Fire Effects Planning Framework PROPOSED Agenda Working session Richfield, UT 12/7-8/06 -Overview...

Fire Effects Planning FrameworkPROPOSED Agenda

Working sessionRichfield, UT 12/7-8/06

-Overview and orientation (powerpoint presentation)

- Gather/process/analyze data (working meeting)- fire behavior- fire effects- crosswalk creation

- Create Map Library (subsequent task by individual forest)

Extreme – 99%

High – 90%

Moderate – 80%

SpeciesSize/

StructureCrown fire potential

1st OrderFire Effects

Effect onwhitebark pine

Mapping Multiplier

Information Source

WB-only

Seed/sap 1, 2, or 3 HighUndesirable EffectsWB established but not reproducing yet

-1Tomback et al.

2001, FOFEM

All except seed/sap

1,2, or 3 HighDesirable Effectsrestore native fire

regime+1000

Tomback et al. 2001,

FOFEM

All other species mixes

All

2 or 3 HighHighly Desirable Effects provide

potential WB habitat+100

Keane, Arno

Pers. Comm.

1 Low or moderate

Desirable Effects +1Keane, Arno pers.

Com.

No Burn All None NoneNot Habitat

rock above 6500’-100 N/A

Fire Effects Planning Framework (FEPF)Fire Effects Planning Framework (FEPF)

Crosswalkfire behavior to fire effects on

values/objectives

3

Photograph by Steve Sutherland; 2 years post-fire

Extreme – 99%

High – 90%

Moderate – 80%

BITTERROOT NATIONAL FOREST

Fire Effects Planning Framework

2004 Fire Effects Map Library

• Fire Behavior

• Effects on Whitebark pine

• Effects on Lynx foraging habitat

Extreme – 99%

High – 90%

Moderate – 80%

Fire EffectsFire

BehaviorVegetative attributes Desirability

LandscapeDynamics

Simulation Models

Identify resources of interest

Identify associated vegetative attributes

Identify fire ecology

1

FlamMap 99th%

90th%

80th%

Based on FireFamilyPlus weather analysis for Energy Release Component

Modelfire behavior

2

Updatevegetative attributes

post-season

5

Create map library for - land, fuels, fire planning,

- AMR/WFU activities

4

Source

Fire Effects Planning

Framework

With the proper input the Fire Effects Planning Framework (FEPF) will give you information on whether a given ignition - will or will not meet a set of objectives.

NFDRS Plans - Useful for determining appropriate weather station, key thresholds, i.e. season ending/slowing events.

NF

DR

S P

lan in

put

Land Management Plan Objectives – Where all Forest Service unplanned ignition objectives come from..

LMP

Obj

ectiv

es

input

Local

Experience –

critical for

model

calibration

Local Experience

input

Will we meet

objectives with

this ignition?

Output

IGNITION

GIS Data – spatial

modeling

Input

GIS

Dat

a

Step 1: Gather data and Identify key conditions

Fire Weather * weather thresholds (FMP) * weather stations * fire behavior parameter for fire mgmt (ERC, BI, FL …)

Resource issues * current and desired condition * map-able attributes species/habitat relationship (wildlife) * fire ecology * fire behavior parameter for effects (ERC, BI, FL …)

GIS DATA SETS * Farsite set (topography, fuels, vegetation canopy fuels) * resource data layers

Weather data

FireFamilyPlus Farsite/FLAMMAP (.txt)

Seasonal %’sThreshold %’s80, 90, 99th%

.wnd, .wtr, .fms

Step 2: Model Fire Behavior

Fuels data (LANDFIRE)

Fuel ModelStand Height

Crown Bulk DensityCrown Base Height

Canopy Cover

PVTGROUP PVT GROUP NAME HT_GRP

1 Upper Subalpine Forest G1,G2

2 Lower Subalpine Forest - Mesic D3, E2

3 Lower Subalpine Forest - Xeric F1, F2

4 Upper Montane Forest - Mesic C2, D2

5 Upper Montane Forest - Xeric C1

6 Lower Montane Forest - Mesic B2, B3

7 Lower Montane Forest - Xeric A2, B1

8 Upper Subalpine Shrub - Herbaceous NF5

11 Lower Montane Shrub - Herbaceous NF1,NF2A, NF2, NF4

13 Agricultural XX1

14 Urban/Barren XX4

15 Water XX5

Vegetation/Imagery

Canopy Fuels Fuel ModelCrosswalk

Weather data

FireFamilyPlus Farsite/FLAMMAP (.txt)

Seasonal %’sThreshold %’s80, 90, 99th%

.wnd, .wtr, .fms

Step 2: Model Fire Behavior

Fuels data (LANDFIRE)

Fuel ModelStand Height

Crown Bulk DensityCrown Base Height

Canopy Cover

PVTGROUP PVT GROUP NAME HT_GRP

1 Upper Subalpine Forest G1,G2

2 Lower Subalpine Forest - Mesic D3, E2

3 Lower Subalpine Forest - Xeric F1, F2

4 Upper Montane Forest - Mesic C2, D2

5 Upper Montane Forest - Xeric C1

6 Lower Montane Forest - Mesic B2, B3

7 Lower Montane Forest - Xeric A2, B1

8 Upper Subalpine Shrub - Herbaceous NF5

11 Lower Montane Shrub - Herbaceous NF1,NF2A, NF2, NF4

13 Agricultural XX1

14 Urban/Barren XX4

15 Water XX5

Vegetation/Imagery

Canopy Fuels Fuel ModelCrosswalk

INPUTS OUTPUTS

Species/ Species Mix

Size/ Structure

Fire Sever

ity

0-14years

post-fire

15-39 years post-fire

40+years

post-fire

WB, DF, L, PP, LP, L-mixes, DF-mixes, PP-mixes

Single story Low -1 -1 -1

Single story Mixed 1 1 -10

Single or multi-story

High -1 10 10

Mixtures of DF, ES,AF, WB, LP, AL, L, GF




High -1 10 10

ES, GF,AL, C, QA, WH, MH, AF, CW



High -1 10 10

All forested Seed/sap High -1 10 10

Shrubs All Mixed or High

-10 1 1

No Burn 1 -10 -10

Non-stocked, non-forest, forbs, grasses

All Low, Mixed,

No Burn

-1 -1 -1

Unburnable, Agriculture, No Data

n/a All 0 0 0

1

2

3

1

2

3

2

3

3

2 or 3

0

0,1, or 2

0,1,2,or 3

FireBehavior

Ecological Fire Behavior

Fire effects on targetover time

Step 3: Merge to create Fire Effects Crosswalks

Physical habitat characteristics

Physical Fire Behavior

Illustrative only


Size/ Structure

Fire Sever

ity

0-14years

post-fire


40+years

post-fire





High -1 10 10





High -1 10 10




High -1 10 10



-10 1 1

No Burn 1 -10 -10


All Low, Mixed,

No Burn

-1 -1 -1


n/a All 0 0 0

1

2

3

1

2

3

2

3

3

2 or 3

0

0,1, or 2

0,1,2,or 3

FireBehavior






Illustrative only

Stored as set of rulesor as .txt file


Size/ Structure

Fire Sever

ity

0-14years

post-fire


40+years

post-fire





High -1 10 10





High -1 10 10




High -1 10 10



-10 1 1

No Burn 1 -10 -10


All Low, Mixed,

No Burn

-1 -1 -1


n/a All 0 0 0

1

2

3

1

2

3

2

3

3

2 or 3

0

0,1, or 2

0,1,2,or 3

FireBehavior






Illustrative only

Stored as set of rulesor as .txt file

FOFEMFVS-FFESIMPPLLEWHRMURMPublicationsExpert Systems

FlamMap

Crown Fire PotentialRate of SpreadFireline Intensity

Step 4a: Create Fire Behavior Library

99th%

90th%

80th%

Fire BehaviorLibrary

Step 4b: Create Fire Effects Library

Restoration/Fuels Lynx

99th%90th%80th%

Aquatics

Fire FighterSafety

Cavity Nester

Initial vegetation

Lynx habitat

Fire effectson

vegetation

Fire effectson

Lynx habitat

Fire EffectsLibrary

99th%90th%80th%

Uses: Set fuel treatment priorities

Uses: Model alternatives and future consequences

This example shows use of SIMPPLLE

FVS-FFE can also be used.

Incident Support

Maps are draft, and illustrative only

Uses: Go/NoGo(WFIP analyses)

cost containment

Quantify benefits or reductions in risk within

MMA

Consider potential benefits when determining

suppression strategy by flank

Uses: Map Library for Fire Planning

BITTERROOT NATIONAL FOREST

2004 Fire Effects Map Library

• Fire Behavior• Fire Effects

Fire Effects Planning FrameworkWorking session

Richfield, UT 12/7-8/06

FEPF website search on Fire Effects Planning Framework User’s Guide Bitterroot Map Library

Fire Behavior Examples Flammap (Bitterroot) Farsite (Dixie) FOFEM/ expert opinion (Yellowstone NP)

Resource Examples Lynx (Bitterroot) Ponderosa pine (Dixie) Aspen (Dixie) Whitebark pine (Bitterroot, Yellowstone)

Resources

http://leopold.wilderness.net/research/fprojects/fepf/

http://leopold.wilderness.net/research/fprojects/F005.htm

http://leopold.wilderness.net/research/fprojects/F005.htm

What does it really take to make this work?

• Resource Objectives (conf. call, meeting)

• Weather (station, time period)

• Vegetation data (local vs. LANDFIRE)

• Calibration (vegetation, fire behavior, fire effects)

Fire Effects Planning Framework PROPOSED Agenda Working session Richfield, UT 12/7-8/06 -Overview...

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