Gian Fulgoni Ch iChairman · 2009. 5. 8. · Gian Fulgoni Ch iChairman A il 16 2008April 16, 2008....

MEASURING THE DIGITAL WORLDMEASURING THE DIGITAL WORLD

Online is the New PrimetimeOnline is the New PrimetimeOnline is the New Primetime

Gian FulgoniCh i

Online is the New Primetime

Gian FulgoniCh iChairmanChairman

A il 16 2008April 16, 2008

Why is Online the New Primetime?Why is Online the New Primetime?

■ It’s where the audience is.

■ There are powerful new tools for online media planning and analysis

■ We have proof of the power of online advertising:– Correct metricsCorrect metrics– Can measure latent impact– Can show impact on offline (e.g. in-store) sales – Can demonstrate long term branding benefitg g

■ Budgets rapidly shifting online as effectiveness and efficiency of online marketing demonstrated, but Internet marketing still underutilized by many industriesmany industries

Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScore 2

The Internet is a massive, rapidly growing mediumThe Internet is a massive, rapidly growing medium

■ 185 million U.S. people age 2+ online in a month, spending an f *average of 29 hours online per person*

– 80% of 824 million global Internet users now outside of U.S.

■ 99% of online population search in a month, p p ,conducting 22 searches per searcher**

■ 75% of online population stream a video, viewing an average of 70 videos per viewer per month***videos per viewer per month– Up 36% vs YA

■ 66% of online population visit a social networking site, spending 4 h th i it *hours per month per visitor*

■ 40% of online population visit a blog site in a month*

Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScore

* February 2008, U.S., comScore Media Metrix

** February 2008, U.S., comScore qSearch 2.0

*** January 2008, U.S., comScore Video Metrix

User Generated Content Sites Growing RapidlyUser Generated Content Sites Growing Rapidly

80,000

U.S. Monthly Unique Visitors (000)

60,000

70,000

1 [M] MYSPACE.COM*

2 [M] YOUTUBE.COM

40,000

50,000

3 [M] Blogger

People(000)

20,000

30,000 4 [P] FACEBOOK.COM

0

10,000


Internet’s reach approaches TV’s from 6 to 8pm and exceeds it from 8 to 10amInternet’s reach approaches TV’s from 6 to 8pm and exceeds it from 8 to 10am

60

70

Th i

40

50

60

Med

ium

TV There are six million fewer Primetime TV viewers this May than in ‘07

30

40

% P

eopl

e 15

+ U

sing

Internet

TVInternet

y(Nielsen)

10

20

% TV

0Midnight 2:00 AM 4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00

AM12:00 PM

2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM 8:00 PM 10:00 PM


Source: National People Meter, comScore Media Metrix 2007

The Internet is the 3rd most used medium and about to become 2nd only to TVThe Internet is the 3rd most used medium and about to become 2nd only to TV

Newspapers p p8% Magazines

7%Internet* 17%

Watching TV Radio 19% g37%

Radio 19%

Video or DVDs 12%

* Excludes work usage


Source: Forrester Research, March 2007

Excludes work usage.

Internet Ad Revenues Continue to SurgeInternet Ad Revenues Continue to Surge

Quarterly Internet Advertising Revenues($ Billions) $21.1B in 2007,

Up 26% Over 2006


1998 1999 20072006200520042003200220012000

Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) estimates.

7

Ad Dollars are Flowing OnlineAd Dollars are Flowing Online

MediaAdvertising Dollars Spent in 2007* Percent Change from 2006

InternetOutdoorCable TV

$21 Billion$ 7$26

MagazinesDirect MailMiscellaneousO

$14$61$39$Overall

Trade JournalsYellow PagesBroadcast TV

$295$ 4$14$46Broadcast TV

RadioNewspapers

$46$19$44


Source: Global Insights as published in BusinessWeek* Other sources may define categories differently, leading to different results

Yet, online is only 7% of total ad spending!Yet, online is only 7% of total ad spending!

2007 Estimate($ in Millions)

% Total% TotalDirect Mail $ 60,988 21%Broadcast TV $ 45,749 15%Newspaper $ 42 939 14%Newspaper $ 42,939 14%Internet $ 21,100 7%Cable TV Networks $ 20,479 7%R di $ 18 592 6%Radio $ 18,592 6%Yellow Pages $ 14,538 5%Consumer Magazine $ 13,695 5%All th $ 55 977 19%

Source: Advertising Age by Robert J. Coen, McCann-Erickson Inc; Newspaper Association of America;

All other $ 55,977 19%Total $ 296,100 100%


g g y , ; p p ;Radio Advertising Bureau; Simba Information; Outdoor Advertising Association of America; Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB); Lehman Brothers

9

U.S. Online Advertising: One third branding; two thirds direct responseU.S. Online Advertising: One third branding; two thirds direct response

Total Online Advertising 2007: $21.1 Billion


Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) estimates.

10

CPMs on the Web are far lower than TV!CPMs on the Web are far lower than TV!

Ad Spending ($BN)Impressions (BN)

75

100

4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000

25

50

1 0001,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

70%

-Internet TV

-500

1,000

Internet TV

29%

CPM’s are just much, much lower for the Internet.

“We are selling inventory as if it were pork bellies”Wenda Millard, President Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia

CPM’s are just much, much lower for the Internet.

“We are selling inventory as if it were pork bellies”Wenda Millard, President Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia


Source: Display Impressions: comScore Ad Metrix, Jan -08, Television GRP’s: comScore Estimates

Wenda Millard, President Martha Stewart Living OmnimediaFormer Head of Sales, YahooWenda Millard, President Martha Stewart Living OmnimediaFormer Head of Sales, Yahoo

Frequent news about moves onlineFrequent news about moves online

■ “Online is getting to the ■ “The country’s third-largest g gpoint where it may be more important than the 30-second TV spot.”

y gadvertiser (General Motors) is getting ready to shift fully half of its $3 billion budget into

Joel Ewanick VP MarketingHyundai Motor America

digital and one-to-one marketing within the next 3 years.”

Hyundai Motor America Advertising AgeMarch 17, 2008


New Tools Put Online Media Planning and Analysis on a Par with other MediaNew Tools Put Online Media Planning and Analysis on a Par with other Media

■ Panel-based measures correct problems with site server data

■ Using the correct metrics allows improved media planning and analysis– Also, look beyond clicks

I t lli i il bl h i d ti d bli h■ Intelligence is now available showing advertisers and publishers detailed data on all online ad campaigns

■ Detailed segmentation of users is helping build more powerful media g p g pplans


The Cookie Deletion Problem: Overstated Reach and Understated FrequencyThe Cookie Deletion Problem: Overstated Reach and Understated Frequency

30% f I t t d l t th i ki i th

A comScore Study of Yahoo and DoubleClick Cookies

■ 30% of Internet users delete their cookies in a month

■ These deleters do so an average of 4 times a month– 5 different cookies for same site in a month on one computerp

■ True for 1st party site cookies and 3rd party ad serving cookies

■ Cookie deletion creates large errors:– 2.5 times overstatement of unique visitors in server logs– 2.5 times overstatement of reach and a similar understatement of frequency in ad

server logs

■ Need to adjust basic site server statistics using panels


Decline in Online Ad Click-Through RatesDecline in Online Ad Click-Through Rates

2.50%

2 50%

2.00%

2.50%

1.12%1.50%

20022006

0.41%

0.20%0.50%

1.00%

0.00%Rich Media Non-Rich Media


Sources: Doubleclick, eMarketer, Eyeblaster, ABI Research estimates

“Natural Born Clickers”comScore Study with Tacoda and Starcom“Natural Born Clickers”comScore Study with Tacoda and Starcom

Clickers on Display AdsSource: comScore, Total US Online Population, July 2007

Clickers

Non-Clickers


Clickers Follow the 80/20 RuleClickers Follow the 80/20 Rule

Source: comScore, Total US Online Population, July 2007

Clickers are predominantly


p yyounger (25 - 44) with lower income (under $40K)

Those Who Viewed the Ad But Did Not Click Drove Majority of Site Engagement and SalesThose Who Viewed the Ad But Did Not Click Drove Majority of Site Engagement and Sales

% of Exposed People

Include View-Through Effects When Measuring the


Include View Through Effects When Measuring the Campaign – Clicks Are NOT Enough

Clicks on Display Ads Are a Misleading Metric and They Don’t Reflect Brand-Building EffectsClicks on Display Ads Are a Misleading Metric and They Don’t Reflect Brand-Building Effects

O l f di d i (■Only use for direct response ad campaigns (or search)

■Clicks don’t measure all of a campaign’s sales impact nor the cumulative (latent) impact of ads

■Clicks don’t tell you anything about brand building effects


New competitive advertising intelligenceNew competitive advertising intelligence

S Ad M t i■ comScore Ad Metrix– Number of ad view impressions…per advertiser…per site– Precise reach and frequency, full demographics and behavioralPrecise reach and frequency, full demographics and behavioral

stats– Transcription of actual ads

Post buy analysis– Post-buy analysis


Significant improvement on available toolsSignificant improvement on available tools

C t d ft th t ll d d th ’■ Counts ads after they are actually rendered on the users’ screens

■ No spiders or bots are used– Ad Metrix reports all behaviorally targeted adsp y g

■ Full demographics of the viewer of each ad – Including country of origin

U di i i i h ll h S■ Uses a dictionary consistent with all other comScore reports


Auto Industry Ad LeadersAuto Industry Ad Leaders

Total Ad-Exposed

Advertiser

Display Ad Views (Billion)

Share of Voice*

Unique Visitors (Million)

Reach Average Frequency

GeneralGeneral Motors 1.7 33.00% 102.6 56% 16.4Toyota 1.4 26.00% 62.4 34% 21.7Ford Motor Company 1.1 21.00% 95.0 52% 11.3

Source: comScore Ad Metrix, Jan 08


Automakers using Portals and Auto Resource SitesAutomakers using Portals and Auto Resource Sites

Total Display Ad

Ad Exposed Uniq. R h Average

Top Properties where Auto Manufacturer Display Ads Appear

sp ay dViews

(Million)

U qVisitors (Million)

Reach e ageFrequency

Yahoo! Sites 935.6 72.0 39% 13.0

Microsoft Sites 584.9 39.6 21% 14.8

Fox Interactive Media 550.3 41.7 23% 13.2

AOL LLC 316 8 33 8 18% 9 4AOL LLC 316.8 33.8 18% 9.4

AutoTrader 113.8 3.7 2% 30.8

Edmunds.com 97.6 4.4 2% 22.4

KBB.com 83.5 4.7 3% 17.9

eBay 80.9 15.0 8% 5.4

Time Warner - Excl. AOL 53.7 8.9 5% 6.1


Source: comScore Ad Metrix, Jan 08

Time Warner Excl. AOL 53.7 8.9 5% 6.1

Google Sites 50.3 16.2 9% 3.1

Top Sites Deliver Far Less Than Their Nominal Reach and Need Ad Networks to Expand Effective ReachTop Sites Deliver Far Less Than Their Nominal Reach and Need Ad Networks to Expand Effective Reach

Reach of U.S.Internet

At Least Half of Top Sites Audiences Are Hard to Reach by a Typical Campaign

74.4% 72.4%

58 7%Audience

Bottom 50%

58.7% 56.5%

of Viewers for Each Site

AOL Media Network MSN-Windows LiveGoogle SitesYahoo! Sites

3.1% 3.8%2 5% 2 1%

% of Total Page Views

% of Page Views Viewed by Bottom 50% of Site Users

2.5% 2.1%

Yahoo Sites Google Sites MSN-Windows Live AOL

Page Views

Average PVs

AOL Media NetworkAOL Media Network MSN-Windows LiveGoogle SitesYahoo! Sites


Source: comScore Custom Analysis, December 2007

Average PVs per Light User (bottom 50%)

10.3 14.7 7.4 7.3

Why have so many advertisers been slow to adopt online?Why have so many advertisers been slow to adopt online?

■ Are the wrong metrics being used, i.e. clicks instead of ROI?

■ Is it lack of proof that it works?

■ Is there a bias that online is only for direct response?

■ Do some advertisers not realize what paid search can do for them?

■ Is there a structural bias in the way media is planned?

■ comScore’s clients have been busy proving the results– SearchSea c– Display advertising– Offline impact (in-store sales)– Latent effects


“The Role of Search in Consumer Buying”2006 comScore Study with Google“The Role of Search in Consumer Buying”2006 comScore Study with Google

The Three Components of how Search Drives Buying

Direct Online Effects 16%

Latent Online Effects 21%Latent Online Effects 21%

Latent Offline Effects 63%


Source: Google/comScore “The Role of Search in Consumer Buying” Press Release, March 21, 2006; based on holiday-related purchases completed online and offline across 11 product categories for 60 days post-search

26

“The Digital Shelf”:comScore Study with P&G, Yahoo and SEMPO

THE SEARCH MARKETINGTHE SEARCH MARKETING Food 93 7MM 43 8MM

% INTERNET REACH

UNIQUE VISITORS

UVs USINGSEARCH

MARKETING OPPORTUNITYAll CPG Categories

MARKETING OPPORTUNITYAll CPG Categories

Food

B b

93.7MM 43.8MM

26 0MM 15 7MMNearly half of Internet Users search on CPG

Baby

Personal

26.0MM 15.7MM

35 9MM 9 8MMsearch on CPG related terms or visit CPG related sites.

Personal Care

35.9MM 9.8MM

Household 7.3MM 1.7MM


USING SEARCH

Source: comScore Marketing Solutions; 3 Months Ending April 2007 – Total U.S.

27

Searchers are more affluent, youngerand more likely to be female

Demographic Profile

SEARCHERSU.S.

POPULATIONSEARCHERS POPULATION

Average Income $63k $45K

Average Age 41 46Average Age 41 46

Female 78% 50%

4 C ll B tt Ed ti 45% 22%4 yr. College or Better Education 45% 22%


Demographic & Life Stage Questions: Base: Searcher (n = 2,011); Non – Searcher (n= 803)= Significant difference at 95% confidence

28

Searchers can be influenced to switch brands based on factors other than price

Thinking about your last purchase, did you switch brands? Why did you switch?

Price (Main Reason for Switching)

• Searchers 27%S h 38%• Non-Searchers 38%

Searchers Non-Searchers


QA14/11a: Did you switch to another brand? Base: Searchers (n = 1,893); Non-Searchers (n = 751) QA15/12a: Why did you switch? Base: Searchers (n = 625); Non-Searchers (n = 208)= Significant difference at 90% confidence.

29

The Brand Lift of SearchThe Brand Lift of Search

Methodology: Testing the Brand’s Placement

Control, brand

1Subjects entered an unbranded query and saw one of the following search engine results pages (SERP):

Query: Unbranded (i.e., “fuel efficient car”)1. Control (No branding –

“Brand X” does not appear on the SERP)

Top

2

not mentioned

2. Brand appears in Top Sponsored result only

3. Brand appears in Top Organic result only Top Organic Only

3

Top Sponsored Only

Side

5Top

Sponsored

Top Organic

Organic result only

4. Brand appears in both Top Sponsored and Top Organic results

Top Organic Only Side Sponsored

5. Brand appears in Side Sponsored result only

T O i AND

4N t All bj t (N 2722) 25+ d id i


Top Organic AND Top Sponsored

Source: Enquiro Search Solutions, Inc., July 2007.

Note: All subjects (N=2722) are 25+ and considering purchasing a new car within the next year (test brand: major import auto maker).

32

A 16% Point Increase in Brand Association When Brand Is in Top Sponsored and Top Organic ResultsA 16% Point Increase in Brand Association When Brand Is in Top Sponsored and Top Organic Results

When you think of fuel-efficient cars, which come to mind?Query: Unbranded (i.e., “fuel efficient cars”)

16%70%

42% point gap b t t t

50%

60%

between test brand and another brand

20%

30%

40%

Test Brand OtherNone

0%

10%

20%


Control Side Sponsored

Top Sponsored Listing

Top Sponsored& Top Organic

Top OrganicListing

0%

Source: Enquiro Search Solutions, Inc., July 2007; Note: There is a significant (7% point) increase from Control to Side Sponsored, as well.

33

A 2.2x Lift in Aided Brand Recall When Brand Is in Top Sponsored and Top Organic ResultsA 2.2x Lift in Aided Brand Recall When Brand Is in Top Sponsored and Top Organic Results

Which of the following brands do you remember seeing in the search results page you just viewed?Q U b d d (i “f l ffi i t ”)

2.2x

Query: Unbranded (i.e., “fuel efficient cars”)

Test Brand

1.5x50%

60%

70%

x

30%

40%

Test BrandOther

10%

20%


Side Sponsored

TopSponsored

Top Sponsored & Top Organic

Top OrganicListing

0%

Source: Enquiro Search Solutions, Inc., July 2007.

34

THE MISSED OPPORTUNITY The Digital ShelfTHE MISSED OPPORTUNITY The Digital Shelf

Kellogg’s Spent $$$ Millions on Packaging and Advertising to Link “Organic” to Their BrandsOrganic to Their Brands…

…They Forgot Search Entirely and Nimble Competitors Bought TheirCompetitors Bought Their Target Consumer for Less Than $0.50 A Click!

Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScoreSource: comScore Marketing Solutions; August 2007

What about the

impact of online ads

on in-store sales?


Close the Loop Studies (Done with Yahoo!)Close the Loop Studies (Done with Yahoo!)

D f t di t th i t f id h d b d■ Dozens of studies to assess the impact of paid search and banner ads on online and offline sales

■ Real world analysis: comScore panelists divided into two matched groups (exposed and non-exposed to advertising)– Search only– Display ads only– Search and display ads together– Neither

■ Passively measured behavior, no surveys involvedy y– Linked to in-store sale through CRM databases, retailer loyalty cards (e.g. Kroger),

IRI scanner panel


Search + Display Ad Effectiveness Results:comScore Norms for Offline ConversionSearch + Display Ad Effectiveness Results:comScore Norms for Offline Conversion

Offline $$ Per (000) E d

Incremental Impact O Offli $’Exposed On Offline $’s

60% Control Test60%

+ 123%40%

50%

40%

50%

+ 287%

%

+ 123%

+ 60%20%

30%

20%

30% + 204%

+ 30%

0%

10%

Search & Search Display0%

10%

Search & Search Display

+ 18%


Displayp y

DisplayImpact

Impactp y

Impact

A Campaign’s ROI is Dramatically Higher with the Inclusion Of Offline SalesA Campaign’s ROI is Dramatically Higher with the Inclusion Of Offline Sales

Online Sales Impact Offline Sales Impact

Display Only +$72 MM +$150 MM

Search Only

Search &

+$12 MM

$

+$125 MM

$Search & Display +$55 MM +$190 MM

$139 MM $465 MMTOTAL +$139 MM +$465 MM

Offline represents 77% of


Lift vs. Control

the total sales impact!

39

Some Summary Thoughts for the FutureSome Summary Thoughts for the Future

Th t li d ti i i i f ll■ The move to online advertising is in full gear

■ It will spread rapidly as traditional advertisers understand its impact

■ Panel data for accurate consumer metrics■ Panel data for accurate consumer metrics

■ Cumulative reach and frequency are mandatory metrics if traditional branding ad dollars are to be moved online

■ Search can be a branding tool

■ Measure latency and offline impact of online campaigns to show higher ROIROI


QuestionsQuestions

Pl b it ti i th Q&A l th i ht id f■ Please submit questions using the Q&A panel on the right side of your screen.


Gian Fulgoni Ch iChairman · 2009. 5. 8. · Gian Fulgoni Ch iChairman A il 16 2008April 16, 2008....

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Transcript of Gian Fulgoni Ch iChairman · 2009. 5. 8. · Gian Fulgoni Ch iChairman A il 16 2008April 16, 2008....