production systems taken by Bonfiglioli offers a useful example of how toapproach the relationship between rural production systems and the environment.

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* Some livestock owners burn natural vegetation from fields in order to stimulate the growth of theyoung grasses preferred by herds. This has the same impacts on soil quality and habitat as otherloss of vegetation, although it is destructive than more gradual consumption of existing plants.

* Transhumant herds can have a devastating impact in the small area around individual wells,where they deplete the available vegetation and can trample the ground making it too hard topermit new plants to take root.

2.27 The problems of pastoralists and agriculturalists are closely linked. In much of the country theycompete for the same land and vegetative resources, particularly during the dry season. Moreover, mostpeasants are not solely cultivators or livestock-breeders, but combine the two activities, along with others,in an income-producing strategy modified each year in response to environmental and economicconditions. It is difficult, therefore, to identify discrete, separable issues affecting livestock production,or through which livestock production affects the environment, without taking into consideration thecomplex interactions between pastoral production strategies, agricultural production strategies, andeverything between them. This kind of integrated approach is being considered in some projects,particularly the new activities being developed through the PNE and the World Bank's proposed naturalresources management project. This will require careful interdisciplinary and interministerial work inthe future if these issues are to be addressed effectively.

Fisheries

2.28 The Chadian fishery resource is regarded as being of considerable potential, though insufficientlyunderstood and possibly overused. Fishing is important on all of the major lakes and on the Logone andChari Rivers. No data are collected on yields now, although some were collected in the past. Yield isestimated at about 80,000 tons per year, down from about 200,000 tons in the 1960s; about one third isthought to come from Lake Chad."9 Other lakes, particularly Lake Iro, are thought to be underexploitedrelative to their potential, based on occasional visual observations of the fishing activity going on.

2.29 Various explanations are given for the decrease in yields since the 1960s. Reduced rainfall haslowered the levels of the rivers and lakes and drastically reduced the surface areas of the lakes, destroyingfish habitat. Some species breed in the flood plains, where both drought cultivation may be havingdeleterious effects on reproductive success. Any agricultural or urban activity which lead to organic orinorganic pollution of the rivers could have a significant impact on fish populations. However, thecountry's low level of industrialization and low level of agrochemical use suggest that this is not likelyto be a source of the problem, although in the absence of any water quality data we cannot be sure.

2.30 Decreased yields are frequently ascribed to overfishing. Most professional fishermen are reportedto be foreign, particularly Malian, and there is a tendency to blame them for the decreasing y