Hydrological Modelling of Kosi and Gandak Basins using ...
Transcript of Hydrological Modelling of Kosi and Gandak Basins using ...
July, 2012 2012 International SWAT Conference & Workshops
S. Dutta, Pritam Biswas, Sangita Devi, Suresh A Karth and Bimlesh kumar, Ganga River Basin Management Plan INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY GUWAHATI GUWAHATI-781039 ASSAM, INDIA
Hydrological Modelling of Kosi and Gandak Basins using SWAT Model
IIT Bombay
IIT Delhi
IIT Guwahati
IIT Kanpur
IIT Kharagpur
IIT Madras
IIT Roorkee
Ganga River Basin Environment Management Plan GRBEMP
Comprehensive co-ordinated studies would have to be conducted on the following aspects of Ganga:
• The sources and nature of the pollution. • A more rational plan for the use of the resources of the Ganga for
agriculture, animal husbandry, fisheries, forests, etc. • The possible revival of the inland water transport facilities of the
Ganga, together with the tributaries and distributaries.
The Action Plan
IITs help in effort to clean up Ganga : • To help in preparing the basin-scale plan to clean the Ganga
River and its tributaries • The joint committee comprising representatives from the IITs at
Bombay, Delhi, Guwahati, Kanpur, Kharagpur, Madras and Roorkee under ministry of environment and forests (MoEF).IIT-Kanpur monitors progress of the plan and help set up a project management board and project implementation and coordination committee.
Ganga River Basin Boundary with CWC Gauge stations
CWC gauging stations
OBJECTIVES
• To obtain the variation of water availability of these Ganga Tributaries for both monthly and annual scales
• To evaluate the model’s performance in predicting low month flow ( January to April) which are essential for e-flow analysis
• To obtain the critical calibration parameters of SWAT model for predicting the hydrological response at the scales.
Main River Basin Comes under “IIT - Guwahati Study Area”
• Gandak Basin • Burhi-Gandak Basin • Kosi Basin • Badua Basin • Bilasi Chandan • Harohar (Kiul) Basin • Kamla balan Basin • Punpun Basin
Major River Basins of Bihar
Study Basins Patna to Farakka
Geospatial dataset KOSI RIVER BASIN
Land-Use /land cover Map
Topographic Map Soil Map
Topographic Map Land use/land cover
Soil Map
GANDAK RIVER BASIN
Major hydroprojects and rainfall variation
Kosi Barrage
9 28 16 18 67
201 192
295
156 136
6 9 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov decRa
infa
ll de
pth
(mm
) Hydro-Meteorological Observation Monsoon period : May to October with peak rainfall in August month Lean flow period : Jan to April dominated by GW (long delay flow) and Snow melting runoff Flow increasing Period : May to August, dominated by SW and GW Flow Descending period: August – December, dominated by GW ( short delay flow) and SW period
Methodology
Observed Discharge Data Available
Kosi Monthly discharge from 1961 – 1991 (at Saptakosi) by Bihar State Irrigation Commission, 1994 Daily discharge from 2003 – 2006 by Altimetry Satellite
Gandak Annual from1974 – 1992 (at Lalganj), Annual from 1961 – 1992 (at Valmikinagar)
• Calibration Parameters identified for this study are • Lateral Flow Travel Time • Groundwater Delay • Alpha Base Factor • Slope length for lateral subsurface flow • Crack Flow
Model calibration for Kosi basin using Satellite altimetry observation data ( 2003 to 2006) Model validation for Kosi Basin for both low month flow and annual water yield (1961-
1991) Model validation for Gandak basin for annual yield variation
Data Availability Source Nature of data Format of data
Data required
Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
Ganga River Basin SRTM Resolution 90x90m grid Raster -
Stream Ganga River Basin WRM Gr., IITD Vector data as line. Shape
files -
Land Use
Ganga River Basin
IWMI NRSC
500x500 m resolution grid 56x56 m resolution grid and 1:2,50,000 scale
Raster -
Soil Ganga River Basin
FAO NBSSLUP
7x7 km resolution grid and 1:5 m scale 1:2,50,000 scale
Raster -
Irrigation Projects (Total # 237; Existing -186, Planned- 52)
Ganga River Basin National Dam Register
Point locations
Vector data in point shape file
Dams (#33) Operation policies
Status of Data (Hydrological modeling)*
* Data prepared by GRBEMP group of IIT Delhi and IIT Madras
Data Availability Source Nature of data Format of data Data required
Canal Network Ganga River Basin GIS Server, IITD
Location & type of canal
Vector data in point shape files
Attributes
Discharge, water level, water quality & sediment load
Outflow and Inflow Yield, Flow Duration Curve
CWC Partial Hard Copy All Stations Daily Discharge Data
Aphrodite data Ganga River Basin GIS Server, IITD
Temporal rainfall data 0.25° (1961-2006)
Vector data in point shape file
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Princeton data Ganga River Basin
GIS Server, IITD
Temporal data of Relative Humidity, Wind Speed, Temperature & Solar radiation (1° gridded data; 1948-2006)
Vector data in point shape files
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IMD data Ganga River Basin IMD
Temporal data of : Rainfall & Temperature data (0.5° gridded data; 1969 – 2005)
Vector data in point shape file
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Status of Data (Hydrological modeling- Surface water) contd..
* Data prepared by GRBEMP group of IIT Delhi and IIT Madras
Model Calibration Parameters S. No. Parameters Range Default Values Taken
1 Lateral flow travel time 0 – 180 days 0 0, 15, 30
2 Groundwater Delay 0 – 500 days 31 60, 100, 120, 150
3 Slope length for lateral subsurface flow
0 – 150 m 0 0, 50, 100, 150
4 Alpha Base Factor 0 - 1 0.048 0.048, 0.3, 0.6
5 Crack Flow Active - Inactive Inactive Both
0
1000
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7000
8000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
ALTM slope 0
slope 50 slope 100
slope 150
0
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8000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 470
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
Groundwater Delay = 120 Days
Groundwater Delay = 100 Days Groundwater Delay = 60 Days
Groundwater Delay = 150 Days Slope length for lateral subsurface flow = 0 Days
Effect of Groundwater Delay parameter
Correlation Coefficient for Different Parameter Combinations Lateral Flow Travel Time = 0 days
Slp Lenth in m\Gw Delay in days 60 100 120 150
0 0.837 0.817 0.8069 0.79459
50 0.886 0.863 0.8513 0.8359
100 0.886 0.861 0.8483 0.83204
150 0.885 0.858 0.8447 0.82771
Lateral Flow Travel Time = 15 days
Slp Lenth in m\Gw Delay in days 60 100 120 150
0 0.871 0.8564 0.84904 0.839406
50 0.8865 0.8633 0.85171 0.836224
100 0.8865 0.86 0.84734 0.830419
150 0.8861 0.8582 0.84502 0.827512
Lateral Flow Travel Time = 30 days
Slp Lenth in m\Gw Delay in days 60 100 120 150
0 0.887 0.8756 0.86993 0.862309
50 0.889 0.8662 0.85559 0.841415
100 0.887 0.861 0.84883 0.832746
150 0.886 0.8588 0.8459 0.828878
Best parameter : Lateral Flow Travel Time – 30 days, Slope Length – 50, Groundwater Delay – 60 days
0
1000
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7000
8000
Disc
harg
e in
Cum
ec
MOnth & Year
Simulated
Altimetry
Model Performance for Monthly Water Yield variation: KOSI River Basin
Findings Flow prediction during monsoon onset months : satisfactory Flow prediction between August – October : not satisfactory ( under-prediction) Lean Month Flow prediction : Satisfactory
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2 14 26 37 49 60 72 84 95
Dis
char
ge in
cum
ec
Percentage of Exceedence
January
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2 14 26 37 49 60 72 84 95
Dis
char
ge in
cum
ec
Percentage of Exceedence
Febraury
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2 14 26 37 49 60 72 84 95
Disc
harg
e in
cum
ec
Percentage of Exceedence
March
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2 14 26 37 49 60 72 84 95
Disc
harg
e in
cum
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Percentage of Exceedence
April
Flow Duration Curve analysis for low flow prediction in KOSI River Basin ( 1961-1992)
Simulated observed
Findings : under prediction in January and February, satisfactory in March and April Months
Model Performance for Annual Water Yield: KOSI River Basin(1961-1992)
01000020000300004000050000600007000080000
3 13 22 31 41 50 59 69 78 88 97Annu
al W
ater
Yie
ld
in M
CM
Probability of Exceedence
Observed
Simulated
01000020000300004000050000600007000080000
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Annu
al W
ater
Yie
ld
in M
CM
Year
Observed
Simulated
0
10
20
30
40
50
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97
Erro
r (%
)
Probability of Exceedence
Model Performance for Annual Water Yield: GANDAK River Basin
0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97
Annu
al W
ater
Yie
ld in
MCM
Probability of Exceedence
Simulated
Observed
0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
Annu
al W
ater
Yie
ld in
M
CM
Year
Observed
Simulated
0
10
20
30
40
50
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97
Erro
r (%
)
Probability of Exceedence
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Disc
harg
e in
Cum
ec
Month
10%
50%
75%
25%
Monthly Variation of Dependable Flow
GANDAK
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dis
char
ge in
Cum
ec
Month
10%
25%
50%
75%
KOSI
Conclusions and discussion
• For annual water yield, the mode predication is under-predication with 20-30% deviation. It may be attributed to error in gridded rainfall in the Himalayan region during August to October
• Low Month flow prediction: lumped calibration parameters ( ground water) are used. The sub-basin variation of these parameters will be considered.
• More detailed calibration required. For basin management plan, what if conditions need to be simulated and possible change in water availability and quantity can be assessed using the model.