Lessons learned from initial operationalizations ...€¦ · Planetary Boundaries and the Green...

Federal Department of the Environment,Transport, Energy and Communications DETECFederal Office for the Environment FOEN

Lessons learned from initial operationalizations: Switzerland an the World

Making the Planetary Boundaries Concept Work, 24.4.2017, BerlinAndreas Hauser, Dr. Loa Buchli, Swiss FOEN, Prof. Hy Dao, Dr. Pascal Peduzzi, Unep-GRID

Economics section

Drawing by Sara Eisenegger, © FOEN

2Planetary Boundaries and the Green Economy: Switzerland | Making the Planetary Concept Work Conference Berlin, 24.4.2017Swiss Federal Office for the Environment, Andreas Hauser, Loa Buchli, UNEP-GRID / University of Geneva: Hy Dao, Pascal Peduzzi

The policy relevance of assessing footprints against Planetary Boundaries

We have time series for a greenhouse gas footprint, a biodiversity footprint, a nitrogen footprint6 but how much of a footprint would be sustainable?

Biodiversity footprint

Howmuchis safe?


Assessing footprints based on Planetary Boundaries: Results for Switzerland

4.8 109 !Climate0.16 0.3Biodiversity !


Lessons learned: transfer / communication� Approach is easy to implement, clear message

� Assessment of performance beyond mere numbers• Takes account of trend (slow / rapidly deteriorating...) • and (data) confidence

� Time perspective taken into account: shares over time / population scenarios

Clearly unsafeUnsafeSafe

Drawing by Sara Eisenegger, © FOEN


Lessons learnt: policy makingAssess national footprints against Planetary Boundaries. � Footprint perspective leads to a fundamentally different assessment than territorial perspective

� Need for action along the whole product chain!� Assessing footprints against Planetary Boundaries leads to a fundamentally different assessment of the magnitude of the need foraction: Absolute decoupling (- 1 %) is not enoughto stay within the limits of our planet!


Assessing footprints by applying the Planetary Boundaries

Dao et al. (2015), further developing on Nykvist et al. (2014) http://pb.grid.unep.ch/

(boundary translated to yearly footprint indicators)


Relevant indicators ?11

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Population trends: Country share set at one reference date, then countries have to handle the demographic changes (e.g. decreasing per capita limits in case of population increase)


Footprint databasesSwitzerland (http://pb.grid.unep.ch/)Proprietary database from the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment combining

• officially published Swiss environmental data• environmental values for exports and imports based on ecoinvent 2.0

8http://www.ecoinvent.org/


Footprint databasesWorld (http:/bluedot.world)

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http://www.exiobase.eu/Multi-Regional Environmentally Extended Input Output(MR EE IO) Database (2007)• 130 sectors and products• 30 emissions, 80 resources• 43 countries & rest of world

World Input-Output Tables (1995-2009)• 35 sectors, 59 products• Environmental accounts on energy, greenhouse gases, air pollutants, use of mineral and fossil resources, land use, water use • 40 countries & rest of the world

http://www.wiod.org

Phosphorus Losses, Nitrogen Losses Climate Change, Ocean Acidification, Land-cover Anthropisation, Biodiversity Loss


Performance

FootprintsLimits

Performance(sustainability)Scores

t CO2eqt CO2eqt CO2ppmW/m2°C

GHG emissionsCO2 emissions

CO2 concentrationsRadiative forcing

Temperature change

Carbon footprint

Footprint / Limit

Score + trend + uncertainty

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ScoresExample: Climate ChangeIndicator: GHG emissions

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The limit is calculated for the period 2015-2100 (85 years, zero emissions after 2100)At current footprint the Swiss limit is reached in 4 years


World’s regionsUNEP-GRID’s World-wide assessment (40 regions/countries):


Main lessons� Data available on an international level (e.g. Exiobase, WIOD)� Approach is feasible.� Need to “translate” the Planetary Boundaries into indicators that can be measured with footprint data� Allocation: Fundamental difference between yearly limits and limits over time� Evaluation of performances: Start with simple scores (e.g. footprint / limit), but consider also trends and uncertainties


Further development of the approach• Further develop database:spatial, thematic and temporal resolution

� take into account of regional boundaries� better understand causes and drivers

• How to handle negative limits? • Both global and national performance need to be considered for evaluating the risks and priorities


Appendix


Switzerland: Efficiency leader?

EEA (2016) «More from less»

GDP / DMC

� Score reflects to a large extent Switzerland’s high share of the third sectorMaterial Footprint (RMC)Switzerland:17 t / capitaEU-27:14 t /capitaSource: FSO (2016)


Critical footprints, relevant areasClearly unsafe

ClimateChange Ocean Acidification Biodiversity Loss Nitrogen LossesRelevant areas of consum-ption

Nutrition Housing Mobility Housing Mobility (Nutrition)

Nutrition (Housing) Nutrition (incl. animal feed)Relevant economicsectors

Construction services,Chemical products, Wholesale and retail trade, Energy sectorAgriculture and food industry

Agriculture

Cross: information technology, financial services, commodity tradingRelevant product groups

Imported electricity Animal food, coffee, cocoa, buildings, palm oil, etc.

Animal foods, hotels, restaurants


International Framework

Sustainable consumption and production patternsSDG 12.2 By 2030 achieve sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources

GrowthSDG 8.4 Improve progressively, through 2030, global resource efficiency in consumption and production and endeavour to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation


Policy entry points in SwitzerlandIndicators to measure the progress towards a green economy in Switzerland

Carbon footprintSwiss Statistics,MONET


Possible further steps� Guidance to define targets and goals for businesses and sectors� Asses national / Europe’s Footprints against the context of Planetary Boundaries� Stimulate the debate on the responsibility of countries to reduce their greenhouse gas footprint, biodiversity footprint etc.� Develop a vision for critical systems (sustainable food, housing and transportation)


1. Are Planetary Boundaries truly global ?2. Can the relevant indicators be computed for the World and for Switzerland ?3. How to allocate a fair share of the global limits to each country ?4. How to assess performances ?21


Selected indicators

• Linked to human activities (economy), e.g. GHG emissions• Might be different from Rockström & Nykvist, e.g. Land Cover• Key indicators at country scale (may be derived from subnational data, e.g. Land Cover, Biodiversity Loss)


Cumulated historical impactsCumulative emissions from fossil-fuel and cement (1870–2012) North America and Europe responsible for most cumulative emissions, but Asia growing fast Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

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Share of area? Share of World population? Rights? Responsibilities? Capacities?Past? Future?Territorial specificities ?All people equal?equivalence scales (cf. OECD) : economic needs change with household size?allow more for people below poverty / development thresholds?

Fair shares of the global limits ?1/887 (0.113%)of World pop. (2013)


Equal share principleyearly limits

� Per capita value calculated at a reference year� Fixed country limit over years� Changing per capita limit over years

Limits over time� Per capita value calculatedover a reference period� Changing country limit over years� Fixed per capita limit over years

Reference year : 2010 Reference period : 1990-2100


X 0.125% (demographic shareof Switzerlandin the World in 1990)

Climate change calculations

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“the remaining cumulative emissions (including land cover changes) for a 50% chance to stay below a 2°C increase by 2100 compared with pre-industrial level”

1473GtCO2eq2421GtCO2eq1316GtCO2eq

… in 1990 … in 2010 … in 2015/784’800 mio(pop. 2015-2100)=1.7tCO2eq/cap/year

0.52GtCO2eq3.03GtCO2eq

IPCC AR5

Scale:1 GtCO2eq =World

Scale:1 GtCO2eq =

Switzerland

Remaining budget (until 2100) …

- Swiss emissions1990-2015 (footprint)

+ Worldemissions1990-2010- Worldemissions2010-2015

/896 mio(pop. 2015-2100)=0.6tCO2eq/cap/year


Global impacts |Geospatial data

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Land Cover Anthropisation and Biodiversity Loss: GlobCover (Envisat/MERIS) + urban areas (MODIS)


Synthesis of performances BL: Biodiversity LossCC: Climate ChangeLA: Land Cover AnthropisationNL: Nitrogen Losses, OA: Ocean AcidificationPL: Phosphorus Losses (Swiss performance unknown due to lack of data).

For the four other Planetary Boundaries - Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Atmospheric Aerosol Loading, Freshwater Use and Chemical Pollution -there is no evidence of global overshoots, their global performances are considered in the green zones. The Swiss performances of these Planetary Boundaries have not been assessed.

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Lessons learned from initial operationalizations ...€¦ · Planetary Boundaries and the Green...

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