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Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then
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Transcript of Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then
Mobile Mobile Mobile
Who am I• Sittiphol Phanvilai
(nuuneoi)• 11 years in mobile
application development• Expertise on Smartphone
application development and UI/UX
• Experience 2 global apps with more than 1,000,000 downloads
Agenda
• Mobile Market• What’s now in Thailand• Get started on mobile app
development• To be mobile application developer• Want to have your own product?
Why Everyone goes for Mobile?
Why Mobile?
• I believe that everyone know the answer
• Everyone has mobile !• Mobile phone is not just a phone
anymore, they are now computer that could make a call
• Mobile phone is now treated as “Anytime Accessible Online Channel”
And somebody has already been rich
from mobile app
Apportunity
• App brings a lot of great opportunities to creator
To be rich
To be known (and may be rich)
To be hired
To expand the business
How does these Apportunities happen?
Ecosystem
App Store makes the world smaller
Journey of the app: Past
Key difficulty
• Hard to distribute the application• Hard to collect money from customer• Piracy always win (especially in
Thailand)
Journey of the app: Present
Key Advantage
• App distribution is not big deal anymore
• App Store collect the money for developer
• Piracy is also not big deal
Thanks to
Internet connect people together
Internet
Ecosystem is ready
Smartphone becomes the most effective connecting people
device
Definition of Mobile Applicationis changed
Mobile Application: Past
• The software on mobile
Mobile Application: Present
• The media that help user and brand connected via mobile
UnderstandMobile Market
Global Mobile Subscription
Penetration Percentage
Mobile Phone Markets
• There are two types of mobile phones:
Smartphone Feature phone
Smartphone is eating Feature Phone’s cake
• Q1’2013: Smartphone out-shipped Feature Phone
U.S. Smartphone Penetration
U.K. Smartphone Penetration
It is still world of feature phone but …
• There are two words you need to know:
• What is difference?
Potential User Non-potential user
Potential User
• User with potential to spend money on mobile app
• Use app frequently• Smartphone user is
Non-Potential User
• Opposite to Potential User• What is app?• Feature phone user is
Potential users are keep increasing
That’s mean cash flow in mobile app industry is keep increasing as well
What’s now in Thailand
Now in Thailand
• Very high demand on mobile app– But 95% of demand are “Gimmick”
• Very high supply on programmer– But low quality
• Quality developer goes abroad for big company
• Funny: Startup causes developer shortage• AEC will cause quality developer leaking
out more
Wanna be mobile application developer?
What to focus?
Good News: War End
Good News: War end
• Android is leader, iOS is latter– Cover more than 90% and will be like
this for at least 2 years
• Windows Phone is now No.3 but still has no potential (and keep going down)
• As well as BB10 and the rest
Bad News
Red Ocean
Red Ocean
• There are already winner in almost every single type of application
• It doesn’t mean there is no room for new app, there is but not so many
Bad News
• The winner is Android
Fragmentation
Fragmentation
Fragmentation
Fragmentation
Fragmentation
iOS vs Android
iOS vs Android
Go for Android and iOS(if you want to go mass)
So Android or iOS first?
iOS vs Android: Shipment
iOS vs Android
Anyway go for iOS first not Android
• Although Android market share is larger than iOS but …– Potential user is still less than iOS– Fragmentation is highhigh high high highhhhh
You need to go for them BOTH
• At the final stage, application is needed to be supported on both platform
• You also could do for them both at the same time– How? (TBD)
Bad News: Late game
• We are now in period of “Late game”• There is already a winner in every
single way– Hardware– Software
• You would never be the first one• Don’t try to fight with the winner
(unless you are so confident)
Late game
• No room for “just another application”
• Success rate is lower than previous• To survive:– Build the service or platform targeted
the specific target– Build on top the successful application– Build Enterprise application
MOLOME
• Had ever been intended to compete with Instagram
• Until Instagram was acquired by Facebook
MOLOME
Turn crisis into opportunity(Pivot)
Desktop vs Mobile
Desktop vs Mobile
• Desktop: Run on power supply
• Mobile: Run on Battery
Desktop vs Mobile
• Desktop: 2GB-32GB of RAM• Mobile: 256MB - 2GB
Desktop vs Mobile
• Desktop: Stable network
• Mobile: WiFi, 3G, 2G, No signal
Desktop vs Mobile
• Desktop: Large screen• Mobile: Small screen
Desktop vs Mobile
• Desktop: Very fast processor• Mobile: Far slower processor
Quality Mobile App Developer
Quality Mobile App Developer
• Know how to optimize code• Know how to deal with fragmentation• Can develop both iOS and Android• Know direction of technology and follow• Don’t stick with just one OS• Know the UI/UX guideline• Know how to share code with another• Crash
Get started on mobile application
development
Native
• Android: Java• iOS: Objective-C• Windows Phone: C# (Silverlight/WPF)• BB10: Qt (QML + C++)• Firefox OS: HTML + CSS
Cross Platform
Wanna own your product?
Startup 101
Startup 101
One thing you should know
Startup is simple thing thatvery very very hard
Basis• Good Team
– Founder– Developer– Business Development– PR & Marketing– Sale
• Great Idea• Vision• Monetization• Connection• Luck
Step
MarketingPRImpleme
ntDesignThink
40% 20% 20% 20%
Startup Ecosystem
Investor+
Startupwith
Scalable business
Startup Ecosystem in Thailand
• Almost ready• But the biggest problem is just about
1% reach investor’s need• Now fund is moving out from
Thailand to another country: Vietnam, Myanmar
Suggestion
• Think Local then Regional then Global
• What does it mean?
Scalable
Suggestion
• Don’t open company in Thailand• Go for Singapore
Secret behind mobile
application’s success
Success rate of mobile application
5%and keep lower by time
Key Success
• Cross Platform• Solve the problem• Snatch the “time in daily life”• Repeated user is more important
than new user (Gain & Keep)• Use Gimmick to gain user, use
feature to keep user• Has business model
Key Success (Cont.)
• Always deliver new things• Perfect time to market• Well-designed• Quality• PR and Marketing• Connection
Gimmick vs Feature
Gimmick vs Feature
Gimmick
• Wow !• Huuuu• Haaaaa• But boring• Short-life• Use it just
once or twice• Like ‘Magic’
Feature
• Wow !• Huuuu• Haaaaa• But boring• Short-life• Use it just
once or twice• Like ‘Magic’
Gimmick + Feature
• PR + Marketing + Real Feature
Gain & Keep
• Gain : To gain user to the system• Keep : To keep user using the
service
Gimmick
• Don’t measure succeed from Gimmick
Gimmick & Feature
• So how do you know which one is Gimmick, which one is feature?
“Sense”
Attack on‘Daily Life’
Attack on Daily Life
• As long as people still eat, dining application will still alive
• As long as people still talk, chatting application will still alive
• As long as people still take a photo, photo sharing application will still alive
• As long as people still have lust, sex, dating service and adult content will still last long
Dining
Chatting
Chatting
Photo Sharing
Adult
Business Model ofMobile Application
Business Model
• Free• Free with Ads• Sell the application/game• Free with In-App Purchase• Subscription• Expand the business to mobile• Sell your personal data
Free
• For fun• For portfolio
Free with Ads
• To collect some amount of money– 1-5 cents per user per day
• Need very high return rate• Annoying
Sell the application/game
• Just sell it• Work with just specific OS in specific
case• In general case, not work anymore
Free with In-App Purchase
• Distribute it for free and collect money from virtual item selling
Subscription
• Subscription base service. Collect money every week/month to extend the membership– Book–Movie– Etc.
To expand the business
Sell your personal data !
Success Case Study
Top 10 Revenue
LINE
• Chat platform is the new way of social networking
• At first, success with new method of chatting (Sticker)
• Now more successful with gaming service
• Give the new way to communicate with people
• Solve the “too hard to decorate photo on mobile“ problem
• Creator has very good connection
• Change the concept in time
Pulse News
• Present new way to read the news• Solve the problem “Hard to read
news on mobile phone”
LINE & Instagram & Pulse
• They are “Platform”• They are “Well-Designed”• Driven with “User generated
content”• In “Daily-Life”
Trends
World is rotate faster in mobile world
• Everything changes in “year”–Motorola has ever been No.1– Nokia has ever been No.1– BlackBerry has ever been No.1– Apple has ever been No.1– Samsung has ever been No.2
You need to know the trend and know what is going to
happen
Global Trends• Android will be No.1 for at least 5 years
from now on or might be forever• iOS will be No.2 for a big while as well• Cross Platform is a must• Potential user will (or already does) use
more than one smartphone with different OS
• Store everything on Cloud• Just software might not be enough
anymore
Thai Market
• 3G is (finally) available– Time to think about content to feed to
user
• Thai people basically doesn’t spend money on mobile app but dramatically love to spend money for showing off purpose
It is too late to be just aMobile Application
Developer
New way to develop app
• In future, app will be done by template– Shoppening– iBuildApp
• Demand for mobile app developer will be lower
• But there is still demand for skilled one
VC said: “Mobile App again?”
• Mobile app is the way too … many• Consumer app is in Red Ocean
situation• There is very big room to play in
Enterprise application
Next era is for
• Big Screen Hardware• Wearable Device• Robot
Application forbusiness owner
Enterprise Application
• Big room and great opportunity for developer and business owner
• Application to use internally for organization
• Last year is year of consumer application, this year is year of enterprise application
Case Study: Condomenium
Case Study: Insurance
Consumer Application to expand business
Augmented Realityon Mobile
Feature or Gimmick?
• 90% Gimmick• 10% Feature
Augmented Reality
• It is just a technique
It is all about content
Good Question
• AR was implemented for many years ago
• Why there is no success case that last long?
Cloud Computing
Cloud
• Why does Cloud matter?– People has many devices on hand– User need to sync data on every single
device
• How could we do?– via Server
• Server needs to be scalable for variant number of users– Scalable server = Cloud
Cloud
• Public Cloud• Private Cloud
Popular Public Cloud
• Amazon Web Service• Microsoft Azure• Advantage– Pay per use– Zero initial cost– Scalable
• Disadvantage– No privacy– Uncontrollable
The End