Fourth Quarter Earnings Release
Embed Size (px)
Transcript of Fourth Quarter Earnings Release

Fourth Quarter Earnings Release
Jim Young, Chairman & CEO
January 22, 2009

2
Fourth Quarter Results
2007
$0.93
Diluted Earnings per Share Operating IncomeIn Millions
2008
$1.31 $1,141+ 41% + 32%
$864
2007 2008

3
2008 – A Strong Year
Overcame Numerous Obstacles
Consistent Execution of Long-Term Strategy
Safe Transportation
Excellent Customer Service
Efficiency Gains
Strategic Investments
Increased Shareholder Returns

Fourth Quarter Earnings Release
Jim Young, Chairman & CEO
January 22, 2009

Fourth Quarter Earnings Release
Jack Koraleski, Executive VP – Marketing & Sales
January 22, 2009

6
Intermodal
Agricultural
Chemicals
Automotive
Industrial
Energy
TOTAL
Fourth Quarter Recap
-12%
-15%
-14%
-1%
-26%
-5%
-16%
Volume Revenue
+2%
-3%
-1%
+20%
-17%
+10%
-7%

7
Agricultural ProductsFourth Quarter - $792 Million
Quarterly Drivers
Whole Grains Volume Softens
Growth in Ethanol & DDGS
Additional Produce Railexpress Train
Grain Products
41%
Whole Grains
36%
Food/ Refrigerated
23%
Revenue Mix
Volume ARC Revenue
(%)
10
16
-5

Quarterly Drivers
Reduced Vehicle Production
8
AutomotiveFourth Quarter - $305 Million
Auto Parts 23%
Finished Vehicles
77%
Revenue Mix
Volume RevenueARC
(%)
-26
12
-17

Quarterly Drivers
Residual Hurricane Impact
Weak Demand Across Major Market Segments
Growth in Sulfur and Soda Ash
9
ChemicalsFourth Quarter - $578 Million
Revenue Mix
Plastics 19%
Liquid & Dry Chemicals
23%Soda Ash
19%
Petroleum & Other
25%
Fertilizer 14%
Volume RevenueARC
(%)
-14
15
-1

Quarterly Drivers
Strong Demand and Improved Network Performance Drive SPRB Growth
Production Issues Impact Colorado Mines
10
EnergyFourth Quarter - $983 Million
Colorado/ Utah 22%
SPRB 70%
Other 8%
Revenue Mix
Volume RevenueARC
(%)
-1
22 20

11
Industrial ProductsFourth Quarter - $717 Million
Quarterly Drivers
Economic Weakness Impacts Most Segments
Growth in Energy-Related Commodities
Paper 15%
Lumber 15%
Metals 24%
Construction Products
18%Gov’t/Waste/ Machinery
9%Minerals/
Consumer 19%
Revenue Mix
Volume RevenueARC
(%)
-15
14
-3

12
IntermodalFourth Quarter - $705 Million
Quarterly Drivers
Weak Economy Impacts International and Domestic
EMP Revitalization Boosts Growth with Intermodal Marketing Companies
International 58%
Domestic 42%
Revenue Mix
Volume RevenueARC
(%)
-16
10
-7

131313
Customer Satisfaction Index
Good
2006 2007 2008
72
79
83
Full YearGood
Q1 Q2 Q4
81
83
85
Quarterly
83
Q3

14
Legacy Opportunity
Total Percent of Revenue
As of 1/1/2009
Percent of Legacy Revenue
Re-Priced
82% since
2004
<1%3%
6%
2%
7%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013+ Energy
50%
Intermodal
29%
Autos
10%
Chemicals
10%
Industrial Products
& Agricultural 1%

What We Think We Know …
15
Negative Pressure
Tough Comparisons in Ag
and Energy
Whole Grains Volume Closer
to 2007 Levels, Soybean
Crush Declines
Autos and Construction:
Have We Hit The Bottom?
Further Plastics Softening
Import Decline Continues
Opportunity to Improve
Ethanol Growth and 2009
Harvest
Automotive Extended
Shutdowns End
Fertilizer for Spring Planting
Colorado/Utah Coal
Production Recovery
EMP Revitalization
Fourth Quarter Growth in
Imports

2006
2009 Volume
Uncertain Demand Forecast
January YTD 20%
2009 Core Price
+5 to 6%
2009 OutlookMore Questions Than Answers
16
20072008
Jan 2009
Average 7-Day Carloadings (000s)
160
180
200
JunJan Dec
~~

Fourth Quarter Operating Review
Dennis Duffy, Executive VP – Operations
January 22, 2009

18
Safety- “Zero Tolerance”
Employee
Public
Customers
54% Improvement
29% Improvement
41% Improvement
Personal Injury Incidents Per 200,000 Man-Hours
Incidents Per Million Train Miles
Crossing Accidents Per Million Train Miles
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

21.4 21.8
23.522.0 22.3
25.14th Quarter
PerformanceFull Year
19
AAR Train Speed
69
76
8474
79
894th Quarter
Service Delivery Index (SDI)*
* Includes Early Deliveries
Customer Service
Commitments
Unified Plan
Inventory Management
Volume Variable
Distributed Power
Train Size
2006 2007 2008
2006 2007 2008

10.5
9.8
9.4
Productivity
Train Size and Starts
4th Quarter
9% Fewer Total Train Starts
9% Lower GTMs
Full Year 2008
6% Fewer Total Train Starts
3% Lower GTMs
Fuel
Operating Productivity Council
20
Manifest Train Size
77
80
82
2006 2007 2008
Freight Car UtilizationCycle Days
2006 2007 2008
• Manifest train starts decreased by 16%
between 2006 and 2008
Good
Good

21,950
18,062
8,721
7,200
Resource UpdateYear-End
21
Locomotives TE&Y Employees
3,150
Furloughed
* Represents Year–End Levels Minus Extra Resources
308,300
240,993
AAR Inventory
1,200+
Stored
48,000
Stored
2007 2008 2007 2008
2007 2008

22
2009 Capital InvestmentsReplacement, Growth and Productivity
Replacement /Renewal
Programs
Safety
Velocity
Throughput
Long Term Growth Projects
Sunset /Intermodal
Coal Capacity/Red X
Enhance Throughput
Productivity
$2.8 Billion Capital PlanIn Millions
Engineering Replacement
$1,800
Locomotives/Equipment
$400
Capacity/ Commercial
Facilities $450
Technology/
Other $150
Replacement
Growth and Productivity

232323
2009 Operating Plan
Safety Leadership
Excellent Service
Volume Variability
Operating Productivity Council
Asset Utilization
Capital Discipline

Fourth Quarter Financial Review
Rob Knight, CFO
January 22, 2009

252525
Operating Revenues
Freight Revenues $ 4,080 $ 3,988
Other Revenues 206 209
Total Operating Revenues $ 4,286 $ 4,197
Operating Expenses
Compensation and Benefits 1,101 1,121
Fuel 732 903
Purchased Services & Materials 458 456
Depreciation 353 337
Equipment & Other Rents 320 333
Other 181 183
Total Operating Expenses $ 3,145 $ 3,333
Operating Income $ 1,141 $ 864
Income Statement Summary*Fourth Quarter – In Millions
2008 2007 %
* For more information on reclassified financials, please see Union Pacific Web site.
2
(1)
2
(2)
(19)
Flat
5
(4)
(1)
(6)
32

262626
Freight Revenue DriversFourth Quarter – In Millions
2007 2008
$3,988
+2%$4,080
-12% Carloads
+6% Core Pricing Gains
2 Month Lag Drives Increased Fuel Cost Recovery
Positive Business Mix Adds 6 Points to Average Revenue Per Car

272727
Compensation & BenefitsFourth Quarter – In Millions
$1,121
2007 2008
$1,101
-2%
-9% GTMs
Labor Productivity
-4% Workforce
Wage and Benefit Inflation

2828
Fuel ExpenseFourth Quarter
Average Fuel PricePer Gallon Consumed
Fuel ConsumptionGallons (in millions)
20082007
$2.46$2.62
-9% GTMs Saved $77 Million
Impact of Fuel Conservation
Programs and Technology
Investments
20082007
333
289

292929
Purchased Services & MaterialsFourth Quarter – In Millions
$456
2007 2008
$458Flat
Component Cost Inflation
Volume and Productivity Savings
Less crew transportation and lodging
Lower intermodal ramp expense

3030
-4%
30
Equipment and Other ExpenseFourth Quarter – In Millions
$333
2007 2008
$320
Equipment
Lower Car Hire Payments
Reduced Locomotive Lease Expense
Equipment and Other Rents
Other Expense
-1%
Other
4th Quarter Specific Items Pressured Costs
$65M Casualty Expense Reduction
2007 2008
$183 $181

313131
Operating Ratio Improvement
79.4
2007 2008
73.4
-11.9 Pts
2006
85.3
2005
79.6
(%)
Fourth Quarter
79.3
2007 2008
77.3
-9.5 Pts
2006
86.8
2005
81.5
(%)
Full Year

323232
Full Income StatementFourth Quarter – In Millions (Except EPS)
Operating Revenues $ 4,286 $ 4,197
Operating Expenses 3,145 3,333
Operating Income $ 1,141 $ 864
Other Income – Net 25 40
Interest Expense (127) (125)
Income Before Income Taxes 1,039 779
Income Tax Expense (378) (288)
Net Income $ 661 $ 491
Diluted EPS $ 1.31 $ 0.93
2008 2007 %
2
(6)
32
(38)
2
33
31
35
41

333333
Full Income StatementFull Year – In Millions (Except EPS)
Operating Revenues $ 17,970 $ 16,283
Operating Expenses 13,895 12,908
Operating Income $ 4,075 $ 3,375
Other Income – Net 92 116
Interest Expense (511) (482)
Income Before Income Taxes 3,656 3,009
Income Tax Expense (1,318) (1,154)
Net Income $ 2,338 $ 1,855
Diluted EPS $ 4.54 $ 3.46
2008 2007 %
10
8
21
(21)
6
22
14
26
31

343434
Cash Management
Cash From Operations
2007
$3,277
2008
$4,070
2007 2008
$878
$1,249
Year-End Cash Balance
+24%
+42%

3535
Capital Update$Billions
35
2008
Cash & Non Cash Capital
Long Term Operating & Capital Leases
$2.6$2.8~~
2009 Estimate
$2.6$2.8
$2.8
$3.1
$2.8
IT / Other
$141

363636
Share Repurchase Program
Fourth Quarter Purchases
3.4 Million Shares
$199M Returned to Shareholders
2008 Repurchase Summary
22.2 Million Shares Repurchased
$1.5B Returned to Shareholders
25.2
2007 2008
$3.0 Billion Returned to
Shareholders since
January 2007
47.4
Fourth Quarter 2008 Purchases
Cumulative Prior Period Purchases

373737
Total Debt Levels 2008 - In Billions
2007
$12.3
* See Union Pacific Web site under Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP.
44.1%
Adjusted Total Debt ($Billions)*
Adjusted Debt to Capital*
Solid Credit Access
Upcoming Debt Maturities
$250M on 2/15/09
47.4%
$13.9
2008

3838
Economic Uncertainty
+5 to 6% Core Price
Ongoing Productivity Gains
38
A Look At 2009

Fourth Quarter Earnings Release
Jim Young, Chairman & CEO
January 22, 2009

40
2009 – Challenging Ourselves
A Very Difficult Year
Safety Commitment
Service Excellence
Strategic Capital Investment
Performance Driven

4141
Cautionary InformationThis press release and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically expectations regarding the Corporation’s outlook regarding economic conditions, future operating performance, ability to make, and plans for, strategic investments, and financial returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: expectations as to continued or increasing demand for rail transportation services; expectations regarding operational improvements, including the effectiveness of network management initiatives that have been or will be implemented to improve operations, customer service, and shareholder returns; expectations as to increased returns, cost savings, revenue growth, and earnings; expectations regarding fuel price and our ability to mitigate fuel costs; the time by which certain objectives will be achieved, including expected improvements in operations and implementation of network management initiatives; estimates of costs relating to environmental remediation and restoration; proposed new products and services; expectations that claims, lawsuits, environmental costs, commitments, contingent liabilities, labor negotiations or agreements, or other matters will not have a material adverse effect on our consolidated financial position, results of operations, or liquidity; statements concerning projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and statements of management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.
Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement.
Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2007, which was filed with the SEC on February 28, 2008. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).
Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our Web site are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the Web site is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

Fourth Quarter Earnings Release
Question & Answer Session
January 22, 2009