BRIEFING PAPERAUGUST 2018

Four Future Scenarios for the San Francisco Bay Area

Planning for the region in the year 2070

3

ContentsIntroduction 2

1.CriticalUncertainties 4

Economy 7

Housing 12

Transportation 16

PhysicalForm 20

2.ExternalForces 24

ClimateChange 25

Earthquakes 26

TheFederalGovernment 28

3.FutureScenarios 30

GatedUtopia 33

BunkerBayArea 35

RustBeltWest 37

ANewSocialCompact 39

Conclusion 40

Acknowledgments

The SPUR Regional Strategy is generously supported by:Chan Zuckerberg Initiative Clarence E. Heller Charitable FoundationCurtis Infrastructure Initiative Dignity HealthFacebookGenentechJohn S. and James L. Knight FoundationMarin Community FoundationGeorge MillerSage Foundation Stanford University

Additional funding provided by AECOM, Fund for the Environment and Urban Life, Hellman Foundation, Microsoft and the Seed Fund.

Primary Author:Gabriel Metcalf

Contributors:Ratna Amin, Benjamin Grant, Sarah Jo Szambelan, Laura Tam, Egon Terplan, Laura Tolkoff

This paper was developed from ideas generated by the SPUR Board of Directors at the 2017 annual board retreat.

Strategic Advisor: Peter Schwartz

Thank you to:Nicole BoyerSalesforceMetropolitan Transportation CommissionConnectSF

Edited by Karen SteenDesigned by Shawn HazenIllustrations by Michael ByersCopy edited by Valerie Sinzdak

ThisreportispartofaseriesofpublicationsthatlaythegroundworkfortheSPURRegionalStrategy.Thecompletestrategywillbepublishedin2020.

4 5

TheSanFranciscoBayAreaoccupiesaspecialplaceinthenation’simagination:It’sthelocusofcounterculture

andthetecheconomy;thelandofprogressivepoliticsandunbelievablyhighhousingcosts.Contrastingimages

oftheregion—citiessetalongsideaspectacularbayversusextremetrafficandhomelessness—bothattract

andrepelobserversfromaroundthecountry.

WhilesomepartsoftheUnitedStateshavestruggledtofindtheirfootinginthefaceofdeindustrialization,

theBayAreahasbecomeaneconomicsuperpower.Buttheregionhasnotbeenabletoaddenoughnew

housingorcreateafunctionaltransportationsysteminparallelwiththeeconomy’sexpansion.Theresultshave

beenpredictable:thehighesthousingpricesinthecountryandbrutalcommutesformanypeoplewholivehere.

Thosewiththeleastwealthandpowersufferthemost,withsomepushedintohomelessnessoroutoftheregion

altogether.

Wecanandshoulddobetter.TheBayArea,withallofitsassets—wealthandtalent,civicinstitutionsand

universities,culturaldiversityandcosmopolitanism,creativityandopennesstoexperimentation—shouldbea

modelforsuccess.Weshoulddemonstratewhataneconomicallystrong,environmentallysustainable,socially

inclusivemetropoliscanlooklike.

ThisreportisthefirstproductoftheSPURRegionalStrategy.Itisanattempttothinkthroughtheforces

thatweintheBayAreawillcollectivelycontendwithoverthenext50years,thecriticaldecisionswewillface

andwheretheymighttakeus.WhathappensintheBayAreatomorrowdependsonthechoicesthatallofus

wholiveandworkheremaketoday.

TheSPURRegionalStrategyLaunchedin2018,theSPURRegionalStrategyisamultiyearefforttodevelopavisionfortheSanFranciscoBay

Areaintheyear2070,alongwiththestrategiesneededtomakethisvisionareality.MostofSPUR’sRegional

Strategyresearchandrecommendationswillfocusonthetraditionalnine-countySanFranciscoBayArea.

However,incaseswheresystemsreachbeyondthisborder—forexamplehousingmarkets,commutepatterns

andwatersheds—theprojectwillstudydataandmakerecommendationsforabroadergeographyincludingthe

SanJoaquinValley,theMontereyBayareaandtheSacramentoarea.

ThegoaloftheSPURRegionalStrategyistodevelopasetofstrategiesthatwillmaketheBayAreamore

livable,moreinclusive,moreequitable,moreenvironmentallybalanced,moreresilienttoclimatechangeand

earthquakesandmoreregionallyintegrated.SPURaimstoproduceabodyofworkthatmovesfromvisionto

strategytoimplementation,providingaroadmapforthecomingdecades.

ScenarioPlanning:MythsoftheFutureTobeginthisexploration,theSPURBoardofDirectorsengagedinascenarioplanningprocess,astructuredway

fororganizationstothinkaboutthefuture.Thisapproachaddressesuncertaintyaboutfutureconditionsatthe

beginningofthestrategicplanningprocess.Itbringspeopletogethertobetterunderstandtheseuncertainties,

todevelopplausiblestoriesaboutpossiblefuturesbasedonthevariablesthatdrivechangeandtocreate

alignmentonfuturegoalsandactions.

Introduction

Scenarioplanningisnotpredictingthefuture.Itisawayofunderstandingchoices,chainsofevents,

alternativesandpossibleoutcomestosupportbetterdecision-makinginthefaceofafuturewithgreat

uncertainty.Thescenariosthatresultfromthisprocessare“mythsofthefuture,”storiesthatrevealthepotential

long-termoutcomesofthechoicesmadetoday.

ThemembersoftheSPURboard,morethan100businessandcivicleaderswithdeepknowledgeof

theBayArea,usedtheirannualretreattodevelopasetofscenariosfortheBayAreain2070.Workingin

small,facilitatedbreakoutgroups,SPUR’sboardidentifiedthemostimportantforcesshapingthefutureand

consideredtheirinterplay.Thisreportsummarizesthatwork,presentedinthreestages:

>Chapter1looksatthecriticaldecisionsthatwillshapetheregion’seconomy,housing,transportationand

physicalform.

>Chapter2considersasetofexternalforcestheBayAreawillhavetocontendwithinallscenarios.

>Chapter3combinesthefactorstoarriveatasetoffourpossiblescenariosforthefuture.

6 7

Thescenarioplanningprocessstartsfromthebeliefthatmultiplefuturesarepossible.There’snowaytopredict

whatwillunfold,buttherearewaystoplanforandshapethepossibilities.Howourregionevolveswillbe

influencedbyhistoryandbydeepstructuralforcesinoursociety—butitwillalsobeshapedbythechoices

wemakeasacommunity.Strategicplanningworkbeginswithattemptingtodiscernwhatiswithinourcontrol

andwhatisnot.InconsideringthefutureoftheBayArea,theSPURboardandstaffidentifiedfourcritical

uncertaintiestoexplore:theeconomy,housing,transportationandthephysicalformoftheregion’surbanized

areas.

Foreachtopic,thisreportasks:

>Whatshouldweassumeas“given”acrossallscenarios?

>Whatuncertaintieswillshapethewayourregionevolvesbutareoutsideofourcontrol?

>Whatcanbeinfluencedbythedecisionsthatvoters,communitygroups,governments,businessesandcivic

leadersmake?

Economy

Theprivatesectorgeneratesthewealthweuseforpersonalandcollectivepurposes:thewagesthatweearn

andspend,aswellasthetaxdollarsthatenablepublicservices.Placesthatstruggleeconomicallygenerally

losepopulation,aspeopleareforcedtomigrateelsewhereinsearchofopportunity,whileplacesthatgrow

economicallytendtoattractimmigrantsfromallover.

Today,theBayAreastandsoutforitsgrowingextremes:It’sthecenteroftheworld’sinnovationeconomy,

withsomeofthemostsuccessfulfirmsinexistence,andatthesametimeit’saplaceofdeepeconomic

inequality,withmanypeoplelivinginpoverty.

Thissectionthinksthroughtwocriticaluncertainties:

1.Whatisthelong-termfateofoureconomicbase?WilltheBayAreaeconomycontinuetogrow,orwillthe

region’stimeasaneconomicsuperpowercometoanend?

2.Willweaddressourgrowinginequalityofwealthandincome?Willourdistributionofresourcesand

opportunitybecomemoreunequal,orwillthistrendreverse?

Long-termeconomicforecastingisnotoriouslydifficult,andnoonecanclaimtohaveacrystalball.Whatwecan

doisworktoremainawareofthebroadrangeofpossibilities,ratherthanassumingthatthewaythingsarenow

willcontinueforever.

Willoureconomygrowordecline?Thebaseofanyeconomyistheexportsector—firmsthatsellgoodsandservicesoutsideoftheregion.These

companiesbringwealthintoourregionfromtherestoftheworld.ExportindustriesintheBayAreainclude

tourism,professionalservices,information,banking,financeandmanagementservices.Intheknowledge-based

technologysector,theBayAreahasoneofthegreatestconcentrationsoftalentandfirmsontheplanet.

1.CriticalUncertainties

8 99

In recent decades, Bay Area

job growth has been led by the

knowledge sector, which attracts

highly educated workers and

pays higher than average wages.

Meanwhile, manufacturing and

related sectors, which attract

lower-skilled workers and often

offer lower wages, have shrunk.

FIGURE 1

Forthepast25years,theknowledgesectorhasledBayAreajobgrowth.

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Economicclustersandgloballycompetitiveeconomicregionshaveheydaysofvaryinglength.Wemight

maintainourcurrenteconomicedge,butit’snecessarytothinkthroughstoriesofdeclineaswell.Failuretobuild

enoughhousingandtransportationinfrastructureforjobgrowthcouldprovefatalbymakingitimpossiblefor

localinnovatorstocontinuetoaddjobsorstartnewcompanieshere.

Macroeconomicpolicy,internationaltrade,war,immigrationandotherfactorsbeyondourcontrolalso

significantlyunderlieourcompetitivenessandcouldleadtoeconomicdecline.Thecurrentpoliticaltrendtoward

closingAmerica’sborderstoimmigrantscouldhavedevastatingconsequencesfortheBayAreaeconomy,

preventingusfromwelcominginnovative,motivatedpeoplefromaroundtheworld.

Orperhapsoursuccesswillundermineitselfifasmallsetofhighlyprofitablecompaniesdriveupcostsand

grabdisproportionatesharesofthetalent,makingithardfornewfirmstostarthere—aversionofthestoryof

once-powerfulindustriesinplaceslikeDetroitandPittsburgh.

Meanwhile,weknowthatotherregionsallovertheworldwillbedoingtheirbesttogrowtheirown

economies.

Wealsofaceabroadsetoffutureuncertaintiesaffectingthedevelopedworld.Howwillnewwavesof

innovationchangethekindsofworkthattheglobalmarketdemands?Howwillwecompeteinit?Howmuch

willthesechangesaffectthespecificjobsandindustriesthatmakeuptheBayAreaeconomytoday?Asolder

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industriesgoaway,willtheBayAreacontinuetobeattheforefrontofinnovation,orwillthelocusofactivity

shifttootherlocations?

Willinequalityincreaseordecrease?

EconomicinequalityhasbeengrowinginallBayAreacountiessincethe1980s—partofabroadertrendthat

hasbeenhappeningacrossWesternnationssincethemid-20thcentury.Globalization,deindustrialization

andjobautomationthroughtechnologyallplayapart.IntheUnitedStates,inequalityisdeeplyimpactedby

systemicracism,withAfrican-AmericansandLatinosonaverageearninglowerincomesandencountering

multiplebarrierstoeconomicprogress.Thiscountry’slowrateofunionization,itsunderinvestmentineducation

anditsreluctancetousegovernmentpowertorestorecompetitioninmonopolisticindustriesallimpedeefforts

toreduceinequality.

FIGURE 2

Incomeinequalityhasincreasedtolevelslastseen100yearsago.

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AsSPURhasexaminedinresearchoneconomicprosperity,middle-wagejobsintheBayArea,asintherest

ofthecountry,havebeendecliningrelativetojobsatthehighandlowendsofthewagespectrum.1Onthelow

end,moreandmoreworkersarecobblingtogetherlow-payingjobswithnobenefits.

Atthesametime,investmentsineducationarenotequitablydistributed,andpeoplewholackaccessto

high-qualityeducationreceivefeweropportunitiestoearnalivingwageorhaveacareer.WhileCaliforniahas

someofthenation’sbestpublicschools,overallstatespendingoneducationhasdeclined;Californiausedto

rankamongthetopstatesforinvestmentineducation,butnowitisamongthebottom.Asaresult,toomany

BayArearesidentslacktheeducationalbackgroundtoaccessthetopemploymentopportunities,whichinstead

gotohighlyeducatedpeoplewhocomeherefromaroundtheworld.

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10 11

alowerqualityoflife,highercrimeratesandlessstableeconomies;they’realsolessresilienttostressesand

shocks.Highlevelsofincomeinequalitymayalsonarrowthetaxbaseforpublicservicesandweakenthe

politicalwilltomakeinvestmentsinpublicsystems.Inequalityreducessocialcohesionaswell,makingitmore

difficulttoundertakecollectiveactiontodobigthingsofanykind.

Newchallengesareonthehorizon.Asautomation,artificialintelligenceandahostofotherinventions

makecertainoccupationsobsolete,whatkindofsafetynetwillbeinplaceforpeoplewholosetheireconomic

purpose?Whatkindsofnewworkwillweinventovertime?Whattypesofwagesandfulfillmentwillthesejobs

offer,andwhattypeofeducationwillequippeopleforthesenewjobs?

Assumptionsacrossallscenarios:>Theconcentrationofuniversities,talentandfirmswillcontinuetomaketheBayAreaanattractiveplaceto

startcompanies—unlessotherfactors,suchashighhousingcostsandall-daycongestion,outweighthose

advantages.

>Atthesametime,successfulinnovationclusterswillcontinuetodevelopinothermetropolitanareasaround

theworld,providingintensecompetitionwiththeBayArea.

>Inequalitywillpersistandworsenifwedonothingtochangeit.

>Asautomationeliminatesjobs,newformsofworkwillbeinventedthatreplacethejobslost,althoughnot

necessarilyforthesamepeopleorinthesamelocations.

Uncertaintieswedonotcontrol:>WillU.S.immigrationpoliciesallowglobaltalenttocomehere?

>WilltheUnitedStatesmoveinamoreprotectionistdirection,orwillourcountrybeopentointernational

trade?

>Whattypeofanti-monopolypolicieswillbeenforcedbyfederalandstategovernments,andhowwillthose

specificallyshapethecompetitivelandscapeofthetecheconomy?

>Whattypeofsocialsafetynetwillourcountryhave,andhowwellwillithelppeoplesurvivethelossofcertain

typesofjobs?

Outcomesthatwillbeshapedbyourchoices:>Willwebuildenoughhousingtomakeitaffordableandreasonableforfirmstocontinueaddingjobsinthe

region,basedonthewagestheyhavetopaytokeeptheirworkershere?

>Willweofferbroadenoughprosperitytosupportsocialcohesionandpreventtheunrestthatcanundermine

publicinvestments?

>Willweupgradethepublicschoolsystemtogivemoreofourkidsachancetoentertheknowledgeeconomy?

>Willweenacthigherminimumwagesandsimilarinterventionstoincreaseearningsatthelowestincome

levels?

>Howmuchwillweinvestinpublicservicesliketransportation,educationandhealthcare,whichserveall

peopleregardlessoftheirincome?

>Willwedesignpoliciesthatoffersecuritytotherisingcontingent(“gig”)workforce?

MoreEquality

MoreInequality

EconomicDecline EconomicGrowth

Growth slows or ceases

in high-wage knowledge

industries. Policy focuses on

redistributing existing wealth,

but over time prosperity in the

Bay Area declines.

The region’s leading industries

cease to add employment, and

over time companies shrink.

Start-up activity dries up as

the center of the innovation

economy shifts to other regions.

With fewer opportunities for

everyone, poverty increases.

Silicon Valley maintains its

role as the world’s leading

innovation economy.

Increasing prosperity is widely

shared. The Bay Area is an

engine for upward economic

mobility.

Current trends continue. The

knowledge economy is strong

and dynamic, but many people

in the region are shut out from

the resulting prosperity.

FourPossibleScenariosfortheEconomy

12 13

HousingForthepasttwodecades,theproblemofhighhousingcostshasgottenmoreofSPUR’sattentionthanperhaps

anyotherissue,anditremainsoneofthegravestthreatstotheregion’seconomy,qualityoflifeandvalues.2The

challengeisoneofsupplyanddemand:Wedon’thaveenoughhousingforallthepeoplewhowanttolivehere.

Thecompetitionforhousingdrivescostsupuntilpeoplearepricedoutandmustmovesomewhereelse.Those

whomustmoveareoftenthepeoplewiththefewestresources.Someenduplivingonthestreets.

TheBayAreacannotbeaplaceofopportunity—aplacethatwelcomesdiversityofallkinds,aplacethatis

hometoinnovation—ifitdoesnottakestepstoaddressthiscriticalproblem.

Thissectionaskstwokeyquestionsthatwilldeterminewhathappenswithhousingcostsinthelongrun:

1.Willweallowthehousingsupplytogrowenoughtomeetthedemand,therebybringingdowncosts?

2.Willwefundenoughhousingforthosewhocannotaffordtorentorbuyatmarketprice?

Howmuchwillthesupplyofhousinggrow?ThebasicreasonhousingissoexpensiveintheBayAreaistheextremeimbalancebetweenthedemandfor

housingandthesupplyofavailablehomes.Whilerelativepriceshaverisenandfallenwithboomsandbustsin

theeconomy,ourregionalhousingshortagehasremainedachronicproblem,andhighcostshavebeenafactof

lifefordecades.

FIGURE 3

HomevaluesintheBayAreahavegrownhigherandatafasterratethananywhereelseinthecountry.MedianhomevaluesinAprilofeveryyear,byCore-BasedStatisticalArea(CBSA)

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The median home values in the San

Jose and San Francisco–Oakland

areas have always been some

of the highest, but over the last

two decades the spread between

them and the rest of the country

has grown bigger. The San Jose

CBSA consists of Santa Clara and

San Benito counties. The San

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of San Francisco, San Mateo,

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3The State of Housing in the EU 2015,HousingEurope,2015,http://www.housingeurope.eu/resource-468/the-state-of-housing-in-the-eu-20154CaliforniaHousingPartnershipprovidedcountsofsubsidizedunitsusingtheirPreservationDatabase:https://chpc.net/policy-research/preservation/

preservation-clearinghouse/.SubsidizedunitsincludethosewithHUDloans,project-basedsection8contracts,LowIncomeHousingTaxCredits(LIHTC),USDAloansand/orrentalassistance.AmericanCommunitySurvey20161-yearestimatesprovidedtotalhousingstockestimates.

Startinginthe1970s,adesiretopreserveneighborhoodsfromphysicalchangeinspiredstrongoppositionto

newhousingdevelopment.Asaresult,BayAreacitieshavesomeofthecountry’smoststringentregulations

controllinghowandwherenewhomescanbebuilt.

Manyotherfactorscontributetotheproblem.Citieshavefiscalincentivestoattractcommercial

development,whichbringsrevenue,ratherthanhousing,whichrequiresadditionalservicesthatcurrentproperty

taxescannotcover.Thestate’senvironmentalregulationsmakeiteasyforopponentsofhousingtostopordelay

projects.Theboom-bustcycleoftheeconomymakesithardtosustainaskilledconstructionlaborforceduring

recessions.Manywell-intentionedrequirementseffectivelydriveupthecostofbuildinghousing.Andhome

valueshavecometobeaprimarysourceofwealthformiddle-classresidents,whoarereluctanttoallowvalues

todecreasebymakinghousingmoreaffordable.

Withdifferentplanningdecisions,theBayAreacouldmakehousingmuchmoreaffordable.Thiswouldmean

acceptingamixofbuildingheightsinmanylocationsandgivinguptheexpectationthatresidentsgettocontrol

whatgetsbuiltnearthem.Thesemayseemlikesmallthingstoask,butsuchchangeswouldbeasignificant

departurefromthecultureofplanningoverthepastquartercentury.

Howmuchwillthesocialhousingsectorgrow?Incitiesaroundtheworld,mostpeoplerentorbuyhomesontheopenrealestatemarket.Andyetmuchofthe

advancedindustrialworldhasfounditnecessaryandeffectivetosubsidizehousingforlow-andmiddle-income

peopleaspartofthesocialsafetynet.Forexample,itiscommoninEuropeancountriesforalargeshareof

housingtobeprovidedbya“socialhousing”sectorthatispermanentlyprice-controlled—ownedandoperated

byamixofpublicagencies,co-opsandotherentities.IntheNetherlands,33percentofallhousingisprovided

bythesocialsector;inFranceit’s17percent,intheUnitedKingdom18percentandinDenmark20percent.3

InCalifornia,theshareofsubsidizedhousingunitsismorelike3percent;inthenine-countyBayArea,it’s

about4percent.4

OneofthebigquestionsforhousingpolicyiswhethertheBayAreawillchoosetorampupinvestmentsin

subsidizedaffordablehousingasEuropeancountrieshavebeenabletodo.

Thereisnocontradictionbetweenradicallyincreasingthesupplyofmarket-ratehousingandradically

increasingthesupplyofsocialhousing.Bothstrategiescouldbepursuedsimultaneously.Atthesametime,we

shouldnotbenaïveabouthowdifficultthiswouldbe.Thefederalgovernmentisnotlikelytofundsocialhousing

atlevelsanywherelikeWesternEurope,bothforculturalreasonsandbecausemostoftheUnitedStatesdoes

nothaveanaffordablehousingcrisisonthescaleofours.Sowearefacedwiththedifficultproblemoffinding

stateandlocalsourcesoffundingforsocialhousingprograms.

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14 15

Assumptionsacrossallscenarios:>Thefederalgovernmentwillnotembarkonalarge-scaleprogramoffundingaffordablehousing.

>TherewillcontinuetobehighdemandtoliveinthecitiesoftheBayArea.

Uncertaintieswedonotcontrol:>Willinnovationsinconstruction,suchasmodularhousingormassproduction,reduceconstructioncosts?

>Willculturalpatternsaboutwhatkindofspacesweliveinchange?

Outcomesthatwillbeshapedbyourchoices:>Willwechangeourzoningandplanningprocessestofacilitatelarge-scaleincreasestotheBayArea’shousing

supply?

>Willwebewillingtoreplacesingle-familyhomeswithmulti-unithousinginsomepartsoftheregion?

>Willwereformthepropertytaxsystemsothatcitieshavestrongerfiscalincentivestopermithousing

development?

>Whatleveloffundingwillweprovideforsocialhousing?

HighSubsidy

LowSubsidy

LowSupply HighSupply

The middle class shrinks. The

region is made up mostly of

extremely wealthy households

that can afford market-rate

housing and the few low-

income households lucky

enough to get into subsidized

housing.

Current trends amplify.

There is minimal change to

housing supply at any level as

communities remain opposed

to physical change. The housing

crisis worsens for all income

levels.

Housing production returns to

levels seen after World War

II. Sufficient housing is built

for all incomes. New arrivals

no longer push out longtime

residents as there is enough

subsidized housing to fill the

need.

Market-rate housing becomes

more affordable for middle-

income people, but low-

income households are left

behind.

FourPossibleScenariosforHousing

16 17

Transportation

Withtheintroductionoftechnology-driventransportation—includingautonomousor“driverless”vehicles,

personalmobilitytoolslikeebikesandscooters,mobile-device-hailedridesanddeliverydrones—weare

experiencingwhatmaybethebiggestchangesinurbanmobilityinmorethanacentury.

Newtransportationtechnologyholdsthepotentialtodecreasecollisionsandincreasethespatialefficiency

ofcarsincitieswhilemakingpartsofourregionmoreaccessiblethantheywerebefore.Buttheseemerging

technologieswillraisenewquestionsabouttheroleofpublictransportationandpublicinfrastructure.Cities

mayfacepressuretocutoreliminatepublictransitoperationsascompaniesvietoreplacetheseserviceswith

fleetsofprivatelyownedautonomousvehicles(AVs).Theresultcouldbeamarket-drivensystemthatdelivers

inequitableaccess.

Thissectionthinksthroughtwocriticaluncertaintiesfortransportation:

1.Willwedesignourcommunitiestobewalkableandcompact,orwillwedesignthemtoaccommodateanever-

increasingnumberofprivatevehicles?

2.Willweinvestinbuildingpublictransportationandinfrastructure,orwillweletwhatwehaveatrophy?

Willwedesignforpubliclifeorforanever-increasingnumberofvehicles?TheBayAreahasbeenthroughseveralerasoftransportation:shipsandferries,railroadsandstreetcars,

automobilesandbuses,andmoderntransitsuchasBARTandlightrail.Afterdecadesoffocusonprivatecars

andhighways,arenewedappreciationforhuman-scaledurbanmobilityistakingholdinmanycities.

WhilewecannotpredictexactlywhenAVtechnologywillbeready,itseventualdeploymentappearstobea

certaintyforfreight,transitandpersonalmobility.ThequestioniswhetherornotwewilluseAVstocontinue

makingourcommunitiesmorelivable.IfAVsarenotownedbyindividualsbutareinsteadaccessedthrough

mobilityserviceproviders—muchasUber,LyftandChariotoperatetoday—andifwepairthemwithstrong

policies,thenwehavetheopportunitytogreatlyreducetheamountoflandinourcitiesdevotedtocars.We

couldconverttrafficlanestowidersidewalksandbikelanes,repurposeparkinggaragesfornewusesand

convertcurbsfromparkinglanestopick-upanddrop-offlanes.Thesearchforaparkingspacecouldbecomea

thingofthepast.GoodscouldbedeliveredbyAVsaswell,possiblyreducingtrucktrafficonstreets.Inshort,we

couldusetheopportunityofAVstoreclaimourcitiesfromtheautomobileandlauncharenaissanceinpubliclife.

Orwecoulddotheopposite:Wecoulddesignourstreetstoaccommodategreaterthroughputofvehicles,

enablingaworldwherepeoplespendmoretimeinvehiclesbutexperiencelessfrustrationbecausethey

canwork,sleeporrelaxwhiletraveling.BecauseAVscansenseeachother,theywouldnotneedtostopat

intersections.ThestreetinthisscenariowouldberepurposedasinfrastructureforAVs,andpedestrianswould

becomeananachronism.

Thelasttimewelivedthroughachangelikethis,whentheautomobilewaswidelyadoptedinthe1920s,we

beganaprocessofdestroyingoururbanfabricinordertoaccommodatevehicles.AVswillnotfixthisproblem

orremoveitasanissue;onthecontrary,thetechnologywillpresentuswithanewversionofthissamedilemma.

Thechoiceheredoesnotdependonhowthetechnologyevolves;itdependsonhowwechoosetodesignour

streetsandneighborhoods.AVscanfitwherevertheyareallowedtogo.Wewilldecidewherethatisthrough

ourplanningchoices.

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Trafficsafetypersistsasaprobleminourcities.Densityofcollisionscausingdeathorseriousinjuryacrossauto,pedestrianandbicyclecrashes(2011–2016)

Willweinvestinpublictransitandinfrastructureorletthematrophy?TheBayAreadoesnothaveaworld-classtransitsystem,nordoesithavestronginvestmentintransportation

infrastructuresuchasroads,tunnels,stationsandtechnologicalsystems;afteryearsofneglect,ourregionhas

rackedupbillionsofdollarsindeferredmaintenance.

BayArearesidentsmakeonly70transittripsperpersononaverageeachyear,adeclineoverthepast25

years.Underfunding,thefragmentationofservicesundermultipleoperators,baddesignchoicesand—most

fundamentallyofall—low-densitylanduseshavelimitedtheusefulnessoftransitformostpeople.Manybelieve

thattechnologycouldeventuallyreplacetheneedforexpensive,government-runtransitoperators.Employee

shuttlesalreadycarrytensofthousandsofworkerseachdaytosuburbancampusesthatpreviouslywouldhave

requiredeveryonetodrivetheirowncars.Uber,Lyft,Chariotandasetofemergingcompetitorsprovidepoint-

to-pointmobility—andinthenearfuture,whenthesecompanieswillnolongerhavedriverstopay,perhaps

theycouldprovidethatmobilityatasimilarcosttopublictransitwhileservinglocationsthattransitnevercould.

For decades we have prioritized

vehicles over people in the way we

design, manage, invest in and set

policy for our transportation network,

creating dangerous street conditions

in busy places where modes of

transportation mix. The Bay Area’s

high-injury network (shown in red)

makes up just 8 percent of the street

network, but it is where roughly 60

percent of collisions that cause death

or severe injury occur.

18 19

TheSPURRegionalStrategywillexplorealloftheseideasindepth.Butthereisreasonforskepticism:If

everyonewhocurrentlyridestransitweretoswitchtoAVs—evenlarge,multipassengerautonomousvehicles—

itislikelythatourroadnetworkwouldbecomeevenfurthergridlockedthanitistoday.

Astheregion’spopulationincreases,pressureonourtransit,highways,roadsandbridgesisreachinga

breakingpoint.Congestionhassignificantimpactsonourdecisionsaboutwheretoliveandwork,howto

getthereandwhentotravel.Italsohasacostlyimpactonthemovementofgoodsandfreightbetweenour

regionandotherregionsoftheworld,andbetweenpartsoftheBayArea.AsSPURhasarguedinanumberof

reports,5inordertoremainafunctionalplacewherepeoplehaveaccesstowhattheyneed,wewillhavetomake

enormousinvestmentsininfrastructure,whichincludesastatewiderailnetworkandhigh-speedrail.Absenta

generationalreinvestmentinourtransportationsystems,theBayArea’spositionintheglobaleconomycould

erodeasothermetropolitanregionsinvestinmoderninfrastructureandwefallfurtherbehind.

Assumptionsacrossallscenarios:>Sharing,automationandelectrificationofvehicleswillallincrease.

>Mobilephonetechnologyandprivatetransportationserviceswillcontinuetotransformurbanmobility.

>Therewillbelessneedforstoringcarsinsidecities.

>High-volumecommuterraillineswillstillbethemostefficientwaytomovelargenumbersofpeople.

Uncertaintieswedonotcontrol:>HowsoonwillAVsreplacetraditionalvehiclesforpersonalmobility,freightandtransit?

>Willtheprivatemobilityindustrybecompetitiveormonopolistic?

>Whatnewtransportationtechnologies,suchastheHyperlooporpassengerdrones,willcomeintouse?

>Willthefederalgovernmentpreemptstateandregionalregulationofprivatemobilityproviders?

Outcomesthatwillbeshapedbyourchoices:>Howwillcitiesdesigntheirstreetsandsidewalks?Howmuchspacewilltheygivetopedestriansandhow

muchtovehicles?Willcitiesexpandcar-freezones?

>Willcitiescreatesafe,ubiquitousbikenetworks?

>Willweenactroadpricingsufficienttoendcongestionandfundthesystemweneed?

>Willwebuildnewhigh-capacitytransitlines,andwilltheseservicesoperatefrequentlyenoughtomaketransit

usefulformorepeople?

>Willwelocatemoreemploymentandhomesneartransitandinotherplaceswherecommuterscanaccess

jobswithoutdriving?

>WhattypeofregulationswillwecreatetomanageAVsandprivatemobilityprovidersandprovidepublic

benefits?

>Willwebeabletoreducethecapitalcostsofinfrastructureprojects?

FourPossibleScenariosforTransportation

People-Oriented

Design

Auto-Oriented

Design

LowPublic

Investment

HighPublic

Investment

Microtransit, AVs and personal

mobility proliferate. Quality

services are oriented toward

demand but not necessarily

access, causing inequities.

Some infrastructure, buses and

rail are privately owned.

Twentieth-century trends

continue. People depend on

private cars, and public systems

have limited reach. Congestion

gets worse. Mobility decreases

for most people.

A high-quality regional public

transit network, effective

use of technology and active

management of transportation

systems provide high mobility

and access for everyone who

needs it. Streets and new

development are oriented

toward a convenient system of

walking and transit.

A high-mobility, low-livability

scenario: Investment in

highway management, express

lanes, express bus networks,

shared cars and transit

increases. People make the

majority of trips in vehicles.

Walking and transit are not

feasible or affordable for most.

5SPUR,The Caltrain Corridor Vision Plan,2017,https://www.spur.org/publications/spur-report/2017-02-23/caltrain-corridor-vision-plan;SPUR,Designing the Bay Area’s Second Transbay Rail Crossing,2016,https://www.spur.

org/publications/white-paper/2016-02-10/designing-bay-areas-second-transbay-rail-crossing;andotherSPURreportsavailableathttps://www.spur.org/policy-area/transportation

20 21

PhysicalForm

ThephysicalformoftheBayArea’scitieswaslargelyshapedduringtwotimeperiods.Thefirstwasinthe19th

andearly20thcenturies,whentheextensionofprivatelyownedtransitlinesservedasthemajorcatalystof

growth.Theresultingtowns—linkedbyrail,streetcarsandferries—werecompactandwalkablebynecessity.

ThesecondcameafterWorldWarII,whenfederalhousingpolicy,theGIBill,theinterstatehighwaysystemand

aboomingeconomypushedsuburbandevelopmentintothefarmlandsouth,eastandnorthoftheBay.Housing

wasphysicallyseparatedfromretailcentersandoffices.Newtypesofneighborhoods—linkedbyhighwaysand

furnishedwithampleparking—requiredacartogetaround.Sobeganashifttowarddependenceondriving

thatstilldefinestheBayArea.

In1930,whentheBayArealargelystoppedproducingwalkableurbanneighborhoods,theregion’s

populationwasapproximately1.5million.Thatnumberhassincegrownbymorethan6millionpeople,which

meansthattodaythevastmajorityofresidentsliveincar-orientedareasdevelopedafterthewar.

Overthedecades,theenvironmentalmovementhaslargelysucceededinstoppinggreenfielddevelopment,

protectingfarmsandopenspacesandlimitingcar-orientedsuburbansprawl.Butatthesametime,wehave

failedtoenablenewconstructionwithinexistingcitiesatanywherenearsufficientscale.Theresultisachronic

undersupplyofhousing,whichhasledtothecatastropheofBayAreahousingcosts.

Whateverwedotoaddressthehousingshortagewillhavebigimpactsonthephysicalformourbuilt

environmenttakes.Eitherwewillsprawloutwardorwewillacceptsignificantamountsofnewhousingin

existingcommunities—orwewilldosomecombinationofboth.

Thissectionthinksthroughtwocriticaluncertaintiesforphysicalform:

1.Howmuchdevelopmentwillweaccommodateinexistingneighborhoods?

2.Howmuchsprawlwillweallow?

Howmuchdevelopmentwillweaccommodateinexistingneighborhoods? LikemostoldercitiesintheUnitedStates,OaklandandSanFranciscoexperiencedapopulationdeclinein

the1950sand’60sasthesuburbsgrew.Butbythe1980s,demandforwalkableurbanneighborhoodsbeganto

outstriptheiravailabilityintheregion,leadingtoincreasinglyhigherpricesinthoseareas.

Infilldevelopment—buildingonemptyorunderusedsitesinexistingneighborhoods—isawaytogivemore

peoplethechancetoliveintheBayArea’smostdesirableneighborhoods.Infillcanalsoaddshopsandservices

toneighborhoodsthatdon’thavethem,makinglow-densitysuburbsmorecompact,walkableandappealing.

ButtheBayAreahasahistoryofpreventingthiskindofgrowth.Theenvironmentalconservationeffortswe

arejustifiablyproudof—savingtheBay,protectingsignaturelandscapesandhabitatlikeMarin’soceanbluffs

andSanMateo’sredwoodforests—werenevercoupledwithacommitmenttoaccommodategrowthinthe

region’score.Oppositionstogrowthwithincityboundariesledtochangesinzoningandbuildingregulations

thatnowlimittheamountofnewconstructionallowed.Asaresult,housinghasbecomeascarceresource

andpriceshaveincreaseddramaticallythroughouttheregion.Desirableurbanneighborhoodshavebecome

extremelyexpensive,andevenformerlymiddle-classsuburbslikeSanLeandro,RedwoodCityandNovatoare

nowoutofreachformany.Manyworkingandmiddle-classpeoplehavebeenpushedtotheedgesoftheBay

Areaorhavelefttheregionformoreaffordableplaces.Thishasresultedinamajordemographicchangeincities

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likeSanFrancisco,OaklandandBerkeley,withasignificantdeclineinAfrican-Americanresidents.

Changingthiscycleoflimitedgrowth,highpricesanddisplacementwillrequiredramaticchangestolocal

andstateplanninglawstomakenewdevelopmenteasiertobuild.Thepolicytoolstoenableinfilldevelopment

arewell-understood:Increaseallowablebuildingheightsanddensities,eliminateminimumparkingrequirements,

enablesmall-scalebuildingstobereplacedbyhigher-densitybuildings,createstraightforwardapproval

processesandconductcarefulplanningtoensurecompleteneighborhoods.Makingthesechangesissimplya

matteroffindingthepoliticalwilltoact.

FIGURE 5

TherateofurbanexpansionintheBayAreahasdroppedsignificantly.ExpansionofurbanizedlandintheSanJose-SanFrancisco-OaklandCombinedStatisticalArea(CSA),bydecade

Howmuchsprawlwillweallow?Likemostadvocatesofgoodplanning,SPURhaslongarguedthatnewdevelopmentshouldbebuiltin

infilllocationsinsteadofassprawl.Theregion’sopenspacenetworkrepresentsoneofCalifornia’sgreat

environmentalvictories.

Butstrictlyfromtheperspectiveofhousingcosts,addingtothesupplyofhousingwouldbehelpful

regardlessofwherethenewhousinggoes.TheBayAreacouldchoosetoenablemoregreenfielddevelopment,

eitherbyincrementallyexpandingurbangrowthboundariesorbycreatingentirelynewcitiesandtowns,anidea

thatwasoncecommonintheUnitedStates.

It’simportanttorememberthatagreatdealofdevelopmentistakingplacejustoutsidetheboundariesof

ourofficialnine-countyregion.ThespilloverofBayAreaworkerswhoarenotabletofindhomesintheregion

hasresultedinmorelow-densitydevelopmentinplaceslikeTracy,StocktonandModesto.Weshouldfacethis

regionalpatternhonestlyaswethinkaboutscenariosforthefuture.

In the last few decades, very little

new land has been developed within

the San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland

area. This is an environmental

success story — except that very

little development has taken place

within the existing urbanized

footprint either, putting enormous

pressure on the cost of housing.

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22 23

Assumptionsacrossallscenarios:>TheBayAreaislikelytocontinuetoaddpopulationandjobs,althoughtheexactnumbersofbothare

uncertain.

>Manypeoplewillcontinuetowanttoliveinareasthatareclosetogoodjobsandhavetransportationoptions.

Uncertaintiesthatwedonotcontrol:>Willtherealestateindustrybeabletocreatenewneighborhoodsornewtownsthatarewalkableand

compact?

>Howwillautonomousvehiclesreshapepassengertransportation?Willpeoplestillownpersonalvehiclesthat

needtobeaccommodatedincities?WillAVsencouragepeopletolivefurtherawayfromtheregion’score?

>Willshoppingmallsandotherretailspacesremainorgoaway,creatinganewsetofopportunitiesforinfillata

largescale?

>WilltherebedemandtoliveindowntownsoutsideoftheBayArea(suchasdowntownStocktonandFresno),

wherethehousingmarketisweaker?

Outcomesthatwillbeshapedbyourchoices:>Howmuchpopulationgrowthwillwechoosetoaccommodate?

>Willweallowexistingsingle-familyneighborhoodstobecomedenserovertime?

>Willwecreatehigh-densityzonesaroundregionalrailstationsandaddnewtransitservice?

>Willweputinplacestrongerlandprotectionmeasuresonexistingopenspaceandagriculturallands,

particularlyintheCentralValley?

HighInfill

LowInfill

HighSprawl LowSprawl

New development both

inside and outside existing

urban areas gives people lots

of options, making this the

most affordable scenario.

But the impacts of sprawl on

congestion, air pollution and

open space introduce new

problems.

More and more households are

pushed to the urban edge and

to fast-growing communities

in the Central Valley. The

single-family home remains

the dominant form of new

housing. Quality of life and

environmental health erode

as more people face longer

commutes to access affordable

homes.

Real estate prices stabilize

and the region becomes

more affordable. Urban

neighborhoods welcome more

people without displacing

current residents. Existing

suburbs become denser,

helping relieve the pressure

on central cities. Growth

boundaries preserve open

space and farms.

Restrictions on development in

all areas lead to extremely high

housing prices. Large numbers

of people are forced to leave

the region and, in many cases,

the state.

FourPossibleScenariosforPhysicalForm

25

ThefutureoftheBayAreawillinpartbeshapedbyenvironmentalandpoliticalforcesbeyondtheregion’s

control.ThesearesomeofthekeyforcesthatSPURbelieveswillbeimportant.

ClimateChange:Howsevereandhowrapidwillsealevelriseandotherimpactsbe?

AllfuturescenarioshavetoplanfortheimpactsofglobalclimatechangeontheBayArea.Theclimateisalready

changinginmeasurableways—includingrisingsealevels,strongerstorms,extremeheat,biggerandmore

frequentfires,andimpactstowatersupply—andfutureescalationofthesetrendsisnowunstoppable.Even

ifwestoppedproducinggreenhousegasestomorrow,thehighconcentrationofcarbondioxidealreadyinthe

atmospherewillcontinuetocauseclimatechange.Asaresult,wemustanticipateitsinevitableeffects.

FIGURE 6

Climatechangeisnowunstoppable.

Whilethereisgreatuncertaintyaboutthepaceorextentofclimatechange—largelybecauseitdependson

howquicklypeoplestopgeneratinggreenhousegasemissions—weknowthattheimpactswillbesevere.

Sealevelriserepresentsaparticularlyexistentialthreattocoastalcitiesaroundtheworld.Likeeveryurban

coastalregiononearth,theBayAreawillfacechoicesaboutwhereandhowweadaptphysically.Wecould

buildmoreandhigherleveesandseawalls,althougheventuallythiswillleaveuslivingbelowsealevel,withthe

potentialforcatastropheifleveesfail,asinNewOrleans.

Wecouldbuildhigher-densitydevelopmentonhigherground,retreatingfromlow-lyingland.Today,itseems

unlikelythatwewouldevergiveupopenspaceinthehillstoaccommodatehousingorbewillingtocreatenew

developmentonthewateritself—butculturalnormscouldchange.

Ascientificconsensusholdsthatwemustrestoresomeofthewetlandsthatonceprotectedlandaroundthe

Bayfromfloodingwhileprovidinghabitatfortheregion’srichbiodiversity.Butsuchanambitiousprojecthasnot

Even if we stopped producing

greenhouse gases tomorrow, the

high concentration of carbon

dioxide already in the atmosphere

from historic emissions will cause

the climate to continue changing.

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2.ExternalForces

Magnitude

Time to stabilize

Best-case scenario: CO2 emissions peak in next 100 years

Today 100 years 1,000 years

Sea level rise due to ice melting: several millennia

Sea level rise due to thermal expansion:centuries to millennia

Temperature:a few centuries

CO2 in atmosphere:100 to 300 years

26 27

FIGURE 7

TheBayAreaislikelytoexperienceamajorearthquakeinthenext25years.Probabilityofanearthquakeof6.7magnitudeorhigherononeoftheregion’smajorfaultlines

There’s a 72 percent chance the Bay

Area will experience an earthquake with

a magnitude of 6.7 or higher by 2043.

This probability includes the well-known

major plate-boundary faults (shown),

lesser-known faults and unknown faults.

SPURhasworkedoverthepastdecadetodefineperformancestandardsfordifferenttypesofbuildingsand

infrastructure,identifyhowtohelpresidentssafelyrecoverfromanearthquakeandrecommendstrategiesto

rebuildtransportationsystemsandplanforlanduseafterthedisaster.9Manyoftheserecommendationswere

developedforSanFranciscobutcanandshouldbeappliedtotheothercitiesoftheBayArea.Citiesthroughout

theregionmustturntheirattentiontostrengtheninggovernance,findingfunding,assessingvulnerabilityand

prioritizingseismicretrofitstoimproveresilienceinadvanceofthisforeseeabledisaster.

Howpreparedwearewilldeterminetheregion’scapacitytosurviveandrecoverwhenanearthquakestrikes.

NapaCounty

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MarinCounty

SolanoCounty

San MateoCounty

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16%

26%

6%

beenfullyfunded,anditmaynotbefullyimplementedintimetosaveusandBay-dependentspeciesfromrising

sealevels.

TheBayArea’swatersupply—indeed,mostofCalifornia’s—isdependentonawaterconveyancesystem

builtacenturyagotomoveSierrasnowmelttocoastalcities.7Whileinvestmentshavebeenmadetoshore

upitsseismicresilience,thesystemisoversubscribedbetweenfarms,theenvironmentandgrowingcities.It’s

alsosubjecttodroughteveryyearasthestate’srainfallandsnowpackgrowincreasinglyvariablewithclimate

change.TheBayAreahassucceededinconservingwateroverthelastgeneration,butmoremustbedoneto

ensurethatthepopulationof2070hasaclimate-resilientandsustainablewatersupply.

Howmuchweprepareforclimatechangewillinlargepartimpacttheseverityofitseffects.

Earthquakes:Whenandhowhardwillthe“BigOne”hit?

Thereisa72percentlikelihoodofamajorquake(6.7magnitudeorgreater)ononeoftheregion’sfaultswithin

thenext25years.Aneventthislargecouldcausethousandsofinjuriesanddeaths,displacehundredsof

thousandsofhouseholdsandtriggerlossesinthehundredsofbillionsofdollars.8Manyofthelifelinesystems

thatservetheregion—suchaswater,sewer,gas,electricity,internetservice,roadsandrailnetworks—areinthe

processofupgradingtheirinfrastructureforseismicresilience,butinaslowandpiecemealway.Certaintypesof

olderhousingandmixed-usebuildingsaredisproportionatelyvulnerabletocollapsinginearthquakesandmust

beretrofittedtoensureoccupantsafety.Butthereisnoconsistentregionalpolicyrequiringolderbuildingsand

infrastructuresystemstobecomeresilienttoearthquakes,andthereisnotmuchmoneyreadilyavailabletomake

ithappen.Inanydisaster,low-incomeandmarginalizedcommunitiesaremostvulnerabletodisplacementand

thedifficultiesofrecoveringfromashock.

Theimportanceofpreparingforanearthquakebeforeithappensisnotjustamatterofpreventingdamage,

injuryandlossoflife.Itisalsoaboutputtingpoliciesandtoolsinplacenowthatwillhelpneighborhoods,

institutionsandbusinessesrecoverasquicklyaspossibleaftertheevent.Ifrecoveryisnotrapid,weriskthekind

ofpopulationexodusthatNewOrleansexperiencedfollowingHurricaneKatrina.

9SeetheseriesofreportsinSPUR’sResilientCityinitiative,http://www.spur.org/

featured-project/resilient-city

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7SPUR,Future-Proof Water, 2013,http://www.spur.org/publications/spur-report/2013-03-18/future-proof-water

8SPUR,Defining Resilience,2009,http://www.spur.org/publications/spur-report/2009-02-01/defining-resilience

28 29

TheFederalGovernment:WillWashingtonmakedecisionsthatsupportorweakentheBayArea?

Theroleofthefederalgovernmentisbothaconstantandawildcard.

LikeallU.S.metropolitanregions,theBayAreahasbeenshapedbypolicydecisionsmadeatthenational

level.Raciallybiasedhome-lendingprograms,theconstructionandexpansionofthehighwaysystem,subsidized

accesstoaffordablefloodinsurance,thefundingofdisasterrecoveryeffortsandmanyotherdecisionshave

shapedourphysicalandsocialrealities.Butinthelast30years,thestoryofthefederalgovernment’srolein

urbanpolicyhasbeenlargelyoneofabsence.Washingtonhasdramaticallyreducedfundingforaffordable

housingandtransportationacrossthecountryand,withafewnotableexceptions,hasbeenlargelyabsentfrom

settingpolicyforadaptingtoclimatechangeoreconomicrestructuring.

Whilethefederalgovernment’sroleinurbanpolicyandphysicaldevelopmenthasdeclined,otherfederal

policiesstillholdenormousinfluenceovermanyrealmsoflifeintheBayArea—including,immigration,taxation,

trade,entitlementprograms,fiscalandmonetarypolicy,foreignpolicyandhealthcare.

ThedirectionthefederalgovernmenttakesisoneofthebigwildcardsaffectingtheBayAreabetweennow

and2070.Thefederalgovernmentcouldbecomemoresupportiveofcities,eitherthrougharevivedurbanpolicy

(whichseemslesslikely)orthroughimmigration,taxationandtradepoliciesthatenablecitiestobesuccessful

(whichseemsmorepossible).

Ifthefederalgovernmentcontinuestowithdrawfromprovidingthingsthatcitiesneed,suchas

infrastructureinvestment,citiesandstateswillhavetoself-fundtotakecareoftheirownneeds.Giventherural

biasoftheSenate,thischallengecouldbeconsiderable:Ifthefederalgovernmentmainlyworkstoextract

wealthfromcitiestosendtoruralvotingblocs,itwillbemuchharderforurbanareastoself-taxtomakeupfor

decliningfederalinvestment.

It’salsopossiblethattherecouldbechangestothefederalstructureoftheUnitedStates,perhapsincluding

a“devolution”ofresponsibilitytothestates,assomeonboththeleftandtherighthaveadvocated.Growing

polarizationbetween“RedAmerica”and“BlueAmerica”couldleadtoincreaseddevolutionasacompromiseto

reducetensionsatthenationallevel.

TheBayAreaisnotlargeenoughtoinfluencethedirectionofthefederalgovernment,butouroptionswill

begreatlyaffectedbyitsorientation.

Net Interest6%

Defense15%

Non-Defense

16%

Other15%

Medicaid9%

Medicare15%

Social

MandatorySpending

DiscretionarySpending

Security24%

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Mostofthefederalbudgetisdevotedtomandatoryspendingonexistingprograms.2016U.S.FederalBudget

Just 16 percent of the federal

budget is available for domestic

discretionary priorities.

3130

WhatmightlifeintheBayAreabelikeintheyear2070?Thefollowingscenariosare“mythsofthefuture”—

storiesthatillustratehowthecriticaluncertaintiesexploredearlierinthisreportcouldinterplaywiththechoices

wemakeasasociety.Envisioningasetofdifferentbutplausiblefuturescanhelpusprepareforawiderange

ofpossibilitiesandshowushowthecollectivechoiceswemaketodaycouldplayoutovertimeiftakentotheir

logicalconclusions.

Thischapterorganizesthepossibilitiesintotwocriticalquestions,resultinginfourpotentialscenariosforthe

future:

1.Willoureraofeconomicprosperitycontinue,orwillitdecline?

2.WillwemaketheBayAreamoresociallyinclusive,orwillweallowexclusiontogrowworse?

SocialInclusion

SocialExclusion

EconomicDecline

EconomicProsperity

RustBeltWest

BunkerBayArea

ANewSocialCompact

GatedUtopia

FourPossibleScenariosfortheBayAreain20703.

FutureScenarios

32 33

GatedUtopia

EconomicProsperity+SocialExclusionThe Bay Area of 2070 has continued to be an innovation center. A great lifestyle is available — but only for those

who can afford it.

Inthisscenario,lifeintheBayAreaisgood.Butourcollectivechoicenottoexpandthehousingsupply,norto

makeinvestmentsinotherpublicformsofsocialsupport,haspushedeveryoneexceptthewealthyoutofthe

region.

Thecoreoftheregionisaninternationalmetropolisthatappealstotheglobalelite.Manyservicejobs

havebeenautomated,sotherearefewerserviceworkersthanthereoncewereandmostoftheworking-class

populationhasmovedelsewheretofindwork.

Asaresult,theBayAreahasbecomearacially,economicallyandculturallyhomogenousregion,havinglost

itsAfrican-Americanpopulationandmostimmigrantcommunities.Itisnotaplaceforworking-andmiddle-class

familiestofindhousingtheycanafford.

Publictransitishigh-qualityinurbandowntowns,butmostresidentsstilltakeprivatetransit,usuallyin

theformofsmallautonomousvehiclessummonedwithanapp.Travelisexpensivebecauseofpermanent

congestionpricing,butcongestionhaslargelybeensolvedinthecoreoftheregion.

BayAreaschoolsaregood,withthedistinctionbetweenpublicandprivateschoolshavingblurredlongago.

Everyoneherecangetagreateducation,buteveryonewhoiseducatedhereisalreadywell-off.

Outsidethecoreoftheregion,it’sadifferentstory.Serviceworkersendurelong,crowdedcommutesfrom

asprawlingsupercityinthenorthernSanJoaquinValleythatencompassestheformerlyseparatecitiesofTracy,

Stockton,MantecaandModesto.Amongitsneighborhoodsofinexpensivesingle-familyhomes,thesupercity

includesanumberofshantytownsandtentcities.

Whenasevereearthquakehits,thewealthycitiesinthecoreoftheregionarepreparedandrebound,but

damageandlossoflifehithardattheurbanedge.Corelocationsaresimilarlyprotectedfromsealevelrise,but

theimpactsofclimatechangehavealongreach:Continuallyfloodedinfrastructureattheperipheryprevents

serviceworkersfromaccessingjobs,furtherdrivinguplaborcostsinthecore.

HowWeGotHereTheGatedUtopiadidnotemergeeasily.Ittookgreatefforttocleanupourcities,preserveolderbuildingsand

overcomeresistancetohightaxesinordertofinancepristineparksandpublicspaces.Ourcivicandbusiness

leaderstakejustifiableprideintheinvestmentswemadeinpublicspaces,schoolsandmuseums.

Themostimportantdecisionwemadewastoallowaminorityofpeoplewithinfluenceandmoneytosimply

takecareofthemselves.Theysaid,“Howcanwebeexpectedtosolvepovertyandinequalitywhentheproblems

aresogreat?Ourjobistomakethisplacethebestitcanbeforthepeoplelikeuswholivehere.Wecannotdo

morethanthat.”

Agenerationofmiddle-classpeoplebecamemultimillionairessimplythroughtheirluckinhavingbought

housesattherighttime.Tomakesuretheyhungontotheirwealth,theyexercisedtheirpowertopreventnew

housingfrombeingbuilt,andtheyelectedleaderswhoopposednewhousingconstruction.

34 35

BunkerBayArea

EconomicDecline+SocialExclusionThe Bay Area of 2070 has balkanized into factions marked by extreme inequality and segregation. Trust between

people is low and resources are scarce, making this a high-stress, low-satisfaction way of life for all.

TheBayAreahasbecomeaplaceofdecliningeconomicopportunity.Smallpocketsofwealthinhighly

manicured,highlyprotectedneighborhoodsaresurroundedbyslums—apatternofextremespreviouslyseen

mostoftenindevelopingnations.

Thereislittletonosocialtrustorcohesion.Mostpeopledonotknowanyonewhoisofadifferentclass.

Therearevirtuallynopathwaysleadingoutofpoverty.Manylow-incomepeopleworkintheinformaleconomy

ofillegalproductsandservices.

Alargeprivate-securityindustryprotectsthewealthy;othersmustfendforthemselves.Underfundedpolice

forcescan’tkeepupwithcrimeandcivilunrest.Corruptioniscommon,asareviolentcrackdownsinrestive

districts.Teachersarearmed.

Thedominantarchitecturalformisthegatedcommunity.Newconstructionincludesfortress-likefeaturesby

default,andthosewholiveinolderneighborhoodsretrofittheexistingurbanfabricwithwalls,gatesandbarred

windows.

Parkshavebecomeshantytowns,andpublicservicesareeithernonexistentorhighlydysfunctional.

Anextremedigitaldividehascreatedseparatetransportationsystems.Elevatedautonomoustransitlines

thatrunalongconvertedfreewaysarecarefullyprotectedandexpensivetouse.Electricpassengerdrones

moveconstantlyoverhead,carryingthewealthiestresidents.Meanwhile,thepoorestresidentsrelyonoutdated

technologies,includinggasoline-powered“adbuses”coveredinbillboardsandvideoscreens,whichhelpfund

theiroperation.

PeoplecomparetheBayAreatoSãoPaulo,MexicoCityandothermajorLatinAmericancitieswherethe

poorestandtherichestinhabitdistinctworldsrightontopofoneanother..

HowWeGotHereOurgradualslideintoBunkerBayAreastemmedfromaculturalandpoliticalshiftawayfromcollectiveproblem-

solvingtowardanemphasisonpersonalliberty.Thefirstsignsofthischangeemergedwhenourcitieswere

overwhelmedbyhomelessness.Whenoursystemsforprovidinghelpfailedtokeepupwiththeneed,we

eventuallygaveup.

Asourfocusturnedinward,inequalitymetastasized.Moreandmoreoftheregion’swealthendedupina

smallnumberofhands.Theshiftwasmaskedforatimebyoveralleconomicgrowth,buteventuallytherewere

simplymanymorepeopleinpovertythannot.Webegantolosefaiththateveryonewasinittogether.Withouta

senseofsharedfate,weabandonedthepublicrealm.

Weallowedthosewithmoneytocontrolpolitics,whichledtolowertaxesandreducedthecapacityofthe

publicsector.Wedidn’tretrainpeoplefornewjobsorcreatethesocialsafetynetneededtokeepupwiththe

paceofeconomicrestructuring.

Wecametobelievethatthepiewasnotbigenoughforeveryone.Weacceptedfearasawayoflife.

36 37

RustBeltWest

EconomicDecline+SocialInclusionAnti-business sentiment has gained ascendency in the Bay Area of 2070, causing companies to leave and the

economy to founder. Those who remain fashion an alternative economy but struggle to get their basic needs met.

Withtheadmirablegoalsofsupportinglow-incomeworkersandbuildinginclusion,ouractivistcommunities

tookonbigbusiness—andwon.Thissignificantculturalshifthasresultedinastrongsenseofsocialsolidarity,

butasaresultresourceshavedwindledandqualityoflifehassuffered.Manyresidentsexperienceaninternal

conflict:Theysupportthevaluesunderlyingthenewpoliciesbuthavegrowncynicalabouttherealitiesentailed

inlivingwithless.

WhiletheBayAreaactivelyrestrictedbusinesses,otherregionswerecourtingthem.SiliconValleyfirmshave

movedtoSeattle,NewYork,Austin,Shanghai,TorontoandBerlin.Wehavehighunemploymentandlittletono

newjobcreation.TheBayAreaisnolongerwherethemosthighlyeducatedworkerschoosetomakealiving;

we’vebecomesomewhatofaneconomicbackwater.AsinItaly,ourpopulationgrowsolderasyoungerpeople

leavetofindopportunityelsewhere.

Ashrinkingtaxbasehasledtocontinualfailuresofthepensionsystemandongoinglayoffs.Public-sector

laborunionsspendmostoftheirtimefightingarearguardactionagainstfurtherjobloss.Ourscarcepublic

resourcesarepulledtowardanoverburdenedandpoliticallyuntouchablesocialsafetynet.Thismeanspeople

payveryhightaxesbutdon’tgetverymuchinexchange.Weareunabletosupporthighlevelsofinvestmentin

transit,education,infrastructure,servicesandthepublicrealm.Classroomsareovercrowded,BARThasstopped

runningandgarbagecollectionhappenseverythreeweeks.

Intheabsenceofcapital,wehavetogetcreative.Withoutnewcomputersandtextbooks,teachershave

developedhands-oncurriculumaroundurbanfarmingandcarpentry.Peopledon’tneedtotravelasfaroras

oftenastheyusedto,sotransportationserviceshavebecomemorelocal:Co-opsrunsolar-poweredjitneys

andprovideridesonhand-builtbikes,scootersandpedicabs.Otherneedscan’tbemetaseasily.Hospitalsare

understaffed,andexpensivemedicationsarehardtocomeby.There’sawaitinglistfornon-emergencysurgeries.

ThephysicalformoftheBayAreahasn’tchangedmuch.There’sverylittlenewbuilding,butit’snotneeded

becauseourjobsandpopulationarenotgrowing.Therearealotofvacantbuildings,andevensomeofourmost

valuablehistoricresourcesarestartingtodeteriorate.

Thedesiretopreparefordisasterisstrong,butfundingisneveradequate.Afteranearthquake,evenmajor

infrastructuregoesunrepaired:Abandonedbuildings,freewaysandbridgesbecomeprominentfeaturesofthe

regionallandscape.Assealevelsriseandthepopulationdeclines,chronicallyfloodedareasareabandoned.

HowWeGotHereAsthehomeoftheAmericanleft,theBayAreabecameincreasinglyradicalized.Overtime,aseriesofnew

regulationsmadeitincreasinglydifficultforbusinessestofunction.Ataxonstockoptionswassosignificant

thatstartupshadtoleavetheregionbeforetheycouldgopublic.Affordablehousingrequirementsbecame

soonerousthatdeveloperscouldnolongerraisetheinvestmentcapitalneededtobuild.Aselectedleaders

competedwitheachothertoshowwhowasthemostprogressive,importantprotectionsforworkersweretaken

toofar:Minimumwageeventuallygrewto$75perhour.Localhirelawsmadeithardtobringinworkersfrom

aroundtheworld,eventuallyregulatingwagesandrestrictingwhocouldgetfired.

Theresultwasaviciouscycle:Ascompaniesleft,therewerenobusinessleaderstocontestthepolicy

choices,whichovertimebecamemoreandmoreextreme.

38 39

ANewSocialCompact

EconomicProsperity+SocialInclusionAn emphasis on economic growth coupled with a renewed faith in our ability to address collective challenges has

driven significant progress toward making the Bay Area of 2070 a place of opportunity for everyone.

Inthisscenario,theBayAreahasembracedthebeliefthatwecangrowthepieanddivideitmoreequally.This

principleofsharedprosperityhasledtohighlevelsofinvestmentinsocialhousing,publictransit,educationand

otherfoundationsofanequitablesociety.

Fastandreliabletransit,managedregionwidebyasinglerailandtransitauthority,providesthebackboneof

ourtransportationsystem,connectingtothelower-densitypartsoftheregionviasharedautonomousvehicles,

ebikesandnewformsofpersonaltransportation.Becauseweworkedtobridgethedigitaldivide,theseservices

areavailabletoeveryone.

Ourcommunitiesaredesignedtoencouragewalkingandbiking.Manyneighborhoodshavecar-free

commercialblockslikethosefoundinEuropeancities.Autonomousvehiclesanddronesdeliversomeofour

goods,butthesidewalksareforpeople.

Wewelcomenewpeopleandnewideas,whichhasallowedadynamiceconomytoprosper.Overtime,some

industrieshavegoneaway,butnewjobskeepemergingaswecontinueinventingnewthings.

Wehaveeliminatedfossilfuelsfromourhomes,vehiclesandindustries.Innovationinthisareageneratesa

significantexportindustry;weteachothercitiesandregionsaroundtheworldhowtobuildhigh-performance

energyandtransportationsystems,thesamewaytheDutchexporttheirwatermanagementexpertise.

We’veembracedinfillhousingandsmallerlivingspaces,bothofwhichallowmorepeopletoaffordlifein

theirneighborhoodsofchoice.We’vealsopioneeredinnovationsinfactory-builthousing,makingnewhomes

fasterandlessexpensivetobuild.Housinginnewplaceshasavoidedthepitfallsoftraditionalsuburbansprawl:

Transithasexpandedtosupportwell-planned,walkable,bikeablenewcities.

TheBayAreaisknownasaplaceofupwardsocialmobilityandopportunity.Therearelotsofjobs,and

wefillmanyofthemlocallythroughourhigh-qualitypublicschoolsandtechtrainingprograms.Aregionwide

minimumwagemeanspeoplewhoworkinlocal-servingindustriesearnenoughtoliveon.Anyonewithafull-

timejobcanaffordlifeintheBay,evenifit’snotalwaysluxurious.

HowWeGotHereTheresidentsoftheBayAreahadtomakesomerealsacrificestobringaboutthisoutcome.Realizingthat

immigrationpoliticsweredeeplyrelatedtohousingpolitics,voterschangedcourseonhousingpolicy,reversing

30yearsofneighborhoodprotectionismandallowingsignificantnewconstruction.

Residentsalsovotedtoraisetaxesonthemselvesrepeatedlyinordertofundsocialhousing,publicschools,

publictransitandotherprogramsthathelpedbringaboutahighqualityoflifeforpeopleregardlessoftheir

incomelevel.

Peoplewhohadbecomewealthyinbusinessweregenerousasphilanthropistsandinvestedheavilyinthe

region.Andbusinessesworkedtodevelopanewemploymentbargainthattranslatedtheworkerprotections

ofthepost-WorldWarIIeraintoamodern,flexibleformwithportablebenefits,highinvestmentintrainingand

highwages.

Asaresult,theBayAreapopulationismuchlargerthanpeopleeverimaginedwaspossible.Itservesasa

modelofwhatasustainable,prosperous,sociallyjustmetropoliscanlooklike.

40 41

ConclusionWhichfuturescenarioismostlikelytoplayoutintheBayArea?Italldependsonthecollectivechoicesthat

thosewholiveandworkheremakeinthecomingyears.

Ourregiontodayhassomuchgoingforit:Adiverseandopenculturethatembracesmanykindsof

innovation.Ahighlyeducatedpopulation.Anetworkofwalkableurbanneighborhoodsandfineoldbuildings.

Beautifulnaturalsceneryandiconiclandmarksthatmakeitfamousaroundtheworld.And,ofcourse,apowerful

economicenginethatgeneratesnewideas,newcompaniesandnewjobswithseeminglylimitlesspotential.

ButthetremendoussuccessoftheBayAreaeconomyhashadunintendedconsequences.Wehavenot

growntheregion’sphysicalform—especiallyhousingstockandtransportationcapacity—atthesamepacewe

havegrownoureconomy.Highhousingcostsarepushingpeopletotheedgesoftheregionandcommutesare

becominguntenable.Homelessnessisoverwhelmingpubliclifeandservices.Ifleftunaddressed,theseforces

couldtaketheregiondownapathofextremeinequalityand,eventually,economicdecline.

It’snottoolatetocorrectcourse,butdoingsorequiresustothinkdeeplyabouthowwegothere—the

decisions,chainsofeventsandvaluesthatledtoourcurrentsituation.Byexploringseveralpossiblefutures,we

canbetterunderstandtheoutcomesofthedecisionswemaketodayandusethatforesighttoshapeabetter

tomorrowforallofuswhocalltheregionhome.

Asitmovesforward,theSPURRegionalStrategywillapplythisexplorationoffuturescenariosto

researchinganddevelopingrecommendationsthatcansettheBayAreaonapathtoaneconomicallystrong,

sociallyjustandenvironmentallysustainablefuture.

SPUR

654 Mission StreetSan Francisco, CA 94105tel. 415.781.8726info@spur.org

76 South First StreetSan Jose, CA 95113tel. 408.638.0083infosj@spur.org

1544 BroadwayOakland CA, 94612tel. 510.827.1900infooakland@spur.org

SPUR promotes good planning and good government through research, education and advocacy.

We are a member-supported nonprofit organization. Join us.

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Ideas + action for a better city