Great plains win-win-wind strategy 100% renewable US power michael p totten april 20 2013
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Transcript of Great plains win-win-wind strategy 100% renewable US power michael p totten april 20 2013
Great Plains Thunder Express 21st Century style
2012 drought
1930s dust bowl
Great Plains aquifer hot spots increasing
2080 Temperature Rise - BAU
(no. countries)
2050 Water Supply Sustainability Index with climate impact
1930s Dust bowl - Reprisal in our future?
Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930sAgain this century, but worse
Business-as-Usual CO2 Emissions Trigger Great Plains Dust Bowlification this Century
Dallas, South Dakota 1936
Time to Think Beyond the Boxto Home on the Range
Figures of MeritGreat Plains area
1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. energy400,000 3MW wind turbines
PlaCorm footprint6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2
Total WindFarm spacing area 37,500 mi2
SLll available for farming and prairie restoraLon
90%+ (34,000 mi2)
Cost-‐free US CO2 emissions80% reduced at zero cost
95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
for the contiguous U.S. will be discussed in more detail in thenext section. If the top 10 CO2 emitting countries were orderedin terms of wind power potential, Russia would rank number 1,followed by Canada with the U.S. in the third position. There isan important difference to be emphasized, however, betweenwind power potential in the abstract and the fraction of theresource that is likely to be developed when subjected to realisticeconomic constraints. Much of the potential for wind power inRussia and Canada is located at large distances from populationcenters. Given the inevitably greater expense of establishingwind farms in remote locations and potential public oppositionto such initiatives, it would appear unlikely that these resourceswill be developed in the near term. Despite these limitations, itis clear that wind power could make a significant contribution tothe demand for electricity for the majority of the countries listedin Table 1, in particular for the 4 largest CO2 emitters, China, theU.S., Russia, and Japan. It should be noted, however, theresource for Japan is largely confined to the offshore area, 82%of the national total. To fully exploit these global resources willrequire inevitably significant investment in transmission systemscapable of delivering this power to regions of high load demand.
The electricity that could be generated potentially on a globalbasis by using wind, displayed as a function of an assumedcapacity factor cutoff on installed turbines, is presented in Fig.3 for onshore (A) and offshore (B) environments. The results inFig. 3A suggest that total current global consumption of elec-tricity could be supplied by wind while restricting installation ofland-based turbines to regions characterized by most favorablewind conditions, regions where the turbines might be expectedto function with capacity factors !53%. If the cutoff capacityfactor were lowered to 36%, the energy content of electricitygenerated by using wind with land-based turbines globally wouldbe equivalent to total current global consumption of energy in allforms. Cutoff capacity factors needed to accommodate similar
objectives with offshore resources would need to be reduced asindicated in Fig. 3B. To place these considerations in context, wewould note that capacity factors realized by turbines installed inthe U.S. in 2004 and 2005 have averaged close to 36% (18).
Wind Power Potential for the United StatesAn estimate of the electricity that could be generated for thecontiguous U.S. on a monthly basis (subject to the siting andcapacity limitations noted above) is illustrated for both onshoreand offshore environments in Fig. 4. Results presented here werecomputed by using wind data for 2006. Not surprisingly, the windpower potential for both environments is greatest in winter,peaking in January, lowest in summer, with a minimum inAugust. Onshore potential for January, according to the resultspresented in Fig. 4, exceeds that for August by a factor of 2.5: thecorresponding ratio computed for offshore locations is slightlylarger, 2.9.
Fig. 4 includes also monthly data for consumption of electricityin the U.S. during 2006. Demand for electricity exhibits abimodal variation over the course of a year with peaks in summerand winter, minima in spring and fall. Demand is greatest insummer during the air-conditioning season. Summer demandexceeds the minimum in spring/fall demand typically by between25% and 35% on a U.S. national basis depending on whethersummers are unusually warm or relatively mild. The correlationbetween the monthly averages of wind power production andelectricity consumption is negative. Very large wind powerpenetration can produce excess electricity during large parts ofthe year. This situation could allow options for the conversion ofelectricity to other energy forms. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles,for example, could take advantage of short-term excesses inelectricity system, while energy-rich chemical species such as H2could provide a means for longer-term storage.
Fig. 4. Monthly wind energy potential for the contiguous U.S. in 2006 withmonthly electricity consumption for the entire U.S.
Fig. 5. Annual onshore wind energy potential on a state-by-state basis for thecontiguous U.S. expressed in TWh (A) and as a ratio with respect to retail sales inthe states (2006) (B). For example, the potential source for North Dakota exceedscurrent total electricity retail sales in that state by a factor of 360. Data source fortotal electricity retail sales was www.eia.doe.gov.
Table 2. Annual wind energy potential onshore and offshore forthe world and the contiguous U.S.
Areas
Worldwide, PWh Contiguous U.S., PWh
No CFlimitation
20% CFlimitation
No CFlimitation
20% CFlimitation
Onshore 1,100 690 84 62Offshore 0–20 m 47 42 1.9 1.2Offshore 20–50 m 46 40 2.6 2.1Offshore 50–200 m 87 75 2.4 2.2Total 1,300 840 91 68
Analysis assumes loss of 20% and 10% of potential power for onshore andoffshore, respectively, caused by interturbine interference. Analysis assumesoffshore siting distance within 50 nm (92.6 km) of the nearest shoreline.
4 of 6 ! www.pnas.org"cgi"doi"10.1073"pnas.0904101106 Lu et al.
for comparisonU.S. total power consumption in 2012 was 5,000 TWh
US Onshore Wind Potential(TWh, billions of kWh)
10
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains =Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems
How?
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60windpower royalty $200 $0farm commodity revenues $50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income
12
13,125 mi2land disturbed by surface mining
6 mi2 plaCorm footprint 400k turbines
3,750 mi2 spacing area
>6 mi2 1 Wyoming Strip Mine
40% of U.S. electricity
100% of U.S. electricity
13
29
Chapter IV. Water Shortages and Impacts on Energy Infrastructure Today’s U.S. energy infrastructure depends heavily on the availability of water, and there is likely to be increased issues con-cerning availability and value of that water due to growth in competing demands. Most state water managers expect shortages of water over the next decade, as shown in Figure IV-1 (GAO, 2003), and water supply issues are already affecting many existing and proposed power projects as shown in Figure IV-2. In some regions, power plants have had to limit generation because of insufficient water supplies, and citizens and public officials concerned about the availability of water have opposed new high-water-use energy facilities, suggesting clear incentives for using lower water intensity designs in future energy infrastructure developments. As illustrated in Figure IV-3, total U.S. water withdrawals peaked in 1980 and have been essentially level since then. Construc-tion of large reservoirs peaked in the 1970s,
and only one large water storage project is currently under construction—the Animas LaPlata project in Colorado and New Mex-ico (GAO, 2003). In 1980, major reservoirs were full. However, since then, droughts have caused some reservoir levels to decline, particularly in the West, and water managers have had to limit water withdraw-als. Also, groundwater levels have declined substantially in many areas of the country. Compounding the uncertainty regarding supply is the lack of current data on water consumption. Steady or declining rates of water withdrawal do not necessarily imply steady or declining consumption. For example, communities have responded to water shortages, in part, by increasing water re-use for such nonpotable uses as irrigation. Diverting wastewater effluent from return flows to consumptive uses reduces the need for water withdrawal, but does not reduce the rate of water consumption.
TX
CA
MT
AZ
ID
NV
NM
COIL
OR
UT
KS
WY
IANE
SD
MN
ND
OK
FL
WI
MO
AL
WA
GA
AR
LA
MI
IN
PA
NY
NC
MS
TN
KYVA
OH
SC
ME
WV
MI VTNH
MD
NJ
MACT
DE
RI
g
AK
AK
HI
HI
HI
HI
HI
shortageStatewideRegionalLocalNoneNo response or uncertain
Figure IV-1. Survey of Likely Water Shortages over the Next Decade under Average
Conditions (GAO, 2003)
GAO Survey of Likely Water Shortages this Decade under Average Conditions
Fossil & nuclear power accounted for 41% total water use - 143
million gals/d or 52 billion gals in 2005.
100% U.S. power from wind farms would have a total water
use 95% less.
Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Wind-battery turbine spacing
Wind turbines ground footprint
Solar-battery
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to storage of the intermittent solar & wind in plug-in electric vehicles
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
offshore area
needed for 100%
Solar PV & Wind power require 30 to 60 times less land area than biomass, require 95% less water, and produce zero emissions
Potential Synergisms
“I bequeath myself to the dirt, to grow from the grass I love; If you want me again, look for me under your boot-soles.” Walt Whitman
Deep-rooted, soil-retaining, water-regenerating, carbon-storing, biodiversity rich Prairie grasslands
Restoring soil, grasslands, water and climate
Wes Jackson, The Land Institute, why native
grasses are the perennial favorite
Ted Turner, bison entrepreneur
Reviving the great migrations
Preserving the praire potholes
Great Plains: Dust Bowlification or Dollarization?ActionMapping Wind farms
for Rural Prosperity & Urban Clean Energy
EXISTING75% land farmed/ranched5% revenues of Great PlainsDust Bowlification loomingWater Aquifer deep decline
OPPORTUNE3% land in Wind Farms10+% revenues Great Plains100% US power generationDust Bowl prevention optionPrairie grasses/bison optionWater Regeneration option
Renewable Electricity Futures Study Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures
3-16
(a) Existing transmission grid representation in ReEDS
(b) New transmission estimated to be required by ReEDS by 2050 in the 80% RE-ITI scenario
Figure 3-9. Existing and new transmission required in the 80% RE-ITI scenario
Existing U.S. Transmission Grid System
Designed for Fossil, Nuclear & Hydro Power NOT Wind & Solar Power
NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012
Renewable Electricity Futures Study Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures
xlii
Figure ES-9. New transmission capacity additions and conceptual location in the 80%
RE-ITI scenario
Cost and Environmental Implications of High Renewable Electricity Futures High renewable electricity futures can result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use. Direct environmental and social implications are associated with the high renewable futures examined, including reduced electric sector air emissions and water use resulting from reduced fossil energy consumption, and increased land use competition and associated issues. At 80% renewable electricity in 2050, annual generation from both coal-fired and natural gas-fired sources was reduced by about 80%, resulting in reductions in annual greenhouse gas emissions of about 80% (on a direct combustion basis and on a full life cycle basis) and in annual power sector water use of roughly 50%. At 80% renewable electricity, gross land-use impacts associated with renewable generation facilities, storage facilities, and transmission expansion totaled less than 3% of the land area of the contiguous United States.36
The direct incremental cost associated with high renewable generation is comparable to published cost estimates of other clean energy scenarios. Improvement in the cost and performance of renewable technologies is the most impactful lever for reducing this incremental cost. The retail electricity price implications estimated for the 80%-by-2050 RE scenarios are comparable to those seen in other studies with similarly transformative electricity futures, as 36 Net land-use impacts, considering the implications of reduced conventional generation, and land-use impacts based on disrupted lands, are both expected to be smaller. As an example of the latter case, disrupted land would generally be less than 5% of gross land area for wind generation facilities.
Opportune New Transmission Links
Designed for Wind & Solar Power Expansion
NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012
Smart Integration Eliminating Oil Dependency
On the Verge of Convergences
LINKING 1 TW Smart Grid w/ 3 TW Vehicle fleet
GRIDS BUILDINGS VEHICLES
Electric vehicles with onboard battery storageand bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet (depending on battery capacity) providing operating reserves or storage for wind.
Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis SummaryPHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
ENERGY POTENTIALU.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million).
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIALA shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation).ONLY IF from higher coal generation - but none if from wind power.
Accelerating RE-powered Electric Vehicles
http://evworld.com/blogs.cfm?authorid=226&blogid=1123
Solar-charged Electric tricycles in Philippines
Electric-Powered Mobility Innovation Globally
Nearly 1/2 billion electric bikes, trikes, scooters by 2015
Source: h.p://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html
Windy Grassland regions of the World
Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009
20 Year 100% Global RE Scenario
25%/yrgrowth rate
40%/yrgrowth rate
IF RE + Deep-Dive Efficiency then 11.5 TW
WIND TURBINES - 5MW - 1% in place
SOLAR PV ROOFTOPS - .003MW - <1% in place
CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER - 300MW- <1% in place
SOLAR PV POWER PLANTS - 300MW - <1% in place
IF conventional, then 17 TW
OR
COLLABORATIVE INNOVATION NETWORKs
Ad hoc self-organized groups of Self-Motivated Citizens, geographically dispersed,
focused on accomplishing a specific goal
COINs
Spurring Emission-Free Cities by Using
Web-led COINs using smart devices to create ASSETs - Apps for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge
Leveraging the funnel of knowledge and learning-by-doing
emission-free city
COIN MAPPING Rural & Urban ASSETs
Action mappingIdentify the goal.Identify what needs doing to reach that goal.Identify actions for people to do. Identify the effective information required to complete the action.
Geospatial MappingWeb-based visualization of city ASSETS: harnessing deep efficiency savings, onsite solar, locally distributed power and microgrid network.
Tech-knowledge roadmappingWeb-accessible tool library encompassing spectrum of resources for learning, applied knowledge, capacity building, skills development, training, specialized competencies, across a myriad of relevant domains (technical, financial, policy, regulatory, communications, etc)
ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTSON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE
In collaboration with the Association for the Advancement of Sustainable Higher Education
Goal of becoming emission free
ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTSON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE
TO SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAP & MAKE EMISSION FREE COMMUNITIES
1,060 U.S. Cities as of 3/22/2013Mayors Leading the Way on Climate Protection
70% of U.S. cities with 30,000+ citizens are
signatories to the Mayors’ Climate
Protection Commitment
Documentary Production Team
Chris Tribble Michael P Totten