Going Up for the Rebound...Going Up for the Rebound On Behalf of ICSC First Pitch Historic and...
Transcript of Going Up for the Rebound...Going Up for the Rebound On Behalf of ICSC First Pitch Historic and...
By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc.
September 23, 2013
Going Up for the Rebound
On Behalf of
ICSC
First Pitch
Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014*
Source: International Monetary Fund
*2013-2014 data are projections
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5.0% 4.6%
5.3% 5.4%
2.8%
-0.6%
5.2%
4.0%
3.2% 3.1%
3.8%
An
nu
al
% C
ha
ng
e
Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries Estimated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available nations)
Source: IMF
Rank Country Region % Rank Country Region %
1 South Sudan Africa 32.1 166 Barbados Caribbean 0.5
2 Libya Middle East 20.2 167 Bosnia and Herzegovina Eastern Europe 0.5
3 Sierra Leone Africa 17.1 168 Grenada Caribbean 0.5
4 Mongolia Asia 14.0 169 Czech Republic Europe 0.3
5 Paraguay South America 11.0 170 Belgium Europe 0.2
6 Timor-Leste Southeast Asia 10.0 171 Venezuela South America 0.1
7 Iraq Middle East 9.0 172 Luxembourg Europe 0.1
7 Panama Central America 9.0 173 Swaziland Africa 0.0
9 The Gambia Africa 8.9 174 Hungary Europe 0.0
10 Mozambique Africa 8.4 175 France Europe -0.1
11 Dem. Rep. of the Congo Africa 8.3 176 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.2
12 Chad Africa 8.1 177 Netherlands Europe -0.5
13 China Asia 8.0 178 Islamic Republic of Iran Middle East -1.3
13 Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 8.0 179 Italy Europe -1.5
13 Côte d'Ivoire Africa 8.0 180 Spain Europe -1.6
16 Zambia Africa 7.8 181 Slovenia Eastern Europe -2.0
17 Turkmenistan Central Asia 7.7 182 Equatorial Guinea Africa -2.1
18 Rwanda Africa 7.6 183 Portugal Europe -2.3
19 Liberia Africa 7.5 184 San Marino Europe -3.5
20 Kyrgyz Republic Central Asia 7.4 185 Greece Europe -4.2
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2013 Projected
2.9%
2.5%
3.0%
3.0%
5.6%
7.8%
6.9%
2.5%
2.2%
5.1%
5.0%
1.7%
1.7%
0.9%
2.0%
-1.6%
-1.8%
0.3%
-0.2%
-0.6% 1.2%
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
MexicoBrazil
Latin America and CaribbeanMiddle East and North Africa
IndiaChina
Developing AsiaRussia
Central/eastern EuropeSub-Saharan Africa
Emerging/developing countriesUnited States
CanadaUnited Kingdom
JapanSpain
ItalyGermany
FranceEuro area
Advanced economies
Annual % Change
Source: International Monetary Fund
Debt by Selected Country 2012
0 50 100 150 200 250
Saudi Arabia
Russia
China
Indonesia
South Africa
Mexico
Argentina
Brazil
India
Germany
Canada
United Kingdom
France
Spain
United States
Italy
Japan
General Government Gross Debt in Percent of GDP
Source: IMF
Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth
Rank Exchange Index % Change
1 NYSE Group DJI A 5.5%
2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -1.8%
3 London SE FTSE 100 -5.6%
12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market Index -7.8%
9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -9.2%
8 Bolsa De Medrid IGBM -14.6%
6 Frankfurt SE DAX -14.7%
5 Euronext CAC 40 -17.0%
4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 -17.3%
11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -20.0%
7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -21.7%
10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB -25.2%
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2012 Growth
Rank Exchange Index % Change
6 Frankfurt SE DAX 29.1% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 22.9% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 22.9% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 15.9% 5 Euronext CAC 40 15.2%
12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market Index 14.9% 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB 7.8% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 7.3% 3 London SE FTSE 100 5.8% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 4.0% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite 3.2% 8 Bolsa De Madrid IBEX 35 -4.7%
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Rank Exchange Index % Change
4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 31.3% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 19.3% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 16.7% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 15.1% 5 Euronext CAC 40 13.3% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 10.2% 3 London SE FTSE 100 10.2% 10 BorsaItaliana FTSE MIB 8.6% 8 Bolsa De Madrid Madrid General 8.0% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 2.4% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -0.6% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -8.8%
Top 12 Stock Exchanges Year to date Growth Thru 8/16/13
S&P Select Sector Performance 2012
Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Utilities
Energy
Consumer Staples
Materials
Industrials
Technology
Health Care
Consumer Discretionary
Financial
-0.7%
0.3%
8.0%
8.5%
9.4%
11.7%
14.2%
19.9%
23.5%
12-month percent change
Retail Property Clock Q2 2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
San Diego, Tampa, Los Angeles,
Orange County
16 Jones Lang LaSalle • Retail Outlook • United States • Q2 2013
Reading the clock
The Jones Lang LaSalle retail property clock demonstrates where
each market sits within its real estate cycle. Markets generally move
clockwise around the clock, with markets on the left side of the clock
generally landlord-favorable and markets on the right side generally
tenant-favorable.
More than half of the markets have moved to landlord-favorable,
as rents gradually head upward and vacancy continues to contract.
Chicago, DC, Atlanta, Orlando, San Diego, Los Angeles, Tampa and
Orange County are in a “bottoming market,” evidenced by slowing
rent declines and very little new construction. Dallas, Honolulu, Fort
Lauderdale, Boston, Palm Beach, Seattle, Houston, Miami, New York
City and San Francisco are in a rising market.
Retail property clock
Peaking market Falling market
Rising market Bottoming market
Chicago, Washington DC
New York City, Houston Boston, San Diego, Tampa, Los Angeles,
Orange CountyDallas, Fort Lauderdale,
Honolulu, Boston, Seattle,
Palm Beach,
Atlanta, OrlandoSan Francisco, MiamiSan Francisco, Miami
Chicago, Washington D.C.
Atlanta, Orlando
Dallas, Fort Lauderdale,
Honolulu, Boston, Seattle,
Palm Beach
New York City, Houston
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1.6%
4.0% 4.1% 4.9%
6.3% 6.8% 7.0% 7.4% 7.4%
8.8% 9.3% 9.3% 9.5%
11.0% 11.9% 11.9%
12.4%
14.5%
Shopping Center Vacancy Rates for Select Areas Q2 2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
*Washington D.C. Q2 Net Absorption: -25,430 sf YTD Net Absorption: -2,281,339 sf
Second Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations Earnings per Share
Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s
Symbol Q2 2012 Q2 2013
Estimated Q2 2013
Reported Surprise Symbol Q2 2012
Q2 2013 Estimated
Q2 2013 Reported
Surprise
COF $2.20 $1.74 $2.13 $0.39 GE $0.38 $0.35 $0.36 $0.01
BTU $0.73 ($0.05) $0.33 $0.38 VZ $0.64 $0.72 $0.73 $0.01
VFC $1.11 $1.17 $1.27 $0.10 CMG $2.56 $2.81 $2.82 $0.01
YHOO $0.27 $0.26 $0.35 $0.09 COH $0.86 $0.89 $0.89 $0.00
UTX $1.58 $1.57 $1.65 $0.08 MMM $1.66 $1.71 $1.71 $0.00
HON $1.14 $1.21 $1.28 $0.07 UPS $1.15 $1.14 $1.13 ($0.01)
XRX $0.26 $0.24 $0.27 $0.03 MCD $1.32 $1.40 $1.38 ($0.02)
STI $0.50 $0.66 $0.68 $0.02 TXN $0.44 $0.44 $0.42 ($0.02)
AMD $0.05 ($0.12) ($0.10) $0.02 MSFT ($0.05) $0.74 $0.59 ($0.15)
DD $1.48 $1.27 $1.28 $0.01 FCX $0.80 $0.46 $0.22 ($0.24)
DOW $0.55 $0.63 $0.64 $0.01 CAT $2.54 $1.70 $1.45 ($0.25)
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index April 2008 – August 2013
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
Ap
r-0
8
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
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Ap
r-0
9
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
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Ap
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Jul-
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Oct
-10
Jan
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Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
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Ap
r-13
Jul-
13
S&P 500 FRB Credit Reserve
$Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 index depicted in orange
Source: Moody’s Economy
Recession Watch as of September 2013
Industrial Production March 2001 through July 2013
Source: Federal Reserve
The industrial production index measures the real output of the
manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.
80
85
90
95
100
105M
ar-0
1Ju
l-0
1N
ov-
01
Mar
-02
Jul-
02
No
v-0
2M
ar-0
3Ju
l-0
3N
ov-
03
Mar
-04
Jul-
04
No
v-0
4M
ar-0
5Ju
l-0
5N
ov-
05
Mar
-06
Jul-
06
No
v-0
6M
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7Ju
l-0
7N
ov-
07
Mar
-08
Jul-
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No
v-0
8M
ar-0
9Ju
l-0
9N
ov-
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Mar
-10
Jul-
10N
ov-
10M
ar-1
1Ju
l-11
No
v-11
Mar
-12
Jul-
12N
ov-
12M
ar-1
3Ju
l-13
Ind
ex
(20
07
= 1
00
)
(Base year: 2007)
Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2013Q2
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%19
90
Q1
199
0Q
4
199
1Q3
199
2Q2
199
3Q1
199
3Q4
199
4Q
3
199
5Q2
199
6Q
1
199
6Q
4
199
7Q3
199
8Q
2
199
9Q
1
199
9Q
4
200
0Q
3
200
1Q2
200
2Q1
200
2Q4
200
3Q3
200
4Q
2
200
5Q1
200
5Q4
200
6Q
3
200
7Q2
200
8Q
1
200
8Q
4
200
9Q
3
2010
Q2
2011
Q1
2011
Q4
2012
Q3
2013
Q2
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
fro
m P
rece
din
g P
eri
od
(S
AA
R)
2013Q2: 2.5%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q2 2012 – Q2 2013
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Personal Consumption Government Spending Net Exports Gross Investment
1.3
0.1 0.1
-0.2
1.2
0.7
0.0
1.0 1.1
-1.3
0.7
-0.4
1.5
-0.8
-0.3
0.7
1.2
-0.2
0.0
1.5
SA
AR
(%
)
Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13
Red Card/ Pink Slip
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Jan-0
2
Jul-
02
Jan-0
3
Jul-
03
Jan-0
4
Jul-
04
Jan-0
5
Jul-
05
Jan-0
6
Jul-
06
Jan-0
7
Jul-
07
Jan-0
8
Jul-
08
Jan-0
9
Jul-
09
Jan-1
0
Jul-
10
Jan-1
1
Jul-
11
Jan-1
2
Jul-
12
Jan-1
3
Jul-
13
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through August 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
August 2013: +169K
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector August 2012 v. August 2013
-94
1
20
28
45
108
168
375
424
517
614
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Government
Information
Manufacturing
Mining and Logging
Other Services
Financial Activities
Construction
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Thousands, SA
All told 2,206 K Jobs gained
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Dec
-07
Feb
-08
Ap
r-0
8
Jun
-08
Au
g-0
8
Oct
-08
Dec
-08
Feb
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Jun
-09
Au
g-0
9
Oct
-09
Dec
-09
Feb
-10
Ap
r-10
Jun
-10
Au
g-1
0
Oct
-10
Dec
-10
Feb
-11
Ap
r-11
Jun
-11
Au
g-1
1
Oct
-11
Dec
-11
Feb
-12
Ap
r-12
Jun
-12
Au
g-1
2
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Full-time
Part-time
Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-time v. Part-time December 2007 – August 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
Full-time: - 5.40 million Part-time: +3.25 million
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.7%
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) July 2012 v. July 2013 Percent Change
Rank State % Rank State % Rank State %
1 Utah 3.2 17 Iowa 1.7 35 Hawaii 1
2 Arizona 3.1 17 Michigan 1.7 35 Illinois 1
3 Georgia 2.8 17 North Carolina 1.7 35 Kentucky 1
4 Colorado 2.7 17 Oregon 1.7 35 New Mexico 1
4 Idaho 2.7 22 California 1.6 39 Alabama 0.9
4 North Dakota 2.7 23 Maryland 1.5 39 New York 0.9
4 Texas 2.7 23 Vermont 1.5 39 Wisconsin 0.9
8 Washington 2.3 25 Connecticut 1.4 39 Wyoming 0.9
9 Mississippi 2.2 25 Virginia 1.4 43 Maine 0.8
10 Minnesota 2 27 Nevada 1.3 43 West Virginia 0.8
10 South Carolina 2 28 Arkansas 1.2 45 Nebraska 0.7
12 Florida 1.9 28 Kansas 1.2 45 Ohio 0.7
12 Indiana 1.9 28 Louisiana 1.2 47 Oklahoma 0.6
12 Montana 1.9 28 Massachusetts 1.2 48 District of Columbia 0.5
12 New Jersey 1.9 28 Tennessee 1.2 48 Pennsylvania 0.5
16 Missouri 1.8 33 New Hampshire 1.1 50 Rhode Island 0.2
17 Delaware 1.7 33 South Dakota 1.1 51 Alaska -0.5
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.4%
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) July 2013
Rank State Rate Rank State Rate Rank State Rate
1 North Dakota 3 18 Texas 6.5 35 Arizona 8
2 South Dakota 3.9 19 Idaho 6.6 35 Oregon 8
3 Nebraska 4.2 20 Wisconsin 6.8 37 Connecticut 8.1
4 Hawaii 4.5 21 Maine 6.9 37 South Carolina 8.1
5 Utah 4.6 21 New Mexico 6.9 39 Indiana 8.4
5 Vermont 4.6 21 Washington 6.9 40 Kentucky 8.5
5 Wyoming 4.6 24 Louisiana 7 40 Mississippi 8.5
8 Iowa 4.8 25 Colorado 7.1 40 Tennessee 8.5
9 New Hampshire 5.1 25 Florida 7.1 43 District of Columbia 8.6
10 Minnesota 5.2 25 Maryland 7.1 43 New Jersey 8.6
11 Montana 5.3 25 Missouri 7.1 45 California 8.7
11 Oklahoma 5.3 29 Massachusetts 7.2 46 Georgia 8.8
13 Virginia 5.7 29 Ohio 7.2 46 Michigan 8.8
14 Kansas 5.9 31 Arkansas 7.4 48 North Carolina 8.9
15 West Virginia 6.2 31 Delaware 7.4 48 Rhode Island 8.9
16 Alabama 6.3 33 New York 7.5 50 Illinois 9.2
16 Alaska 6.3 33 Pennsylvania 7.5 51 Nevada 9.5
Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) July 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.9 10
Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.5
2
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area* 5.7 12
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.8
3
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8 13
St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area1 7.9
4
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.4 14
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8
5
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5 15
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.4
6
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 6.6 16
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.6
7
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.9 17
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.6
7
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.9 18
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.8
9
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.3 19
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 10.4
10
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.5 20
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 11
*D.C. MSA Employment July 2013 vs. July 2012: +50.6K; +1.7%
Put me in, Coach
Aug-13 81.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
200
5
200
7
Feb
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Ap
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8
Jun
-08
Au
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Dec
-08
Feb
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Ap
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9
Jun
-09
Au
g-0
9
Oct
-09
Dec
-09
Feb
-10
Ap
r-10
Jun
-10
Au
g-1
0
Oct
-10
Dec
-10
Feb
-11
Ap
r-11
Jun
-11
Au
g-1
1
Oct
-11
Dec
-11
Feb
-12
Ap
r-12
Jun
-12
Au
g-1
2
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2005 – August 2013
Source: Conference Board
U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales January 2002 through July 2013
Source: Census Bureau
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%Ja
n-0
1A
pr-
01
Jul-
01
Oct
-01
Jan
-02
Ap
r-0
2Ju
l-0
2O
ct-0
2Ja
n-0
3A
pr-
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Jul-
03
Oct
-03
Jan
-04
Ap
r-0
4Ju
l-0
4O
ct-0
4Ja
n-0
5A
pr-
05
Jul-
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Oct
-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-0
6Ju
l-0
6O
ct-0
6Ja
n-0
7A
pr-
07
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8Ju
l-0
8O
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8Ja
n-0
9A
pr-
09
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Jul-
10O
ct-1
0Ja
n-1
1A
pr-
11Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
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Jul-
12O
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2Ja
n-1
3A
pr-
13Ju
l-13
Jul-13 5.40%
Ye
ar
to Y
ea
r %
ch
an
ge
-0.40%
1.10%
1.40%
2.30%
2.90%
3.30%
3.80%
4.20%
4.90%
5.80%
7.90%
8.80%
11.80%
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
Electronics & Appliance Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores
Furniture & Home Furn. Stores
Food & Beverage Stores
Food Services & Drinking Places
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
Gasoline Stations
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers
Internet, etc. Retailers
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
12-month % change
Sales Growth by Type of Business July 2012 v. July 2013*
Source: Census Bureau
*July 2013 advanced estimate
15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through August 2013
Source: Freddie Mac
3.49%
4.46%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%Ja
n-9
5Ju
l-9
5Ja
n-9
6Ju
l-9
6Ja
n-9
7Ju
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7Ja
n-9
8Ju
l-9
8Ja
n-9
9Ju
l-9
9Ja
n-0
0Ju
l-0
0Ja
n-0
1Jul-01
Ja
n-0
2Ju
l-0
2Ja
n-0
3Ju
l-0
3Ja
n-0
4Ju
l-0
4Ja
n-0
5Ju
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5Ja
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6Ju
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6Ja
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7Ju
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7Ja
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8Jul-08
Ja
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9Ju
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9Ja
n-1
0Ju
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0Ja
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1Ju
l-1
1Ja
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2Ju
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3Ju
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3
Ra
te
15-yr 30-yr
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
3.3%
5.7% 6.7% 7.3% 8.0%
9.4%
12.1%
14.8% 16.4%
19.0% 19.9%
24.5% 24.9%
12-M
on
th %
Ch
ange
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros June 2013, 12-Month Percentage Change
Source: Standard & Poor’s
National Vehicle Sales June 2004 through August 2013 (SAAR)
Source: Autodata Corp.
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jun
-04
Oct
-04
Feb
-05
Jun
-05
Oct
-05
Feb
-06
Jun
-06
Oct
-06
Feb
-07
Jun
-07
Oct
-07
Feb
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Jun
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Oct
-08
Feb
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Jun
-09
Oct
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Feb
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Jun
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Feb
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Jun
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Oct
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Feb
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Ve
hic
le S
ale
s (m
illi
on
s)
GM Ford Chrysler Honda Toyota Nissan Others
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through July 2013
Source: Conference Board
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%A
ug
-07
Oct
-07
Dec
-07
Feb
-08
Ap
r-0
8Ju
n-0
8A
ug
-08
Oct
-08
Dec
-08
Feb
-09
Ap
r-0
9Ju
n-0
9A
ug
-09
Oct
-09
Dec
-09
Feb
-10
Ap
r-10
Jun
-10
Au
g-1
0O
ct-1
0D
ec-1
0F
eb-1
1A
pr-
11Ju
n-1
1A
ug
-11
Oct
-11
Dec
-11
Feb
-12
Ap
r-12
Jun
-12
Au
g-1
2O
ct-1
2D
ec-1
2F
eb-1
3A
pr-
13Ju
n-1
3
On
e-m
on
th P
erc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
July 2013 = 96.0 where
2004=100
Fourth Quarter
• As predicted, first half of year was quite soft in terms of economic expansion as sequestration and tax hikes make their mark;
• Second half of year should be better, with growing likely to average a shade above 2 percent;.
• Many headwinds remain and the recovery could easily falter;
• Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe;
• Maryland has held its own to date, but there are major discrepancies between the household survey and the establishment survey – one of them is probably wrong; and
• We are an increasingly part-time nation – that looks like a problem.
Thank You
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