PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

29
PotashCorp.com Citi Basic Materials Conference December 2013 Wayne Brownlee Executive VP & CFO

Transcript of PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Page 1: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

PotashCorp.com

CitiBasic Materials Conference

December 2013

Wayne Brownlee

Executive VP & CFO

Page 2: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this presentation and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Slide#2

Page 3: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

PotashCorp Overview

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World’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity; #1 in potash, #3 in nitrogen and phosphate.

Global leader in potash; nutrient with highest margins and significant barriers to entry.

Canadian potash operations and strategic investments position us to benefit from growth markets.

Focused world-class nitrogen and phosphate businesses help provide earnings stability.

Page 4: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

• Strong cash flow• Cash flow from operating activities of $3.2B in 2012

• Nine-month cash flow from operating activities in 2013 of $2.6B

• Well positioned potash business• Low-cost supplier to key markets

• Potential to significantly grow sales volume and further reduce per-tonne operating costs

• By year end expect to be nearly 95 percent complete CDN $8.3B potash expansion program

• Significantly lower per-tonne expansion cost relative to many competitor projects

• Strong balance sheet affords good flexibility• Low leverage relative to historical levels (Net debt to EBITDA)

• Access to $3.5B liquidity (commercial paper/credit facility) at low borrowing rates

• Proven track record of returning capital to shareholders• Dividend increase of 950 percent since January 2011

• Executing share repurchase program (authorization to repurchase up to 5 percent of o/s)

PotashCorp Highlights

Slide#4

Page 5: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Potash – Near-term Outlook

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Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, IFA, PotashCorp

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

F20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60Shipments Consumption

Million Tonnes KCl

Estimated Consumption Exceeded Shipments in 2012 and 2013

World Potash Shipments and Consumption

Significant destocking at customer level (most pronounced

in second-half 2013)

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* Forecast per PotashCorp

Page 7: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Million Tonnes KCl

World Potash DemandExpect Second-half Deferral Will Lead to More Robust Demand in 2014

* Forecast per PotashCorp

55-58 MMT

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Page 8: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Thousand Tonnes KCl

Jan

Feb Mar Apr

May Ju

n Jul

Aug Sep OctNov Dec

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2 2013 5-year average

Million Tonnes KCl

Demand Has Strengthened in Fourth Quarter; Anticipated to Continue into 2014

North America Potash Shipments

Domestic Producer Shipments* Offshore Imports*

Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Jun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140 2013 5-year average

Source: IPNI, TFI, Blue Johnson, PotashCorp

* Shipments for Nov/Dec based on PotashCorp estimate. Imports for Oct-Dec based on Blue Johnson and PotashCorp estimates.

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Page 9: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Potash Shipments to Key Offshore MarketsDemand Has Been Relatively Strong in Markets Outside of India

Source: Fertecon, Industry publications, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes KCl

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014F**0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 Latin America China Other Asia*

3.4% CAGR

Million Tonnes KCl

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014F**

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7 India

* Excludes India.

**Forecast per PotashCorp; represents mid-point of range.

Slide#9

Page 10: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Fertilizer Market UpdatePotash – Enhancing Competitive Position

Page 11: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Million Tonnes (KCl)

Optimizing Potash Production Portfolio; Well Positioned to Meet Anticipated Demand

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

Source: PotashCorp

• Focus on production at lower cost facilities while simultaneously balancing our customers’ expected product needs • Fully utilize lower-cost operational capability at

Rocanville and Allan • Run Lanigan and Cory at reduced levels until

market conditions warrant higher rates• Cease production at Penobsquis while

accelerating development of lower-cost Picadilly mine; build inventory through first quarter of 2014 to help satisfy near-term customer needs

• Expansion spending nearly complete• Finalize construction (nearly 95 percent spent

by end of 2013) to support approximately 17 million tonnes; operational capability will be ramped up according to market conditions

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Constructed Capability* Inventory

* Reflects estimated achievable production level based on constructed capacity, assuming operations are fully staffed and ramped up.

** Reflects estimated achievable production level based on current staffing levels and operational readiness.

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Page 12: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

US$ Per Tonne

Cost Improvement Through Optimization of Production at Lower-Cost Facilities

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

Source: PotashCorp

2013ECash Cost*

2014ECash Cost

2016Cash Cost Target

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

* Based on October 24, 2013 guidance.

** As compared to 2013 levels (not adjusted for inflation); target assumes successful ramp-up of expansions at lower-cost facilities.

Annualized Improvement**:

~$15-$20 per tonne

Cash Cost of Production (Estimate) – Potash

Annualized Improvement**:

~$20-$30 per tonne

Slide#12

Page 13: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

POT (SK)

POT (NB)

Enhancing Our Competitive PositionPotashCorp’s Strong Competitive Position Expected to Improve

* Site cost includes all cash operating costs, estimated per-tonne sustaining capital expenditures, royalties and taxes. Darker shaded bars represent CRU estimated mine site production costs at actual production levels; lighter shaded bars represent PotashCorp’s estimate of competitors cost range based on company reported data.

** Competitive position dependent on end-market destination.

*** Post announcement includes impact of PotashCorp’s announced changes for 2014 (upper end of range) and 2016 target (lower end of range).

Source: CRU, Public Filings, PotashCorp

POT (SK)

POT (NB)

Potash Industry Site Cost Profile*(Pre-announcement)

Potash Industry Site Cost Profile*(Post-announcement)***

US$ Per Tonne (FOB Mine**) US$ Per Tonne (FOB Mine**)

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Page 14: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

Other***

FSU***

Other North America***

PotashCorp

0 5 10 15 20 25

2014 Operational Capability* 2016F Constructed Capability** Series4

Million Tonnes KCl

PotashCorp Retains Operational Flexibility; Greatest Volume Growth Potential

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

* Reflects estimated achievable production level based on current staffing levels and operational readiness.

** Reflects estimated achievable production level based on constructed capacity, assuming operations are fully staffed and ramped up.

*** PotashCorp’s estimate of production and constructed capability by region (based on publically available data).

PotashCorp’s 2014 operational capability* plus inventory position estimated to be over 10 million tonnes.

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Page 15: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

E

2014

F50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Global Potash Operating Rate*

Anticipate Global Potash Operating Rate in 2014 Will Approach 90 percent

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

* Based on percentage of operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level). 2014F based on mid-point of PotashCorp’s demand forecast range of 55-58 MMT.

Historical Average (20 year)

Estimated Rate Post-Announcement

Estimated Rate Pre-Announcement

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Page 16: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Phosphate

Page 17: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Source: PotashCorp

Q3-

09

Q4-

09

Q1-

10

Q2-

10

Q3-

10

Q4-

10

Q1-

11

Q2-

11

Q3-

11

Q4-

11

Q1-

12

Q2-

12

Q3-

12

Q4-

12

Q1-

13

Q2-

13

Q3-

13

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 Fertilizer Feed & Industrial

PotashCorp Average Realized Sales Price

Industrial and Feed Products Provide Flexibility and Enhance Stability in Phosphate

PotashCorp Phosphate Profile

US$/tonne

Slide#17

Gross Margin Contribution by Product Category

Fertilizer Feed & Industrial0

50

100

150

200

250

300 2012 YTD* 2013 YTD*

US$ - Millions

* Represents first nine months of respective year.

Page 18: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Production - Million Tonnes (P2O5)

Optimizing P2O5 Production Portfolio; Well Positioned to Meet Customer Needs

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

Source: PotashCorp

• Focus on improving efficiency and utilizing product mix flexibility to maximize gross margin• Close Suwannee River chemical plant – one of

two plants at White Springs

• Net reduction of P2O5 (after offset from higher operating rates at Aurora) is ~215,000 tonnes; no expected impact to customers given ability to flex production of end products

• Reduce workforce levels at Aurora to improve efficiency

2013E 2014E 2015E0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5 Aurora White Springs Geismar

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Page 19: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Optimizing Production Profile and Product Mix

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

Source: PotashCorp

US$ Per P205 Tonne

2015E*Gross Margin Improvement

0

5

10

15

20 Annualized Estimated Improvement:$10-$15 per tonne

Gross Margin Improvement (Estimate) – Phosphate

* As compared to 2013 levels (not adjusted for inflation)

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Page 20: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Nitrogen

Page 21: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Source: PotashCorp, Green Markets

Year-over-Year* Realized Price Change

Portfolio of Products Provides Less Exposure to More Volatile Urea Market

PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile

35%

19%

46%

Ammonia Urea Solutions/NA/AN

2013 YTD* Nitrogen Product Mix (Sales Volume)

Ammonia Solutions/NA/AN Urea

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%Percentage Change

* Represents first nine months of respective year.

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Page 22: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Source: PotashCorp

Ammonia Capacity*

New Ammonia Capacity Adds Margin Growth Potential

PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile

2012 2013F 20150.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5 Trinidad Augusta Lima Geismar

Million Tonnes

* All estimated capacity amounts as at beginning of year.

Highlights

• Geismar Expansion: New capacity brought on-stream in early 2013, expected to add approximately ~$100M of incremental gross margin in 2013

• Lima Expansion: $190 million expansion anticipated to add additional ammonia (+88K st/year) and urea capacity (+80K st/year) by late 2015. New capacity at Lima also anticipated to help grow higher-margin DEF sales potential and supply lower cost ammonia to Aurora

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Page 23: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Source: PotashCorp, Bloomberg

Q3-

10

Q3-

11

Q3-

12

Q3-

13

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 Trinidad Gas* US Gas

Gross Margin – US$ Millions**

US Facilities Benefitting From Low Gas Cost; Trinidad Relative Position Improving

Nitrogen Gross Margin by Country

Gas Cost – US$ Per MMBtu

2010 2011 2012 20130

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900 Trinidad US

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* Estimate based on Tampa ammonia priced divided by 100. Actual price based on specific contract, which may vary slightly.

** Represents first nine months of respective year.

Page 24: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Creating Shareholder Value

Page 25: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

US$ - Millions

Anticipate One-time Cash Charge in Fourth-Quarter 2013

Financial Impact: Workforce and Operational Changes

Source: PotashCorp

Potash Phosphate Nitrogen0

20

40

60

80

100

Estimated One-time Cash Charge*

* Charges expected to be recorded in fourth-quarter 2013; currently reviewing the carrying value of our affected assets and a write-down, if required, will be incorporated into our fourth quarter results

Total One-time Cost Estimate*:~$70M

Slide#25

Page 26: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Strong Cash Flow + Reduced Capital Spending = Greater Financial Flexibility

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000 Cash Provided by Operating ActivitiesCapital Spending

US$ Millions

Source: PotashCorp

* As we adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010; 2003 to 2009 information is presented on a previous Canadian Generally Accepted Accounting Principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, information for 2003 to 2009 may not be comparable to 2010, 2011 and 2012.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000US$ Millions

** Excluding capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance.

Annual Cash Provided by Operating Activities* PotashCorp Capital Spending**

Slide#26

Page 27: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

Utilizing Strong Cash Flow to Enhance Long-term Shareholder Returns

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

* Dividends declared each quarter** $0.10 per share dividend adjusted for 3 for 1 stock split; rounded to nearest cent.

Source: PotashCorp

5 PercentShare Repurchase

ProgramAnnounced July 24, 2013 (up to $2 billion through August 1, 2014)

POT AGU MOS CF IPI0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%4.5%

3.4%

2.1%1.8%

0.0%

Percent Yield

Slide#27

As at November 28, 2013.

Q4-10**

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

Q3-12

Q4-12

Q1-13

Q2-13

Q3-14

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.03

$0.35

Dividend* per Share – US$

950% Increase

Page 28: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

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Page 29: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Material Symposium - Dec. 4, 2013

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