Oil Production, Refining and the Tanker Market May 2015.

Oil Production, Refining and the Tanker Market

May 2015

VLCC Market and ME/WAf Production

© Maritime Strategies International

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

$ k/Day

Mn b/d

1997-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Refining and Freight Rates


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3

Sep

-13

Oct

-13

No

v-13

Dec

-13

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-14

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-14

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-15

Index: July 13 = 1Index: July 13 = 1

VLCC +Suezmax Fleet Global Refinery ThroughputComposite Crude Tanker Rates* (RH Axis)

The US-Middle East Relationship


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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

MnTpa

N. America Oil Consumption - Production Middle East Crude Exports

North America


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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

80020

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

MnTpaMnTpa

Crude Oil Production Crude Imports

Products Imports (RH Axis) Products Exports (RH Axis)

North American Stocks and Flows


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400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-14

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-14

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-15

May

-15

# RigsMn bbls

US Crude Oil Stocks Total North American Rig Count (RH Axis)

China


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

MnTpa

China Oil Consumption China Oil Refinery Thruput China Crude Imports

Incremental Crude Imports


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-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

10020

09

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

MnTpa

N. America/Europe Asia

1 Yr T/C Rate Forecast


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79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

%$ k/Day

MR 1-Yr T/C Rate

VLCC 1-Yr T/C Rate

World Refinery Operating Rate (RH Axis)

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Oil Production, Refining and the Tanker Market May 2015.

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