PotashCorp - 2014 Q4 Earnings

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PotashCorp.com Q4 2014 Conference Call January 29, 2015

Transcript of PotashCorp - 2014 Q4 Earnings

PotashCorp.com

Q4 2014 Conference Call

January 29, 2015

Forward-looking Statements

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This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can

be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements

often contain words such as “should,” “could,” “expect,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimate,” “plan” and similar expressions.

These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions, including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth,

results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates. While PotashCorp considers these

factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking

statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements

may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in

the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates,

expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates; risks and uncertainties

related to operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve; changes in competitive

pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; fluctuations in supply

and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for

our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and

financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; unexpected geological or environmental conditions,

including water inflows; economic and political uncertainty around the world; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging

activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; imprecision in

reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may

undertake; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or

slowdowns; timing and impact of capital expenditures; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital

expenditures; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology

systems; risks related to reputational loss; and earnings and the decisions of taxing authorities which could affect our effective tax rates.

Additional risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from results expressed on this Site can be found in

PotashCorp’s most recent earnings release, in PotashCorp’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013 under the captions

"Forward-Looking Statements" and "Item 1A - Risk Factors" and in PotashCorp’s other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange

Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. The forward-looking statements contained in the documents and

information placed on this Site are made as of the date of the release of such document or the posting of such information on this Site, as

applicable. PotashCorp disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new

information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

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Performance

Fourth-Quarter 2014 Highlights

• Earnings of $0.49 per share1; above the $0.26 per share in 2013

• Record potash sales volumes of 2.5 million tonnes

• Cash flow prior to working capital changes2 of $0.8B; above the $0.6B in 2013

Source: PotashCorp

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• Earnings of $1.82 per share1; below $2.04 per share in 2013

• Record global potash shipments of over 61 million tonnes

• PotashCorp: Record North American sales volumes of 3.5 million tonnes

• Canpotex: Total shipments reach all-time high

• Gross margin of $2.6B; below the $2.8B in 2013

• Free cash flow of $1.5B; above the $1.3B in 2013

Full-Year 2014 Highlights

Source: PotashCorp

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Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Substantial Demand Growth Raises Global Shipments to an All-time High

Global Potash Demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

Million Tonnes KCl

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Improvement in All Three Nutrients; Significantly Stronger Potash Performance

Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison

$460

$746

+$217+$46

+$23

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q42013

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q42014

Gross Margin - US$ Millions

Potash Highlights:

• Record global demand resulted in higher sales

volumes and slightly stronger realized prices

• Costs declined on production efficiencies and

favorable foreign exchange

Nitrogen Highlights:

• Strong market fundamentals resulted in higher

realized prices

• Per-tonne costs increased due to downtime at Lima

and higher gas costs

Phosphate Highlights:

• Improved market fundamentals supported higher

realized prices

• Sales volumes declined due to closure of

Suwannee River

• Costs increased on lower production levels and

higher ammonia and sulfur costs

Source: PotashCorp

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Lower Potash Prices and Weaker Phosphate Earnings Offset Record Nitrogen Results

2014 Full-Year Gross Margin Comparison

$2,790$2,647

-$138 +$97 -$102

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2013 Potash Nitrogen Phosphate 2014

Gross Margin - US$ Millions

Potash Highlights:

• Record global demand supported higher sales

volumes (up 1.2 million tonnes)

• Decline in prices during the second half of 2013

weighed on realizations through the first nine months

• Cost reduction target achieved on operational

efficiencies; further savings from weaker CDN$

Nitrogen Highlights:

• Robust market fundamentals resulted in higher

realized prices

• Increased production translated into higher sales

volumes and lower per-tonne costs

Phosphate Highlights:

• Improved market conditions supported higher realized

prices

• Production challenges and Suwannee River closure

resulted in lower sales volumes and higher costs

Source: PotashCorp

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Strategy and Outlook

Strategic Highlights

Source: PotashCorp

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Potash

Nitrogen

Phosphate

• Assessing equity investments and other opportunities

• Increased dividend by ~9 percent in January 2015

• Board and management to review capital allocation strategy

Investments

& Capital

Allocation

Strategy

• Focused on improving reliability

• Margin improvement opportunities identified and being implemented

• Focused on improving reliability

• Phase one of Lima expansion completed; working towards full start up in late 2015

• Increased operational capability to 10.9mmt; Picadilly capacity in early ramp-up

• First milestone in multi-year cost reduction target achieved, further decrease expected in 2016

Source: PotashCorp

Anticipate Modest Decline in Shipments

2015 Global Potash Demand Considerations

Slide#11* Per PotashCorp’s estimate

Market 2015F*(MMT)

Key Considerations

China 12.5 - 13.0 • Encouraging consumption trends, especially for higher-potassium content compound fertilizers

India 4.5 - 4.8 • Encouraging consumption trends, especially for higher-potassium content compound fertilizers

Other Asia 8.3 - 8.7• Many oil palm trees in prime productivity stage requiring heavy potash applications

• Higher inventory levels could slow imports early; expected to strengthen as year progresses

Latin

America10.8 - 11.3

• Supportive crop economics expected to keep demand at elevated levels

• Limited acreage expansion could slow page of growth from previous record highs

North

America9.5 - 10.0

• Significant need to replenish nutrients following record harvest

• Could see reduction in some marginal acreage

Other 12.5 - 13.0

TOTAL 58 - 60 MMT

2015 Guidance*

Full Year

• Earnings per share: $1.90-$2.20

• Potash gross margin: $1.5-$1.8B

• Potash sales volumes: 9.2-9.7 million tonnes

• Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin: $1.1-$1.3B

Source: PotashCorp

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2015 Guidance*

Full Year

• Capital expenditures**: ~$1.2B

• Annual effective tax rate: 26-28 percent

• Provincial mining and other taxes: 15-17 percent of total potash gross margin

• Income from offshore investments***: $195-$205M

• Selling and administrative expenses: $235-$245M

• Finance costs: $200-$210M

• FX Assumption: $1.24 CDN$ / US$

• EPS sensitivity to FX: US$ strengthens vs. CDN$ by $0.02 = +$0.01 to EPS

Source: PotashCorp

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* Guidance as at January 29, 2015

** Does not include capitalized interest

***Represents share of earnings in equity-accounted investees and dividend income from available-for-sale investments

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E

Source: PotashCorp

PotashCorp Capital Spending*

Capital Spending Declining; Dividend Increased ~9 Percent in January 2015

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

US$ Billions

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4.2%

3.0%

2.1% 2.0%

0.0%0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

POT AGU MOS CF IPI

Percent Yield***

Dividend Yield

Quarterly dividend increased to $0.38 per

share in January 2015

* Cash additions to property, plant and equipment per cash flow statement (2008-2014); 2015F-2018E includes Major Repairs and Maintenance expenditures. As we adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010, information from 2008-2009 is presented on a previous Canadian generally accepted accounting principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, previous results may not be comparable to 2010 forward.

** Includes sustaining capital estimates and current remaining spending on existing opportunity projects

*** Indicated yield percentage as per Bloomberg at January 28, 2015

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Thank you

Reconciliation and Description of Non-IFRS Measures

Source: PotashCorp

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