Michael P Totten DENIN talk "Water in an Uncertain Climate Future" focusing on win-win solutions

Water in an Uncertain Climate

Future

Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and Green Technologies, Conservation International

Denin Dialogue Series

Delaware Environmental Institute

November 30, 2010

21052005

2 to 3% Annual Average

growth Gross World

Product (GWP) in 21st

Century (~10 to 20x

today’s GWP)

2105

$500 trillion GWP

~$50,000 per cap

# in poverty?

$50 trillion GWP

~$7,500 per cap

2+ billion in

poverty

$1,000 trillion GWP

~$100,000 per cap

# in poverty?

More absolute poor than any time

in human history

[alongside more wealth than ever]M

ass p

overty

Clim

ate

wie

rdin

g

Where we will be by 2100 900ppm

Par

ts p

er

Mill

ion

CO

2

Past planetary mass extinctions

triggered by high CO2 >550ppm

Oce

an

s

Acid

ifyin

g

55 million years since oceans as acidic –

business-as-usual emissions growth

threaten collapse of marine life food web

Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL

40% decline in phytoplankton – base of

the marine food web -- past 50 years

Sp

ecie

s

extin

ctio

n

Species extinction by humans

1000x natural background rate

Ecological Footprint

Map source: Jelks, H. J., S. J.

Walsh, N. M. Burkhead, S.

Contreras-Balderas, E. Díaz-

Pardo, D. A. Hendrickson, J.

Lyons, N. E. Mandrak, F.

McCormick, J. S. Nelson, S. P.

Platania, B. A. Porter, C. B.

Renaud, J. J. Schmitter-Soto, E.

B. Taylor, and M. L. Warren, Jr.

2008. Conservation status of

imperiled North American

freshwater and diadromous

fishes. Fisheries 33(8): 372–40

Decline of North American Freshwater Fishes

Fish species 8

times more

threatened

than

mammals or

birds in the

USA

37% Freshwater Fish Species Threatened

%

Sources: IUCN Red List 2009 for species threatened, and

IUCN 2000 for map

2 billion people lack safe water

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue

Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water 2008.pdf



Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach

adulthood stunted for good.






4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of

dollars in lost income to the poor






Incident Human Water Security Threat

Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river

biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010

Incident Biodiversity Threat

Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010

Threat to Human Water Security & Biodiversity

Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010

Intensive farming

and grazing

practices and

deforestation in

China have led to

more frequent dust

storms, like this

one in 2001 that

swept aerosol

particles into the

Great Lakes region

of the US, and even

left a sprinkling in

the Alps mountains

in Europe.

Increased dust in the Sahel, which can spread far out to sea (inset), has been linked to agriculture. Credit: J. Leyrer/NIOZ (photo); NASA (inset)

2 C increase

4 C increase

Direction of change in water run-off by 2060

Source: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011

369, 99-116

drier areas dry further &

wetter areas become wetter

Seasonal changes Mean Annual Run-off 2060

Source: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011

369, 99-116

Nile Ganges Murray Darling

Danube Mississippi Amazon

+2 C

+4 C

+2 C increasing

to +4 C by

2100

Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity at +4°C

William Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.

Interactions may result in societal impacts that are

greater than the sum of individual sectoral impacts

Resource

Wars &

Conflicts

Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The

Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/

Main difference between projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion

Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 TrajectoryGtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm

Based on 6 Celsius average

global temperature rise due to

greater climate sensitivity

Need to reverse CO2 emissions by 2015

and become negative CO2 by 2050 to

achieve <350 ppm

http://www.e3network.org/

Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.

Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.

>$/GDP/cap

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading

"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction

MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL

Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."

… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:

Martin Weitzman

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf

Averting catastrophes by

Greening the

Global Economy

Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too

differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3

knowledge relationships of knowledge

Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames

Natural system

Technical system

Social system

USA Water Chart 2004

45% US water use

75% US water consumption

A new water disinfector for thedeveloping world’s poor

• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection

• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3)

• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water• Reliable, Mature components• Can treat unpressurized water• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds• Low maintenance: 4x per year• No overdose risk• Fail-safe

DESIGN CRITERIA

Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor

WaterHealth Intl deviceAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,

Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-

water%202008.pdf




WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment Options






WaterHealth International

The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.






Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of

our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of

operating and maintaining the equipment and facility.

Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus

creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities

for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water

to outlying areas.

And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user

fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.

WaterHealth International






Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go to

irrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigation

can waste as much as 80% of the water.

Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies and

artificially low water prices, often unconnected to

the amount of water used.

Drip irrigation systems for water intensive crops

such as cotton can mean water savings of up to

80% compared to conventional flood irrigation

systems, but these techniques are out of reach

for most small farmers.

Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% of

the world‟s irrigated area.

Soft Water Path

More productive, Less cost, Less damage

Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of the

Planet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/

The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500

trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually

Immense Water Waste

WWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003

Hoekstra, A.Y. (2008) Measuring your water footprint: What’s next in water strategy, Leading Perspectives, Summer 2008, pp. 12-13, 19, http://www.waterfootprint.org/?page=files/CorporateWaterFootprints.

http://www.waterfootprint.org/?page=files/CorporateWaterFootprints

Energy/Water Integration Benefits

during Drought Periods

Source: Andrew Belden, Priscilla Cole, Holly Conte et al. 2008. Integrated Policy and Planning for Water and Energy,

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Univ. of Delaware.

1 4 5 38

552 541

784

1022

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

(relative to wind power=1)

Water consumption per kWh100,000+

Green Power or

Megadamus

negavitae?

Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions

Tucuruí dam, Brazil

St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience

50: 766–75,

Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas

Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International

Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004

DAMReservoir

Area

(km2)

Generating

Capacity

(MW)

km2/

MW

Emissions:

Hydro

(MtCO2-

eq/yr)

Emissions:

CC Gas

(MtCO2-

eq/yr)

Emissions

Ratio

Hydro/Gas

Tucuruí 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4

Curuá-

Una72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5

Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58

The water requirements of energy

derived from biomass are about 70 to

400 times more than that of other energy

carriers such as fossil fuels, wind, and

solar. More than 90% of the water

needed is used in the production of the

feedstock.

What about Biofuels?

Source: Gerbens-Leenes, P.W., A. Hoekstra, Th. van der Meer. 2008. Water footprint of bio-energy and other primary

energy carriers. Value of Water Research Report Series No. 29. UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands..

Projections of crop water use and

irrigation withdrawals for bio-energy

Source: De Fraiture, C. & Berndes, G. 2009. Biofuels and water. Pages 139-153 in R.W. Howarth and S. Bringezu (Eds.)

Biofuels: Environmental Consequences and Interactions with Changing Land Use. Proceedings of the Scientific Committee

on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) International Biofuels Project Rapid Assessment, 22-25 September 2008,

Gummersbach, Germany. Ithaca NY: Cornell University. http://cip.cornell.edu/biofuels/) .

http://cip.cornell.edu/biofuels/

http://cip.cornell.edu/biofuels/

By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land required for agriculture.

800 MILLION HA OF ADDITIONAL LAND FOR MEDIUM GROWTH BIOFUEL SCENARIOS.

Intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats under constant threat.

Food, Fuel, Species

Tradeoffs?

Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-w/storage turbine spacing

Wind turbines ground footprint

Solar-w/storage

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,

2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles?

Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologies

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –

1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream

A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere

worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never

failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility

afflicting every energy and power source used in driving

economic activity

SUN FUSION PHOTONS

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.

Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by

applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and

in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.

Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!

90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities.

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Cleaning Up

Brownfield

Sites w/

PV solar

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90%

total US electricity from brownfields

http://www.nrel.gov/

SunSlate Building-Integrated

Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial

building in Switzerland

Material

Replaced

Economic

MeasureBeijing Shanghai

Polished

Stone

NPV ($)

BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$18,586

2.33

1

+$14,237

2.14

1

Aluminum

NPV ($)

BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$15,373

1.89

2

+$11,024

1.70

2

Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)

& Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV

(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and

Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

China Economics of Commercial BIPV

Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

http://www.udel.edu/ceep/

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials

BIPV is so economically attractive because it

captures both energy savings and savings from

displacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:

Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Economics of Commercial BIPVChina Economics of Commercial BIPV

http://www.nrel.gov/

Municipal Solar Financing – Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing

MW

Compared to:Wind power 121,000 MWNuclear power 350,000 MWHydro power 770,000 MWNatural Gas power 1 million MWCoal power 2 million MW

Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008

40% annual growth rateDoubling <22 months

40% annual growth rate through 2030 could provide twice current

total world energy use

2009

21GW

[158,000 in 2009]

2069

Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19

Year

Meg

aw

att

s

2000 20692009 2021 2033 2045 2057


0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19

Year

Meg

aw

att

s

2000 21092009 2029 2049 2069 2089

Equal to total world consumption in 2009

59

TW

by

2075

59

TW

by

2119

What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?



2109

2089

Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plug‐in Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University,

[email protected] , http://Solar.gwu.edu/

mailto:[email protected]

http://solar.gwu.edu/

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters

Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis

Solar power beats thermal plants within their

construction lead time—at zero carbon price

http://www.rmi.org/

1

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 2

PV NUCLEAR

Billion $ 2008 constant

Civilian Nuclear Power (1948 – 2009)

vs.

Solar Photovoltaics (1975-2009)

$4.2

$85

Federal Research & Development Funds

Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.

GIS Mapping the Solar

Potential of Urban Rooftops

100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,

WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this Century

Solar smart poly-grids

Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy

provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based

on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with

administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions

Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.

New York

California

USA minus CA & NYPer Capital

Electricity

Consumption

165 GW

Coal

Power

Plants

Californian‟s have

net savings of

$1,000 per family

[EPPs]

For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from

revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants

California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting

lower cost efficiency over new power plants or

hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.

California signed MOUs with Provinces in China

to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner, California Energy

Commission, (916) 654-4930, [email protected] , http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html


http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html

Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the

incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is $66-96 billion per year between 2010–2020 for

developing countries and $48–60 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or

about half the $258 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

Breakdown by abatement type:

• 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry & agriculture)

• 6 Gt energy efficiency

• 4 Gt low carbon energy supply

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

ηeta

SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation

Universal symbol for Efficiency

The best thing

about low-

hanging fruit

is that it keeps

growing back.

Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable

90% cost savings

ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

end-use

efficiency

CCS

Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh)

US current

average


How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity


cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

2¢ 50

33

25

end-use

efficiency



cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

2¢

end-use

efficiency

47

32

23

1¢: 93 kg CO2/$

Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced

per dollar spent on electrical services

THANK

YOU!

Michael TottenConservation [email protected]

Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off

Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for

Biofuel Production through Algae Systems

Mississippi River Delta

Yangtze River Pearl River

Small Land footprintOnly Wastewater as Feedstock

Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs

Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923


CO2

ATS

Biodiesel

Fermenter(Clostridium butylicumC. Pasteurianum, etc.)

C6H12O6 C4H9OH + CO2 + …

Biobutanol

EthanolAcetone

Lactic AcidAcetic Acid

Oil

ALGALBIOMASS

SolventExtraction

Nutrient Rich Water(Sewage, polluted river water)

+ atmospheric CO2(or power plant stack gases)

Clean waterLower N P P, higher O2 + pH

Less CO2 in atmosphere

Transesterification

OrganicFertilizer



Algae

butanol

biodiesel

Corn (ethanol)

Soy (biodiesel)

Estimated Biofuel Production

(gallons per acre or ha per year)

1520

500

----

2000

----

100

+


[3,770 gal/ha/yr][5,000 gal/ha/yr]

[1,250 gal/ha/yr]

[250 gal/ha/yr]

Biofuel Production from Algal

Turf Scrubber Biomass(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)


Figures of Merit

Great Plains area1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity400,000 3MW wind turbines

Platform footprint6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2

Total WindFarm spacing area

37,500 mi2

Still available for farming and prairie restoration

90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector40% USA total GHG emissions

95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,

South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains

= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60

windpower royalty $200 $0

farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of

Rural Farm and Ranch Income

Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits

http://www.nci.org/T

Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930sAgain this century?

Michael P Totten DENIN talk "Water in an Uncertain Climate Future" focusing on win-win solutions

Education

Transcript of Michael P Totten DENIN talk "Water in an Uncertain Climate Future" focusing on win-win solutions