Olof Palme in the Context of the Cold War and Swedish Neutrality

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    Research Paper

    Olof Palme in the context of the Cold War and Swedish neutrality

    A comparative, historical text analysis

    Author: Mats AnderssonSupervisor/Examinant: Amr G. E. SabetSubject field: Political Scienceourse: Research Paper in Political Science ! "istance #earnin$ %S&'()'*Points: +., E-S redits"ate: ('!(!(+

    01$s2olan "alarna+3' 44 5alunS6eden

    -el: 7) (8 ++ 4( ((

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    Table of contents

    Abstract

    1 !ntroduction 1

    '.'. -he issue area ' '.. Research aim and research 9uestions ' '..'. Earlier research '... "efinin$ the old ar 8 '..8. "efinin$ S6edish neutralit; , '.8. #imitations '.). Methodolo$ical considerations '.).'. Method '.).. Source material + '.)..'.

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    Abstract

    5rom '3)+ to '343= an era 6hich lar$el; coincided 6ith the political career of S6edish PrimeMinister and Social "emocratic Part; leader >lof Palme %'3+!'34*= the 6orld 6itnessed aold ar= 6here t6o blocs= each led b; a superpo6er= emer$ed.

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    1 !ntroduction

    lofPalmeCs texts and speeches= from '33= 6hen he became the leader of the Social "emocratic Part;=to '34= 6hen he= still bein$ the leader of the part;= 6as assassinated= this to see 6hat ideolo$ical

    position he actuall; too2= and ho6 it mi$ht have varied over time. -he bi$$er 9uestion becomes6hether the texts and speeches= in terms of the East vs est scenario= could reveal a positive orne$ative attitude to6ards the t6o superpo6ers/blocs respectivel;= and 6hether an eventual chan$eof attitude could be related to the chan$in$ character of the old ar.

    '

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    5i$ure '. Research overvie6.

    -he thesis statementthus becomes: %'* "espite >lof PalmeCs claim of practicin$ S6edish neutralit;=he still= durin$ his time as the leader of the Social "emocratic Part;= expressed Eastern or estern

    preferences= 6hich in effect si$naled ne$ative and positive attitudes to6ards the t6o superpo6ers=%* attitudes 6hich also varied over time due to the chan$in$ character of the old ar and thedifferent historical phases it 6ent throu$h.

    1"1 )arlier research

    As E2en$ren %'33+= p. +* concludes in her research revie6 of S6eden durin$ the old ar= for alon$ time= studies in S6edish forei$n and securit; policies 6ere ne$lected. Since= E2en$ren %((,*

    herself has published a stud; specificall; dealin$ 6ith >lof PalmeCs relation to the S6edish forei$npolic;= a stud; also emphasiin$ the importance of ta2in$ the ideas of the individual into account6hen stud;in$ politics %Goldstein &eohane= '338 cited in E2en$ren ((,= pp. '4!'3*.

    5rom a broader perspective= not explicitl; focusin$ on >lof Palme= but rather= the Social"emocratic Part;= alternativel; S6eden as a 6hole= and its supposedl; neutral role durin$ the oldar= man; boo2s have been published. 0ere= just to $ive an outline of the research field in 9uestion=< 6ill summarie some of the contributions. 5or a more thorou$h exposH < recommend E2en$renCs%'33+*= alread; mentioned= revie6.

    0uldt and Mis$eld %'33(* for6ard the 9uestion as of 6hether S6edish forei$n polic;= as practiced

    b; Social "emocratic $overnments= has been uni9ue in character= as opposed to other possible

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    forei$n policies= and ?jereld %'33* deals 6ith the contradictor; roles of S6eden durin$ the oldar= on the one hand denouncin$ various perceived immoralities carried out b; other states= on theother hand stressin$ mediation and peaceful solutions to international conflicts.

    #1dHn %'333* investi$ates ho6 S6eden activel; durin$ the '3(Cs and '3+(Cs= throu$h forei$npolic;= sou$ht to ma2e the S6edish social 6elfare model internationall; reno6ned= and #inder

    %(((*= as 6ell as &ronvall and Petersson %((,*= examines the difficult balancin$ act S6eden=bein$ situated bet6een t6o superpo6ers= had to $o throu$h durin$ the latter half of the ( thcentur;=a topic also loo2ed into b; AndrHn %'33*= the latter thou$h puttin$ more 6ei$ht to the Europeanscene.

    1"" /efinin the Cold War

    -here are several opposin$ vie6s debatin$ exactl; 6hen the old ar started= a 9uestion alsorelated to the issue of 6ho or 6hat started it %e.$. ?a;lis Smith= ((,= pp. 34!33F B;e= ((4= pp.''+!'(*. 0o6ever= m; focus of research is on PalmeCs vie6s= and therefore= to be able to relatehim to the old ar context= m; concern is not to delve an; deeper into the exact ori$in and the

    causes of the conflict= but rather= merel; reflect the fact that there wasa old ar= explain itsmechanisms= and also historicall; picture the different phases it 6ent throu$h.

    After the Second orld ar= 6hich ended in '3),= imperialism came to be loo2ed upon 6ithincreased contempt internationall;. Man; colonies called for national liberation= 6hat came to be2no6n as decoloniation= as colonialism 6as seen as as incompatible 6ith the Dnited Bations %DB*harter %?a;lis Smith= ((,= pp. 3,!34* 6hich promoted human ri$hts= e9ualit; and self!determination %iid.= p. )(+*. As the old ar 6ent on= the t6o superpo6ers and their allies becamemore and more involved in the colonial stru$$le for independence= 6here the t6o blocs fou$ht eachother indirectl;= b; $ivin$ support to various opposin$ $roups 6ithin the countries %iid.= pp. 3+!34*= each superpo6er/bloc tr;in$ to promote theirpreferred political 6orld order %B;e= ((4= p.''+*.

    -he period bet6een '3), and '3,8 mar2ed the onset of the old ar= 6ith $ro6in$ tensionsbet6een the former allies of the Second orld ar= the Dnited States= ?ritain= 5rance and theSoviet Dnion. -he estern states suspected that the Soviet polic; to6ards Eastern Europe rested onideolo$ical expansionist $oals rather than= 6ith re$ards to earlier attempts to invade Russia and theSoviet Dnion= historic securit; concerns.

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    come to po6er in hina= and the follo6in$ ;ear= 6hen Borth &orea attac2ed South &orea= in 6hat6ould become a 6ar lastin$ for three ;ears= this 6as seen b; the Americans as part of a bi$$ercommunist offensive= resultin$ in a DS/DB bac2ed intervention a$ainst Borth &orea= the latter partsupported b; the hinese %iid.= pp. 33!'((*.

    -he period ran$in$ from '3,8 to '33 6ent from conflict and confrontation to compromise= and

    be$an 6ith the death of Stalin= and later= hastened b; the '3,) rearmament of the 5ederal Republicof German;= the creation of the arsa6 Pact in '3,,= the Eastern e9uivalent of BA->. StalinCssuccessor= Bi2ita &hrushchev= 6anted to modernie Soviet= 6hich at the same time releasedreformist sentiments in Eastern Europe= not the least in 0un$ar; in '3,= 6here the Soviet Dnionintervened to stop the upheaval. &hrushchev sou$ht coexistence 6ith the est= 6hile at the sametime pursuin$ confrontation= and his support of national liberation movements once a$ain createdestern fears of a $lobal communist ta2eover= 6ith increased DS support to friends= the subvertionof -hird orld enemies= and a build!up of American conventional forces= to6ards the end of the'3,(Cs also nuclear missiles= in estern Europe as result %iid.= p. '((*.

    -he uban Missile risis in '3 came to be the perhaps most critical event of the 6hole old ar

    era= 6hen the Dnited States discovered Soviet nuclear missiles deplo;ed in uba. DS PresidentIohn 5. &enned; imposed a partial bloc2ade of uba= and after six da;s= the Soviets a$reed to6ithdra6 the missiles in return for a $uarantee that the Dnited States 6ould not invade uba= andalso= 6ithdra6 e9uivalent BA-> missiles from Europe. -his experience $ave 6a; for a more stable

    period of coexistence= albeit= 6ith both sides still increasin$ their nuclear arsenals= still supportin$friends and underminin$ enemies= not the least in Kietnam= 6here the Americans from '3,on6ards supported South Kietnam a$ainst the hinese and Soviet bac2ed communist re$ime in

    Borth Kietnam. "espite of this= the increased mutual a6areness of the need to avoid nuclear 6ar=and= an unrestrained arms race= created a relaxation bet6een the t6o superpo6ers= in 6hat came to

    be 2no6n as d#tente= a strate$; also practiced b; German Socialist hancellor ill; ?randt= the socalled Ost$oliti%,b; reco$niin$ the status of ?erlin and the soverei$nt; of East German; %iid.= pp.34!'('*. As for Soviet internal affairs= in '34= shortl; after the crushin$ of the echoslova2revolt %iid.= p. ''3*= Soviet leader #eonid ?rehnev declared the ?rehnev "octrine= statin$ thatmembers of the arsa6 Pact 6ould enjo; onl; limited soverei$nt; in their political development%iid.= p. 3,*.

    -he ;ears '33 to '3+3 sa6 the rise and fall of d#tente. ?oth the Dnited States and the Soviet Dnionattempted to mana$e their relations b; ne$otiation and a$reement= but each side continued to pursuetheir political $oals= and the Americans perceived the Soviet support for revolutionar; $roups in the-hird orld= for example in Ethiopia and An$ola= as double dealin$.

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    actions of the Rea$an administration ver; seriousl;= suspectin$ that the DS 6as plannin$ its firstnuclear stri2e %iid.= p. '(*.

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    defense as purel; defensive= his reasonin$ restin$ on the assumption that if the attitude of the GreatPo6ers is influenced b; credibilit; in our abilit; to safe$uard our neutralit; 6ith the aid of ourmilitar; defence 6e have a real opportunit; to escape involvement in a future 6ar % iid.= pp. '!')*.

    ur main tas2 is to secure S6edenCs independence and protectthe peace. >ur main responsibilit; is to safe$uard our ri$ht to decide our o6nfuture= to safe$uard our democratic social order. -his responsibilit; is bestmana$ed throu$h a firm neutralit; polic;.

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    multidimensional= in a 6a; fluid= approach= < am hopin$ to be able to understand and characteriethe texts and speeches in a fairl; broad= at the same time comparativel; deep manner= compared toif a more static approach had been applied. -o use the ideal classes of research strate$ies proposed

    b; Ra$in and Amoroso %(''= p. 8*= m; approach mostl; resembles the comparative researchstud;= focusin$ on the diversit; that exists across a moderate number of cases= that is= a compromise

    bet6een the ver; thic2 and focused 9ualitative stud; and the more shallo6 and broad 9uantitative

    stud;= all this embraced b; a cross!time comparative perspective %Peters= '334= p. 8*.

    1%" Source material

    "urin$ his career= Palme produced a vast amount of speeches and texts= and to cover all of these is6ell out of ran$e for this= and perhaps an;= research project. As a conse9uence= as far as the sourcematerial is concerned= the $oal has been to $ather a chronolo$icall; 6ell balanced andrepresentative selection of texts and speeches. -herefore= a total of thirteen speeches= ran$in$ from'3+( to '34)= have been selected= the t6o speeches referred to in the section dealin$ 6ith S6edishneutralit; %'..8* here excluded.

    -he main sources= as these focus on international relations and S6edish forei$n polic;= consists oft6o= partl; overlappin$= publications= 2N must e stren3thened4 - Olof Palme5s s$ee/hes in 2N)*+-)*.%>lsson Gustavsson= '33(* and Sweden5s forei3n $oli/y - 6ddresses y Olof Palme%Palme= '34)*= the latter compiled b; Palme himself. -hese have in turn been complimented 6ithmaterial from olof$alme7or3%n.d.*= a 6ebsite holdin$ di$italied versions of PalmeCs ori$inal speechmanuscripts= and other documents as 6ell= 6ith the aim of $ivin$ public access to the politicalactivit; of >lof Palme.

    -he advanta$e of usin$ texts and %personal* political speeches as source material= is that there canbe no doubt of 6hat reall; happened %6as said*F -here is no need to use prox; evidence toreconstruct PalmeCs statements.

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    radicall; 6ould have chan$ed his ideolo$ical standpoint= and also= as this research paper focuses onhis expressions over time= this 6ill provide for a comparative= historical= overall pattern/tendenc;=6hich 6ill decrease the dependenc; on sin$le speeches and comments and their effect on the

    picture as a 6hole.

    1& /isposition

    hapter one starts 6ith a brief summar; of >lof Palme %'*= the various ima$es of him that existedand the political context of his time %'.'*. -he next se$ments introduce the research aim and thethesis statement %'.*= a revie6 of the earlier research that has been made %'..'*= a thorou$hdefinition of the old ar %'..* and the concept of S6edish neutralit; %'..8*= both phenomenadescribed from a historical perspective= and lastl;= the scope of the research paper %'.8*. -hefollo6in$ sections deal 6ith the method %'.).'* and the source material %'.).= and '.)..'*=includin$ related issues.

    hapter t6o holds a critical discussion %* and a description of the theoretical fundaments of theresearch paper %.'.' throu$h .'.8*= 6hereas chapter three contains the actual empiricism/speeches=

    mainl; presented in chronolo$ical order %8*. hapter four holds the anal;sis of the empiricalmaterial= as derived throu$h each of the theoretical perspectives respectivel; %).' throu$h ).8*=follo6ed b; the conclusion= 6here the perspectives= includin$ the historical one= are 6ei$heda$ainst each other %).)*. -he latter chapter also includes a brief discussion on possible areas forfuture research %).,*. #ast of all the references have been listed.

    " Theoretical considerations

    -here are man; theories to choose from 6hen tr;in$ to ma2e sense of various phenomena= andnaturall;= all of them can not be embraced.

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    "1 !nternational relations theories

    "11 -ealism

    Realism= stron$l; lin2ed to the political ideolo$; of onservatism= rests on an old le$ac; of thou$htthat in a ver; broad sense can be summaried in the term raison d5#tat= or in other 6ords= the reason

    of state. 0ere= thin2ers such as -huc;dides= Biccolo Machiavelli= -homes 0obbes and Iean!Iac9uesRousseau= provided state leaders 6ith a code of conduct on ho6 to handle forei$n affairs= so as to$uarantee the securit; and survival of the state. >ne important aspect of this perspective 6as thedual moral standard= impl;in$ one moral standard for individuals= livin$ 6ithin the state= andanother for the state as such in its dealin$s 6ith other states. utside the state= anarch; rules=that is= the absence of a central authorit; standin$ above the states= and that is 6h; the secondelement= survival= becomes so important. 0ere= Realists ar$ue that po6er= especiall; militar;= is acrucial component= enablin$ the state to $et 6hat it 6ants throu$h the threat or use of force. -hisdoes not mean that all other state interests= such as economic= social et /etera= are i$nored= but if thestate succumbs= then these secondar; $oals 6ill not be fulfilled either. All this points to the thirdconcept= self!help= impl;in$ that in an anarchic 6orld= the state can not rel; on other actors for itssafet;= nor states= nor= and even less so= international institutions %iid.= pp. '8!')*.

    "espite the commonalities= one particularl; important dividin$ line bet6een the Realist branchesshould be mentionedF

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    freedom and justice in international relations= this b; the alterin$ of the individual consciousness=the presence of republican constitutionalism= and a federal a$reement bet6een states to expun$e6ar. -his federal a$reement 6ould si$nif; permanent peace rather than a 6orld $overnment. #ateron= in the mid!nineteenth centur;= elaboratin$ on the ideas of Adam Smith= and ta2in$ them into theinternational realm= Richard obden ar$ued that freedom also depended on the spread of commerceand free trade= and the diffusion of education. Alto$ether= these ideas 6ould eventuall; $ive rise to

    the democratic peace thesis= developed durin$ the later half of the (th

    centur;= impl;in$ that liberalstates are less inclined to $o to 6ar 6ith each other %iid.= pp. '44!'3(*.

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    $ Texts and speeches

    lsson Gustavsson= '33(= pp. ')!',*.

    0o6ever= Palme also emphasied the ne$ative aspects of this duopolic peace and its effect onsmaller states= especiall; the latter runnin$ the ris2 of= for political and militar; purposes= bein$controlled b; the superpo6ers. 0e said: < ma; be simplif;in$= but couldnCt one sa; that in theinterest of peace the small people should have the ri$ht to be left aloneQ LN -o stren$then theDnited Bations is of the utmost importance for the small countries. -he charter as such offers a

    splendid machiner; for the interpla; bet6een the bi$ and the man; small states in the 6orld %>6ntranslation* %iid.= p. ',*. 5urthermore= he insisted upon= developed as 6ell as developin$ countriesincluded= the necessit; of brid$in$ the enormous social and economic $aps existin$ bet6een therich and the poor= emphasiin$ the causal relationship bet6een $ro6in$ social ine9ualities andviolence %iid.= p. '4*.

    radour= ?abi ar= &at;n= #idice= Sharpeville and -reblin2a.Kiolence has triumphed. ?ut the verdict of posterit; has fallen hard on those 6hohave carried the responsibilit;. Bo6 there is one further name to add to the ro6.0anoi ! hristmas '3+ %>6n translation* %olofpalme.or$= '3+= p. '*.

    >n6$ril )*th, )*+.= at the +,thAnniversar; of the Stoc2holm or2ers ommune= in response to theincreasin$ unemplo;ment rates in America as 6ell as Europe= Palme criticied consumerism=noticin$ that the destructive forces of capitalism still had not been tempered= but he also criticiedthe ommunist economic s;stem due to its incapabilit; to produce democrac; and social justice=

    here= especiall; alludin$ to the dictatorial re$ime in echoslova2ia= of 6hich he referred to as thecattle of dictatorship %>6n translation*. 0e thereb; came to the conclusion that to the "emocraticSocialism either capitalism or communism can offer acceptable solutions to our social problems%>6n translation* %olofpalme.or$= '3+,a= pp. 3!''*. -his messa$e 6as also delivered at the Social"emocratic Part; on$ress five months later= on Se$temer (th, )*+.= an event other6ise 2no6nfor havin$ harbored PalmeCs referrment to the 5ranco re$ime in Spain as satanic murderers%olofpalme.or$= '3+,b= p. '*:

    apitalism represents no dream of freedom. -o our o6n ;outh= 6ho are en$a$edin supportin$ national and social liberation movements= it has been revealed ho6capitalism relies on the support of repressive re$imes.

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    forei$n one that is protected b; domestic militar; forces and oppressors. LNn No1emer ))th, )*+.= Palme held another address in front of the Dnited Bations GeneralAssembl;= 6here he tal2ed about his belief in e9ualit; within states as a prere9uisite for e9ualit;etweenstates.

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    6n translation* used b; the Moderats. hile underlinin$ that all democrats 6ere a$ainstthe communist dictatorship in Eastern Europe %iid.*= a statement also put for6ard in Strasbour$=5rance= on Se$temer (th, )*= in an address to the ouncil of Europe %iid.= p. 4+*= he perceivedthe phrase as a s;mbol for a estern crusade= 6here the intent on crushin$ the Eastern s;stem b;

    puttin$ external pressure to it= rather= 6ould increase the arms race and the li2eliness of 6ar. Giventhis= Palme reminded the listeners of 6hat he sa6 as the essence of S6edish forei$n polic;: ... the

    purpose has been to brid$e ! not deepen ! the anta$onisms bet6een East and est= to see2 consent !not conflict ! and to support the relaxation polic; that has meant so much to the peace in Europe=and furthermore= ... the people in Eastern Europe have better prere9uisites of chan$in$ theirsituation in a climate of international relaxation than in times of harsh confrontation %>6ntranslation* %iid.= pp. ,'!,*.

    -o elaborate on the above= 6hat Palme sou$ht= as presented in Stoc2holm= S6eden= on;anuary)+th, )*== at the onference on onfidence and Securit; ?uildin$ Measures and "isarmament inEurope= 6as a climate characteried b; close contacts and cooperation= based on mutual respect=6here the cross!border dialo$ue 6ould $enerate understandin$ and trust. 0e said: "ifferentideolo$ies must not tie us do6n to self!ri$hteous and suspicious attitudes. #et the people themselvesrealie their interests and in 6hat 6a; these interests can be promoted. -he; 6ill choose the 6a; ofreconciliation and peace %>6n translation*.

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    suspicion that S6edish territor; in a conflict ma; be used b; another po6er %>6n translation*%iid.= pp. 8!,*.

    ther6ise= and especiall; the closer it $ot to hiso6n European bac2;ard= he sou$ht 3radualchan$e. Seen a$ainst this bac2$round= rather= hisseemin$l; obvious Marxist rhetoric lands in the %Social* #iberal camp= and at best= if 6e 6ere total2 political ideolo$;= in the Socialist Reformist camp %#arsson= ((= p. )3*. -o elaborate on thethe path here implied= and to alter the perspective= in fact= Marxism could be used the other 6a;around= to sho6 that Palme= 6hen it came to the handlin$ of international relations= did notbelon$to a Marxist le$ac; of thou$ht.

    5irst= in addition to 6hat has alread; been concluded as incommensurable 6ith Marxism=Reformism= Palme 6as a $reat supporter of the Dnited Bations and its charter= and he even thou$htthat the or$aniationCs competencies should be stren$thened. Second= in connection 6ith the

    previous claim= Palme sou$ht relaxation= and even if he denounced the balance of terror= and astime pro$ressed= more and more so= he did notice the realities of the balance of$ower= and for themoment bein$= he accepted it as a temporar; s;stem stabilier= 6here he envisioned that thetensions bet6een the blocs= throu$h consent and the abrid$ement of anta$onisms= 6ould lessen intime.

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    -hus= it can be concluded that Palme certainl; sho6ed rhetorical a6areness of a Marxist lo$ic= andin some areas= here impl;in$ his vision of the solidaric societ;= his thou$hts even 6ent in line 6ithsome of MarxismCs more modern thin2ers. ?ut essentiall;= 6hen it comes to the 9uestion of 6hat he

    perceived as le$itimate methods to chan$e societ;= Palme 6as not Marxist.

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    accordance 6ith the principle of neutralit;= and 6hen it literall; came do6n to the 9uestion of defa/to arms= ver; careful not to favor either sideF Given the situation= the balance of po6ere9uilibrium had to be maintained= but= he believed that tensions could be eased $raduall;= 6ith DSand Soviet conventional forces balanced at as lo6 level as possible. 5rom a Beo!#iberal

    perspective= this surel; 6ould have been perceived as an opportunit; of absolute $ains for all.0o6ever= the situation loo2ed upon from a Beo!Realist perspective= reveals that S6eden= in its

    a626ard position= situated bet6een t6o superpo6ers= actuall; $ained the most. And this is 6herethe Beo!#iberal and Beo!Realist approaches coincideF ?; usin$ Neo-Lieral ta/ti/s within theframewor% of an o1erall Neo-Realist strate3y= Palme sou$ht to secure S6edish independence= astrate$; that could be defined as= if ;ou 6ill= #iberal Beo!Realism= ver; 6ell in line 6ith PalmeCsvie6 of the S6edish forei$n polic; as the first line of defense= the militar; defense bein$ thesecond.

    0o6 about the other t6o actors thenQ Given that S6eden 6as part of a democratic estern 6orld=and on top of that= the democratic peace thesis ta2en into consideration= chances of infrin$ement onS6edish soverei$nt; 6ere less li2el; to come from the est. Rather= the threat came from theEastern hemisphere and the Marxist foundation it rested on. Alto$ether= these factors put Palme and

    S6eden under suspicion from the East alread; from the start= a realit; of 6hich he certainl; 6asa6areF East6ards= the elbo6!room 6as far lesser= but b; si$nalin$ a $radual= non!confrontationalapproach= it could be said that Palme indirectl; accepted the existence of the Soviet Dnion= andseen from this perspective= S6edenCs forei$n polic; served its purpose 6ell. As for the third part= theDnited States= and for that matter= the S6edish internal opposition as 6ell= the; $ained the least.?oth these actors= the Rea$an administration especiall;= stood behind a more confrontational politicto6ards the Soviet Dnion= but as it 6ere= PalmeCs forei$n polic; and international en$a$ement actedas a brea2= thereb; $ivin$ indirect le$itimac; to the Soviet Dnion. -o summarie= in all its intricac;=and to borro6 from the title of Ian #inderCs %(((* publication= S6edenCs forei$n political balancin$act durin$ the old ar reall; 6as a dance on a slac2 rope.

    %% Conclusion

    5rom a Marxist point of vie6= Palme can not be interpreted as an;thin$ else than an ambassador ofestern capitalism= but to solel; rel; on this perspective results in a picture 6hich does not do him

    justice. As < have sho6n= it is first 6hen Palme is loo2ed upon from a #iberal Beo!Realistperspective= that his indirect Eastern bias becomes understandable.

    Re$ardin$ the second aim of the stud;= to tr; to lin2 PalmeCs statements/tendencies to the $eneralphases of the old ar= t6o %non!opposin$* scenarios have emer$ed= one based on a positivecovariance= the other based on a ne$ative one. -he first scenario is represented b; PalmeCs reactions

    to events that had a bi$ impact 6orld 6ide= such as the 0anoi bombin$s in '3+= the Sovietinvasion of Af$hanistan= and the violations of S6edish territorial 6aters in the earl; '34(Cs. 0ere=Palme responded directl; to an event= althou$h= and important to sa;= not in a 6a; that diver$edfrom the alread; chosen path of neutralit;= soverei$nt;= relaxation and solidarit;. At such occasions=rather= he em$hasi>edhis core values= and seen from a short!term stimuli!response perspective=this behavior could be defined as positive covariance.

    Scenario t6o is represented b; the chan$in$ character of the old ar= from '3+3 on6ards= 6hatcame to be 2no6n as the USecond old ar= 6hen Palme did ta2e notice of the deterioration ofEast!est relations= but continued to stress the importance of a return to d#tente= and seen from alon$!term stimuli!response perspective= this bac26ard behavior could be defined as ne$ative

    covariance. -o sum up= the lastin$ impression= and 6hat thus contradicts the second part of the

    '+

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    thesis statement= is that PalmeCs chief values= as incorporated in the S6edish forei$n polic;= 6herever; consistent durin$ the 6hole period= from '33 to '34= albeit= not reall; neutral.

    %& 2uture research

    -here are man; aspects of >lof PalmeCs politicianship that could be studied in more detail= and one

    interestin$ research project 6ould certainl; be to examine ho6 Palme= durin$ the short time he hadleft= responded to the ne6 ideas of economic reor$aniation that Mi2hail Gorbachev brou$ht about6hen he became the ne6 General Secretar; of the Soviet ommunist Part; in '34,= and= dependin$on the result= 6hat possible %indirect* effect this response mi$ht have had on the overall distributionof po6er in the bipolar old ar s;stem. Another interestin$ project 6ould be to loo2 into 6hetheran; nuances in the understandin$ of the concept of S6edish neutralit;= durin$ the old ar= could

    be traced bet6een Palme and his successor=

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    'iterature

    AndrHn= Bils %'33*.?alan/e of $ower and freedom of allian/e - Swedish forei3n $oli/y durin3 the ( th/enturyLation of World Politi/s - 6n introdu/tion to internationalrelations78rded. >xford : >xford Dniversit; Press.

    ?er$$ren= 0enri2 %('(*. Wonderful days ahead of us - 6 io3ra$hy on Olof Palme L

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    )lectronic sources

    5erm= Anders >hlsson= Per -. %((*. >lof Palme ! ( ;ears later. 'o%us LnlineN L#ast updatedon 5ebruar; )th= ((N. Available at: Vhttp://666.fo2us.se/((/(/olof!palme!WEW4(W38!(!ar!senareXLAccessed Ma; th= ('N.

    olofpalme.or$ %'3+(*.6ddress 3i1en y Prime !inister Olof Palme at the BPeo$le and 9efen/eB Conferen/e at

    Storlien on 'eruary (, )*+ LDnofficial translationN L>nlineN. Available at: Vhttp://666.olofpalme.or$/6p!content/do2ument/+(((bYstorlien.pdfX LAccessed Ma; 'st= ('N.

    olofpalme.or$ %'3+*. Statement on the 2S omin3s of anoi Christmas )*+( LnlineN. Availableat: Vhttp://666.olofpalme.or$/6p!content/do2ument/+'8aYhanoiYjulenY'3+.pdfX LAccessed Ma; 4th=('N.

    olofpalme.or$ %'3+,a*. Prime !inister Olof Palme5s s$ee/h at the +.th6nni1ersary of the Sto/%holm Wor%ersCommune on 6$ril )*th )*+. LnlineN. Available at: Vhttp://666.olofpalme.or$/6p!content/do2ument/+,()'3Ysap.pdfX LAccessed Ma; +th= ('N.

    olofpalme.or$ %'3+,b*. So/ial 9emo/rati/ Party Con3ress - S$ee/h y Chairman Olof Palme on the draft

    $ro$osal for a Party Pro3ram Se$temer (, )*+. L>nlineN. Available at: Vhttp://666.olofpalme.or$/6p!content/do2ument/+,(34dYsap.pdfX LAccessed Ma; 4th= ('N.

    olofpalme.or$ %'3+,c*. S$ee/h y Prime !inister Olof Palme in the 2nited Nations &eneral 6ssemly, No1emer)), )*+. L>nlineN. Available at: Vhttp://666.olofpalme.or$/6p!content/do2ument/+,''''aYfn.pdfX LAccessedMa; +th= ('N.

    olofpalme.or$ %'34(*. Olof Palme - S$ee/h at the Sto/%holm Wor%ers5 Commune ;anuary )(th, )* L>nlineN.Available at: Vhttp://666.olofpalme.or$/6p!content/do2ument/4((''bYsthlmsYarbetare2ommun.pdfXLAccessed Ma; 3th= ('N.

    olofpalme.or$ %'348*. S$ee/h y the Prime !inister, !r7 Olof Palme, to the Paasi1i%i So/iety in elsin%i on )

    ;une )* L>nlineN. Available at: Vhttp://666.olofpalme.or$/6p!content/do2ument/48(('bYpaasi2ivi.pdfXLAccessed Ma; th= ('N.

    olofpalme.or$ %'34,*.6ddress in Sundyer3 and Sto/%holm !ay )st)*. LnlineN. Available at:Vhttp://666.olofpalme.or$/6p!content/do2ument/4,(,('Ysundb;ber$Ystoc2holm.pdfX LAccessed Ma; 'st=('N.

    olofpalme.or$ %n.d.*.6out this siteL>nlineN. Available at: Vhttp://666.olofpalme.or$/en/aboutX LAccessed Ma;4th= ('N.

    Pettersson= -homas Stenber$= E6a %((4*. lof Palme. 9a3ens nyheter LnlineN L#ast updated 8:,' PM on Ianuar; 'th= ((4N. Available at:Vhttp://666.dn.se/n;heter/sveri$e/cia!ville!varva!den!un$e!olof!palmeX LAccessed Ma; (th= ('N.

    +iblioraphy

    ?randt= ill;= &reis2;= ?runo Palme= >lof %'3+*. ?randt, Kreis%y, Palme - Letters and /on1ersations Lve %Ed.* %'33*.Palme himself - Sele/ted te"ts L

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    Palme= >lof %'3+*. To3ether we /an ma%e a 3ood /ountry etter - Olof Palme on the $oliti/s of the So/ial9emo/rats efore the ele/tion of )*+< Llof %'3++*.In his own words - Con1ersations with Ser3e Ri/hard and Nordal D%erman Llof %'34*.Politi/s is to want Llof %'34+*.6 li1in3 will Llof %((*. Solidarity without orders - Sele/ted s$ee/hes and te"ts Llof %((3*. We5ll meet a3ain /omrades - S$ee/hes and te"ts )*