Investor Presentation - Norbord · 7 Company Overview Top 10 Global OSB Producers Enterprise Value...
Transcript of Investor Presentation - Norbord · 7 Company Overview Top 10 Global OSB Producers Enterprise Value...
Investor PresentationJune 2019
Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information
2
Notices
• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Such statements and estimates are based on assumptions as to the future and on management’s current
expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking
information.
• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or
projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A,
and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to
differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the
material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection
as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• References to “LTM Q1 19” refer to the period beginning April 1, 2018 and ending April 6, 2019. As a result,
the financial information for LTM Q1 19 include six additional fiscal days as compared to the year ended
December 31, 2018, which may impact the comparability between periods.
Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information
3
Notices
• This presentation contains certain non-IFRS financing information, including Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA means earnings before finance costs and interest income, income taxes, depreciation and amortization and other unusual or non-recurring items. The Company believes that Adjusted EBITDA can be useful for, and is frequently used by, securities analysts, investors and other interested parties to perform comparisons of its operating performance between periods and with other companies in its industry and across different industries. In particular, AdjustedEBITDA is useful because it excludes the effect of:
– depreciation, which represents non-cash charges to earnings. Companies differ in the age and method of acquisition of productive assets, and thus the relative costs of those assets, as well as in the depreciation method (straight-line, accelerated, units of production), which can result in considerable variability in depreciation expense between companies;
– interest, which is significantly affected by external factors, including interest rates and inflation rates. Interest expense is dependent on the capital structure and credit rating of a company, while debt levels, credit ratings and, therefore, the impact of interest expense on earnings vary in significance between companies; and
– income tax expense. The tax positions of individual companies can vary because of their differing abilities to take advantage of tax benefits and the differing jurisdictions in which they transact business, with the result that their effective tax rates and tax expense can vary considerably.
• However, there are material limitations associated with making the adjustments to calculate Adjusted EBITDA and using it as a performance measure as compared to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measure. For instance, Adjusted EBITDA does not:
– include interest expense, and because the Company has borrowed money to finance its operations, interest expense is a necessary element of its cash requirements and costs and ability to generate revenue;
– include depreciation expense, and because the assets being depreciated will often have to be replaced in the future, Adjusted EBITDA does not reflect any cash requirements for such replacements; or
– include tax expense, and because the payment of taxes is part of the Company’s operations, tax expense is a necessary element of the Company’s cash requirements and costs and ability to generate revenue.
• Accordingly, Adjusted EBITDA should not be considered in isolation or construed as an alternative to earnings or other measures as determined in accordance with IFRS as an indication of the Company’s operating performance. In addition, other companies in its industry or across different industries may calculate Adjusted EBITDA differently than the Company does, limiting its usefulness as a comparative measure.
• The Company also utilizes IFRS measures to review its performance. These IFRS measures include, but are not limited to, earnings. These important IFRS measures allow management to, among other things, compare the Company’s operations with competitors on a consistent basis and understand the revenues and expenses matched to each other for the applicable reporting period. The Company believes that the use of these IFRS measures, supplemented by the use of Adjusted EBITDA, allows the Company to have a greater understanding of its performance and allows it to adapt to changing trends and business opportunities.
• Investors or potential investors are urged to review the limitations associated with the use of Adjusted EBITDA as a performance measure described above. A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to the nearest comparable IFRS measure can be found in the appendix to this presentation.
Presenters
4
Peter Wijnbergen
President & Chief Executive Officer
Robin Lampard
Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
I. Company Overview
Norbord Snapshot
• Leading manufacturer of wood-based panel products
• Largest global producer of Oriented Strand Board (OSB)
– Stated OSB capacity of 9.0 Bsf-3/8”(1)
– Stated panel capacity (including particleboard & MDF) of 9.9 Bsf-3/8”(1)
– Approximately 2,700 employees at 17 plants across the US, Canada and Europe
• Listed on the NYSE and TSX (“OSB”)
• Report in US dollars and in accordance with IFRS
• LTM Q1 2019 sales of $2.3 billion
6
Company Overview
North America
Europe
Oriented Strand Board (OSB)
Particleboard
Medium Density Fiberboard (MDF)
Furniture
Panel Capacity by Region(1)
(1) Based on stated annual capacity as of December 31, 2018.
Europe21%
Canada37%
US42%
9.9Bsf-3/8"(1)
Norbord is a Leader in the Global OSB Market
7
Company Overview
Top 10 Global OSB Producers
Enterprise Value
Source: Company filings and Bloomberg. Enterprise values as of June 14, 2019.
* Excluding OSB siding capacity
*
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Norbord Louisiana-Pacific Kronospan Georgia-Pacific Weyerhaeuser Huber Tolko KronoSwiss Martco Egger
OSB
Cap
acit
y (B
sf-3
/8")
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
West Fraser Louisiana-Pacific Norbord Canfor Corp. Interfor Western Forest Products
Ente
rpri
se V
alu
e (
$U
S m
illio
ns)
Norbord is a Significant Player in Both Key Global OSB Markets
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Company Overview
North American OSB Industry (1) European OSB Industry (1)
* Excluding OSB siding capacity.
*
29%
Louisiana-Pacific18%*Georgia-
Pacific15%
Weyer-haeuser
11%
Tolko8%
Huber8%
Martco6%
Other5%
Industry Capacity27 Bsf-3/8"
Kronospan 39%
SwissKrono 17%
10%
Egger8%
Sonae-Arauco
4%
Smartply 4%
Others17%
Industry Capacity12 Bsf-3/8"
Source: Company Documents and Other Public Filings—Installed Capacity.(1) As of April 6, 2019.
Norbord’s Wood-Based Panel Products
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Company Overview
OSB – 90% of Capacity
• Norbord’s operations include 15 OSB mills and two other plant locations in the UK producing particleboard, MDF and related value-added products
• New home construction
• Repair and remodel
• Light commercial construction
• Industrial applications
Particleboard – 6% of Capacity
• New home construction
• Repair and remodel
• Furniture
• Fixtures
MDF – 4% of Capacity
• Furniture
• Fixtures
• Mill work
Typical Uses for OSB Products
10
Company Overview
Wall Sheathing
Webstock
Flooring
Rimboard Door Header
Roof
Window Header
Garage Door Header
• OSB is an innovative, affordable and environmentally “sustainable” structural panel– Serves many of the same uses as plywood, but produced at a lower cost
• Norbord expects OSB will continue to capture market share from plywood– OSB represents 69% of total North American structural panel production– OSB represents 45% of total European structural panel production
Source: APA, January 2019
Historical North American Benchmark OSB Prices
11
Company Overview
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
YTD
-20
19
An
nu
al A
vera
ge N
ort
h C
en
tral
OSB
Pri
ceU
S$ p
er
Msf
7/1
6"
15-year average: $253
Source: Random Lengths(1) Twenty-four weeks ended June 14, 2019. We believe that the average North Central benchmark OSB prices presented above, even when unaccompanied by estimated earnings data that is not yet available, is important to
an investor’s understanding of our performance to date during the second quarter of 2019. Our results remain subject to the completion of the second quarter of 2019 on July 6, 2019. See “Forward-Looking Information.”
(1)
II. Credit Highlights
Summary Credit Highlights
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Credit Highlights
✓ Strong cash flow generation through housing market cycle
✓ Favorable long-term OSB industry fundamentals
✓ High quality asset base with low operating costs
✓ Focused customer strategy and strong customer partnerships
✓ Repositioning business to reduce earnings volatility
✓ Track record of disciplined capital allocation
✓ Robust asset coverage and strong liquidity profile
✓ Experienced management team
631
495
247
42
-60
10745
188
287
290
307
48
-23 5
58
13
106
145
921
802
295
19
-60
5
165
58
294
432
115 125
385
672
724
596
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1/19LTM
Norbord Combined
Ainsworth
Norbord (excluding Ainsworth)
Strong Operating Cash Flow Through The Cycle
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Credit Highlights
North Central Avg. Benchmark OSB Price
$369 $320 $217 $161 $172 $163 $219 $186 $271 $315 $218 $209 $269 $353 $351 $309
US Housing Starts(000s)
1,956 2,068 1,801 1,355 906 554 587 609 781 925 1,003 1,112 1,174 1,202 1,250 1,222
Total Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)
15-year average:$330 million
(1) As disclosed in Ainsworth’s historical MD&As; converted to USD using annual average exchange rate.(2) Assumes operation at LTM production levels as of April 6, 2019.
Norbord sensitivity to realized North American OSB price changes:
+$10/Msf 7/16” = +$53 million Adjusted EBITDA(2)
(1)
Favorable Long-Term OSB Industry Fundamentals
15Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA)
Credit Highlights
U.S. Housing Starts and Underlying Demand
North American OSB Demand and Capacity
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
OSB
de
man
d/c
apac
ity
(%)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
US
Ho
usi
ng
Star
ts (
mm
)
US Housing Starts Underlying Demand
High Quality Asset Base with Low Operating Costs
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Credit Highlights
North America
Europe
Oriented Strand Board (OSB)
Particleboard
Medium Density Fiberboard (MDF)
Furniture
14
15
1616
1717
1
2
3
4
5
67
12
13
1110 9
8
Mill Location Capacity (MMsf-3/8")
1. 100 Mile House British Columbia 440
2. Grande Prairie Alberta 830
3. High Level Alberta 860
4. Barwick Ontario 510
5. Bemidji Minnesota 550
6. La Sarre Quebec 500
7. Chambord Quebec 550
8. Joanna South Carolina 650
9. Cordele Georgia 1,040
10. Huguley Alabama 500
11. Guntown Mississippi 450
12. Jefferson Texas 500
13. Nacogdoches Texas 420
Total North America 7,800
14. Inverness Scotland 720
15. Genk Belgium 450
Total Europe OSB 1,170
Total OSB 8,970
16. Cowie 405
17. South Molton 160
Total Particleboard 565
16. Cowie 380
Total MDF 380
Total Panel 9,915
(1)
(1) Production of OSB at Chambord indefinitely curtailed. In addition, the Company expects to indefinitely curtail production of OSB in 100 Mile House, British Columbia, starting in August 2019.
Focused Customer Strategy Sets Norbord Apart
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Credit Highlights
Q1/19 LTM North American Shipments
• New home construction sales volume tied to US housing starts• Repair & remodel sales volume growing in step with R+R expenditures• Industrial and export sales volume growing through substitution, has more stable margins
6.5 Bsf-3/8”
Repositioning Business to Reduce Earnings Volatility
18
Credit Highlights
Q1/19 LTM Sales by Geography
(1) Exports to Asia are handled by Interex and sales are reported in the North American geographic segment. (2) Represents Norbord’s North American non-OSB business (fully divested in 2010).
• Strong operating footprint
• Growing stable margin end-uses:
– North American industrial products
– European panels
– Asia-focused exports(1)
• Provides greater diversification than North American-based competitors
• Better positioned to weather market cycles
(1)
$2.3 billionSales
58%22%
20%
63%
4%
28%
5%
Norbord shipments – 5.1 Bsf-3/8”
20041.96M US Housing Starts
20181.25M US Housing Starts
Norbord shipments – 8.3 Bsf-3/8”
NA Specialty
Diversifying Towards Stable Margin End Uses
NA Commodity & VAP
Europe
Other (2)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Capex Inverness Expansion
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Credit Highlights
Capex Investment (US$ millions)
• Three main priorities:
– Re-invest in the business– Optimize capital structure– Return surplus cash to
shareholders
• 2018 capex of $204 million
• 2019 capex includes investments to prepare Chambord, Quebec mill for restart (when warranted by customer demand) and Inverness, Scotland phase 2 project
Track Record of Disciplined Capital Allocation
(1) 2015 onwards reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.
Minimum Maintenance $25 million
(1)
20
Credit Highlights
Strong Liquidity Profile (US$ millions)
Robust Asset Coverage and Strong Liquidity Profile
(1) $245 million of committed revolving bank lines less $8 million outstanding letters of credit and guarantees drawn at quarter-end.(2) A/R Securitization program fully drawn at Q1 2019 to fund seasonal investment in operating working capital.
Focused Financial Management
Robust Asset Coverage (As of 4/6/2019)Manageable Debt Maturities (US$ millions)
• Track record of disciplined capital allocation
• Accretive acquisitions
• Low-cost capacity additions
• Divestment of non-core assets
• Deleverage on cyclical upturns
• Stable issuer credit ratings (Moody’s: Ba1, S&P: BB)
Q1 2019
Cash $ 2
Revolving Bank Lines(1) 237
A/R Securitization(2) -
Liquidity $ 239
(2)
Cash $2Restricted Cash --A/R 175Inventory 257Prepaids 10PP&E 1,425Total Tangible Assets $1,869Senior Notes $555Drawings under committed credit lines 80Coverage Ratio 2.9x
$240
$315
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
6.2
50
% S
enio
r N
ote
s
5.3
75
% S
enio
r N
ote
s
Experienced Management Team
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Credit Highlights
Name TitleYears at
CompanyPast Experience
Peter Wijnbergen President & CEO 32▪ Previously held senior sales, strategic planning and
operations positions at Norbord including SVP & COO
Robin Lampard SVP & CFO 23▪ Previously held senior finance positions at Norbord
including Treasurer
Kevin BurkeSVP, North American Operations
18▪ Previously held senior operations positions at Norbord
in both Europe and North America
Alan McMeekin SVP, Europe 10▪ Previously VP of Finance and Operations, Europe at
Norbord
Nigel Banks SVP, Corporate Services
9 ▪ Previously VP, Human Resources of LifeLabs
Mark Dubois-PhillipsSVP, Sales, Marketing & Logistics
1▪ Over 20 years of experience in the forest products
industry in North America and Asia
• Proven track record of maximizing performance in both favorable and challenging market conditions
• Senior management team averages over 17 years of industry experience
III. Financial Overview
Financial Summary
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Financial Overview
(1) Adjusted EBITDA means earnings before finance costs, income taxes, depreciation and other unusual or non-recurring items.(2) Liquidity is comprised of unused amounts under the revolving bank lines and accounts receivable securitization program and cash and cash equivalents.
(1)
(2)
(US$ millions) Year Ended December 31, LTM
2016A 2017A 2018A Q1 19A
Sales
North America $1,361 $1,747 $1,907 $1,789
Europe 405 430 517 535
Total Sales $1,766 $2,177 $2,424 $2,324
Adjusted EBITDA
North America $352 $638 $652 $519
Europe 41 41 86 89
Corporate & Other (8) (7) (14) (12)
Total Adjusted EBITDA $385 $672 $724 $596
Margin % 21.8% 30.9% 29.9% 25.6%
Earnings $183 $436 $371 $277
Liquidity $506 $592 $490 $239
Shipments (MMsf 3/8")
North America 5,888 6,066 6,484 6,532
Europe 1,779 1,867 1,825 1,885
Total Shipments 7,667 7,933 8,309 8,417
Indicative Average OSB Price
North Central ($/Msf–7/16") $269 $353 $351 $309
South East ($/Msf–7/16") 245 330 315 280
Western Canada ($/Msf–7/16") 234 326 307 255
Europe (€/m3) 233 239 294 297
29
16
2523
0
24
43
15
12
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Margin Improvement Is an Operational Priority
24
Financial Overview
(1) Measured relative to prior year at constant prices and exchange rates.(2) The benefits from richer product mix and improved productivity were offset by higher maintenance-related costs. In addition, 2018 MIP was negatively impacted by higher raw material usages and costs associated with
executing on strategic capital and sales growth initiatives. Further, the excellent ramp up of the Huguley, Alabama and Inverness, Scotland mills were excluded from 2018 MIP calculation. (3) 2015 onwards reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.
(2)
Margin Improvement Program Gains (US$ in millions)“In Control of Our Controllables”
• Margin Improvement Program (MIP) gains help offset impact of industry-wide rising input costs:– Increased productivity– Reduced overhead costs– Reduced raw material usage– Improved product mix
• MIP has delivered $331 million of margin improvements over the past 15 years
(1)
(3)
(2)
0x
3x
6x
9x
12x
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19
Strong Leverage Metrics
25
Financial Overview
Adjusted EBITDA vs Net Debt(1)
Quarterly Adj. EBITDA
(in US$ millions)
Net Debt toLTM Adj. EBITDA
0.9x
(1) Net debt for financial covenant purposes is the principal amount of long-term debt, including the current portion, bank advances and drawings under the bank lines (including letters of credit and guarantees), other liabilities classified as debt for financial covenant purposes, less cash and cash equivalents.
Credit Highlights
26
✓ Strong cash flow generation through housing market cycle
✓ Favorable long-term OSB industry fundamentals
✓ High quality asset base with low operating costs
✓ Focused customer strategy and strong customer partnerships
✓ Repositioning business to reduce earnings volatility
✓ Track record of disciplined capital allocation
✓ Robust asset coverage and strong liquidity profile
✓ Experienced management team
IV. Appendix
Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
28
Appendix
(US$ millions) Year Ended December 31, LTM
2016A 2017A 2018A Q1 19A
Earnings (loss) $183 $436 $371 $277
Add: Finance costs 52 32 37 40
Less: Interest income -- -- (4) (5)
Add: Depreciation and amortization 94 107 134 139
Add: Income tax (recovery) expense 61 81 100 59
Add: Impairment of assets -- -- 80 80
Add: Loss on disposal of assets -- 12 2 2
Add: Stock-based compensation and related costs 2 3 4 4
Add: Pre-operating costs related to Inverness project -- 1 -- --
Less: Gain on Asset Exchange (16) -- -- --
Add: Other costs incurred to achieve merger synergies 8 -- -- --
Add: Costs related to High Level fire 1 -- -- --
Adjusted EBITDA $385 $672 $724 $596
(1) Adjusted EBITDA means earnings before finance costs, income taxes, depreciation and other unusual or non-recurring items.
(1)