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Wirec 2008 Biofuels Presentation Totten 03 08
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Transcript of Wirec 2008 Biofuels Presentation Totten 03 08
WIREC Presentation March 5, 2008
byMichael Totten
Chief Advisor, Climate, Water & Ecosystem ServicesConservation [email protected]
GLOBAL BIOFUELISHNESS??
1 billion gallons/day
Amory Lovins
Seattle Mayor Greg Nichols
San Fran Mayor Gavin Newsom
Source: Amy Raskin and Saurin Shah, The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles, Ending Oil’s Stranglehold on Transportation and the Economy, June 2006, AllianceBernstein, www.calcars.org/alliance-bernstein-hybrids-june06.pdf . Siting Feng An, Pew Center for Global Change and WRI Capital Markets Research.
“T]he book’s powerful summary…argues persuasively that by 2035 we can be entirely independent of imported oil and that ‘it will cost less to displace all of the oil that the United States now uses than it will cost to buy that oil.’”
— Robert C.McFarlane (National Security Advisor to President Reagan), Wall Street Journal, 20 Dec. 2004
Eliminating USA Oil dependency
www.oilendgame.org/
$70 to $280 billion per year net savings (@ $25 to $100 per bbl)
Dept. of Defense sponsored, peer-reviewed technical report, preface by former Secretary of State George Schulz, intro by ex-Chairman, Royal Dutch Shell, Sir Mark Moody-Stuart
Fuel Efficiency Impact on USA Land Requirements for Biofuel Production
<20 mpg >100 mpg
PHEV
U.S. Biofuel Subsidies per ton CO2
Source: Doug Koplow, BIOFUELS - AT WHAT COST ?, Government support for ethanol and biodiesel in the United States : 2007 Update, One of a series of reports addressing subsidies for biofuels in selected OECD countries, The Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) of the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), Geneva, Switzerland, www.earthtracks.org/
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Low Estimate
High Estimate
$300
$240
($600)
($700)
Efficiency -$11
$65
$12
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
per b
arre
l cos
t
biodiesel truck efficiency
Cost Comparison Biodiesel vs Truck Efficiency
Amory B. Lovins et al., Winning the Oil End-Game, 2005, www.oilendgame.com/
Money-saving, Oil-reducing, land-conserving
6.4 mpg -- 17 billion gallons
265 million acresTexas + Kansas +
Oklahoma
Land required if Switching from Fossil Diesel to BioDiesel from
Soy Plantations
For all Class 8 trucks in USA
6.4 mpg -- 17 billion gallons
13 mpg – 7.6 billion gallons
19 mpg – 5 billion gallons
If Efficiency instead of biodiesel
265 80 million acres
Connecting the 980 GW Utility Gridand
The 2,700 GW of Battery Capacity in Plug-In Vehicles
PNL 2006 Analysis SummaryPHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
ENERGY POTENTIALU.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million),
73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIALA shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOxnationwide (from higher coal generation).
Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Wind-w/storage turbine spacing
Wind turbines ground footprint
Solar-w/storage
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles?
COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologies
Figures of MeritGreat Plains
1,200,000 mi2
100% U.S. electricity400,000 wind turbines
Platform footprint6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2
Total Wind farm area 37,500 mi2
Available for farming and prairie restoration
34,000 mi2
CO2 U.S. electricity sector40%
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes less than 10% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems
How?
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60windpower royalty $200 $0farm commodity revenues $50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);
Potential Synergisms
2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands --which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:
Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered
Droughts
In the USA, cities and residences cover 140 million acres.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying PV to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. We wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
1% of land area receives 300 TWy(TeraWatt-years) of solar energy.At 20% conversion efficiency Solar PV systems would yield 60 TWy – 400% more than 2005 total global energy use.
NanoSolar roll-printing process of Copper-Indium-Gallium-diSelenide (CIGS) solar cells in Calif.
Using PV to supply all US electricity and all US energy requires only 0.4% and 1.2% of US land area, respectively.
US military bases and Farm Set-Aside Land are each about 1% of US land area now.
UniSolar Roll-to-roll triple-junction amorphous Sillicon deposition plant of 30 MW annual
Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for Biofuel Production through Algae Systems
CO2
ATS
Biodiesel
Fermenter(Clostridium butylicumC. Pasteurianum, etc.)
C6H12O6 C4H9OH + CO2 + …
Biobutanol
EthanolAcetone
Lactic AcidAcetic Acid
Oil
ALGALBIOMASS
SolventExtraction
Nutrient Rich Water(Sewage, polluted river water)
+ atmospheric CO2(or power plant stack gases)
Clean waterLower N P P, higher O2 + pH
Less CO2 in atmosphere
Distillation
Transesterification
OrganicFertilizer
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923
Algae butanolbiodiesel
Corn (ethanol)
Soy (biodiesel)
Estimated Biofuel Production(gallons per acre per year)
1520
500
----
2000
----
100
Biofuel Production from ATS Biomass(50 tons per acre per year, dry)
+
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923
Small Land footprintOnly Wastewater as Feedstock
Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture.
When combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed to support the medium growth bioenergy scenarios, this will greatly increase threats to intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.
Food, Fuel, SpeciesTradeoffs?