NEBRASKA INVESTMENT COUNCIL · Company Name Portfolio % 5yr EPS Growth Samsung Electronics 5.6 4%...

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Where Baillie Gifford pooled funds are held, please note the fund portfolio information contained within this report is confidential, proprietary information and should be maintained as such and not disseminated. The content is intended for information purposes only and should not be disclosed to other third parties or used for the purposes of market timing or seeking to gain an unfair advantage. Tim Campbell. February 2017 NEBRASKA INVESTMENT COUNCIL

Transcript of NEBRASKA INVESTMENT COUNCIL · Company Name Portfolio % 5yr EPS Growth Samsung Electronics 5.6 4%...

Page 1: NEBRASKA INVESTMENT COUNCIL · Company Name Portfolio % 5yr EPS Growth Samsung Electronics 5.6 4% Tencent 5.4 29% TSMC 5.2 14% Alibaba -4.0 125% China Life Insurance (Taiwan) 3.4

Where Baillie Gifford pooled funds are held, please note the fund portfolio information contained within this report is confidential, proprietary information and should be maintained as such and not disseminated. The content is intended for information purposes only and should not be disclosed to other third parties or used for the purposes of market timing or seeking to gain an unfair advantage.

Tim Campbell. February 2017

NEBRASKA INVESTMENT COUNCIL

Page 2: NEBRASKA INVESTMENT COUNCIL · Company Name Portfolio % 5yr EPS Growth Samsung Electronics 5.6 4% Tencent 5.4 29% TSMC 5.2 14% Alibaba -4.0 125% China Life Insurance (Taiwan) 3.4
Page 3: NEBRASKA INVESTMENT COUNCIL · Company Name Portfolio % 5yr EPS Growth Samsung Electronics 5.6 4% Tencent 5.4 29% TSMC 5.2 14% Alibaba -4.0 125% China Life Insurance (Taiwan) 3.4

Baillie Gifford’s Relationship With NIC

Nebraska Investment Council 1 February 2017

NIC funded Baillie Gifford with $54m in an Emerging Markets portfolio in 2003

— Net cashflows since funding: -$54m

— Current valuation as at January 31, 2017: $202m

— Net cumulative return since inception versus the benchmark after fees: 441% vs. 348%

Who are we?

— Founded in 1908, investing in Emerging Markets since the very beginning

— Unlimited liability partnership – solely focused on building long-term relationships with like-minded investors

— Experienced, stable team of investors responsible for your portfolio

Richard Sneller* Will Sutcliffe* Andrew Stobart Ewan Markson-Brown Mike Gush Roderick Snell

Sophie Earnshaw Rio Tu Jiaxi Liu

23 yrs’ experience

23 yrs with BG

18 yrs’ experience

18 yrs with BG

26 yrs’ experience

26 yrs with BG

17 yrs’ experience

4 yrs with BG

14 yrs’ experience

14 yrs with BG

11 yrs’ experience

11 yrs with BG

7 yrs’ experience

7 yrs with BG

3 yrs’ experience

3 yrs with BG

Joined in September 2016

*Partner

It has been a privilege to work for the NIC for almost 14 years

Page 4: NEBRASKA INVESTMENT COUNCIL · Company Name Portfolio % 5yr EPS Growth Samsung Electronics 5.6 4% Tencent 5.4 29% TSMC 5.2 14% Alibaba -4.0 125% China Life Insurance (Taiwan) 3.4

Baillie Gifford US Public Plan Clients

Nebraska Investment Council 2 February 2017

First US public plan client in 1993

Now manage $30.7bn across 27 states for

57 clients*

Supporting the industry through

— Membership of NASRA†, NCTR†† and the Council of Institutional Investors

— Signatory to the UNPRI††† US dollars, as of December 31, 2016 *Includes state, city, county and local pension plans †National Association of State Retirement Administrators ††National Council on Teacher Retirement †††United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment

An important and valued part of our business

Representative Client List

Client Name

Arkansas Public Employees Retirement System

California Public Employees’ Retirement System

California State Teachers

Colorado Public Employees’ Retirement Association

Indiana Public Retirement System

Kansas Public Employees Retirement System

Maryland State Retirement Agency

Massachusetts Pension Reserves Investment Management Board

Nebraska Investment Council

New York City Deferred Compensation Plan

Oklahoma Public Employees Retirement System

Pennsylvania Public School Employees’ Retirement System

State Board of Administration of Florida

The Public Employees’ Retirement System of Mississippi

Virginia Retirement System

The clients identified in the above list were selected based on a variety of factors, including name recognition, industry, geographic region and investment mandate. The selection of clients for the list is not based on performance criteria. It is not known whether the listed clients approve or disapprove of Baillie Gifford or services provided

Page 5: NEBRASKA INVESTMENT COUNCIL · Company Name Portfolio % 5yr EPS Growth Samsung Electronics 5.6 4% Tencent 5.4 29% TSMC 5.2 14% Alibaba -4.0 125% China Life Insurance (Taiwan) 3.4

An Extraordinary 12 Months?

Nebraska Investment Council 3 February 2017

Brexit was not expected to happen, Trump was not expected to win,

Leicester City were 5000-1 to win last year’s English Premier

League

But what really happened?

Has anything really changed?

Look at the economy, stock markets, interest rates, company

earnings…

Obsession with events is the enemy of prosperity and sanity

Page 6: NEBRASKA INVESTMENT COUNCIL · Company Name Portfolio % 5yr EPS Growth Samsung Electronics 5.6 4% Tencent 5.4 29% TSMC 5.2 14% Alibaba -4.0 125% China Life Insurance (Taiwan) 3.4

Navigating Global Headlines

Nebraska Investment Council 4 February 2017

What Should You Pay Attention To?

— The West Coast of America

— The East Coast of China

— Healthcare developments

What Should You Try To Ignore?

— Brexit

— GDP numbers

— Chinese Stock market gyrations

— Russia?

— Protectionism?

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What Will Drive Investment Returns For The Next 5 Years?

Nebraska Investment Council 5 February 2017

Technological disruption of massive pools of

capital

— Bricks and mortar retail

— Big pharma

— Energy

— Auto industry

— Finance

Chinese consumption to dwarf the West

The Plummeting Cost of Gene Sequencing

Source: National Human Genome Research Institute.

China’s Alibaba vs US Black Friday ($bn)

Source: BBC News/Statista.

Technology is driving dramatic changes in patterns of consumption

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Your Emerging Markets Portfolio

Nebraska Investment Council 6 February 2017

Top Ten Holdings

Company Name Portfolio % 5yr EPS Growth

Samsung Electronics 5.6 4%

Tencent 5.4 29%

TSMC 5.2 14%

Alibaba 4.0 125%

China Life Insurance (Taiwan) 3.4 23%

Reliance Industries 3.4 8%

Banco Bradesco 3.3 21%

Naspers 3.3 16%

Ping An Insurance 3.2 13%

HDFC 2.8 15%

Total 39.6 -

As at December 31, 2016. Source: Baillie Gifford/Bloomberg

Top and Bottom Five Country Positions (%)

Source: Baillie Gifford. As at December 31, 2016.

Sector Portfolio Positioning (%)

Source: Baillie Gifford. As at December 31, 2016.

Invested in Emerging Market companies that will drive future economic growth

-3.8

-2.6

-2.5

-1.6

-1.2

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South Africa

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Chile

Mexico

South Korea

China

Taiwan

India

-5.9

-3.9

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-2.9

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Telecommunication Services

Consumer Staples

Industrials

Utilities

Energy

Health Care

Materials

Financials

Consumer Discretionary

Real Estate

Information Technology

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How Can The Nebraska Investment Council Benefit From This?

Nebraska Investment Council 7 February 2017

Stay The Course!

Market volatility: Animal spirits vs. value of cashflows

2008/9 perfect example

European elections

@realDonaldTrump

MSCI Emerging Markets (12/31/07 – 12/31/09)

Source: Baillie Gifford. Rebased to 100.

MSCI Emerging Markets (1/31/97 – 1/31/17)

Source: Baillie Gifford. Rebased to 100.

Extrapolation of only the most recent trends can be very damaging to the wealth of your

participants

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Outlook

Nebraska Investment Council 8 February 2017

Low interest rates

Powerful persistent deflationary forces

Significant technology-driven change

Investing in these changes critical to meeting your return targets

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Biography

Nebraska Investment Council 9 February 2017

Tim Campbell

Tim graduated BA in History from Trinity

College, Dublin in 1997. He spent a year

teaching music in the Middle East before

joining Baillie Gifford in 1999 where he worked

as an Investment Manager in the Emerging

Markets Equity Team. There he had

responsibility for managing portfolios invested

in Asia before moving to the Clients

Department in 2007 where he is a Client

Service Director. Tim became a Partner of the

firm in 2012, he is a member of the Emerging

Markets Investment Advisory Group and the

Chair of the Emerging Markets Product

Group. He is based in the firm’s Edinburgh

home office but spends much of his time

working with Baillie Gifford’s Public Plan

Sponsor and Corporate clients in North

America.

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Legal Notices

Nebraska Investment Council February 2017

Index Data

No third party data provider (“Provider”) makes any warranty, express

or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data

contained herewith nor as to the results to be obtained by recipients of

the data. No Provider shall in any way be liable to any recipient of the

data for any inaccuracies, errors or omissions in the index data

included in this document, regardless of cause, or for any damages

(whether direct or indirect) resulting therefrom.

No Provider has any obligation to update, modify or amend the data or

to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any matter

stated herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.

Without limiting the foregoing, no Provider shall have any liability

whatsoever to you, whether in contract (including under an indemnity),

in tort (including negligence), under a warranty, under statute or

otherwise, in respect of any loss or damage suffered by you as a result

of or in connection with any opinions, recommendations, forecasts,

judgments, or any other conclusions, or any course of action

determined, by you or any third party, whether or not based on the

content, information or materials contained herein.

MSCI

Source: MSCI. The MSCI information may only be used for your

internal use, may not be reproduced or disseminated in any form and

may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial

instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is

intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to

make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may

not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be

taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis,

forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is”

basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any

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any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly

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FTSE

Source: FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is

a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is

used by FTSE International Limited under licence. All rights in the

FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors.

Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or

omissions in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings or underlying data

and no party may rely on any FTSE indices, ratings and / or data

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Page 16: NEBRASKA INVESTMENT COUNCIL · Company Name Portfolio % 5yr EPS Growth Samsung Electronics 5.6 4% Tencent 5.4 29% TSMC 5.2 14% Alibaba -4.0 125% China Life Insurance (Taiwan) 3.4