Policy performance for reducing emissions from avoided
deforestation and forest degradation under a new climate
agreement Maria Brockhaus Marrakech, November 2016
“Climate change cannot be won without the world’s forests. This, however, will be a
complex and challenging feat.”
Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary-General, September 2008
Forests and Climate Change
REDD+ policy performance to deliver effectively, efficiently
and equitable for the 1.5 goal?
Transformational Change
Shifts in discursive practices, economic incentives, and power relations that lead away from
business as usual policy approaches that directly or indirectly support deforestation and forest degradation (Brockhaus and Angelsen, 2012; Di Gregorio et al, 2012)
Examples:i) changes in economic, regulatory and governance
frameworksii) removals of perverse incentivesiii) reforms of forest industry policies and regulations
2007 - COP13: RED(D) included in Bali Action Plan; Readiness investments……….……….2013: COP 19 Warsaw framework, results based finance……….
REDD+
- based on Hansen data - preliminary analysis provided by Nikki de Sy in September 2016
Progress with REDD+ policy making using QCA analysis
in 15 countries since 2011
Country
REDD
(Establishment of comprehensive policies targeting transformational change in the REDD+
policy domain: 0=absent, 1=present)
Trend Forest loss in %
(based on: Annual Forest cover loss 2001 - 2007 (ref period) relative to
2008 - 2014 (1000 ha/y)
Forest loss trajectory since 2007 (Bali road
map) - 2014
Forest loss trajectory since 2013 (Warsaw
framework) - 2014
2012 2014 2016
Brazil 1 1 1 -28.5 decrease increaseBurkina Faso
0 0 0 -62.1 light decrease (no data 2014)
Cameroon0 0 0 94.2 strong increase strong increase
DRC 0 1 1 61.9 strong increase increaseEthiopia - 0 0 79.0 increase decrease
Guyana - 1 1 49.5 increase increase
Indonesia1 1 1 48.8 light increase increase
Mozambique0 0 0 57.8 light increase stable
Nepal 0 0 0 15.1 decrease decrease
Peru 0 0 1 74.8 increase decrease
PNG 0 0 0 40.1 strong increase strong increaseTanzania
0 1 1 75.2 strong increase decrease
Vietnam 1 1 0 116.4 strong increase increase
Changes in policy making – from rhetoric to action?
Agents of change and new coalitions emerging, new incentives, and new discourses highlighting equity implications of REDD+ as well as effectiveness and efficiency
but BAU actor coalitions are powerful, main drivers of
deforestation not yet tackled Rhetoric and power struggles everywhere
Institutional stickiness, interests, ideas, and information issues rather hinder than emable move from BAU to TC
A chicken and egg problem
REDD+ needs change to work , but REDD+ also supposed to induce change:
REDD+ induces change (somewhat)at the political-administrative level: institutionally, technically, collaborative capacities increasing;
BUT REDD has not (yet) received the changes it would need to be
fully effective efficient and equitable, as the political economic conditions remain largely the same (see case of Indonesia)
Ways forward to enhance policy performance
- Forests need to be high on international AND national agendas
- States need to gain autonomy from the entrenched interests driving deforestation, enforce decisions to regulate large-scale international and domestic investor behavior (Brazil example)
Overcoming political economy barriers to change requires: legitimacy, ownership and leadership Only an empowered civil society can hold state and business accountable to their commitments and promises.
We acknowledge the support from:the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad), the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), the European Union (EU), the UK Government, USAID, the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) and the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (CRP-FTA) with financial support from the CGIAR Fund.
& all research partners and individuals that have contributed to the GCS research
Thanks
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