Future of Insurance and Reinsurance - global trends keynote for MS Amlin by Futurist Patrick Dixon

Body Level One

Body Level Two

Body Level Three

Body Level Four

Body Level Five Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

Fellow, Centre for Management Development London Business School

TheFutureofAlmostEverythingGlobaltrends,disrup;vetechnologiesandinsuringrisks

Ins;tu;onalBlindness-beyonddata

do things you really believe in and I believe in insurance

LifeisShort

Complexity and scale create risks

Title Text

http://images.google.fr/imgres?imgurl=www.linuxgazette.com/issue42/gm/images/radar.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.linuxgazette.com/issue42/gm/musings.html&h=432&w=576&prev=/images?q=radar+screen&svnum=10&hl=fr&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sa=N

ClicktoeditMastertextstyles

13


15

Benchmarking is toxic to risk underwriting


20

Risk management strategies often overtaken

by events World can change faster than clients can

hold a board meeting

Agility

Yet many trends changing more slowly

than people think

Cash growing - bank branches continue -

music, fashions, food - homes look the same, robots, 3D printing etc

What is the future of the global

ECONOMY

WGP(%,constantprices)

VietnamGDP1985-2011

$3.4trillion($50trillionby2020globally)

>>$2.4trillion

Reserves

One word will dominate ALL

FUTURE

The future is aboutEMOTION

The greatest asset for every financial institution is

REPUTATION

Up to 70% of sales of new convenience

stores from people who live

40% of adults in UK dont know by 4pm what they will eat for dinner tonight

85% of world population will be living in emerging

markets in 10 years

1% owns 50%

1 billion will migrate over next 30 years

Science,technologyengineering,

maths

MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets

ChinaandIndiadominate

STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs

Body Level One

Body Level Two

Body Level Three

Body Level Four

Body Level Five

1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years

Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child

1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time

Title Text Body Level One

Body Level Two

Body Level Three

Body Level Four

Body Level Five

>65%spend>65years

1billion>60by2020

Micro-surgerywilltransformhospitalcare

125,000 stents or carotid surgery a year in US

Lengthofhospitalstay

willfall10-20%by2025

250millionwearablesmartdevicesby2023

$20bnto$70bnby2025

1weekevery4

following coronary, stroke or sight loss using adult stem cells

Repair Heart / Brain / Eyes with stem cells

Pigsteethgrowninsiderats Micegrownewteethfromnervecells/gum

Grow New Teeth

Rod photoreceptors (in green) within a "mini retina" derived from human induced Pluripotent Stem Cells in the lab. Courtesy of Johns Hopkins Medicine

73

After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay

Monkeys on diet live longer

Read your genes in 2 hours for

$2000

Slow or no ageing is a reality

Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales

No signs of getting old

Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years

Some animals do not age in normal way

40 years old today - 82 projection82 + 5 (middle class) 87 + 10 (1 year in 4: 40 years)97 + 5 (therapies in first 30 years)102 + 5 (therapies in next 30 years)107 new AVERAGE life expectancyCan expect to be alive in 2082

Every year adds 3% to pension deficit

40 years old today - 82 projection82 + 5 (middle class) 87 + 10 (1 year in 4: 40 years)97 + 5 (therapies in first 30 years)102 + 5 (therapies in next 30 years)107 new AVERAGE life expectancy ?Can expect to be alive in 2082 ?


40 years old today - 82 projection82 + 5 (middle class) 87 + 10 (1 year in 4: 40 years)97 + 5 (therapies in first 30 years)102 + 5 (therapies in next 30 years)107 new AVERAGE life expectancy ??Can expect to be alive in 2082 ??


1trillionpagesamonth

People love Cities and Offices

ReproduceownimageTendtorecruitpeoplewithfamiliarname,voice,

accent,personality,culture,appearance

85%ofleadersoflargestUScorporaZonssaydiversityiskey

toinnovaZon

Forbesstudy

Diversitylinkedtohighersales,marketshareandprofits,talentrecruitment-andmoreaccurateunderwriZng

90% all global data

generated in last 2 years

BigDataandLi]leData

Big Data sharing allows shift from

Marketing to Smart Advice

Talking to customers on journey of life

Death of traditional marketing

Big Data = Pattern

Little Data = Person

missing you

Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? work, food, drink, chat,

party, unwind, dark, quiet, sleep, leave

BestforBusiness?

London New York

Globalised+BarriersIncreasingScale

VW mega platformVWMegaPla`orm-basisfor1mcars

InmanyEUnaZons,upto70%ofretailspendingisin

World too small for more than:2 airline manufacturers

3 mobile operating systems10 large pharma

5 large auto companies

With rapid growth of niche manufacturing

8%wageinflaZoninChina-partoffsetbycurrencyfall

NearshoringBoom

Since 1980, global trade has grown at twice the rate of production but now growing LESS than production

MOBILE >50% of all online sales in many

nations are using mobile

LocaZonMarkeZng

isnextBIGTHING

Over4000roadhauliersinEU

1.3bnhomedeliverede-comitemsinUKayear(+12%pa)

Internet of Things

1.5m components tracked perfectly in Airbus supply chain

$12bn security and controlhome automation market by 2018

2bn new smart home devices a year by 202027% of Internet of Things will be in homes

MobilePayment

Mobiledevicesalreadyusedtomakepaymentsofover$640bnpa-growing40%annually

40%ofKenyaseconomyisnowcarriedoutusingm-Pesapla`ormalone-e-walletlikeEZ-Cash

Most retail bandwidth will be videoFree mobile devicescalls / web / TV

201020132015

TelcoBanks

90%MicrosojR&D SalesForceR&D>$3bnpa

CLOUD

INTERNET OF THINGS + BIG DATA + CLOUD

Overwhelming CYBERATTACKS

from States or criminals

180bnspamemailsaday600mnewviruses,malware,trojansayear>220mpeoplesdetailslostinsinglea]ack70%largecorporaZonshavebeenhacked

100,000a]acksanhouronUSNavyParalysisofEstoniagovernmentin2007

WorriesaboutUS,Russia,ChinapenetraZon

$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism

Shale gas 33% US supplies

3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil

produced than Saudi by 2020

200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years

75% global growth in green energy was in China in 2014

SolarCells$/wa]1990-2015

subsidies

PriceParity

SurplusPowertoGas:13EUplants/26planned

EnergyusehashalvedperunitofproducZoninEUchemicalindustry

overlast20years

CO2 emissions stable for 24

months of global economic growth

do things you really believe in Life is Short

Beyond Compliance

AcZvelyManagedFunds-ethicalrisk

X%ac;vefundmanagersrecommendownretailfundstofamily

Y%choosetoinvestsignificantwealthinownfunds

AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabe]erfuture

BuildingaBe]erWorld

Body Level One

Body Level Two

Body Level Three

Body Level Four

Body Level Five

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

globalchange.com15millionvisitors

5millionvideoviews

http://globalchange.com

Future of Insurance and Reinsurance - global trends keynote for MS Amlin by Futurist Patrick Dixon

Business

Transcript of Future of Insurance and Reinsurance - global trends keynote for MS Amlin by Futurist Patrick Dixon