Fourth Quarter Earnings Release - Union Pacific
Transcript of Fourth Quarter Earnings Release - Union Pacific
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Fourth Quarter Earnings ReleaseJanuary 21, 2010
Jim Young, Chairman & CEO
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Fourth Quarter Results
2008
$1.08
Diluted Earnings per ShareRevenue Carloads(Year-Over-Year % Change)
2009
$1.31
4%-18%
-3%
-13%
October November December
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Delivering Strong Results in a Recession2009 Year-End Review
• Safety Records
• Excellent Operations
– Best ever service metrics
– Customer service “bests”
• Record Operating Ratio
• Strong Balance Sheet
• Positioned for the Future
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Fourth Quarter Marketing & Sales ReviewJanuary 21, 2010
Jack Koraleski, Executive VP – Marketing & Sales
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Fourth Quarter Recap
Intermodal
Agricultural
Chemicals
Automotive
Industrial
Energy
TOTAL -5%
-2%
-15%
1%
3%
5%
Volume Revenue
-13%
-7%
-22%
-1%
-7%
-3%
-21% -28%
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Agricultural ProductsFourth Quarter - $738 Million
Quarterly Drivers
• Strong Export Demand for Soybeans and Meal
• Growth in Ethanol & DDGS
• Record Unit Train MovesGrain
Products 40%
Whole Grains
39%
Food/ Refrigerated
21%
Revenue Mix
Volume ARC Revenue
(%)
-7-10
3
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Quarterly Drivers
• Increased Production
• Parts Growth
AutomotiveFourth Quarter - $302 Million
Auto Parts 21%
Finished Vehicles
79%
Revenue Mix
Volume RevenueARC
(%)
1
-2
-1
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Quarterly Drivers
• Weak Soda Ash and Petroleum Markets
• Late Harvest Impacts Fertilizer
• Export Plastics Growth
ChemicalsFourth Quarter - $539 Million
Revenue Mix
Plastics 20%
IndustrialChemicals
26%Soda Ash
17%
Petroleum & Other
23%
Fertilizer 14%
Volume RevenueARC
(%)
-2
-5
-7
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Quarterly Drivers
• Tough Year-Over-Year Comparison
• High Coal Stockpiles
• 1/1/09 Southern Powder River Basin Contract Losses
• Colorado/Utah Production Issues
EnergyFourth Quarter - $765 Million
Colorado/Utah 20% Southern
Powder River Basin 72%
Other 8%
Revenue Mix
Volume RevenueARC
(%)
-15-8
-22
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Industrial ProductsFourth Quarter - $513 Million
Quarterly Drivers
• Major Segments Reflect Economic Weakness
• Waste Shipments Grow
Paper 16%
Lumber 16%
Metals 23%
Construction Products
14% Consumer/ Waste/
Machinery 10%Minerals/
Consumer21%
Revenue Mix
Volume RevenueARC
(%)
-21
-9
-28
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IntermodalFourth Quarter - $684 Million
Quarterly Drivers
• International Weakness vs. Domestic Strength
• New Hub BusinessInternational 49%
Domestic 51%
Revenue Mix
Volume RevenueARC
(%)
5
-8
-3
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Customer Satisfaction Index
2007 2008 2009
7983
Full Year
88
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18+% To Re-Price (As of 1/1/2009)
Legacy OpportunityTotal Percent of Revenue
2013+
2010
20112012
4%
2%
7%
1%
Re-Priced
since 2004
4%
Re-Priced
since 2004
<1%
3%
6%
2%
7%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013+
14% To Re-Price (As of 1/21/2010)
Remaining Legacy
Energy 67% Intermodal 29% All Other 4%
2%
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2010 Outlook
• Consumer Spending/ Economic Recovery
• Volume Growth Opportunities in All Groups
• Pricing Gains
• Strong Value Proposition
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Fourth Quarter Operations ReviewJanuary 21, 2010
Dennis Duffy, Vice Chairman – Operations
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2009 Safety Performance
Employee(Personal Injury Incidents Per
200,000 Man-Hours)
Customer(Incidents Per Million Train Miles)
2009*200820072006
2009*200820072006
2009*200820072006
-24% -26%
-26%
Public(Crossing Accidents Per
Million Train Miles)
*Best ever safety performance
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2009 Service Metrics Full Year
AAR Velocity(MPH)
10.5
Freight Car Utilization(Cycle Days)
27.3
2006 2009*
21.4 8.6
Good
2006 2009*2007 2008 2007 2008
2007 20082006
27.2
2009*
24.8
2007 2008
AAR Terminal Dwell(Hours)
Good
Service Delivery Index**
69
2006 2009*
92Good
**Includes early deliveries
Good
*Best ever service metrics performance
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Performance Sustainability
Volume
Variability
Service
ExcellenceUpside
Leverage
• Train Capacity and
Locomotive
Practices
• Surge Capabilities
• Process Discipline
• Capital Investments
and Total Cost of
Ownership
• Infrastructure
Condition
Service Performance & Volume
100
125
150
175
200
225
60
70
80
90
1007-Day Carloads
SDI**
2006 2007 2008 2009
**Includes early deliveries
• 4,200 TE&Y
• 1,600 Locomotives
• 44,000 Freight Cars
Furloughs/Stored*:
GTMs
Train Starts
*As of 1/16/2010
Full Year 2009 Variability
-17%
-20%
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2009 Capital Achievements
Kansas City St. Louis
North Platte
Los Angeles Ft.
Worth
San Antonio
El Paso
Houston
Portland
Oakland
Chicago
Salt Lake City
Denver
Joliet
2009 Capacity & Commercial Projects
New Orleans
“Red X”
$2.5 Billion Investment(In Millions)
Engineering Replacement
$1,675
Locomotives& Equipment
$375
Capacity/ Commercial
Facilities $375
Technology
& Other $100
Replacement
Slow Orders Down 30% Boone High Bridge Donner Pass
Growth and Productivity
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2010 Operating Initiatives
• Drive Toward “Best in
Class” Safety
• Service Excellence
• Strong Infrastructure
• Fewer Assets, More
Carloadings
• Resilient, Agile and
Volume Variable
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Fourth Quarter Financial ReviewJanuary 21, 2010
Rob Knight, CFO
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$ 3,754
2,752
1,002
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(153)
(321)
$ 551
507.8
$ 1.08
$ 4,286
3,145
1,141
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(127)
(378)
$ 661
506.5
$ 1.31
Fourth Quarter Earnings SummaryIn Millions (except EPS)
Operating Revenue
Operating Expense
Operating Income
Other Income
Interest Expense
Income Taxes
Net Income
Weighted Average Diluted Shares
Diluted EPS
2009 2008 %
(12)
(12)
(12)
(8)
20
(15)
(17)
-
(18)
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Diluted Earnings Per Share Comparison*Fourth Quarter
2009 Earnings Offsets
• Casualty Costs +$0.04
• One-Time Pacer Payment -$0.04
Business Summary
• Price and Productivity
Offset Volume Decline
and InflationReported
2008Fuel
Surcharge
Lag Impact
2008
Excluding
Fuel
Surcharge
Lag Impact
Reported
2009
$1.31
$0.22
$1.09 $1.08
*See Union Pacific Web site under Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP.
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Continued Core Pricing Gains
Reported Core Price (Including RCAF Fuel Impact)Price Excluding RCAF Fuel Impact
Quarterly(2009)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Full Year
6%
5%5%
6%
6%
3.5%4%
5%
2006 2007 2008 2009
7%
4.5%
6%6%6.5%
5.5%
5%
5.5%
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Compensation & BenefitsFourth Quarter – In Millions
$1,101
2008 2009
$1,018
-8%
• 10% Workforce Reduction
• Improved Labor Efficiency
– Volume variability
– Less overtime
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Fuel ExpenseFourth Quarter – In Millions
• Reduced Fuel Prices Saved
$102 Million
• -10% GTMs Saved $73 Million
• Impact of Fuel Conservation
Programs and Technology
Investments
$2.46
2008 2009
$2.05
289256
Average Fuel Price(Per Gallon Consumed)
2008 2009
Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)
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Purchased Services & MaterialsFourth Quarter – In Millions
• Decreased Contract
Services Expense
– Less crew transportation
and lodging
– Lower facility costs
• Less Locomotive and
Freight Car Material
$458
2008 2009
$421
-8%
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DepreciationFourth Quarter – In Millions
• Ongoing Capital Investments
• Restructured Locomotive Leases
$353
2008 2009
$377+7%
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Equipment and Other RentsFourth Quarter – In Millions
• Restructured Locomotive Leases
• Lower Volume & Increased Productivity
– Less leased equipment
– Reduced short-term car rents
$320
2008 2009
$266
-17%
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OtherFourth Quarter – In Millions
• $30 Million Pacer Payment
• Reduced Casualty Expense
• Lower Bad Debt Expense
• Increased Equity Income
• Other Miscellaneous Expense Reductions
$181
2008 2009
$129
-29%
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Flexible, Efficient Cost Structure
Carloads
*The calculation normalizes for the change in diesel fuel prices. (See Union Pacific website under Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP.)
Key Drivers9,261
2009 2008
7,786
• Xxx
• Xxx
• xxx
• Project Operating Ratio
• Increased Operating Effectiveness
• Total Cost of Ownership Focus
• Reduced Administrative Burden
-16%
Operating Expenses(In Millions)
13,895
2009 2008
12,099
-13%
Fuel Price
Adjusted*
10,751 Reported
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Operating Ratio(%)
2006 2007 2008 2009
79.6 79.4
73.4 73.3*
2006 2007 2008 2009
81.5
79.3
77.376.0*
Fourth Quarter Full Year
*Best ever quarterly and full year Operating Ratio
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Full Year Income StatementIn Millions (Except EPS)
Operating Revenues $ 14,143 $ 17,970
Operating Expenses 10,751 13,895
Operating Income 3,392 4,075
Other Income 195 92
Interest Expense (600) (511)
Income Before Income Taxes 2,987 3,656
Income Tax Expense (1,089) (1,318)
Net Income 1,898 2,338
Diluted EPS $3.75 $4.54
2009 2008 %
(21)
(23)
(17)
F
17
(18)
(17)
(19)
(17)
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Strong Financial PositionIn Millions
*See Union Pacific Web site under Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP.
Adjusted Debt to Capital
Free Cash Flow*
2009200820092008
$825
$515
Total Debt*(Adjusted)
$13,934 $14,376
47.4%45.9%
Generating
Solid Cash
Balance Sheet
Improvement
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Capital UpdateFull Year – In Billions
20092008
$3.1
$2.5 $2.5
2010E
• $200 Million for Positive Train Control
• No Locomotive Purchases
• $150 Million Joliet Intermodal Terminal Completion
Total Capital Spending*
*Includes Cash Capital, Leases and Other Non-Cash Capital
$2.3
Base
Capital
PTC
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2010 Drivers
• Volume Growth
– 2009 comparison
– Economy dependent
• “Real” Pricing Gains
• Diesel Fuel Prices
– Current spot price at $2.15+/gallon
– First half 2009 fuel surcharge lag
• Labor Cost Pressures
– Agreement health and welfare
• Drive Stronger Shareholder Returns
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Fourth Quarter Earnings ReleaseJanuary 21, 2010
Jim Young, Chairman & CEO
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A View to 2010
• Slow Economic Environment
• Attract New Business with Excellent Service
• High Customer Expectations
• Regulatory Activity
• Remain Focused on Margin Improvement
– Cost efficiency
– Pricing gains
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Cautionary Information
This press release and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the Corporation’s outlook regarding economic conditions, future productivity, future safety and operating performance, the success and outcome of network management initiatives and strategic investments, competitiveness and quality of service, and its ability to generate financial returns and significant margin leverage and take advantage of new business opportunities. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.
Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2008, which was filed with the SEC on February 6, 2009. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).
Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our Web site are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the Web site is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.
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Fourth Quarter Earnings ReleaseJanuary 21, 2010
Question & Answer Session