Global Challenges, A Sneak Peek Into the Future Giorgio SPAGNOL_0

7/23/2019 Global Challenges, A Sneak Peek Into the Future Giorgio SPAGNOL_0

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ACADEMIA DIPLOMATICA EUROPAEA

INSTITUT EUROPEN DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES

WORKINGPAPER15-2014

GLOBAL CHALLENGES:a sna! "! #n$% $& '($()

Ma*%) Gn)a+ G#%),#% SPAGNOLMember of IERI

Member of International Institute of Humanitarian Law (IIHL)

Former European Union Director of Operations (EUDO)

Former Force Readiness Director (N!O)

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* Institut Europ+en des Relations Internationales

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Institut Europ+en des Relations Internationales

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GLOBAL CHALLENGES:a sna! "! #n$% $& '($()

Has t2e world a bri32t future to looA forward toB LooAin3 a2ead can resemble writin3

science fiction but a balanced realism can 2elp a lot in suc2 attempt6

!2ere is, in fact, a reco3nition on t2e part of 3o0ernments, international or3aniCations, and

t2e pri0ate sector of t2e need to de0elop a capacit for foresi32t in order to identif maor

3lobal trends, assess t2eir potential impact and fas2ion polic&maAin3 accordin3l6

Forecastin3 is often 0iewed as a statistical issue w2ose accurac can be impro0ed wit2

probabilit trainin3, team collaboration, and tracAin36 "ut t2is is not a scientific

endea0our, it is educated 3uess6

lt2ou32 t2e future is unAnowable and full of surprises, t2inAin3 about t2e future maor

3eostrate3ic e0ents and t2eir implications (e0en wit2 a flawed prediction) can 2elp to

concentrate on areas w2ere results can be ac2ie0ed6

OREWORD

Followin3 t2e fall of t2e "erlin =all, t2e world 2as become unreliable, unpredictable and

dan3erous owin3 to re3ional crises caused b et2nic, social and reli3ious factors in

combination wit2 lacA of tolerance and continuous resort to confrontation6

"ut none of t2e e#istin3 or3aniCations nor an nation actin3 alone will be able to deal wit2

suc2 a situation7 w2at is badl needed is 3lobal 3o0ernance able to cope wit2 future

c2allen3es and t2reats6


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countr) will be a 2e3emonic power6 sia wei32t in t2e 3lobal econom will consistentl

increase, t2us re0ersin3 t2e rise of t2e =est since .;$6 !wo more features will liAel

c2aracteriCe t2e new era7 demo3rap2 wit2 rapid a3in3 and increasin3 demand of food,

water and ener36

Hopefull, owin3 to po0ert reduction, 3rowt2 of t2e middle class, educational

impro0ement, and better 2ealt2 care t2ere is more potential for indi0idual initiati0e6

In addition to "raCil, Russia, India, 12ina and


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international order seems unliAel7 no ot2er power could ac2ie0e suc2 panopl of power

in a limited timeframe6 !2e emer3in3 powers are ea3er to taAe t2eir place at t2e top table

of UN, IMF and =", but t2e do not 2a0e an competin3 0ision6 lt2ou32 ambi0alent

and e0en resentful of t2e U


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s for t2e future of its strate3ic nei32bor2ood to t2e East and


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Ne0ert2eless, si3nificant barriers still pre0ent t2em from buildin3 up t2e intellectual,

political, militar and diplomatic capacities necessar to proect power and influence

internationall6

In 3eneral, t2e 2ealt2 of t2e 3lobal econom will increasin3l be linAed to 2ow well t2e

de0elopin3 world does 4 more so t2an t2e traditional =est6 In addition to 12ina, t2e

de0elopin3 nations t2at will become especiall important to t2e 3lobal econom include

"raCil, 1olombia, India, Indonesia, Me#ico, Ni3eria, '$, ietnam, Malasia and Ni3eria all 2a0e stron3 lon3&term 3rowt2

potential6

erman to become t2e lar3est European econom6


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democratiCin3 international communications as well as protectin3 t2e ri32ts of de0elopin3

countries6 !2ese two countries, plain3 an increasin3 role in biotec2nolo3 and

nanotec2nolo3, are t2e potential superpowers of tomorrow and are alread 2ea0il

en3a3ed in t2e 5uest for suppl of 2drocarbures and in t2e competition for commodities

and in0estment marAets6

s for Russia, its focus will liAel continue to be addressed to 1entral sia, t2e "alAans,

t2e 1aucasus, t2e "altic, and t2e rctic6 RussiaKs clout could anwa diminis2, as could

t2e economic stren3t2 of ot2er countries reliant on oil re0enues6

STATE AND NON-STATE ACTORS

>lobaliCation and risin3 le0els of interdependence amon3 states will c2an3e t2e nature of

power, maAin3 it 2arder for indi0idual states to dictate t2e course of e0ents6

?ower and influence often lie outside t2e classic state&structures and =estp2alian models

t2at 2a0e defined t2e post ==II era6 !2e state remain rele0ant, but more t2an e0er before

t2e 3lobal power landscape is s2ared wit2 ot2er actors and networAs7 t2e state&based

power ma no lon3er be central to e#ertin3 influence in t2is new en0ironment6

Moreo0er, power is s2iftin3 from t2e =est to t2e rest and downwards to indi0iduals

and non&state actors6 rise in t2e number of middle powers will impact on re3ional and

3lobal politics6 !2is polcentric world will present new c2allen3es and opportunities6

Hopefull, 3lobal c2allen3es will be confronted b states to3et2er wit2 subnational

3o0ernment aut2orities and non&state bodies6 New and emer3in3 tec2nolo3ies t2at fa0or

3reater empowerment of indi0iduals, small 3roups and ad 2oc coalitions increase t2e

power of non state actors6 committed transnational elite to3et2er wit2 a conscious

middle class will deal wit2 issues suc2 as po0ert, en0ironment, corruption, rule of law,

and power6 1ountries do not disappear but 3o0ernments increasin3l see t2eir role as

or3aniCin3 and orc2estratin3 2brid coalitions of state and non&state actors w2ic2 s2ift

dependin3 on t2e c2allen3e6

ut2oritarian re3imes 4 preoccupied wit2 assertin3 t2e primac and control of t2e central

3o0ernment 4 will find it 2ardest to operate in t2is world6


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w2ic2 lacA social or political co2esion6 lso 3lobal 3o0ernance institutions t2at do not

adapt to t2e more di0erse and widespread distribution of power are less liAel to be

successful6

"ottom line is t2at alt2ou32 classic state power still matters, a new model must consider

t2e strate3ic suasion and t2e role of non&state networAed actors to influence for 3ood and

in parallel wit2 classic state power6

EN/IRONMENT

Harmful en0ironmental c2an3es are taAin3 place in an increasin3l 3lobaliCed, urbaniCed,

industrialiCed, interconnected and fast mo0in3 world amidst s2iftin3 3eopolitical power

balances6

!2e current le0el of depletion, pollution, climate dama3e to3et2er wit2 t2e lacA of an

con0entional and c2eap oil left will in0ol0e additional mone and pollution in order to 3et

oil from s2ale oil or from t2e rctic or from a 3reat dept26

!2e de3radation of t2e ecosstem could t2us t2reaten future 2uman well&bein3, 2ei32ten

risAs and reduce de0elopment opportunities, especiall for poor and 0ulnerable

populations6

!2e prospects to remed suc2 situation are dependent on t2e capacit of indi0iduals,

institutions, countries and t2e 3lobal communit to respond to en0ironmental c2an3e6

E0en t2ou32 national and re3ional responses 2a0e be3un to address en0ironmental

c2allen3es, a 3lobal response is badl needed in promotin3 coordination and inte3ration

b settin3 3oals and de0elopin3 metrics, supportin3 capacit en2ancement, 3enerate

financial resources and facilitate t2e s2arin3 of best practices6

!2e pri0ate sector and ci0il societ could be in0ited to build a staAe2older web to en2ance

access to information and to mobiliCe new partners2ips6

t t2e 3lobal le0el, t2ere is t2e need to moti0ate citiCens, companies, institutions,

networAs and 3o0ernments to cooperate and deli0er ambitious policies and action b

in0estin3 in an en0ironment in w2ic2 sustainable solutions can represent t2e most

effecti0e and meanin3ful 3lobal response6

ddressin3 t2e underlin3 dri0ers of 3lobal en0ironmental de3radation, rat2er t2an t2e

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smptoms, re5uires t2e sustained e0olution of rules, institutions, economic sstems and

0alues to transform t2e current approac2 to en0ironmental mana3ement6 !2e capacit of

t2e international communit to deli0er solutions to en0ironmental problems is a function

of its abilit to establis2 and maintain fle#ible and 2olistic 3o0ernance and mana3ement

frameworAs at 3lobal and national le0els6

DEMOGRAPH

In t2e ne#t few decades t2e world population ma 2a0e reac2ed a plateau6 n important

demo3rap2ic trend is t2e a3in3 population in Europe, -apan,


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remain t2e t2ree economic poles of t2e world wit2 t2e 12inese econom e#pected to

become t2e lar3est, subect to rebalancin3 and institutional reforms6

MIDDLE CLASS

lar3er 3lobal middle class, better educated wit2 wider access to 2ealt2 care and

communications tec2nolo3ies, is set to 3row worldwide6 Millions of people will climb out

of po0ert and 3ain new indi0idual power7 for t2e first time a maorit of t2e world

population could not be impo0eris2ed, and t2e middle classes will be t2e most important

social and economic sector in t2e 0ast maorit of countries around t2e world6 Education

will become increasin3l important as countries seeA to de0elop Anowled3e&based

economies, impactin3 on 3ender e5ualit and t2e empowerment of women6 "ut, as social

e#pectations increase and income distribution ma continue to be asmmetric, t2e

purc2asin3 power ma s2rinA for t2e middle class due to t2e liAel increase of education,

2ealt2care and ser0ice costs6

TERRORISM

!2e Middle East and Nort2 frica (MEN) are t2e epicenter of a stru33le for t2e future

of Islam and t2e control of lar3el Islamic states spreadin3 from East sia to Morocco6

=2ile terrorist casualties in t2e =est 2a0e been minimal since t2e mid&'$$$s, t2e

e#tremists continue to tar3et Muslims (moderate


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could focus less on causin3 mass casualties and more on creatin3 widespread economic

and financial disruptions6 !errorist could mount a computer&networA attacA in w2ic2 t2e

casualties would be measured not b t2e 2undreds or t2ousands Ailled but b t2e millions

se0erel affected b dama3ed infrastructures, liAe electrical 3rids bein3 taAen down6

It is t2erefore important to empower 3o0ernments in a societ w2ere information mo0es at

t2e speed of !witter, w2ere t2e merican Da0id Headle was able to use >oo3le Maps to

2elp plot t2e Mumbai terrorist attacAs in '$$:, w2ere t2e 1olombian Oscar Morales used

FacebooA in '$$. to mobiliCe ' million people around t2e world to marc2 a3ainst t2e

FR1 and protest a3ainst t2e terrorist 3uerrilla or3aniCation , w2ere companies liAe

maCon, Master1ard and ?a?al 2a0e s2ut down ille3al fundin3 sources in was swifter

and more effecti0e t2an 3o0ernment&led le3al action6

IDEOLOG

=2ile fascism and communism mi32t not be on t2e 2oriCon, 3reater attention is to be paid

to ideolo36

Nationalism will remain a powerful force, especiall as t2e international en0ironment

becomes increasin3l competiti0e, and far&ri32t ideolo3ies ma see a re0i0al6

New influential ideolo3ies ma emer3e inspired b reli3ion, p2ilosop2, et2nic difference,

nationalism ine5ualit or a combination of t2ese factors6 Ideolo3ical conflicts are liAel to

occur and e#tremist 3roups ma use 0iolence to ac2ie0e political obecti0es b also

resortin3 to diaspora communities unable to inte3rate6

It must be remembered t2at man core 0alues in t2e MEN countries are tied to Islamic,

rab and local standards7 as alread stressed calls for instant democrac are liAel to

maAe t2e situation worse6 !2e =est cannot control or s2ape ideolo3ical conflicts w2en

t2e occur, onl e#ert limited pressure and influence 4 supportin3 t2e best elements and

puttin3 pressure on t2e worst6

INANCE

!2e fra3ilit of t2e European banAin3 sstem and t2e loose monetar policies pursued bt2e "anA of -apan, t2e "anA of En3land and t2e Federal Reser0e would re5uire a robust

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action b t2e European 1entral "anA , but >erman is opposin3 suc2 a mo0e6 Meanw2ile,

t2e 12ina "anA will continue to accumulate more 3old reser0es and bu forei3n

currencies6 International currenc mana3ement will t2us become an e0en more direct

e#pression of 3eostrate3ic worldwide influence6 On '9 -ul '$ "raCil, Russia, India,

12ina and


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indifference and, conse5uentl, populism)6

>o0ernment acti0it s2ould not be dominated b s2ort&term considerations7 unfortunatel,

neit2er t2e capitalist sstem nor democratic societ appear willin3 to sacrifice s2ort&term

ad0anta3e in order to create a future better life6 FranAl speaAin3, s2ort&termism in

democracies and in capitalism will 2inder an effecti0e response7 t2e problem is not a lacA

of tec2nolo3, nor t2e economic cost, but t2e wa 3o0ernments will c2oose to or3aniCe

decision&maAin36

CRISES AND DISCONTINUITIES

more fra3mented international sstem increases resource competition, spread of let2al

tec2nolo3ies, t2e risA of conflicts between states and spillo0er from re3ional conflicts6

!2e risA of conflict wit2in a state remains 2i32 in parts of Middle East and


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No real pro3ress can come from focusin3 on eac2 crisis as if more were not to come , and

sol0in3 t2e crisis would amount to temporaril treat t2e smptoms rat2er t2an t2e

underlin3 cause6 Furt2ermore, eac2 countr case must be addressed indi0iduall

alt2ou32 t2e full ran3e of re3ional and outside forces must not be i3nored6 Focus must be

on strate3ic patience and continuin3 efforts w2ile acceptin3 maor re0ersals, taAin3

casualties in t2e process, and tr and tr a3ain6

!2e best&case scenario is a 3rowin3 political partners2ip between t2e U< and 12ina6 "ut it

could taAe a crisis to brin3 t2em to3et2er liAe a nuclear standoff between India and

?aAistan resol0ed onl b cooperation between =as2in3ton and "eiin36

!2e worst case scenario en0isions a stallin3 of economic 3lobaliCation t2at would

preclude ad0ancement of financial well&bein3 around t2e world6 !2at could be caused b

t2e outbreaA of a 2ealt2 pandemic t2at could result in closed borders and economic

isolationism6

CONCLUSIONS

In t2e 'stcentur t2e nations able to resort to t2e 3lobal a0ailable potential and to t2e

opportunities associated wit2 inno0ation and tec2nolo3 will eno more power and e#ertmore influence t2an e0er6

: and >'$, =orld "anA and t2e International Monetar

Fund will liAel remain influential in addressin3 t2e problems of a 2i32l 3lobaliCed and

interdependent world6 !2e contemporar powers will remain reluctant to s2are power and

t2e risin3 and emer3in3 powers will seeA appropriate le0els of reco3nition, especiall in

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t2e UN

Global Challenges, A Sneak Peek Into the Future Giorgio SPAGNOL_0

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