Body Level One
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Fellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School
TheFutureofAlmostEverythingmanagingriskandcrea9ngmagicforcustomers
Ins9tu9onalBlindness-beyonddata
Complexity and scale create risks
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Benchmarking is toxic to risk
management and customer service
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Panama
LawsuitswillbefarlargerthanFines
Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
Agility
Risk that 2 people in 10 have same birthday
10%
Risk that 2 people in 10 have same birthday
10%
Risk that 2 people in 23 have same birthday
Risk that 2 people in 23 have same birthday
50%
Risk that 2 people in 70 have same birthday
Risk that 2 people in 70 have same birthday
99.99%
Yet many trends changing more slowly
than people think
Cash growing - bank branches continue -
music, fashions, food - homes look the same,
where are all the robots?
Robots in Factories only 7% pa
What is the future of the global
ECONOMY
WGP2005-2014(%,constantprices)
VietnamGDP1985-2011
$3.4trillion
$2.4trillion
Reserves
One word will dominate ALL
FUTURE
The future is aboutEMOTION
REPUTATION
85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
1 billion will migrate over next 30 yearsspend on infrastructure in 30 years greater
than in all previous previous history
Science,technology
engineering,maths
MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets
ChinaandIndiadominate
STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs
Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time
Title Text Body Level One
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!63
Life expectancy will grow much
faster than forecast
1weekevery4
Repair Heart / Brain / Eyes with stem cells
Slow or no ageing is a reality
Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
No signs of getting old
Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years
Some animals do not age in normal way
TRIBES
TEAMS
GROUPS
FRIENDS
1trillionpagesamonth
People love Cities and Offices
Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based 60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)
90% all global data generated in last 2 years
Sales of canned food in Mexico store = demand for more steel tins in China
Big Data
Little Data often matters
most
Creating magic for clients often costs
NOTHING
missing you
Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? work, food,
drink, chat, party, unwind, dark, quiet, sleep, leave
Customerinsightearnsyoutherighttowhisperadvicealongthejourneyoflife
End of Marketing
Globalised+BarriersProblemofScale
VW mega platformVWMegaPla]orm-basisfor1mcars
World too small for more than:2 airline manufacturers
3 mobile operating systems10 large pharma
5 large auto companies
Multi-product assembly lines
Self-diagnosing and healing
3D scans - 3D printing
11%wageinfla_oninChinain2013-2015
NearshoringBoom
AcrossEU,10grocerscapture50%ofsales
Most online sales will be MOBILE
Loca_onMarke_ng
isnextBIGTHING
Over4000roadhauliersinEU
Goldstandard:
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Internet of Things
$12bn security and controlhome automation market by 2018
250millionwearabledevicesby2023
$20bnto$70bnby2025
1.7bnmobileusers-nobankaccount Kenya-17mcustomersusemPesa $9bnpa->33%GDP
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1.7bnphoneusersareunbanked
80% global bandwidth will be video by 2018
TELCOSbecomevideotransmieers
Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model
201020132015
TelcoBanks
Time at bank teller cut from 4 to 1 minute
Banks and Telcos need
each other to make MAGIC
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WebofThings-BigData-Cloud180bnspamemailsaday
600mnewviruses,malware,trojansayear>220mpeoplesdetailslostinsingleaeack70%largecorpora_onshavebeenhacked
100,000aeacksanhouronUSNavyParalysisofEstoniagovernmentin2007
WorriesaboutUS,Russia,Chinapenetra_onofweb/cloudfollowingPrism
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33% US supplies
3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
Expect large energy and commodity
booms and busts over 30 years
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
75% global growth in green energy is in China
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useQUEBECfromARIZONAMOSCOWfromSAHARA
SolarCells$/wae1990-2015
subsidies
PriceParity
ManagingPeakGenera_on InJune2013electricitypricesinGermanybecamenega_ve-EU150/MWhr
Beyond Compliance
do things you really believe in LifeisShort
AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabeeerfuture
BuildingaBeeerWorld
MakingBusinessMagicmeansPartnershipandCollabora9on
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com15millionvisitors
5millionvideoviews
http://globalchange.com
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