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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Fellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School

TheFutureofAlmostEverythingmanagingriskandcrea9ngmagicforcustomers

Ins9tu9onalBlindness-beyonddata

Complexity and scale create risks

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Benchmarking is toxic to risk

management and customer service

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Panama

LawsuitswillbefarlargerthanFines

Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting

Agility

Risk that 2 people in 10 have same birthday

10%

Risk that 2 people in 10 have same birthday

10%

Risk that 2 people in 23 have same birthday

Risk that 2 people in 23 have same birthday

50%

Risk that 2 people in 70 have same birthday

Risk that 2 people in 70 have same birthday

99.99%

Yet many trends changing more slowly

than people think

Cash growing - bank branches continue -

music, fashions, food - homes look the same,

where are all the robots?

Robots in Factories only 7% pa

What is the future of the global

ECONOMY

WGP2005-2014(%,constantprices)

VietnamGDP1985-2011

$3.4trillion

$2.4trillion

Reserves

One word will dominate ALL

FUTURE

The future is aboutEMOTION

REPUTATION

85% of world population will be living in emerging

markets in 10 years

1 billion will migrate over next 30 yearsspend on infrastructure in 30 years greater

than in all previous previous history

Science,technology

engineering,maths

MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets

ChinaandIndiadominate

STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs

Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child

1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time

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!63

Life expectancy will grow much

faster than forecast

1weekevery4

Repair Heart / Brain / Eyes with stem cells

Slow or no ageing is a reality

Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales

No signs of getting old

Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years

Some animals do not age in normal way

TRIBES

TEAMS

GROUPS

FRIENDS

1trillionpagesamonth

People love Cities and Offices

Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based 60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)

90% all global data generated in last 2 years

Sales of canned food in Mexico store = demand for more steel tins in China

Big Data

Little Data often matters

most

Creating magic for clients often costs

NOTHING

missing you

Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? work, food,

drink, chat, party, unwind, dark, quiet, sleep, leave

Customerinsightearnsyoutherighttowhisperadvicealongthejourneyoflife

End of Marketing

Globalised+BarriersProblemofScale

VW mega platformVWMegaPla]orm-basisfor1mcars

World too small for more than:2 airline manufacturers

3 mobile operating systems10 large pharma

5 large auto companies

Multi-product assembly lines

Self-diagnosing and healing

3D scans - 3D printing

11%wageinfla_oninChinain2013-2015

NearshoringBoom

AcrossEU,10grocerscapture50%ofsales

Most online sales will be MOBILE

Loca_onMarke_ng

isnextBIGTHING

Over4000roadhauliersinEU

Goldstandard:

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Internet of Things

$12bn security and controlhome automation market by 2018

250millionwearabledevicesby2023

$20bnto$70bnby2025

1.7bnmobileusers-nobankaccount Kenya-17mcustomersusemPesa $9bnpa->33%GDP

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1.7bnphoneusersareunbanked

80% global bandwidth will be video by 2018

TELCOSbecomevideotransmieers

Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model

201020132015

TelcoBanks

Time at bank teller cut from 4 to 1 minute

Banks and Telcos need

each other to make MAGIC

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WebofThings-BigData-Cloud180bnspamemailsaday

600mnewviruses,malware,trojansayear>220mpeoplesdetailslostinsingleaeack70%largecorpora_onshavebeenhacked

100,000aeacksanhouronUSNavyParalysisofEstoniagovernmentin2007

WorriesaboutUS,Russia,Chinapenetra_onofweb/cloudfollowingPrism

$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism

Shale gas 33% US supplies

3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil

produced than Saudi by 2020

200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years

Expect large energy and commodity

booms and busts over 30 years

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert

75% global growth in green energy is in China

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useQUEBECfromARIZONAMOSCOWfromSAHARA

SolarCells$/wae1990-2015

subsidies

PriceParity

ManagingPeakGenera_on InJune2013electricitypricesinGermanybecamenega_ve-EU150/MWhr

Beyond Compliance

do things you really believe in LifeisShort

AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabeeerfuture

BuildingaBeeerWorld

MakingBusinessMagicmeansPartnershipandCollabora9on

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

globalchange.com15millionvisitors

5millionvideoviews

http://globalchange.com