International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal

Kosi Basin ProgrammeDeveloping an evidence base in the transboundary Koshi river basin to address impacts from climatic and socio-economic drivers

Garrett Kilroy, Arun Shrestha,

Sagar Bajracharya, Kiran Hunzai

Overview

• Context and planning• Preparatory phase• Characteristics and Issues in basin• Koshi programme outline• Next steps

Context of Koshi Basin

On-going relevant activities

• Third Pole Environment• Geo-PACC (CAS)• Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment (World Bank)• Ganges River Basin Management Plan (India)• Koshi basin river basin management (WECS and

WWF-Nepal)• Sacred Himalayan Landscape Strategic Plan 2006-

2016• PAPRIKA – Agence Nationale de la Research (French)• Water storage – IWMI and University of British

Columbia

Koshi River Basin

Preparatory Phase Partners

China

• Institute of Mountain Hazard & Environment (Chinese Academy of Sciences & CN-ICIMOD)

• IGNSRR (GEO-PACC), CAREERI, CIB

Nepal

• Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS)

• Department of Hydrology and Meteorology

• Tribhuvan University

Regional:

• ICIMOD

Preparatory phase: planning

1. Vision

For Koshi Basin by

ICIMOD and Partners

2. Situation Analysis

Characteristics of the Koshi, Key

Issues, & Gaps

3. Programme Choice

Priorities identified

4. Draft Programme Plan

Stakeholder and Partner Approval

6. Implementation

of Programme Plan

7. Monitoring and Evaluation

Assess Progress Revise Programme

5. Proposal Development

e.g. ESPA

Preparatory Phase

Fully Fledged Programme

Preparatory phase: activities

• Develop partnerships• Workshops and field mission• Identify key issues and areas for collaboration

– Glaciers, glacial lakes, water resources & hazards; – Biodiversity;– Land use and land cover change;– Socio-economic development and regional development.

• Collate previous and on-going work in the Koshi Basin• Develop programme in the Koshi basin• Explore funding opportunities, e.g. UK-funded ESPA: wider

partnerships, IIT-Delhi

Key Issues – (1) glaciers/water/storage/hazards

No. of Glacial lakes in Koshi(Nepal)

2001 2009

1062 599

Change between 2001 and 2009

Nos. Area

-44% 3%

Source:

Ives, Shrestha &

Mool, 2010

Different hydrological systems

1

10

100

1000

10000

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Percent of time specified discharge was

equalled or exceeded

Dis

char

ge (c

ubic

met

res/

sec)

Sun Koshi Arun Tamur Bagmati

1

10

100

1000

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Percent of time specified discharge was equalled

or exceeded

Dis

char

ge a

s pr

opor

tion

of b

asin

are

a X

1000

Sun Koshi Arun Tamur Bagmati

Data: 1962-1995, Department of Hydrology & Meteorology

Average monthly water yieldat Chatara (Saptakoshi)SWAT modelling, PRECIS

• General increase in water yield

• More increase in wet season

• Possible shift in peak month

• Large uncertainties:– Global datasets– No consideration of

future LU change– Limited hydromet

data

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wat

erY

ield

(mm

)

B2 scenario A2 scena

Source: Gosain, Shrestha & Rao (2010)

Groundwater inputs

Data: www.whymap.org

Sediments

Key Issues – (2) Biodiversity and land use/cover

Protected Areas

Hands Around Everest Project, 2003

Key Issues – (3) Socio-economic / development

Socio-economic Indicators in Nepal

Population below

Total Poverty Line

0

10

20

30

40

50

Upper KoshiDistricts

Nepal

Po

p. u

nd

er

the

To

tal P

ove

rty L

ine

(%)

1996 2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Upper KoshiDistricts

Nepal

Po

p. u

nd

er

the

No

n-fo

od

Po

vert

y Li

ne

(%

)

1996 2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

Upper KoshiDistricts

Nepal

Po

p. u

nde

r th

e F

ood

Po

verty

Lin

e (%

)

1996 2003

Population below

Food Poverty Line

Population below

Non-Food Poverty Line

National Living Standards Survey, 2003 and 2006

Draft Koshi Programme

Overall Goal:• To contribute to an evidence base on

how climatic and socio-economic drivers impact on the inter-relationships between natural and human systems to allow for the development of integrated responses to protect ecosystems and reduce poverty.

Draft Conceptual Framework

Draft Programme Work Areas

1. Coordination, integration and data management

2. Climatic, cryospheric and hydrological characterization, monitoring and modeling

3. Basin wide socio-economic sectoral analysis of water and land use: baseline and future projections

4. Water related hazard assessment and management; including sediments, GLOF, flash floods, landslide and drought

5. Biodiversity and ecosystem services; status characterization and degradation assessment

6. Evaluation of different water storage components (natural and man-made)

7. Water availability and efficiency in the agricultural sector

8. Adaptation and livelihood strategy development for impacts from climatic and socio-economic drivers

9. Development of integrated policies and strategies for governments, international donor community, NGOs and CBOs

Next Steps

• Conclusion of preparatory phase:– Final workshop Spring 2011– Joint reports– Koshi basin information system– Koshi programme finalised

• Partnership Development:– Consolidation of Chinese and Nepali partners– Development of new partners, especially India

• Exploration of funding opportunities:– UK Environmental Services for Poverty Alleviation– Research Consortium developed, Write-Shop December 2010

• Third Pole Environment: – Koshi River Basin programme will be a beneficiary and contributor

Thank you