Policy performance for reducing emissions from avoided

deforestation and forest degradation under a new climate

agreement Maria Brockhaus Marrakech, November 2016

“Climate change cannot be won without the world’s forests. This, however, will be a

complex and challenging feat.”

Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary-General, September 2008

Forests and Climate Change

REDD+ policy performance to deliver effectively, efficiently

and equitable for the 1.5 goal?

Transformational Change

Shifts in discursive practices, economic incentives, and power relations that lead away from

business as usual policy approaches that directly or indirectly support deforestation and forest degradation (Brockhaus and Angelsen, 2012; Di Gregorio et al, 2012)

Examples:i) changes in economic, regulatory and governance

frameworksii) removals of perverse incentivesiii) reforms of forest industry policies and regulations

2007 - COP13: RED(D) included in Bali Action Plan; Readiness investments……….……….2013: COP 19 Warsaw framework, results based finance……….

REDD+

- based on Hansen data - preliminary analysis provided by Nikki de Sy in September 2016

Progress with REDD+ policy making using QCA analysis

in 15 countries since 2011

Country

REDD

(Establishment of comprehensive policies targeting transformational change in the REDD+

policy domain: 0=absent, 1=present)

Trend Forest loss in %

(based on: Annual Forest cover loss 2001 - 2007 (ref period) relative to

2008 - 2014 (1000 ha/y)

Forest loss trajectory since 2007 (Bali road

map) - 2014

Forest loss trajectory since 2013 (Warsaw

framework) - 2014

2012 2014 2016

Brazil 1 1 1 -28.5 decrease increaseBurkina Faso

0 0 0 -62.1 light decrease (no data 2014)

Cameroon0 0 0 94.2 strong increase strong increase

DRC 0 1 1 61.9 strong increase increaseEthiopia - 0 0 79.0 increase decrease

Guyana - 1 1 49.5 increase increase

Indonesia1 1 1 48.8 light increase increase

Mozambique0 0 0 57.8 light increase stable

Nepal 0 0 0 15.1 decrease decrease

Peru 0 0 1 74.8 increase decrease

PNG 0 0 0 40.1 strong increase strong increaseTanzania

0 1 1 75.2 strong increase decrease

Vietnam 1 1 0 116.4 strong increase increase

Changes in policy making – from rhetoric to action?

Agents of change and new coalitions emerging, new incentives, and new discourses highlighting equity implications of REDD+ as well as effectiveness and efficiency

but BAU actor coalitions are powerful, main drivers of

deforestation not yet tackled Rhetoric and power struggles everywhere

Institutional stickiness, interests, ideas, and information issues rather hinder than emable move from BAU to TC

A chicken and egg problem

REDD+ needs change to work , but REDD+ also supposed to induce change:

REDD+  induces change (somewhat)at the political-administrative level: institutionally, technically, collaborative capacities increasing;

BUT REDD has not (yet) received the changes it would need to be

fully effective efficient and equitable, as the political economic conditions remain largely the same (see case of Indonesia)

Ways forward to enhance policy performance

- Forests need to be high on international AND national agendas

- States need to gain autonomy from the entrenched interests driving deforestation, enforce decisions to regulate large-scale international and domestic investor behavior (Brazil example)

Overcoming political economy barriers to change requires: legitimacy, ownership and leadership Only an empowered civil society can hold state and business accountable to their commitments and promises.

We acknowledge the support from:the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad), the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), the European Union (EU), the UK Government, USAID, the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) and the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (CRP-FTA) with financial support from the CGIAR Fund.

& all research partners and individuals that have contributed to the GCS research

Thanks