Inter-sectoral Production Linkages in Slovenia: An Input-Output Analysis Daniela Muhaj – Johns...
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Transcript of Inter-sectoral Production Linkages in Slovenia: An Input-Output Analysis Daniela Muhaj – Johns...
Inter-sectoral Production Linkages in Slovenia:
An Input-Output Analysis
Daniela Muhaj – Johns Hopkins UniversityUroš Geršak – Banka Slovenije
September 2015
Views and conclusions expressed in this presentation should not be taken to represent the view of Banka Slovenija.
2
Agenda
• Research Project• Data Overview• Results– Multipliers
– Key Sector
– Multiplier Product Matrix
• Key Findings• Future Research
3
Research Project
Motivation– “Data gossiping” or “data analysis”?– Network analysis, input-output tables, financial flows
Objective– Understanding the causes and effects of the financial crisis on
Slovenian enterprises from a real and financial perspective
Structure– Three part project:
• Macro-Real • Micro-Enterprise • Real-Financial
4
Data Sources
• Symmetric IO tables 2005, 2009 and 2010
• Methodology: ESA 1995 data
• Classifications CPA 2002 / Nace Rev. 1.1 (2005) CPA 2008 / Nace Rev. 2 (2009 & 2010)
• Bridge tables- Aggregated (6 industries)- By section (13 industries) - By division (60 industries / 64 industries)
5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
87
-8
Real GDP growth rates in %
Data Overview
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Data Overview
• Domestic production
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• Total output, intermediate cons., valued added
Data Overview
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Data Overview
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
4.75.9 6.8
5.1
1.3
-2.3
1.33.0
-16.3
14.4
Average growth rate per year in %
2005-20092010
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Results: Multipliers
Column1Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Trade
Business services
Other
Output multiplier
2005 1.5717 1.4799 1.9986 1.5788 1.4290 1.3491
2009 1.6298 1.6465 2.0819 1.6217 1.4093 1.3600
2010 1.5724 1.6130 2.1189 1.6256 1.4149 1.3560
Imported goods and services m.
2005 0.1915 0.4874 0.3179 0.1901 0.1054 0.1158
2009 0.1989 0.4171 0.2774 0.1815 0.1157 0.1176
2010 0.2126 0.4641 0.3016 0.1991 0.1212 0.1255
Value added multiplier
2005 0.7864 0.5020 0.6435 0.7835 0.8747 0.8386
2009 0.7709 0.5716 0.6936 0.7919 0.8659 0.8369
2010 0.7630 0.5252 0.6736 0.7750 0.8604 0.8289
• Multiplier Analysis: Output, Imports & Value Added
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Results: Key Sector
Understanding the model– Forward linkages
• Interconnection of a sector with the “upstream” sectors from which it purchases inputs
• Direction of causation in the demand-side model
– Backward linkages• Interconnection of a sector with the “downstream” sectors
to which it sells output• Direction of causation in the supply-side model
Evaluating economic connectedness – Mechanism for identifying “key” or leading sectors
• Possibility of studying the evolution of inter-sectoral connectedness
12
Results: Key Sector
• Backward linkages oriented: Construction• Forward linkages oriented: Business Services & Manufacturing
– Trade*• Weakly linkages oriented: Agriculture
13
Results: Multiplier Product Matrix
14
Results: Multiplier Product Matrix
• Visualization technique capturing structural economic changes
• Descending rank-sized hierarchies − Calculated from backward & forward linkages
• Interpretation of the diagrams− Bar height captures the strength of the inter-sectoral relationship− 2005 layout is superimposed on 2009 & 2010 landscapes
15
Results: Multiplier Product Matrix
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Results: Multiplier Product Matrix
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Results: Multiplier Product Matrix
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Results: Key Findings
• Construction sector has strong and consistent inter-sectoral linkages • Most robust backward linkages with manufacturing, business services
and trade• Respectively the top three sectors providing inputs to construction
• Manufacturing has the strongest forward linkages with construction and trade
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Results: Key Findings
• There is no key sector in Slovenia– However, construction has consistently been an important sector
• Construction activities are highly interdependent with activities of other sectors for inputs.
• Observed structural change in the Slovenian economy– Fluctuations of inter-sectoral relationships
• Sectoral production is highly sensitive to changes in other sectors’ output
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Future Research
• Consolidate the industry classification systems– Comparable results at the disaggregated level
• Complete the rest of the macro analysis– Impact analysis– Extraction method
• Incorporate Network Analysis – Visualizing the inter-sectoral linkages over time
• Constant prices data• Disaggregated data
• Expand the analysis at the enterprise micro level– Use balance sheet data for survival analysis
• Connect the real and financial effects of the crisis in Slovenia– Financial flow data and contagion analysis
Inter-sectoral Production Linkages in Slovenia:
An Input-Output Analysis
Daniela Muhaj – Johns Hopkins UniversityUroš Geršak – Banka Slovenije
September 2015
Views and conclusions expressed in this presentation should not be taken to represent the view of Banka Slovenija.