Adjunct Prof Colin D Butler Health Research Institute, University of Canberra

National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, Australian National University College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide @ColinDavdButler

LimitstoGrowth,PlanetaryBoundaries

andPlanetaryHealth

UniversityofSydney13/12/2017

“hometothedesperate”Baidoa,SomaliaCreditTylerHicks/TheNewYorkTimes“Droughtandwarheightenthreatofnotjust1famine,but4”(J.Gettleman)

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/27/world/africa/famine-somalia-nigeria-south-sudan-yemen-water.html

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Basicargument:

LimitstoGrowth,PlanetaryBoundariesandPlanetaryHealthconstitutethreegenerationsofafamilyofideas“born”in1972,2009and2015respectively.

AntecedentsincludetheworkofMalthus.

Butler,C.D.(2017)Limitstogrowth,planetaryboundariesandplanetaryhealth.CurrentOpinioninEnvironmentalSustainability Vol25.59-65

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ThomasRobert(Bob)Malthus

Muchreviled,fromhisownlifetime(1766– 1834)untiltoday

World’sfirstprofessorofpoliticaleconomy

AcknowledgedbyDarwinandWallaceintheirtheoriesofevolution

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Malthus(1798):AnEssayonthePrincipleofPopulation

“contestwasastruggleforexistence”

“asfromthelawsofournaturesomechecktopopulationmustexist”

“Theperpetualtendencyintheraceofmantoincreasebeyondthemeansofsubsistenceisoneofthegenerallawsofanimatednaturewhichwecanhavenoreasontoexpectwillchange”

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Malthusian“checks”onpopulationsize

1. Benign(e.g.delayedmarriage,prolongedlactation,contraception)

2. Famine3. Conflict4. Pandemics

} Malignant

and:migration–sometimes

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Modelledworldeconomyandenvironment

• Manyscenariosmodelledfrom1900to2100• Mostleadto“overshootandcollapse”,including“standardrun”

Widelybelievedtoforecastcollapsebyyear2000

• leadingtofalseclaimsthatitwaswrong(includingUNEP)

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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

historicaltrend(1900-70)trendestimated byTurner(1970-2010)modelledtrend byLTGstudy(standardrun)

non-renewableresourcesremaining

foodpercapita

servicespercapita

population

industrialoutputperpersonpollution

19702010

Data:GTurner

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

historicaltrend(1900-70)trendestimated byTurner(1970-2010)modelledtrend byLTGstudy(standardrun)

non-renewableresourcesremaining

foodpercapita

servicespercapita

population

industrialoutputperpersonpollution

19702010

populationdeclinefollowsmultifactorialcrisis

peakhealth?

Data:GTurner

LimitstoGrowth

CheapenergyPollution“sinks”CropyieldincreaseBiosphereintegrity

Tolerance&compassionComplexity

}} all

limited

Tainter,J.A.(1988).TheCollapseofComplexSocieties.Cambridge,CambridgeUniversityPress.

}9

From forecasting and models (1970s) to abundant data and evidence .. not sufficiently acted on by policy makers, under-appreciated within academia

1. Persistently high energy price2. Stagnant economic “growth”3. Flattened genuine progress4. Return of famines 5. Increasing civil wars 6. Numerous interactions: systemic nature7. “Health for all” a dream8. Retreat of civilization and strengthening “fortress world”

Butler, Int’l Soc Env Epidemiology, 2013

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Planetaryboundaries

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"Ourproposedframeworkbuildsonandextendsapproachesbasedonlimits-to-growth (Meadowsetal.1972,2004)”

Rockström,J.,W.Steffen,K.etal,(2009).Planetaryboundaries:exploringthesafeoperatingspaceforhumanity.EcologyandSociety 14(2).

LimitstoGrowthnotcitedintheirbetterknownpapers:

Rockström,J.,W.Steffen,K.etal(2009).Asafeoperatingspaceforhumanity.Nature 461:472-475.

Steffen,W.,K.Richardson,etal(2015).Planetaryboundaries:Guidinghumandevelopmentonachangingplanet.Science347(6223)1259855.

Planetaryboundaries

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"Ourproposedframeworkbuildsonandextendsapproachesbasedonlimits-to-growth (Meadowsetal.1972,2004)”

Rockström,J.,W.Steffen,K.etal,(2009).Planetaryboundaries:exploringthesafeoperatingspaceforhumanity.EcologyandSociety 14(2).

LimitstoGrowthnotcitedintheirbetterknownpapers:

Rockström,J.,W.Steffen,K.etal(2009).Asafeoperatingspaceforhumanity.Nature 461:472-475.

Steffen,W.,K.Richardson,etal(2015).Planetaryboundaries:Guidinghumandevelopmentonachangingplanet.Science347(6223)1259855.

Planetaryboundaries+humanhealth?

NomentionofLTGasfarasIknowotherthanmyownwok

"We do not live on the planet earth but with the life it harbours and withinthe environment that life creates"

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References

1.SteffenW,RichardsonK,Rockström J,etal.Planetaryboundaries:Guidinghumandevelopmentonachangingplanet.Science2015;347(6223):1259855.2.MalthusTR.AnEssayonthePrincipleofPopulation.London:J.Johnson;1798.3.ButlerCD.Populationtrendsandtheenvironment.In:Friis RH,ed.Praeger HandbookofEnvironmentalHealth.Westport,Connecticut:Praegar;2012:215-31.4.ButlerCD.Humancarryingcapacityandhumanhealth.PublicLibraryofScienceMedicine2004;1(3):192-4.5.AndréC,Platteau J-P.Landrelationsunderunbearablestress:RwandacaughtintheMalthusiantrap.JournalofEconomicBehaviorandOrganization1998;34(1):1–47.6.TurnerGM.AcomparisonofTheLimitstoGrowthwith30yearsofreality.GlobalEnvironmentalChange2008;18:397– 411.7.MeadowsD,MeadowsD,Randers.J,BehrensIIIW.TheLimitstoGrowth.NewYork:UniverseBooks;1972.8.Brijnath B,McMichaelAJ,ButlerCD.Rio+20:Don’tforgethealthinsustainabilitytalks.Nature2012;486:191.9.TurnerGM.IsGlobalCollapseImminent?AnUpdatedComparisonofTheLimitstoGrowthWithHistoricalData.Melbourne:MelbourneSustainableSocietyInstitute,TheUniversityofMelbourne,2014.10.ButlerCD.LimitstogrowthandconflictintheAsiaPacific.In:PearsonS,HollowayJL,Thackway RM,eds.AustralianContributionstoStrategicandMilitaryGeography:Springerinpress.11.Rockström J,SteffenW,Noone K,etal.Planetaryboundaries:exploringthesafeoperatingspaceforhumanity.EcologyandSociety2009;14(2).12.Butler,CDLimitstoGrowth,PlanetaryBoundariesandPlanetaryHealth:historyandfuturehttps://globalchangemusings.blogspot.com.au/2017/12/limits-to-growth-planetary-boundaries.html